ICML 2026 论文列表

International Conference on Machine Learning

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6,341篇论文

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Optimizing Inference-Time Compute for Medical Reasoning via Uncertainty Quantification

Shaohao Rui, Kaitao Chen, Weijie Ma, Xiaosong Wang

展开摘要

Extended Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning has significantly bolstered the capabilities of medical large language models (LLMs). However, current models exhibit static computational expenditure, applying lengthy reasoning processes indiscriminately to both simple queries and complex diagnostic cases. This inefficiency is particularly prohibitive in real-world healthcare, where clinical scenarios range from time-sensitive emergencies requiring rapid response to intricate pathologies demanding deep analysis. To address this, we propose **AdaThink-Med**, an end-to-end framework for adaptive reasoning via uncertainty-guided length calibration. Although the underlying mechanism is generalizable, we demonstrate its critical value in the medical domain, where balancing inference latency with diagnostic precision is paramount. AdaThink-Med leverages entropy-based uncertainty estimation within reinforcement fine-tuning to dynamically shape reward signals: it penalizes verbosity for high-confidence correct answers (e.g., straightforward knowledge retrieval) while incentivizing extended exploration for uncertain or ambiguous scenarios. Across six medical benchmarks, AdaThink-Med reduces inference token consumption by **4.7× to 6.4×** on Qwen and Llama architectures, respectively, with minimal performance trade-offs. Notably, our reward design naturally produces distinct "non-thinking" and "thinking" modes within a single model, enabling efficient allocation of computational resources without any external router or classifier.

Poster
InfiMed-ORBIT: Aligning LLMs on Open-Ended Complex Tasks via Rubric-Based Incremental Training

Pengkai Wang, Pengwei Liu, Qi Zuo, Zhijie Sang, Congkai Xie, Hongxia Yang

展开摘要

Reinforcement learning (RL) has powered many recent breakthroughs in large language models (LLMs), especially for tasks where rewards can be computed automatically, such as code generation. However, it is less effective in open-ended medical dialogue, where feedback is ambiguous, context-dependent, and difficult to simply summarize into a single scalar signal—often requiring heavily supervised reward models and creating risks of reward hacking. Thus, we introduce ORBIT, an open-ended rubric-based incremental training framework tailored for critical medical dialogues. ORBIT integrates medical dialogue construction with dynamically generated case-conditioned rubrics that serve as adaptive guides for incremental RL. Unlike approaches that rely on external medical knowledge bases or handcrafted rules, ORBIT uses rubric-guided evaluation and can be implemented with general-purpose instruction-following LLMs, avoiding task-specific judge fine-tuning. With only 2k training samples, ORBIT raises Qwen3-4B-Instruct's HealthBench-Hard score from 7.0 to 27.5, achieving state-of-the-art performance among similarly sized open-source models while maintaining strong consultation quality as rubric coverage broadens. Project page: https://pidneuralode.github.io/ORBIT.

Poster
DecoderTCR: Compositional Pretraining and Entropy-Guided Decoding for TCR-pMHC Interactions

Boqiao Lai, Melissa Englund, Ramit Bharanikumar, Isabel Nocedal, Ali Davariashtiyani, Jason Perera, Aly A Khan

展开摘要

Modeling recognition between T-cell receptors (TCRs) and peptide-MHC (pMHC) complexes is a fundamental challenge in computational immunology, constrained by sparse paired interaction data relative to abundant unpaired sequences. We introduce DecoderTCR, a masked language model framework that addresses this through two contributions: (1) a compositional continual pre-training curriculum that learns component representations from marginal data before refining cross-chain dependencies, and (2) Iterative Entropy-Guided Refinement (IEGR), a non-autoregressive decoding algorithm that resolves high-confidence positions first to provide context for uncertain regions. On held-out benchmarks, DecoderTCR achieves 0.96 AUROC for zero-shot pMHC binding prediction and 0.76 AUROC for epitope-specific TCR recognition, approaching supervised baselines without epitope-specific training. Learned representations recover structural contacts without coordinate supervision, and generated sequences exhibit realistic recombination statistics. Experimental validation across two rounds of wet-lab screening reveals a prediction-generation gap that can be narrowed via a lab-in-the-loop paradigm for TCR design.

Poster
Steering Large Language Models through the DMTA Cycle: Structure-Based Drug Design via Knowledge-Driven Bi-Level Thompson Sampling

Xuanning Hu, Hao Tuo, Jinglong Ji, Anchen Li, Qianli Xing, Bo Yang

展开摘要

Structure-based drug design (SBDD) can be effectively realized through an iterative refinement via the Design-Make-Test-Analyze (DMTA) cycle, which is a common workflow used by human experts. However, most conventional deep learning-based models as one-shot generators that lack feedback mechanisms, leaving the DMTA loop disconnected. In this work, we propose K-BTS, a Knowledge-Driven Bi-level Thompson Sampling framework that formalizes iterative SBDD as a Dynamic Hierarchical Multi-Armed Bandit problem. K-BTS closes the DMTA loop by decoupling decisions into two levels: an upper-level policy that prioritizes high-potential molecular lineages and a lower-level mechanism that retrieves explicit chemical rules to guide LLM generation. By integrating a dual-level Bayesian update, the framework transforms sparse docking scores into reusable experience. On the CrossDocked2020 benchmark, K-BTS achieves a state-of-the-art Top-1 average docking score. The results from diverse dimensions show that K-BTS ensures search determinism through a smooth, monotonic convergence that synchronizes structural drift with affinity improvement.

Poster
FLAG: Foundation model representation with Latent diffusion Alignment via Graph for spatial gene expression prediction

Qi Si, Penglei Wang, Yushuai Wu, Yifeng Jiao, Xuyang Liu, Xin Guo, Yuan Qi, Yuan Cheng

展开摘要

Predicting spatial gene expression from routine H\&E enables large-scale molecular profiling, yet current models treat this as isolated pointwise tasks, thereby overlooking essential biological structures like gene coordination and spatial distribution. To preserve these relationships, we introduce \textbf{FLAG}, a diffusion-based framework that redefines this task as structured distribution modeling. At the same time, we identify the critical \textbf{Gene Dimension Curse}, where joint modeling gene expression and their spatial interactions fail in high-dimensional spaces, and FLAG solves this challenge by integrating a spatial graph encoder for topological consistency and utilizing Gene Foundation Model (GFM) alignment for gene-gene fidelity in the generation process. To rigorously assess model performance, we propose a set of novel structural evaluation metrics, including Gene Structural Correlation (\textbf{GSC}) and Spatial Structural Correlation (\textbf{SSC}). Our experiments demonstrate that FLAG is highly competitive in traditional accuracy (PCC/MSE) while achieving significantly enhanced structural fidelity in capturing both gene-gene and gene-spatial relationships. The code is available at https://github.com/darkflash03/FLAG.

Poster
PerturbDiff: Functional Diffusion for Single-Cell Perturbation Modeling

Xinyu Yuan, Xixian Liu, Ya Shi Zhang, Zuobai Zhang, Hongyu Guo, Jian Tang

展开摘要

Building _Virtual Cells_ that can accurately simulate cellular responses to perturbations is a long-standing goal in systems biology. A fundamental challenge is that high-throughput single-cell sequencing is destructive: the same cell cannot be observed both before and after a perturbation. Thus, perturbation prediction requires mapping unpaired control and perturbed populations. Existing models address this by learning maps between distributions, but typically assume a single fixed response distribution when conditioned on observed cellular context (_e.g._, cell type) and the perturbation type. In reality, responses vary systematically due to unobservable latent factors such as microenvironmental fluctuations and complex batch effects, forming a _manifold_ of possible distributions for the same observed conditions. To capture this variability, we introduce PerturbDiff, which shifts modeling from individual cells to entire distributions. By embedding distributions as points in a Hilbert space, we define a diffusion-based generative process operating directly over probability distributions. This allows PerturbDiff to capture population-level response shifts across hidden factors, improving generalization. Benchmarks on established datasets show that PerturbDiff achieves state-of-the-art performance in single-cell response prediction and generalizes substantially better to unseen perturbations. See our project page (https://katarinayuan.github.io/PerturbDiff-ProjectPage/), where code and data (https://github.com/DeepGraphLearning/PerturbDiff) are publicly available.

Poster
DIYHealth Suite: Dataset, Model, and Benchmark for Health Management at Home

Changshuo Liu, Wu Junran, Zhongle Xie, Wenqiao Zhang, Kaiping Zheng, Jiaqi Zhu, Qingpeng Cai, Ooi Gene Anne, Marcus Chun Jin Tan, Jianwei Yin, James Wei Luen Yip, Beng Chin Ooi

展开摘要

Generative AI is reshaping healthcare, yet most existing advances rely on hospital-grade devices, which limits their accessibility and potential for health management outside clinical settings. With the proliferation of portable devices and telemedicine, healthcare is shifting toward home-based Diagnosis-It-Yourself (DIY) care. Despite this promise, several distinctive challenges remain: (i) home-collected data are heterogeneous, exacerbated by the absence of standardized large-scale datasets; (ii) models require adaptation to variable task demands and evolving individual conditions; (iii) the broad spectrum of home care tasks lacks a unified benchmark for systematic evaluation. In this paper, we present **DIYHealth Suite**, a comprehensive framework designed to address these challenges through a tailored dataset, model, and benchmark. We first curate **DIYHealth-900K**, a large-scale multimodal dataset capturing diverse real-world home care scenarios. Building on this, we propose **DIYHealthGPT**, an adaptive foundation model for home-based health management, powered by the novel Hybrid Hyper Low-Rank Adaptation technique. Finally, we establish **DIYHealthBench**, the first benchmark to evaluate foundation models on home care tasks. Extensive experiments demonstrate that DIYHealthGPT delivers state-of-the-art performance over both general-purpose and medical-specific baselines on 11 home care tasks in both open-QA and closed-QA settings, laying the groundwork for the next generation of personalized health management at home.

Poster
Leveraging Lineage Barcodes as Natural Augmentations for Contrastive Learning of Cell Fate in scRNA-seq Data

Shizhao Joshua Yang, Yixin Wang, Kevin Z. Lin

展开摘要

Deciphering how cells commit to future fates is essential for developing precision therapeutics that can reprogram stem cells or modulate immune functions. However, isolating these fate-determining signals in single-cell lineage tracing (scLT) remains challenging because differentiation programs are often confounded by unrelated processes like the cell cycle. To address this, we introduce Lineage-aware Contrastive Learning (LCL), a framework that treats inheritable lineage barcodes as a "natural" data augmentation to isolate subtle, lineage-specific signals. LCL utilizes a semi-supervised architecture to align unlabeled cells, facilitating the transfer of lineage structures to clinical datasets where explicit barcoding is unavailable. We demonstrate LCL’s utility by predicting future cell-type compositions from early-time points, effectively modeling longitudinal fate commitment from cross-sectional data. Benchmarking on hematopoietic and fibroblast systems shows that LCL significantly outperforms standard models like scVI, establishing contrastive learning as a scalable paradigm for understanding and potentially manipulating cellular differentiation.

Poster
EpiTwin: Spatiotemporal Graph Transformers for Epileptic sEEG Signal Reconstruction

Jingbo Yang, Yunfeng Zhao, Chao Qiu, Yulin Sun, Xiuyun Liu, Xiaofei Wang

展开摘要

Stereotactic electroencephalography (sEEG) provides temporally precise intracranial recordings but is inherently constrained by sparse and irregular spatial sampling due to clinical limitations on electrode implantation. Signal reconstruction under this setting aims to infer neural activity at unmonitored locations, potentially expanding the coverage of neural recordings without increasing the number of implanted electrodes. However, most existing sEEG reconstruction methods underutilize the spatial information of electrode contacts in both encoding and modeling, and rely on deterministic objectives that favor average patterns, leading to over-smoothed reconstructions. We propose EpiTwin, a conditional spatial graph transformer for sEEG signal reconstruction, comprising three key components. Hybrid Spatial Positional Encoding (HSPE) constructs explicit spatial identities from electrode coordinates, graph topology, and anatomical priors. Geometry–Functional Biased Attention (GFBA) incorporates geometric distance and data-driven functional similarity biases into attention computation. The adversarial refinement training employs a multi-scale discriminator to counter reconstruction over-smoothing. Experiments on real-world clinical sEEG data demonstrate that EpiTwin consistently achieves lower reconstruction error under electrode series-level masking, outperforming recent foundation models such as LaBraM with a 16.8\% relative reduction in RMSE. Furthermore, EpiTwin effectively mitigates spectral over-smoothing and improves reconstruction fidelity.

Poster
FunCQNet: A Functional Censored Quantile Neural Network for Predicting Long-Term Post-Transplant Kidney Survival

Jiaqi Men, Hua Liu, Yiming Tang, Jinhong You, Jianghu James Dong, Jiguo Cao

展开摘要

Accurate survival prediction in kidney transplantation is critical yet challenging due to the complex interplay between functional biomarkers and patient characteristics under censoring. To address this, we propose a functional censored quantile neural network (FunCQNet), a novel framework that integrates deep neural networks with a censoring-adjusted sequential quantile loss to approximate interaction-dependent coefficient functions. We further introduce a conformal inference approach to rigorously assess the significance of functional-scalar interactions, ensuring interpretability alongside predictive power. Extensive simulations demonstrate that FunCQNet robustly recovers functional effects under varying noise and censoring levels. When applied to kidney transplant data, the model yields precise multi-quantile predictions and reveals clinically significant, age-dependent interaction patterns between donor type and recipient survival.

Poster
Med-SegLens: Latent-Level Model Diffing for Interpretable Medical Image Segmentation

Salma J. Ahmed, Salma J. Ahmed, Emad Mohammed, Emad A. Mohammed, Azam Asilian Bidgoli

展开摘要

Modern segmentation models achieve strong predictive performance but remain largely opaque, limiting our ability to diagnose failures, understand dataset shift, or intervene in a principled manner. We introduce $\textbf{Med-SegLens}$, a model-diffing framework that decomposes segmentation model activations into interpretable latent features using sparse autoencoders trained on SegFormer and U-Net. Through cross-architecture and cross-dataset latent alignment across healthy, adult, pediatric, and sub-Saharan African glioma cohorts, we identify a stable backbone of shared representations, while dataset shift is driven by differential reliance on population-specific latents. We show that these latents act as causal bottlenecks for segmentation failures, and that targeted latent-level interventions can correct errors and improve cross-dataset adaption without retraining, recovering performance in 70% of failure cases and improving Dice score from 39.4% to 74.2%. Our results demonstrate that latent-level model diffing provides a practical and mechanistic tool for diagnosing failures and mitigating dataset shift in segmentation models.

Poster
RNA-FM: Flow-Matching Generative Model for Genome-wide RNA-Seq Prediction

Yaxuan Song, Jianan Fan, Tianyi Wang, Qiuyue Hu, Hang Chang, Heng Huang, Weidong Cai

展开摘要

Histopathology whole-slide images (WSIs) are routinely acquired in clinical practice and contain rich tissue morphology but lack direct molecular architecture and functional programs defining pathological states, whereas RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) provides genome-wide transcriptional profiles at substantial cost, thereby motivating WSI-based genome-wide transcriptomic prediction. Existing approaches for predicting gene expression from WSIs predominantly rely on deterministic regression with one-to-one mapping, limiting their ability to capture biological heterogeneity and predictive uncertainty. We propose RNA-FM, a flow-matching generative framework for genome-wide bulk RNA-seq prediction from WSIs. RNA-FM formulates transcriptomic prediction as a continuous-time conditional transport problem, learning a velocity field that maps a simple prior to the target gene expression distribution conditioned on morphologies. By integrating pathway-level structure, RNA-FM enables scalable and biologically interpretable genome-wide gene expression imputation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that RNA-FM consistently outperforms state-of-the-art approaches while maintaining biological meaningfulness. Code is available at https://github.com/YXSong000/RNA-FM.

Poster
MedCRP-CL: Continual Medical Image Segmentation via Bayesian Nonparametric Semantic Modality Discovery

Ziyuan Gao

展开摘要

Medical image segmentation faces a fundamental challenge in continual learning: data arrives sequentially from heterogeneous sources, yet effective continual learning requires discovering which tasks share sufficient structure to benefit from joint learning. Existing methods either apply uniform constraints across all tasks, causing catastrophic forgetting when tasks conflict, or require predefined task groupings that cannot anticipate future task diversity. We introduce MedCRP-CL, a framework that performs online task structure discovery and structure-aware continual learning. Leveraging the Chinese Restaurant Process (CRP), our method dynamically infers task groupings from clinical text prompts as tasks arrive, without requiring predefined cluster counts or access to future tasks. We term these discovered groupings semantic modalities, as they capture finer-grained structure than physical imaging modalities by integrating anatomical region and pathological context. Guided by this discovered structure, we maintain semantic modality-specific LoRA adapters regularized by intra-modality EWC, ensuring parameter isolation across dissimilar task groups while facilitating knowledge transfer within similar ones. The framework is also replay-free, storing only aggregate statistics rather than raw patient data. Experiments on 16 medical segmentation tasks across four imaging modalities demonstrate that MedCRP-CL achieves 73.3\% Dice score with only 4.1\% forgetting, outperforming the best baseline by 8.0\% while requiring 6$\times$ fewer parameters. Code is available at https://github.com/zygao930/MedCRP-CL.

Poster
Influence-Guided Symbolic Regression: Scientific Discovery via LLM-Driven Equation Search with Granular Feedback

Evgeny Saveliev, Samuel Holt, Nabeel Seedat, David L. Bentley, Jim Weatherall, Mihaela van der Schaar

展开摘要

Large Language Models (LLMs) offer a promising avenue for scientific discovery, yet their application to symbolic regression is often constrained by inefficient search strategies and coarse feedback signals. Current methods typically guide LLMs using scalar metrics (e.g., global Mean Squared Error), which fail to identify which components of a proposed equation are driving performance or causing error. We introduce \textit{Influence-Guided Symbolic Regression} (IGSR), a method that frames equation discovery as an iterative two-step process combining diverse term generation with rigorous selection: an LLM generates candidate basis functions $\psi_j(\mathbf{x})$ for a linear model, which are then evaluated using granular influence scores $\Delta_j$. These scores quantify each term's marginal contribution to generalization accuracy, enabling an influence-guided pruning process that systematically refines the model structure. Integrating this mechanism into a Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) enables navigating the combinatorial search space while balancing exploration of novel functional forms with exploitation of high-influence components. We demonstrate IGSR's effectiveness on a diverse suite of benchmarks, including LLM-SRBench, pharmacological PKPD models, an epidemiological simulation, and real-world genomic data. Notably, we validate the framework's capacity for genuine discovery in a case study using a high-dimensional biological dataset, in which IGSR identified a novel relationship between DNA methylation and RNA Polymerase II pausing; a hypothesis that was subsequently supported via wet-lab experimentation.

Poster
Agentic Framework for Epidemiological Modeling

Rituparna Datta, Zihan Guan, Baltazar Espinoza, Yiqi Su, Priya Pitre, Srini Venkatramanan, Naren Ramakrishnan, Anil Vullikanti

展开摘要

Epidemic modeling is essential for public health planning, yet traditional approaches rely on fixed model classes that require manual redesign as pathogens, policies, and scenario assumptions evolve. We introduce EpiAgent, an agentic framework that automatically synthesizes, calibrates, verifies, and refines epidemiological simulators by modeling disease progression as an iterative program synthesis problem. A central design choice is an explicit epidemiological flow graph intermediate representation that links scenario specifications to model structure and enables strong, modular correctness checks before code is generated. Verified flow graphs are then compiled into mechanistic models supporting interpretable parameter learning under physical and epidemiological constraints. Evaluation on epidemiological scenario case studies demonstrates that EpiAgent captures complex growth dynamics and produces epidemiologically consistent counterfactual projections across varying vaccination and immune escape assumptions. Our results show that the agentic feedback loop prevents degeneration and significantly accelerates convergence toward valid models by mimicking professional expert workflows.

Poster
Effects of Structural Reward Shaping on Biophysical Properties in RL-Trained Plasmid Generators

McClain Thiel, Angus G. Cunningham, Chris P Barnes

展开摘要

We compare the efficacy and distributional effects of supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and reinforcement learning (RL) post-training for PlasmidGPT, a foundation model for whole-plasmid generation, using Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) for the RL model. Using a biologically motivated reward function encoding functional annotations, length constraints, and repeat penalties, the RL model achieves a 71.6% quality-control pass rate across 8 prompts on 4,000 sequences, compared to 4.3% for the pretrained baseline and 11.0% for SFT. A five-model reward ablation identifies the cassette arrangement bonus, which rewards correct promoter→CDS→terminator ordering, as the critical reward component. Rejectionsampling baselines indicate that the gain is not recovered by sampling more heavily from the base model. Beyond directly optimized features, RLgenerated sequences converge toward real plasmid distributions in 3-mer composition and minimum free energy density, neither of which is directly optimized by the reward function. Minimum free energy density independently converges to the real-plasmid regime under both SFT and RL despite these being parallel post-training paths. On a small curated hold-out set, RL improves continuation log-likelihood over the pretrained baseline on all 29 held-out sequences (mean ∆ = +0.83 nats).

Poster
MedCoG: Maximizing LLM Inference Density in Medical Reasoning via Meta-Cognitive Regulation

Yu Zhao, Hao Guan, Yongcheng Jing, Ying Zhang, Dacheng Tao

展开摘要

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown strong potential in complex medical reasoning yet face diminishing gains under inference scaling laws. While existing studies augment LLMs with various knowledge types, it remains unclear how effectively the additional costs translate into accuracy. In this paper, we explore how meta-cognition of LLMs, i.e., their self-assessment of their own cognitive states, can regulate the reasoning process. Specifically, we propose MedCoG, a Medical Meta-Cognition Agent with Knowledge Graph, where the meta-cognitive assessments of task complexity, familiarity, and knowledge density dynamically regulate utilization of procedural, episodic, and factual knowledge. The LLM-centric on-demand reasoning aims to mitigate the diminishing returns under scaling law by (1) reducing costs via avoiding indiscriminate scaling, (2) improving accuracy via filtering out distractive knowledge. To validate this, we empirically characterize the scaling curve and introduce inference density to quantify inference efficiency. Experiments demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of MedCoG on five hard sets of medical benchmarks, yielding 6.2x inference density. Furthermore, the Oracle study highlights the significant potential of meta-cognitive regulation.

Poster
Discrete Diffusion with Physical Mass Constraints for \emph{De Novo} Peptide Sequencing

An Zeyu, Wanyu Lin

展开摘要

$\textit{De novo}$ peptide sequencing is a pivotal technique that directly reconstructs amino acid sequences from tandem mass spectrometry (MS/MS) data; it enables the identification of novel proteins and variants absent from reference databases. Previous methods are typically based on autoregressive (AR) decoding or one-shot generation. The AR-based methods conflict with the bidirectional and globally constrained nature of MS/MS evidence and inevitably accumulate errors, while one-shot generation does not explicitly enforce physical constraints, failing to produce chemically valid and reliable peptides in a single pass. Accurate sequencing necessitates reasoning over the entire peptide simultaneously, enabling iterative self-correction under global constraints. To this end, we introduce $\textbf{PhysNovo}$, a novel paradigm that harnesses discrete diffusion to enable simultaneous global reasoning and iterative refinement. Specifically, PhysNovo reformulates sequencing as a $\textbf{phys}$ically mass-constrained reasoning process by embedding a knapsack-based feasibility kernel to enforce exact precursor mass consistency. By conditioning the diffusion process on global spectral context, PhysNovo supports abductive reasoning where bidirectional evidence is exploited to iteratively resolve local inconsistencies and ensure physically valid predictions. PhysNovo achieves state-of-the-art performance, exceeding baselines by over 2% in precision, with larger gains on out-of-distribution data. The source code is publicly available at https://github.com/WanyuGroup/ICML2026_PhysNovo.

Poster
Aggregate Models, Not Explanations: Improving Feature Importance Estimation

Joseph Paillard, Angel David REYERO LOBO, Denis-Alexander Engemann, Bertrand Thirion

展开摘要

Feature-importance methods show promise for transforming machine learning (ML) models from predictive engines into tools for scientific discovery. However, expressive models can be unstable due to data sampling and algorithmic stochasticity, leading to inaccurate variable importance estimates, undermining their utility in critical biomedical applications. While ensembling offers a remedy, the choice between explaining a single ensemble model or aggregating individual model explanations is non-trivial due to the non-linearity of importance measures, and remains largely understudied. Our theoretical analysis, developed under assumptions accommodating complex state-of-the-art ML models, reveals that this choice is governed by a trade-off involving the model's excess risk. In contrast to prior literature, we show that ensembling at the model level provides more accurate variable-importance estimates, particularly for expressive models, by reducing this leading error term. We validate these findings on classical benchmarks and a large-scale proteomic study from the UK Biobank.

Poster
A Regime-Aware Trajectory Prediction Framework for 1000+ Systems Biology Models

Heng Rao, Jason Zipeng Zhang, Yu Gu, Zhenghao Liu, Ge Yu, Jeffrey Su, Yang Cao, Fan Yang, Minghan Chen

展开摘要

Predicting long-horizon trajectories of biological dynamical systems remains challenging due to substantial system heterogeneity. Most existing machine learning approaches are system-specific, requiring retraining for each new system and exhibiting limited generalization across distinct biological regimes. To address this limitation, we create a large-scale benchmark of over 1,000 ODE-based systems biology models spanning diverse organisms, biological processes, and dynamical behaviors. Building on this benchmark, we propose a regime-aware trajectory prediction framework that enables cross-system generalization and uncertainty quantification for unseen systems. Our approach introduces structured initial states derived from biological regime priors, such as growth trends and oscillatory rhythms, into conditional flow matching, replacing the standard Gaussian source distribution. We provide theoretical justification for this initialization and empirically demonstrate state-of-the-art accuracy (31\% MAE reduction), well-calibrated uncertainty (17\% CRPS improvement), and efficient long-horizon inference across the benchmark.

Poster