ICML 2026 论文列表

Evaluating conditional coverage remains one of the most persistent challenges in assessing the reliability of predictive systems. Although conformal methods can give guarantees on marginal coverage, no method can guarantee to produce sets with correct conditional coverage, leaving practitioners without a clear way to interpret local deviations. To overcome sample-inefficiency and overfitting issues of existing metrics, we cast conditional coverage estimation as a classification problem. Conditional coverage is violated if and only if some classifier can achieve lower risk than the target coverage. Through the choice of a (proper) loss function, the resulting risk difference gives a conservative estimate of natural miscoverage measures such as L1 and L2 distance, and can even separate the effects of over- and under-coverage, as well as handle non-constant target coverages. We call the resulting family of metrics excess risk of the target coverage (ERT). We show experimentally that the use of modern classifiers provides much higher statistical power than simple classifiers underlying established metrics like CovGap. Additionally, we use our metric to benchmark different conformal prediction methods. Finally, we release an open-source package for ERT as well as previous conditional coverage metrics. Together, these contributions provide a new lens for understanding, diagnosing, and improving the conditional reliability of predictive systems.

Conformal Prediction (CP) provides a statistical framework for uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets with coverage guarantees. While CP yields uncontrolled prediction set sizes, Backward Conformal Prediction (BCP) inverts this paradigm by enforcing a predefined upper bound on set size and estimating the resulting coverage guarantee. However, the looseness induced by Markov's inequality within the BCP framework causes a significant gap between the estimated coverage bound and the empirical coverage. In this work, we introduce ST-BCP, a novel method that introduces a data-dependent transformation of nonconformity scores to narrow the coverage gap. In particular, we develop a computable transformation and prove that it outperforms the baseline identity transformation. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, reducing the average coverage gap from 4.20\% to 1.12\% on common benchmarks.

Prediction-powered inference is a recent methodology for the safe use of black-box ML models to impute missing data, strengthening inference of statistical parameters. However, many applications require strong properties besides valid inference, such as privacy, robustness or validity under continuous distribution shifts; deriving prediction-powered methods with such guarantees is generally an arduous process, and has to be done case by case. In this paper, we resolve this issue by connecting prediction-powered inference with conformal prediction: by performing imputation through a calibrated set-predictor, we attain validity while achieving additional guarantees in a natural manner. We instantiate our procedure for the inference of means, Z- and M-estimation, as well as e-values and e-value-based procedures. Furthermore, in the case of e-values, ours is the first general prediction-powered procedure that operates off-line. We demonstrate these advantages by applying our method on private and time-series data. Both tasks are nontrivial within the standard prediction-powered framework but become natural under our method.

Standard Next-Token Prediction (NTP) supervises language models solely through discrete labels in the output logit space. We argue that this sparse, one-hot supervision leaves the latent representation space under-constrained, allowing hidden states to drift into degenerate and anisotropic configurations that limit generalization. To address this issue, we propose Next Implicit Token Prediction (NITP), which augments discrete prediction with dense, continuous supervision directly in the representation space. NITP requires the model to predict the implicit semantic content of the next token, using shallow-layer representations from the same model as stable self-supervised targets. Theoretically, we show that NITP regularizes the optimization landscape by mitigating under-constrained degrees of freedom and enforcing a compact, structured representation geometry. Empirically, across dense and MoE models ranging from 0.5B to 9B parameters, NITP consistently {improves downstream performance with negligible computational overhead}. Notably, on the 9B MoE model, NITP achieves a 5.7\% absolute improvement on MMLU-Pro, along with gains of 6.4\% on C3 and 4.3\% on CommonsenseQA, with $\sim$2\% additional training FLOPs and no additional inference cost. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/aHapBean/NITP.

Existing evaluations of conformal prediction, such as prediction efficiency and test-conditional coverage, are defined in expectation over the calibration data. In practice, when only one calibration set of limited size is available, prediction sets often exhibit high variability in size, especially for methods with localization. We formalize this concern as set stability, defined as the variance of the conditional expectation of the set size given the calibration data. To improve stability without requiring additional target-task labels, we propose Stable Conformal Prediction (StCP), a transfer learning approach that utilizes labeled source-task data and unlabeled target data. Theoretically, we characterize the marginal coverage and stability of StCP; empirically, it delivers more stable prediction sets than standard conformal prediction methods, especially for those with localization, when calibration data are limited.

Performative prediction captures the phenomenon where deploying a predictive model shifts the underlying data distribution. While simple retraining dynamics are known to converge linearly when the performative effects are weak ($\rho < 1$), the complexity in the regime $\rho > 1$ was hitherto open. In this paper, we establish a sharp phase transition: computing an $\epsilon$-performatively stable point is PPAD-complete---and thus polynomial-time equivalent to Nash equilibria in general-sum games---even when $\rho = 1 + O(\epsilon)$. This intractability persists even in the ostensibly simple setting with a quadratic loss function and linear distribution shifts. One of our key technical contributions is to extend this PPAD-hardness result to general convex domains, which is of broader interest in the complexity of variational inequalities. Finally, we address the special case of strategic classification, showing that computing a strategic local optimum is PLS-hard.

World models are essential for autonomous robotic planning. However, the substantial computational overhead of existing dense Transformer-based models significantly hinders real-time deployment. To address this efficiency-performance bottleneck, we introduce DDP-WM, a novel world model centered on the principle of Disentangled Dynamics Prediction (DDP). We hypothesize that latent state evolution in observed scenes is heterogeneous and can be decomposed into sparse primary dynamics driven by physical interactions and secondary context-driven background updates. DDP-WM realizes this decomposition through an architecture that integrates efficient historical processing with dynamic localization to isolate primary dynamics. By employing a cross-attention mechanism for background updates, the framework optimizes resource allocation and provides a smooth optimization landscape for planners. Extensive experiments demonstrate that DDP-WM achieves superior efficiency and performance across diverse tasks, including navigation, precise tabletop manipulation, and complex deformable or multi-body interactions. Specifically, on the challenging Push-T task, DDP-WM achieves an approximately 9 times inference speedup and improves the MPC success rate from 90% to 98% compared to state-of-the-art dense models.

Bayes--assisted conformal prediction combines the strengths of Bayesian modelling with exact, distribution--free frequentist coverage guarantees. Although conformal validity is preserved even when the Bayesian working model (BWM) is misspecified, the size of the resulting prediction sets can degrade substantially when the prior is poorly aligned with the observed data. We address this limitation by introducing \textbf{RoBAS} (\textbf{Ro}bust \textbf{B}ayes-\textbf{A}ssisted \textbf{S}hrinkage): a Bayes--assisted framework for constructing robust nonconformity scores, with two instantiations: one induced by a heavy--tailed BWM, and a closed--form empirical Bayes shrinkage score. The resulting scores adapt to the quality of the working information encoded in the prior: when this information is reliable, they exploit it to produce efficient prediction sets; when it is weak or inaccurate, they revert to the Distance--To--Average (DTA) score, a robust non--informative baseline. We evaluate the proposed scores on tabular and image regression tasks where the training distribution may differ from the calibration and test distributions, while the calibration and test data themselves remain exchangeable. We find that they are competitive with widely used scores in the absence of such shift, while substantially reducing interval widths in shifted settings.

Conformal prediction (CP) is a distribution-free method to construct reliable prediction intervals that has gained significant attention in recent years. Despite its success and various proposed extensions, a significant practical feature which has been overlooked in previous research is the potential skewed nature of the noise, or of the residuals when the predictive model exhibits bias. In this work, we leverage recent developments in CP to propose a new asymmetric procedure that bridges the gap between skewed and non-skewed noise distributions, while still maintaining adaptivity of the prediction intervals. We introduce a new statistical learning problem to construct adaptive and asymmetric prediction bands, with a unique feature based on a penalty which promotes symmetry: when the penalty intensity varies, the intervals smoothly change from symmetric to asymmetric ones. This statistical learning problem is based on reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces and the recently introduced kernel sum-of-squares framework. First, we establish representer theorems to make our problem tractable in practice, and derive dual formulations which are essential for scalability to larger datasets. Second, the intensity of the penalty is chosen using a novel data-driven method which automatically identifies the symmetric nature of the noise. We show that consenting to some asymmetry can let the learned prediction bands better adapt to small sample regimes, outliers or biased predictive models. Finally, our experiments illustrate the efficiency of such penalized kernel sum-of-squares to construct adaptive prediction bands.

Clustering-based features are widely used in machine learning, but most methods must choose a resolution---a choice that is global, fixed, and ad hoc. Recent work shows that varying the resolution parameter produces only a finite set of structurally stable partitions, known as configurations. Based on this, we introduce Configuration-Mixed Prediction (CMP), a setting where models learn to adaptively weight these configurations per sample for downstream prediction. We propose MixConfig, a plug-and-play feature augmentation module that extracts configurations from any embedding and learns energy-aware mixing weights via a novel selector that jointly reasons about sample context, cluster assignments, and stability statistics. Experiments across tabular, molecular, vision, and text domains demonstrate consistent improvements over single-resolution and static baselines across diverse predictor architectures, with gains particularly pronounced in low-data regimes.

Decision-Focused Learning (DFL) trains predictors to improve downstream decision quality, but computing regret gradients typically requires differentiating through solvers or relying on surrogate losses, which can be computationally expensive or deviate from the true objective. We show that, under standard regularity with locally stable active constraints, the regret gradient admits a closed-form geometric characterization, equivalent to the prediction error projected onto the tangent space of active constraints, scaled by local curvature. This reveals that regret gradients can be obtained by filtering decision-irrelevant components from the MSE gradient, providing a simpler and more direct alternative to existing approaches. We propose PEAR (Projected Error As Regret-gradient), which computes regret gradients via a reduced linear system over active constraints, avoiding differentiation through solver iterations or additional optimization solves. Experiments on LP benchmarks and a real-world QP task show that PEAR achieves the best decision quality among all baselines while being the most computationally efficient, with gains that persist under constraint shifts.

Prediction sets can wrap around any ML model to cover unknown test outcomes with a guaranteed probability. Yet, it remains unclear how to use them optimally for downstream decision-making. Here, we propose a decision-theoretic framework that seeks to minimize the expected loss (risk) against a worst-case distribution consistent with the prediction set's coverage guarantee. We first characterize the minimax optimal policy for a fixed prediction set, showing that it balances the worst-case loss inside the set with a penalty for potential losses outside the set. Building on this, we derive the optimal prediction set construction that minimizes the resulting robust risk subject to a coverage constraint. Finally, we introduce Risk-Optimal Conformal Prediction (ROCP), a practical algorithm that targets these risk-minimizing sets while maintaining finite-sample distribution-free marginal coverage. Empirical evaluations on medical diagnosis and a toy static hazard-decision benchmark demonstrate that ROCP reduces critical mistakes compared to baselines, particularly when out-of-set errors are costly. The source code to reproduce our experiments is available at https://github.com/TaoWangPenn/Risk-Optimal-Conformal-Prediction.

Spatial transcriptomics offers spatially resolved gene expression profiling within tissue sections, but its cost and limited throughput hinder large-scale deployment. To extend this capability to routine practice, recent computational methods aim to infer spatial gene expression directly from ubiquitous hematoxylin and eosin-stained histology slides. However, most existing models assume Cartesian or geometry-agnostic locality, despite the hexagonal sampling of widely used spot-array platforms, and point-wise regression objectives often yield over-smoothed gene expression profiles, obscuring gene-specific spatial heterogeneity. To address these, we propose HEXST, a geometry-aligned Transformer for spatial gene expression prediction from histology. HEXST operates directly on hexagonal spot coordinates to enable efficient local-to-global contextual modeling via a tailored shifted-window attention mechanism and hexagonal rotary positional encoding. To enhance gene-wise spatial contrast, HEXST complements point-wise regression with a contrast-sensitive differential objective and transcriptomic priors from a pretrained single-cell foundation model during training. Across seven spatial transcriptomics datasets, HEXST consistently outperforms state-of-the-art models, providing accurate and robust spatial gene expression predictions while preserving gene-wise contrast and spatial heterogeneity.

Accurate long-horizon vessel trajectory prediction remains challenging due to compounded uncertainty from complex navigation behaviors and environmental factors. Existing methods often struggle to maintain global directional consistency, leading to drifting or implausible trajectories when extrapolated over long time horizons. To address this issue, we propose a semantic-key-point-conditioned trajectory modeling framework, in which future trajectories are predicted by conditioning on a high-level Next Key Point (NKP) that captures navigational intent. This formulation decomposes long-horizon prediction into global semantic decision-making and local motion modeling, effectively restricting the support of future trajectories to semantically feasible subsets. To efficiently estimate the NKP prior from historical observations, we adopt a pretrain-finetune strategy. Extensive experiments on real-world AIS data demonstrate that the proposed method consistently outperforms state-of-the-art approaches, particularly for long travel durations, directional accuracy, and fine-grained trajectory prediction.

Reliable uncertainty quantification at unobserved spatial locations is a key challenge in spatial statistics, particularly for complex and heterogeneous datasets. While traditional methods such as Kriging rely on strong distributional assumptions, conformal prediction (CP) offers a distribution-free alternative. However, although non-i.i.d. CP theory is well established for time-series data, a significant gap remains for spatial data, where the lack of a natural ordering and discrete index complicates theoretical guarantees. Existing CP theory for spatial data often relies on exchangeability. We propose Localized Spatial Conformal Prediction (LSCP), a model-agnostic framework that bridges this gap by coupling local quantile regression with conformal calibration. LSCP conditions on spatial neighborhoods to capture local heterogeneity. We show that LSCP retains finite-sample marginal coverage under spatial exchangeability and attains asymptotic conditional coverage under stationarity and spatial mixing. Across synthetic and real datasets, LSCP consistently achieves near-nominal coverage with tighter and more stable prediction intervals than existing methods that fail to capture these spatial dependencies.

We study the problem of monitoring model performance in dynamic environments where labeled data are limited. To this end, we propose prediction-powered risk monitoring (PPRM), a semi-supervised risk-monitoring approach based on prediction-powered inference (PPI). PPRM constructs anytime-valid lower bounds on the running risk by combining synthetic labels with a small set of true labels. Harmful shifts are detected via a threshold-based comparison with an upper bound on the nominal risk, satisfying assumption-free finite-sample guarantees on the type-I error. We demonstrate the effectiveness of PPRM through extensive experiments on image classification, large language model (LLM), and telecommunications monitoring tasks.

Conformal prediction provides distribution-free prediction sets with finite-sample conditional guarantees. RKHS-based frameworks—while promising for complex covariate shifts—suffer from prohibitive computational costs. To guarantee conditional validity under such shifts while ensuring feasibility, we build upon the framework of Gibbs et al. (2025) by introducing a stable and efficient algorithm that computes the full solution path of the regularized RKHS conformal optimization problem, at essentially the same cost as a single kernel quantile fit. Our approach provides simultaneous hyperparameter tuning which provides smoothness control and data-adaptive calibration. To extend the method to high-dimensional settings, we further integrate our approach with low-rank latent embeddings that capture conditional validity in a data-driven latent space. Empirically, our method provides reliable conditional coverage across a variety of modern black-box predictors, improving the interval length of Gibbs et al. (2025) by 30%, while achieving a 40-fold speedup.

Battery lifetime early prediction is crucial for safety assessment and decision planning, yet early-stage degradation signals are extremely weak and difficult to distinguish from stochastic noise. Existing methods primarily rely on denoising or signal decomposition, which may lose critical degradation cues. In nature, most organisms exhibit the binaural effect, exploiting discrepancies between left and right auditory inputs to enhance perceptual reliability. Inspired by this, we propose DITING, a weak degradation listener for battery lifetime early prediction. We first employ optimal-transport-based selective matching to extract a robust health template from initial cycles, and further design a tri-coupled degradation manifestation mechanism to distinguish degradation signals from noise. By exploiting the randomness of noise, matched responses under symmetric coupling suppress stochastic fluctuations, while degradation-driven cumulative deviations propagate through the coupling process to form stable bilateral discrepancies, thereby amplifying weak early-stage cues for lifetime prediction. Experiments on various datasets demonstrate that DITING achieves state-of-the-art performance and provides more reliable early support for full-lifecycle battery management.

We introduce test prediction variance (TPV)—the first-order sensitivity of a trained model's outputs to parameter perturbations—as a unifying framework for analyzing post-training robustness. TPV's trace form $\mathrm{Tr}(H_{\mathrm{eff}}C)$ separates the geometry of the trained model $H_{\mathrm{eff}}$ from the perturbation covariance $C$, placing SGD noise, label noise, quantization, and pruning under a single lens. The resulting expressions recover the wide-minima hypothesis for SGD and quantization noise, and yield a distinct Jacobian-spectral characterization for label noise connecting label-noise TPV with benign overfitting in nonlinear networks. Theoretically, we prove that training-set TPV converges to its test-set counterpart in the overparameterized limit, irrespective of generalization performance, providing the first result that prediction variance under local parameter perturbations can be inferred from training inputs alone. Empirically, this stability holds far more broadly, including at very low widths. Further, TPV correlates well with test loss, enabling practical applications: JBR, a label-free pruning criterion derived from TPV geometry matching state-of-the-art baselines; and training-set based model selection signal for in-distribution and transfer learning scenarios. \href{https://github.com/devansharpit/TPV/tree/main}{Code Available Here}