ICML 2026 论文列表

Accurate climate forecasting provides critical support for decision-making in agriculture, energy, and disaster preparedness. Current deterministic models often fail to capture climate uncertainty, while existing generative approaches oversimplify the system by neglecting key spatiotemporal dependencies and cross-scale interactions. To address these limitations, we introduce ClimateAR, an AutoRegressive generative model for probabilistic seasonal-to-interannual Climate forecasting. The framework incorporates two novel components: (1) an aligned tokenizer that bridges and aligns heterogeneous simulation and real-world data to improve transferability across domains, and (2) a mixed-scale conditioning mechanism that captures multi-scale climate interactions for robust probabilistic forecasting. Extensive evaluations on the ERA5 reanalysis dataset show that ClimateAR achieves state-of-the-art performance, improving anomaly correlation skill by 37.56\% on average compared to leading baselines.

The increasing impact of climate change and extreme weather events has spurred growing interest in deep learning for weather research. However, existing studies often rely on weather data in pixel space, which presents several challenges such as smooth outputs in model outputs, limited applicability to a single pressure-variable subset (PVS), and high data storage and computational costs. To address these challenges, we propose a novel Weather Latent Autoencoder (WLA) that transforms weather data from pixel space to latent space, enabling efficient data representation. By decoupling weather reconstruction from downstream tasks, WLA improves the accuracy and sharpness of weather task model results. The incorporated Pressure-Variable Unified Module transforms multiple PVS into a unified representation, enhancing the adaptability of the model in multiple weather scenarios. Furthermore, weather tasks can be performed in a low-storage latent space of WLA rather than a high-storage pixel space, thus significantly reducing data storage and computational costs. Through extensive experimentation, we demonstrate its superior compression and reconstruction performance, enabling the creation of the ERA5-Latent dataset with unified representations of multiple PVS from ERA5 data. The compressed full PVS in the ERA5-Latent dataset reduces the original 244.34 TB of data to 0.43 TB. The downstream task further demonstrates that task models can apply to multiple PVS with low data costs in latent space and achieve superior performance compared to models in pixel space.