NeurIPS 2025 Papers

Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems

Decision breakdown

5,812papers

Counted from the official paper list; may differ slightly from the number the conference announced.

  • Oral
    931.6%
  • Spotlight
    73912.7%
  • Poster
    4,98085.7%

Browse all papers

OVS Meets Continual Learning: Towards Sustainable Open-Vocabulary Segmentation

Dongjun Hwang, Yejin Kim, Minyoung Lee, Seong Joon Oh, Junsuk Choe

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Open-Vocabulary Segmentation (OVS) aims to segment classes that are not present in the training dataset. However, most existing studies assume that the training data is fixed in advance, overlooking more practical scenarios where new datasets are continuously collected over time. To address this, we first analyze how existing OVS models perform under such conditions. In this context, we explore several approaches such as retraining, fine-tuning, and continual learning but find that each of them has clear limitations. To address these issues, we propose ConOVS, a novel continual learning method based on a Mixture-of-Experts framework. ConOVS dynamically combines expert decoders based on the probability that an input sample belongs to the distribution of each incremental dataset. Through extensive experiments, we show that ConOVS consistently outperforms existing methods across pre-training, incremental, and zero-shot test datasets, effectively expanding the recognition capabilities of OVS models when data is collected sequentially.

Poster
ORIGAMISPACE: Benchmarking Multimodal LLMs in Multi-Step Spatial Reasoning with Mathematical Constraints

Rui Xu, Dakuan Lu, Zicheng Zhao, Xiaoyu Tan, Xintao Wang, Siyu Yuan, Jiangjie Chen, Xu Yinghui

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Spatial reasoning is a key capability in the field of artificial intelligence, especially crucial in areas such as robotics, computer vision, and natural language understanding. However, evaluating the ability of multimodal large language models (MLLMs) in complex spatial reasoning still faces challenges, particularly in scenarios requiring multi-step reasoning and precise mathematical constraints. This paper introduces ORIGAMISPACE, a new dataset and benchmark designed to evaluate the multi-step spatial reasoning ability and the capacity to handle mathematical constraints of MLLMs through origami tasks. The dataset contains 350 data instances, each comprising a strictly formatted crease pattern (CP diagram), the Compiled Flat Pattern, the complete Folding Process, and the final Folded Shape Image. We propose four evaluation tasks: Pattern Prediction, Multi-step Spatial Reasoning, Spatial Relationship Prediction, and End-to-End CP Code Generation. For the CP code generation task, we design an interactive environment and explore the possibility of using reinforcement learning methods to train MLLMs. Through experiments on existing MLLMs, we initially reveal the strengths and weaknesses of these models in handling complex spatial reasoning tasks.

Spotlight
DSAS: A Universal Plug-and-Play Framework for Attention Optimization in Multi-Document Question Answering

Jiakai Li, Rongzheng Wang, Yizhuo Ma, Shuang Liang, Guangchun Luo, Ke Qin

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While large language models (LLMs) show considerable promise across various fields, they have notable limitations in handling multi-document question answering (Multi-doc QA) tasks. The first challenge is long-range dependency modeling, where LLMs struggle to focus on key information in long texts, which weakens important semantic connections. Second, most LLMs suffer from the ''lost-in-the-middle'' issue, where they have difficulty processing information in the middle of long inputs. Current solutions either truncate global dependencies or demand costly finetuning, ultimately lacking a universal and simple solution for these challenges. To resolve these limitations, we propose Dual-Stage Adaptive Sharpening (DSAS) containing two modules. (i) The Contextual Gate Weighting (CGW) module alleviates ''lost-in-the-middle'' by assessing paragraph relevance through layer-wise attention tracking and position-aware weighting. (ii) The Reciprocal Attention Suppression (RAS) module enhances focus on critical paragraphs by suppressing information exchange between key and irrelevant texts, thus mitigating the limitations in long-range dependency modeling. Extensive experiments on four benchmarks demonstrate DSAS's efficacy across mainstream LLMs (Llama, Qwen, Mistral, and Deepseek), with an average F1-score improvement of 4.2% in Multi-doc QA tasks on Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct and Qwen2.5-14B-Instruct. Ablation studies confirm the essential contributions of both the CGW and RAS modules. In addition, detailed discussions in the Appendix further validate the robustness and scalability of DSAS.

Poster
Multi-step Visual Reasoning with Visual Tokens Scaling and Verification

Tianyi Bai, Zengjie Hu, Fupeng Sun, Qiu Jiantao, Yizhen Jiang, Guangxin He, Bohan Zeng, Conghui He, Binhang Yuan, Wentao Zhang

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Multi-modal large language models (MLLMs) have achieved remarkable capabilities by integrating visual perception with language understanding, enabling applications such as image-grounded dialogue, visual question answering, and scientific analysis. However, most MLLMs adopt a static inference paradigm, encoding the entire image into fixed visual tokens upfront, which limits their ability to iteratively refine understanding or adapt to context during inference. This contrasts sharply with human perception, which is dynamic, selective, and feedback-driven. In this work, we introduce a novel framework for inference-time visual token scaling that enables MLLMs to perform iterative, verifier-guided reasoning over visual content. We formulate the problem as a Markov Decision Process, involving a reasoner that proposes visual actions and a verifier—trained via multi-step Direct Preference Optimization (DPO)—that evaluates these actions and determines when reasoning should terminate. To support this, we present a new dataset, VTS, comprising supervised reasoning trajectories (VTS-SFT) and preference-labeled reasoning comparisons (VTS-DPO). Our method significantly outperforms existing approaches across diverse visual reasoning benchmarks, offering not only improved accuracy but also more interpretable and grounded reasoning processes. These results demonstrate the promise of dynamic inference mechanisms for enabling fine-grained, context-aware visual reasoning in next-generation MLLMs. Code and datasets are publicly released at https://vts-v.github.io/.

Poster
Attention with Trained Embeddings Provably Selects Important Tokens

Diyuan Wu, Aleksandr Shevchenko, Samet Oymak, Marco Mondelli

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Token embeddings play a crucial role in language modeling but, despite this practical relevance, their theoretical understanding is limited. Our paper addresses the gap by characterizing the structure of embeddings obtained via gradient descent. Specifically, we consider a one-layer softmax attention model with a linear head for binary classification, i.e., $\mathrm{Softmax}( p^\top E_X^\top ) E_X v = \frac{ \sum_{i=1}^T \exp(p^\top E_{x_i}) E_{x_i}^\top v}{\sum_{j=1}^T \exp(p^\top E_{x_{j}}) }$, where $E_X = [ E_{x_1} , \dots, E_{x_T} ]^\top$ contains the embeddings of the input sequence, $p$ is the embedding of the $\mathrm{\langle cls \rangle}$ token and $v$ the output vector. First, we show that, already after a single step of gradient training with the standard logistic loss, the embeddings $E_X$ capture the importance of tokens in the dataset by aligning with the output vector $v$ proportionally to the corresponding average signed frequency that captures the relevance of tokens to the labels. Then, after training $p$ via gradient flow until convergence, the softmax selects the important tokens in the sentence (i.e., those that are predictive of the label), and the resulting $\mathrm{\langle cls \rangle}$ embedding maximizes the margin for such a selection. Experiments on real-world datasets (IMDB, Yelp) exhibit a phenomenology close to that unveiled by our theory.

Poster
Asymptotic theory of SGD with a general learning-rate

Or Goldreich, Ziyang Wei, Soham Bonnerjee, Jiaqi Li, Wei Biao Wu

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Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) with polynomially decaying step‐sizes has long underpinned theoretical analyses, yielding a broad spectrum of statistically attractive guarantees. Yet in practice, such schedules find rare use due to their prohibitively slow convergence, revealing a persistent gap between theory and empirical performance. In this paper, we introduce a unified framework that quantifies the uncertainty of online SGD under arbitrary learning‐rate choices. In particular, we provide the first comprehensive convergence characterizations for two widely used but theoretically under-examined schemes—cyclical learning rates and linear decay to zero. Our results not only explain the observed behavior of these schedules but also facilitate principled tools for statistical inference and algorithm design. All theoretical findings are corroborated by extensive simulations across diverse settings.

Poster
Optimal Best Arm Identification under Differential Privacy

Marc Jourdan, Achraf Azize

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Best Arm Identification (BAI) algorithms are deployed in data-sensitive applications, such as adaptive clinical trials or user studies. Driven by the privacy concerns of these applications, we study the problem of fixed-confidence BAI under global Differential Privacy (DP) for Bernoulli distributions. While numerous asymptotically optimal BAI algorithms exist in the non-private setting, a significant gap remains between the best lower and upper bounds in the global DP setting. This work reduces this gap to a small multiplicative constant, for any privacy budget $\epsilon$. First, we provide a tighter lower bound on the expected sample complexity of any $\delta$-correct and $\epsilon$-global DP strategy. Our lower bound replaces the Kullback–Leibler (KL) divergence in the transportation cost used by the non-private characteristic time with a new information-theoretic quantity that optimally trades off between the KL divergence and the Total Variation distance scaled by $\epsilon$. Second, we introduce a stopping rule based on these transportation costs and a private estimator of the means computed using an arm-dependent geometric batching. En route to proving the correctness of our stopping rule, we derive concentration results of independent interest for the Laplace distribution and for the sum of Bernoulli and Laplace distributions. Third, we propose a Top Two sampling rule based on these transportation costs. For any budget $\epsilon$, we show an asymptotic upper bound on its expected sample complexity that matches our lower bound to a multiplicative constant smaller than $8$. Our algorithm outperforms existing $\delta$-correct and $\epsilon$-global DP BAI algorithms for different values of $\epsilon$.

Poster
Differentially Private Quantiles with Smaller Error

Jacob Imola, Fabrizio Boninsegna, Hannah Keller, Anders Aamand, Amrita Roy Chowdhury, Rasmus Pagh

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In the approximate quantiles problem, the goal is to output $m$ quantile estimates, the ranks of which are as close as possible to $m$ given quantiles $0 \leq q_1 \leq\dots \leq q_m \leq 1$. We present a mechanism for approximate quantiles that satisfies $\varepsilon$-differential privacy for a dataset of $n$ real numbers where the ratio between the distance between the closest pair of points and the size of the domain is bounded by $\psi$. As long as the minimum gap between quantiles is sufficiently large, $|q_i-q_{i-1}|\geq \Omega\left(\frac{m\log(m)\log(\psi)}{n\varepsilon}\right)$ for all $i$, the maximum rank error of our mechanism is $O\left(\frac{\log(\psi) + \log^2(m)}{\varepsilon}\right)$ with high probability. Previously, the best known algorithm under pure DP was due to Kaplan, Schnapp, and Stemmer (ICML '22), who achieved a bound of $O\left(\frac{\log(\psi)\log^2(m) + \log^3(m)}{\varepsilon}\right)$. Our improvement stems from the use of continual counting techniques which allows the quantiles to be randomized in a correlated manner. We also present an $(\varepsilon,\delta)$-differentially private mechanism that relaxes the gap assumption without affecting the error bound, improving on existing methods when $\delta$ is sufficiently close to zero. We provide experimental evaluation which confirms that our mechanism performs favorably compared to prior work in practice, in particular when the number of quantiles $m$ is large.

Poster
DreamLight: Towards Harmonious and Consistent Image Relighting

Yong Liu, Wenpeng Xiao, Qianqian Wang, Junlin Chen, Shiyin Wang, Yitong Wang, Xinglong Wu, Yansong Tang

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We introduce a model named DreamLight for universal image relighting in this work, which can seamlessly composite subjects into a new background while maintaining aesthetic uniformity in terms of lighting and color tone. The background can be specified by natural images (image-based relighting) or generated from unlimited text prompts (text-based relighting). Existing studies primarily focus on image-based relighting, while with scant exploration into text-based scenarios. Some works employ intricate disentanglement pipeline designs relying on environment maps to provide relevant information, which grapples with the expensive data cost required for intrinsic decomposition and light source. Other methods take this task as an image translation problem and perform pixel-level transformation with autoencoder architecture. While these methods have achieved decent harmonization effects, they struggle to generate realistic and natural light interaction effects between the foreground and background. To alleviate these challenges, we reorganize the input data into a unified format and leverage the semantic prior provided by the pretrained diffusion model to facilitate the generation of natural results. Moreover, we propose a Position-Guided Light Adapter (PGLA) that condenses light information from different directions in the background into designed light query embeddings, and modulates the foreground with direction-biased masked attention. In addition, we present a post-processing module named Spectral Foreground Fixer (SFF) to adaptively reorganize different frequency components of subject and relighted background, which helps enhance the consistency of foreground appearance. Extensive comparisons and user study demonstrate that our DreamLight achieves remarkable relighting performance.

Poster
Speculative Jacobi-Denoising Decoding for Accelerating Autoregressive Text-to-image Generation

Yao Teng, Fu-Yun Wang, Xian Liu, Zhekai Chen, Han Shi, Yu Wang, Zhenguo Li, Weiyang Liu, Difan Zou, Xihui Liu

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As a new paradigm of visual content generation, autoregressive text-to-image models suffer from slow inference due to their sequential token-by-token decoding process, often requiring thousands of model forward passes to generate a single image. To address this inefficiency, we propose Speculative Jacobi-Denoising Decoding (SJD2), a framework that incorporates the denoising process into Jacobi iterations to enable parallel token generation in autoregressive models. Our method introduces a next-clean-token prediction paradigm that enables the pre-trained autoregressive models to accept noise-perturbed token embeddings and predict the next clean tokens through low-cost fine-tuning. This denoising paradigm guides the model towards more stable Jacobi trajectories. During inference, our method initializes token sequences with Gaussian noise and performs iterative next-clean-token-prediction in the embedding space. We employ a probabilistic criterion to verify and accept multiple tokens in parallel, and refine the unaccepted tokens for the next iteration with the denoising trajectory. Experiments show that our method can accelerate generation by reducing model forward passes while maintaining the visual quality of generated images.

Poster
Accurate and Efficient Low-Rank Model Merging in Core Space

Aniello Panariello, Daniel Marczak, Simone Magistri, Angelo Porrello, Bartłomiej Twardowski, Andrew D. Bagdanov, Simone Calderara, Joost van de weijer

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In this paper, we address the challenges associated with merging low-rank adaptations of large neural networks. With the rise of parameter-efficient adaptation techniques, such as Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA), model fine-tuning has become more accessible. While fine-tuning models with LoRA is highly efficient, existing merging methods often sacrifice this efficiency by merging fully-sized weight matrices. We propose the Core Space merging framework, which enables the merging of LoRA-adapted models within a common alignment basis, thereby preserving the efficiency of low-rank adaptation while substantially improving accuracy across tasks. We further provide a formal proof that projection into Core Space ensures no loss of information and provide a complexity analysis showing the efficiency gains. Extensive empirical results demonstrate that Core Space significantly improves existing merging techniques and achieves state-of-the-art results on both vision and language tasks while utilizing a fraction of the computational resources. Codebase is available at https://github.com/apanariello4/core-space-merging.

Poster
MathArena: Evaluating LLMs on Uncontaminated Math Competitions

Mislav Balunovic, Jasper Dekoninck, Ivo Petrov, Nikola Jovanović, Martin Vechev

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The rapid advancement of reasoning capabilities in large language models (LLMs) has led to notable improvements on mathematical benchmarks. However, many of the most commonly used evaluation datasets (e.g., AIME 2024) are widely available online, making it difficult to disentangle genuine reasoning from potential memorization. Furthermore, these benchmarks do not evaluate proof-writing capabilities, which are crucial for many mathematical tasks. To address this, we introduce MathArena, a new benchmark based on the following key insight: recurring math competitions provide a stream of high-quality, challenging problems that can be used for real-time evaluation of LLMs. By evaluating models as soon as new problems are released, we effectively eliminate the risk of contamination. Using this framework, we find strong signs of contamination in AIME 2024. Nonetheless, evaluations on harder competitions, such as CMIMC 2025, demonstrate impressive reasoning capabilities in top-performing models. MathArena is also the first benchmark for proof-writing capabilities. On IMO 2025, top models achieve slightly less than 40\%, demonstrating both notable progress and significant room for improvement. So far, we have evaluated over $50$ models across seven competitions, totaling $162$ problems. As an evolving benchmark, MathArena will continue to track the progress of LLMs on newly released competitions, ensuring rigorous and up-to-date evaluation of mathematical reasoning.

Poster
Continuous Thought Machines

Luke Nicholas Darlow, Ciaran Regan, Sebastian Risi, Jeffrey Seely, Llion Jones

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Biological brains demonstrate complex neural activity, where neural dynamics are critical to how brains process information. Most artificial neural networks ignore the complexity of individual neurons. We challenge that paradigm. By incorporating neuron-level processing and synchronization, we reintroduce neural timing as a foundational element. We present the Continuous Thought Machine (CTM), a model designed to leverage neural dynamics as its core representation. The CTM has two innovations: (1) neuron-level temporal processing}, where each neuron uses unique weight parameters to process incoming histories; and (2) neural synchronization as a latent representation. The CTM aims to strike a balance between neuron abstractions and biological realism. It operates at a level of abstraction that effectively captures essential temporal dynamics while remaining computationally tractable. We demonstrate the CTM's performance and versatility across a range of tasks, including solving 2D mazes, ImageNet-1K classification, parity computation, and more. Beyond displaying rich internal representations and offering a natural avenue for interpretation owing to its internal process, the CTM is able to perform tasks that require complex sequential reasoning. The CTM can also leverage adaptive compute, where it can stop earlier for simpler tasks, or keep computing when faced with more challenging instances. The goal of this work is to share the CTM and its associated innovations, rather than pushing for new state-of-the-art results. To that end, we believe the CTM represents a significant step toward developing more biologically plausible and powerful artificial intelligence systems. We provide an accompanying [interactive online demonstration](https://pub.sakana.ai/ctm/) and an [extended technical report](https://pub.sakana.ai/ctm/paper).

Spotlight
Hierarchical Fine-grained Preference Optimization for Physically Plausible Video Generation

Harold Haodong Chen, Haojian Huang, Qifeng Chen, Harry Yang, Ser-Nam Lim

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Recent advancements in video generation have enabled the creation of high-quality, visually compelling videos. However, generating videos that adhere to the laws of physics remains a critical challenge for applications requiring realism and accuracy. In this work, we propose **PhysHPO**, a novel framework for Hierarchical Cross-Modal Direct Preference Optimization, to tackle this challenge by enabling fine-grained preference alignment for physically plausible video generation. PhysHPO optimizes video alignment across four hierarchical granularities: a) ***Instance Level***, aligning the overall video content with the input prompt; b) ***State Level***, ensuring temporal consistency using boundary frames as anchors; c) ***Motion Level***, modeling motion trajectories for realistic dynamics; and d) ***Semantic Level***, maintaining logical consistency between narrative and visuals. Recognizing that real-world videos are the best reflections of physical phenomena, we further introduce an automated data selection pipeline to efficiently identify and utilize *"good data"* from existing large-scale text-video datasets, thereby eliminating the need for costly and time-intensive dataset construction. Extensive experiments on both physics-focused and general capability benchmarks demonstrate that PhysHPO significantly improves physical plausibility and overall video generation quality of advanced models. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to explore fine-grained preference alignment and data selection for video generation, paving the way for more realistic and human-preferred video generation paradigms.

Poster
Accelerating Diffusion LLMs via Adaptive Parallel Decoding

Daniel Mingyi Israel, Guy Van den Broeck, Aditya Grover

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The generation speed of LLMs are bottlenecked by autoregressive decoding, where tokens are predicted sequentially one by one. Alternatively, diffusion large language models (dLLMs) theoretically allow for parallel token generation, but in practice struggle to achieve the speed of autoregressive models without significantly sacrificing quality. We therefore introduce adaptive parallel decoding (APD), a novel method that dynamically adjusts the number of tokens sampled in parallel. We achieve this by defining a multiplicative mixture between the dLLM marginal probabilities and the joint probability of sequences under a small auxiliary autoregressive model. This inverts the standard setup of speculative decoding, where the goal is to sample from a large autoregressive verifier by drafting from a smaller model. We further optimize APD by enabling KV caching and limiting the size of the masked input. Altogether, our method puts forward three tunable parameters to flexibly tradeoff throughput and quality. We show that APD provides markedly higher throughput with minimal quality degradations on downstream benchmarks.

Spotlight
DyMU: Dynamic Merging and Virtual Unmerging for Efficient Variable-Length VLMs

Zhenhailong Wang, Senthil Purushwalkam, Caiming Xiong, Silvio Savarese, Heng Ji, Ran Xu

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We present DyMU, an efficient, training-free framework that dynamically reduces the computational burden of vision-language models (VLMs) while maintaining high task performance. Our approach comprises two key components. First, Dynamic Token Merging (DToMe) reduces the number of visual token embeddings by merging similar tokens based on image complexity, addressing the inherent inefficiency of fixed-length outputs in vision transformers. Second, Virtual Token Unmerging (VTU) simulates the expected token sequence for large language models (LLMs) by efficiently reconstructing the attention dynamics of a full sequence, thus preserving the downstream performance without additional fine-tuning. Unlike previous approaches, our method dynamically determines token length based on the *image content*—not just resolution—and operates completely training-free, making it readily applicable to most state-of-the-art VLM architectures. Extensive experiments on image and video understanding tasks, demonstrate that DyMU can reduce the average visual token count by 32%-85% while achieving comparable performance to full-length models, across diverse VLM architectures. Furthermore, qualitative analyses show that the adaptive token reduction from DToMe aligns well with human perception and enables users to better control computational costs through flexible integration with additional vision tools and models.

Poster
A Novel General Framework for Sharp Lower Bounds in Succinct Stochastic Bandits

Guo Zeng, Jean Honorio

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Many online learning applications adopt the stochastic bandit problem with a linear reward model, where the unknown parameter exhibits a succinct structure. We study minimax regret lower bounds which allow to know whether more efficient algorithms can be proposed. We introduce a general definition of succinctness and propose a novel framework for constructing minimax regret lower bounds based on an information-regret trade-off. When applied to entry-sparse vectors, our framework sharpens a recent lower bound by (Hao et al, NeurIPS 2020). We further apply our framework to derive novel results. To the best of our knowledge, we provide the first lower bounds for the group-sparse and low-rank matrix settings.

Poster
Unlocking SLM Potential for Data Analysis Code Generation via Non-Parametric Knowledge Distillation

Jinyang Li, Jack Williams, Nick McKenna, Arian Askari, Nicholas Wilson, Reynold Cheng

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Knowledge distillation from Large Language Models (LLMs) to locally hosted Small Language Models (SLMs) provides advantages for Data Analysis Code Generation (DACG) such as privacy protection. However, achieving effective distillation without resource-intensive training is challenging. This paper investigates whether LLMs can distill knowledge to SLMs through In-Context Learning (ICL), a training-free method for rapid task adaptation. We present the DarGO: Distillation and Adaptive Reasoning-Guided Orchestration framework, which facilitates automatic knowledge distillation from LLMs to SLMs. DarGO consists of three phases: exploration through an Model Orchestration Interface (MOI), Memory Collection of successful trajectories, and Knoweldge-driven Inference. We evaluate DarGO on three challenging DACG benchmarks (WikiTQ, TabMWP, and Bird-SQL), each with in-domain training sets that enable detailed analysis of knowledge distillation effectiveness. DarGO demonstrates a substantial relative performance improvement of 27.5\% on average for the student SLMs. To further observe generalization capabilities, we evaluate the \method across different teacher-student model combinations, knowledge transfer scenarios, and unified memory approaches for more advanced, test-only data analysis tasks. Our findings contribute a novel perspective on distillation methods that enhance high performance for SLMs while avoiding intensive fine-tuning.

Poster
Sampled Estimators For Softmax Must Be Biased

Li-Chung Lin, Yaxu Liu, Chih-Jen Lin

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Models requiring probabilistic outputs are ubiquitous and used in fields such as natural language processing, contrastive learning, and recommendation systems. The standard method of designing such a model is to output unconstrained logits, which are normalized into probabilities with the softmax function. The normalization involves computing a summation across all classes, which becomes prohibitively expensive for problems with a large number of classes. An important strategy to reduce the cost is to sum over a sampled subset of classes in the softmax function, known as the sampled softmax. It was known that the sampled softmax is biased; the expectation taken over the sampled classes is not equal to the softmax function. Many works focused on reducing the bias by using a better way of sampling the subset. However, while sampled softmax is biased, it is unclear whether an unbiased function different from sampled softmax exists. In this paper, we show that all functions that only access a sampled subset of classes must be biased. With this result, we prevent efforts in finding unbiased loss functions and validate that past efforts devoted to reducing bias are the best we can do.

Poster
Exploring Neural Granger Causality with xLSTMs: Unveiling Temporal Dependencies in Complex Data

Harsh Poonia, Felix Divo, Kristian Kersting, Devendra Singh Dhami

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Causality in time series can be challenging to determine, especially in the presence of non-linear dependencies. Granger causality helps analyze potential relationships between variables, thereby offering a method to determine whether one time series can predict—Granger cause—future values of another. Although successful, Granger causal methods still struggle with capturing long-range relations between variables. To this end, we leverage the recently successful Extended Long Short-Term Memory (xLSTM) architecture and propose Granger causal xLSTMs (GC-xLSTM). It first enforces sparsity between the time series components by using a novel dynamic loss penalty on the initial projection. Specifically, we adaptively improve the model and identify sparsity candidates. Our joint optimization procedure then ensures that the Granger causal relations are recovered robustly. Our experimental evaluation on six diverse datasets demonstrates the overall efficacy of GC-xLSTM.

Poster