NeurIPS 2026 论文列表

Prediction markets aggregate dispersed beliefs into prices that act as probabilistic forecasts of uncertain events. Classical theory establishes a clean equivalence between forecasting accuracy and trading profit, but only for the specific automated market maker (AMM) design. However, the largest exchanges today are based on central limit order books in which informed forecasters routinely lose money while uninformed strategies can profit on simple heuristics. We resolve this discrepancy by establishing a formal equivalence between predictive accuracy and profitability. For any strictly proper scoring rule $S$, we exhibit a ``proper'' betting strategy that depends only on the forecaster's prediction $\mathbf{p}$ and the market price $\mathbf{q}$ and earns positive expected profit whenever $\mathbf{p}$ outperforms $\mathbf{q}$ under $S$ and the market has sufficient liquidity. The proof rests on a decomposition of expected profit that strictly generalizes the classical AMM guarantee and also explains how strategies can profit without an accuracy edge. Empirically, across thousands of forecasts from AI models, proper betting is the only strategy that reliably converts accuracy into profit, and we further identify systematic forecasting personas and show how the optimal proper strategy varies across them. A month-long live deployment achieves $+80.33$% return on investment with a Sharpe ratio of $3.35$.

Latent Diffusion Models dominate generative modeling but face two-stage training complexity and the inherent reconstruction limits of pre-trained autoencoders. Pixel-space Flow Matching offers a simplified end-to-end alternative yet often encounters training instabilities when using the standard $v$-prediction objective. Recent research attributes this difficulty to the off-manifold nature of noised targets, prompting a widespread shift toward $x$-prediction. In this paper, we carefully investigate this prevailing assumption through patch-wise Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and we reveal that the failure of $v$-prediction is primarily a bandwidth issue. Specifically, the velocity field in minor components is mostly determined by the raw noisy input, which differs from the dynamics in the principal component space. Deep backbones must propagate this minor information to the final layer to predict the velocity field, which consumes significant model capacity that should be dedicated to principal components. This is particularly critical in pixel space where noise dimensionality is comparable to the hidden dimension. To resolve this, we simply incorporate a term containing the raw noisy input into the final layer. This architectural bypass enables the backbone to focus on high-level semantics while the final layer efficiently reconstructs the minor velocity field. Our method successfully revives $v$-prediction and achieves competitive performance on ImageNet $256\times256$ dataset compared to $x$-prediction baselines.

Current foundation models of electroencephalography (EEG) sought to characterize the fluctuations in neural signals, yet this objective stands fundamentally at odds with the intrinsic physiological mechanisms governing brain activity. As with their LLM predecessors, these models pack millions of neurons, even those contributing negligibly small weights, yielding a computational footprint incompatible with resource-constrained portable brain-computer interfaces (BCIs). To overcome these challenges, we propose *Vibe-Spike*, an energy-preserving and biologically-realistic EEG foundation model operating in the regime of oscillatory neural synchronization. Drawing on principles from cognitive neuroscience, our foundation model is designed to recover the masked EEG signals through the transient spikes of spatially coupled neurons, from which self-organized cortical synchronization (aka. *brain rhythms*) emerges to reciprocally modulate ongoing neural firings. Under the hood, we introduce a macro-micro learning mechanism that bridges two scales of neural computation: lower layers capture neural oscillations via a spiking neural network (SNN), while upper layers model oscillatory synchronization across large neuronal populations, with cross-scale interactions learned end-to-end. Taken together, our *Vibe-Spike* sheds new light on learning intrinsic representation of functional neural fluctuations. We pre-train the model to reconstruct segmented EEG signals directly from the synchronized spiking representations using a purely self-supervised objective on a diverse corpus of **75** public datasets. To demonstrate its universal representational power, we conduct massive-scale evaluations across ten heterogeneous downstream datasets, including clinical pathology, sleep staging, and cognitive assessment. *Vibe-Spike* not only facilitates deployment on portable edge devices through its lightweight architecture and energy-preserving inference, but also provides profound neuroscience insights. By further capturing pre- and post-synaptic firing, *Vibe-Spike* unlocks a new pathway for characterizing effective connectivity and the oscillatory synchronization that underpins cognition.

Recent advances in Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) increasingly rely on axial attention mechanisms, but despite their empirical success, the theoretical properties of axial attention remain largely unexplored. To bridge this gap, we extend the Single Location Regression framework introduced in Marion et al. [2025] to 2D structured data, in order to study sparse information settings where a target depends on a small number of tokens. We formulate an analytically tractable axial attention-type predictor and rigorously analyze its statistical properties and training dynamics. We prove that under a specific asymptotic regime and with knowledge of the underlying oracle parameters, our predictor achieves Bayes optimality, whereas a class of semi-linear simplifications strictly fails to do so, underlining the role of the inner non-linearity. We prove that for a specific temperature scaling, Projected Gradient Descent converges globally to the optimal oracle parameters. Extensive numerical experiments validate our theoretical findings and highlight the critical role of inverse temperature scheduling in empirical convergence.

Many deep learning models exhibit a double-descent phenomenon, where test loss exhibits a sharp peak near the interpolation threshold and then descends a second time as model size grows further, contrary to the U-shape predicted by the classical bias–variance tradeoff. The double-descent phenomenon has been found and explained in toy classical models, but is not well-understood in modern deep learning despite extensive empirical study. We interpret double descent through the novel lens of universal compression. Specifically, we upper bound the maximum-likelihood test loss as a sum of three terms: an approximation error, a minimax batch regret, and an MLE-vs-Bayes gap. We show that the minimax Bayes predictor, unlike the MLE, does not exhibit the double-descent peak. Furthermore, we isolate each term through experiments with uniform random labels, and show that double descent is primarily caused by the MLE-vs-Bayes gap in this setting; here, the MLE cross-entropy grows to be roughly five times larger at the double-descent peak, while the minimax Bayes predictor cross-entropy remains flat. Additionally, we show the possibility of a second ascent in test loss at very large model sizes, and motivate this theoretically through the minimax batch regret term of our decomposition.

Calibrated predictions are useful because their numerical values can be interpreted as probabilities. Calibration errors are therefore widely used to evaluate and compare probabilistic predictors. Recently, Haghtalab et al. [2024] introduced truthfulness as an additional requirement for such measures. A calibration measure is truthful if a predictor minimizes its expected measured error by reporting the true conditional label distribution. Many standard empirical calibration errors are non-truthful: a predictor may appear better calibrated by distorting its probabilities. We study the implications of truthful and non-truthful calibration errors for practice. First, we introduce perfectly truthful calibration errors for full multiclass calibration and classwise calibration, two standard multiclass notions. More generally, our construction applies to any linear property of the label distribution, generalizing the truthful calibration error for binary predictions in Hartline et al. [2025]. We also identify a truthful correction for confidence calibration. Second, we characterize the decision-theoretic implications of these truthful errors. For calibrated predictors, truthful calibration errors preserve the Blackwell dominance: a more informative calibrated predictor receives no larger expected error. Third, we show that this decision-theoretic interpretation explains and mitigates the well-observed ranking robustness problem of binned calibration errors. Empirically, non-truthful confidence-based errors can reverse model rankings when the number of bins changes, while our truthful classwise error gives more stable rankings across binning choices.

Decision Transformer performance degrades on long rollouts because the conditioning context drifts out of the training distribution. We show that this drift is visible through the model's own next state prediction error, which rises during rollout and stays elevated, giving a direct signal of when context has become unreliable. We introduce Trust Guided Decision Transformer (TGDT), which selects context before applying value guidance. At each step, TGDT evaluates several recent context suffixes using rolling next state prediction error, calibrated against held out offline data via split conformal prediction. It keeps only suffixes whose error stays within the calibrated threshold, then uses a frozen critic to choose the highest value action among the trusted suffixes. This reverses the order used by value only elastic selection, where the critic may choose an action generated from a context the model itself has flagged as unreliable. Experiments on D4RL navigation and locomotion tasks show that state prediction, critic guidance, and hard context reset each solve only part of the problem. TGDT reduces persistent high error runs and improves return over vanilla Decision Transformer, reset based context control, and value only context selection.

The cost of Kohn-Sham density functional theory (KS-DFT) calculations scales with the number of solver iterations, which depends on the quality of the initial guess. Machine learning methods that predict initial guesses from molecular geometry can reduce this cost, but matrix-prediction models fail when extrapolating to larger molecules, degrading rather than accelerating convergence [Liu et al., 2025]. We show that this failure is a supervision problem, not an extrapolation problem: models trained on ground-state targets fit those targets well out of distribution, yet produce initial guesses that slow convergence. Solver-Aligned Initialization Learning (SAIL) resolves this for both Hamiltonian and density matrix models by differentiating through the self-consistent field (SCF) solver end-to-end. We introduce the Effective Relative Iteration Count (ERIC), a correction to the commonly used RIC that accounts for hidden Fock-build overhead. On QM40, which contains molecules up to 4$\times$ larger than the training distribution, SAIL reduces ERIC by 37\% (PBE), 33\% (SCAN), and 28\% (B3LYP), more than doubling the previous state-of-the-art reduction on B3LYP. On QMugs molecules 10$\times$ larger than the training set, SAIL delivers a 1.35$\times$ wall-time speedup at the hybrid level of theory, extending ML SCF acceleration to large drug-like molecules.

Predicting gene expression from H\&E-stained histology images offers a scalable alternative to costly spatial transcriptomics, yet most existing methods operate at the spot level, where signals from multiple cells are aggregated and critical cellular heterogeneity is obscured. Extending this paradigm to single-cell resolution is non-trivial. Naively applying pathology foundation models faces a scale mismatch: their patch-level representations mix multiple cells, whereas per-cell cropping or resizing distorts morphology and removes local context. Conversely, segmentation-based models without strong pretrained visual encoders often lack the morphological representation capacity needed for accurate molecular prediction and inherit errors from imperfect cell boundary masks. Here, we present CELLO, an efficient end-to-end framework that performs a single pathology foundation model forward pass per image and uses grid sampling to extract location-specific features for all cells simultaneously. We further introduce a distance-decay cross-attention module that refines each cell representation using spatially biased local morphological context. Using 52 paired Xenium--WSI samples spanning 12 organs and approximately 10M cells, CELLO achieves state-of-the-art performance in both in-distribution and out-of-distribution settings while delivering at least a 7$\times$ inference speedup over DeepSpot2Cell. Our work establishes a scalable foundation for single-cell gene expression prediction from H\&E images.

Transformers use the same forward computation stream to both predict the next token and store useful state for future token predictions. We formulate the \emph{state-prediction separation hypothesis}: disentangling the two roles yields better language modeling performance. We design a Transformer variant that uses separate computation streams to separate the two functions, and conduct pretraining experiments across various scales. Our experiments show that state-prediction separation consistently offers better data-- and compute--efficiency, improving validation loss and outperforming standard Transformers by 2--3 percentage points on average on downstream tasks. We also conduct extensive empirical analysis that rules out potential confounders and demonstrates the fundamental difference in the gradients our design entails.

A central obstacle in nonlinear Bayesian filtering is representing the belief distribution. Moment-based filters address this by propagating polynomial moments and reconstructing a density from them. Recent work completes the predict-update loop via the maximum-entropy (MaxEnt) principle, but each step requires the partition function and its gradient, both $n$-dimensional integrals whose cost scales exponentially, restricting the demonstrated MaxEnt moment filtering to $n \le 4$. We avoid the partition function entirely by combining score matching with Stein's identity. In our setting, score matching reduces the density fit to a single linear solve whose coefficients are assembled directly from the propagated moments. The same parameters then drive Stein's identity to close the moment hierarchy during prediction and to recover posterior moments after each Bayesian update, keeping the full predict-update loop free of partition function evaluation. The resulting $\textbf{Score Kalman Filter}$ (SKF) reduces to the classical information-form Kalman filter as a special case and performs every step through linear algebra. On nonlinear coupled-oscillator networks, the SKF runs through $n=20$ and reports lower RMSE than the EKF, UKF, EnKF, and particle-filter baselines on the tested synthetic benchmarks.

Estimating element frequencies in data streams is a fundamental problem when processing large amounts of data. Recent approaches suggest learning-augmented algorithms that can access a heavy-hitter oracle that knows the most frequent elements. In this paper, we challenge the idea of these complex oracles: First, we show that heavy-hitter predictions do not necessarily yield significant efficiency gains in frequency estimation. We prove that a classical algorithm using slightly more memory, $\Theta(B \log B)$ instead of $\Theta(B)$, matches the performance of learning-augmented methods with perfect predictions. Furthermore, we show that given (perfect) predictions, a trivial mechanism achieves the same performance as state-of-the-art learning-augmented algorithms. On the algorithmic side, we introduce SpaceR, a single-pass algorithm that matches the accuracy of existing two-pass prediction-based methods without requiring any predictions. SpaceR uses randomized sampling to identify and track frequent elements in one pass through the data, achieving near-perfect frequency recovery with minimal memory on both synthetic and real-world datasets.

Sustainable protein discovery lacks the fast computational proxies, analogous to molecular docking or density functional theory, that accelerate drug and materials discovery. Evaluating whether a novel food tastes like its animal-based target requires expensive human sensory panels, bottlenecking the design-build-test loop. We introduce \textsc{TasteBench}, a multimodal benchmark and privacy-preserving competition for sensory prediction, spanning two tasks: a food-level ranking task built on 21K+ human evaluations across 215 plant-based foods in 24 product categories, yielding 935 within-category ranking pairs, and a supporting molecular-level taste classification task over 15K flavor molecules. To enable rigorous interpretation of model performance, we characterize the ground truth: inter-rater agreement among panelists is low (Krippendorff's $\alpha$ = .077), and the split-half reliability ceiling of panel-aggregated rankings is .825, establishing the range within which ML systems on this benchmark should be assessed. We evaluate baselines across four input modalities; on the same pairs panelists rated, the best model achieves .661 pairwise accuracy, competitive with the median individual panelist (.650). TasteBench provides the evaluation infrastructure and baselines for measuring progress on computational screening for sustainable protein discovery.

Long-tailed recognition remains challenging not only because rare classes provide limited supervision, but also because their evidence is difficult to accumulate during standard stochastic training. We characterize this failure as tail signal erosion: in conflict-dominant regimes, frequent-class updates can dilute sparse rare-class signals before they are sufficiently reinforced. To address this issue, we propose TailCon, a memory consolidation framework that separates rare-evidence acquisition from parametric integration. During online acquisition, TailCon stores uncertain or rare representations in detached episodic memory, while a parametric prediction pathway learns global decision structure. To avoid relying only on test-time retrieval, TailCon introduces FOCUS, a periodic consolidation stage that distills stored memory evidence into the parametric prediction head through a low-capacity alignment surrogate. We provide a local optimization analysis that scopes when this separation is beneficial in sparse-recurrence, conflict-dominant regimes. Experiments on CIFAR-100-LT, CIFAR-10-LT, ImageNet-LT, and iNaturalist 2018 show consistent improvements over representative rebalancing, decoupled, expert-based, and prototype-oriented baselines under the evaluated protocols. Memory-disabled inference further shows that part of the stored evidence is transferred into the parametric prediction head rather than remaining only in the retrieval branch. An anonymized implementation is included in the Supplementary Material.

Survival analysis provides a powerful statistical framework for modeling time-to-event outcomes in the presence of censoring. However, selecting an appropriate estimator from the many specialized survival approaches often requires substantial methodological and domain expertise. We introduce SurvivalPFN, a prior-data fitted network that amortizes Bayesian inference for censored observations through in-context learning. SurvivalPFN is pretrained on a diverse family of synthetic, identifiable, and right-censored data-generating processes, enabling it to amortize survival analysis in a single forward pass during inference. As a result, the model adapts to the effective complexity of each dataset without task-specific training or hyperparameter tuning, avoids restrictive parametric assumptions, and produces calibrated survival distributions. In a large-scale benchmark spanning 61 survival datasets, 21 methods, and 5 evaluation metrics, SurvivalPFN achieves strong predictive performance and often improves upon established survival models. These results suggest that SurvivalPFN offers a principled and practical foundation model for survival analysis, with potential applications in high-impact domains such as healthcare, finance, and engineering.

We analyze support mismatch in language-model in-context prediction as a frozen-prior Bayes benchmark with finite discrete support. The goal is diagnostic rather than literal: we do not identify production LMs with exact Bayesian updating, but characterize a failure mode whose signatures can be checked in learned in-context predictors. Our main theorem gives the finite-sample predictor-risk bound $R_k^\pi \le C e^{-k\rho_{\min}} + 2\varepsilon_{\mathrm{approx}}^2$, so risk decomposes into an exponentially decaying transient and a nonvanishing support-mismatch floor under exponential-moment control of log-likelihood ratios. In scalar and aligned Gaussian location families, exact two-component analyses match the upper exponent up to a tight factor 2 and show a regime change at $\mu_2=3\mu_1$. Controlled learned-model experiments track the benchmark near crossover. Decoder-only LM diagnostics then test the benchmark signatures: restricted support creates a persistent high-error regime; restoring the missing support sharply lowers error; and modern size-matched distractor controls on Qwen and Llama show that adding a wrong same-cardinality candidate does not reproduce this gain. Multiple-choice, instruction-tuned, cross-family, calibration, null-control, and near-tie checks preserve the same diagnostic picture.

Protein language models (PLMs) provide valuable evolutionary priors for fitness estimation, but may be misaligned with empirical measurements due to context-dependent selective pressures, potentially leading to hallucination-like predictions under limited experimental supervision. In this study, we introduce MmProt, a structure-prompted Multimodal Protein Language Model for preference-aligned fitness prediction with limited experimentally grounded supervision. MmProt adopts a two-stage multimodal learning strategy: contrastive pre-training on 40 million sequence--structure pairs to learn informative multimodal representations, followed by structure-prompted masked language modeling on naturally occurring related variants to capture protein-specific evolutionary constraints. When limited fitness measurements are available, MmProt further calibrates its variant preferences by encouraging the model to rank high-fitness variants above low-fitness variants. Extensive experiments across multiple benchmarks show that MmProt: (i) achieves state-of-the-art average performance on fitness prediction across 11 diverse protein targets under two challenging extrapolation settings, improving over the best-performing PLM baselines by 3.2% and 13.5% on average, respectively; (ii) captures protein-specific evolutionary patterns in a case study of the SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein, where its zero-shot predictions outperform leading PLMs fine-tuned on 512 fitness-labeled variants by a relative improvement of 3.2%; and (iii) delivers competitive results on eight downstream protein representation learning tasks. Together, these results highlight MmProt's potential as a practical tool for investigating protein evolution and supporting broader applications in protein modeling. Code and data are available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/MmProt-239E/.

Tabular prediction has long been dominated by gradient-boosted decision trees and specialized deep tabular models, while large language models (LLMs) remain difficult to make competitive despite their cross-task adaptability and transparent reasoning traces. Existing LLM-for-tabular methods mainly adapt tables into textual inputs, but often fail to capture key structural properties of tabular data. In this work, we propose Permutation Relative Policy Optimization (PRPO), a reinforcement learning post-training method that strengthens LLMs for tabular prediction by injecting column-permutation invariance as a structural prior. By constructing label-preserving column permutations and estimating advantages both within and across them, PRPO converts sparse outcome rewards into denser and more stable optimization signals. Extensive experiments on 139 OpenML datasets show that our 8B model reaches a genuinely competitive regime against strong specialized tabular baselines. It achieves strong fully supervised performance, dominates cross-dataset zero-shot settings, and performs on par with 32-shot strong baselines. Moreover, it substantially outperforms much larger general-purpose and reasoning LLMs, including up to a 53.17% improvement over DeepSeek-R1 (685B). These results show that structural-prior RL post-training is an effective route for making LLMs competitive in tabular prediction.

Conformal prediction offers a distribution-free coverage guarantee, making it especially attractive for clinical applications. Standard conformal prediction, however, provides such guarantees only at the population level, and its prediction sets can exhibit coverage disparities across clinically important subgroups. A natural remedy is to calibrate within predefined groups. However, this can require access to sensitive subgroup attributes and is prone to a worst-group bottleneck: protecting the most difficult subgroup can inflate prediction sets for all, increasing cognitive burden on decision makers. To this end, we propose Stochastic Grouping Conformal Prediction (SGCP), a conformal framework for subgroup-reliable uncertainty quantification. It learns a stochastic grouping map that allows each sample to draw calibration information from others with similar calibration behavior, yielding a local score law that boosts reliability across subpopulations. We prove that SGCP retains the standard coverage guarantee. Experiments on synthetic and real-world benchmarks show that it consistently reduces subgroup coverage gaps while achieving smaller or comparable prediction set sizes relative to existing baselines.