ICML 2026 论文列表

International Conference on Machine Learning

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6,341篇论文

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Optimal Bayesian Stopping for Efficient Inference of Consistent LLM Answers

Jingkai Huang, Will Ma, Zhengyuan Zhou

展开摘要

A simple strategy for improving LLM accuracy, especially in math and reasoning problems, is to sample multiple responses and submit the answer most consistently reached. In this paper we leverage Bayesian prior information to save on sampling costs, stopping once sufficient consistency is reached. Although the exact posterior is computationally intractable, we further introduce an efficient ``$L$-aggregated'' stopping policy that tracks only the $L-1$ most frequent answer counts. Theoretically, we prove that $L=3$ is all you need: this coarse approximation is sufficient to achieve asymptotic optimality, and strictly dominates prior-free baselines, while having a fast posterior computation. Empirically, this identifies the most consistent (i.e., mode) LLM answer and achieves similar answer accuracy using fewer samples.

Poster
SpeedCP: Fast Kernel-based Conditional Conformal Prediction

Yating Liu, Yeo Jin Jung, Zixuan Wu, Sowon Jeong, Claire Donnat

展开摘要

Conformal prediction provides distribution-free prediction sets with finite-sample conditional guarantees. RKHS-based frameworks—while promising for complex covariate shifts—suffer from prohibitive computational costs. To guarantee conditional validity under such shifts while ensuring feasibility, we build upon the framework of Gibbs et al. (2025) by introducing a stable and efficient algorithm that computes the full solution path of the regularized RKHS conformal optimization problem, at essentially the same cost as a single kernel quantile fit. Our approach provides simultaneous hyperparameter tuning which provides smoothness control and data-adaptive calibration. To extend the method to high-dimensional settings, we further integrate our approach with low-rank latent embeddings that capture conditional validity in a data-driven latent space. Empirically, our method provides reliable conditional coverage across a variety of modern black-box predictors, improving the interval length of Gibbs et al. (2025) by 30%, while achieving a 40-fold speedup.

Poster
Scaling Laws and Architectural Frontiers in Metagenomic Foundation Models

Geraldene Munsamy, Gavin Ayres, Jérémie DONA, Carla Greco, Daniel Anderson, Srijani Sridhar, William Chow, Aaron W Kollasch, Robert J. Pecoraro, Tanggis Bohnuud, Keith Kam, Gus Minto-Cowcher, Marcus H Y Leung, Hassan Sirelkhatim, John St. John, Ali Taghibakhshi, Tyler C. Shimko, Jared Wilber, Timur Rvachov, Saee Gopal Paliwal, Eduardo Calleja, Noelia Ferruz, Kevin K Yang, Philipp Lorenz, Francesco Farina

展开摘要

Foundation models for genomics have the potential to revolutionize therapeutic design, yet the optimal architectural choices for modeling the vast and diverse distribution of metagenomic data remain under-explored. In this work, we present the machine learning methodology behind EDEN, a family of metagenomic foundation models scaled up to 28 billion parameters and trained on 9.7 trillion nucleotide tokens. We provide a systematic empirical study of architectural trade-offs between autoregressive Transformers (Llama-style), State-Space Models (Mamba), and Long-convolutional architectures (Hyena) for nucleotide-level modeling. Contrary to recent trends favoring linear-time sequence models for long-range biological data, we demonstrate that the Llama architecture exhibits superior scaling efficiency and semantic retrieval capabilities as the model capacity grows. We derive a set of quality-aware scaling laws for metagenomics, showing how model performance follows predictable power-law behavior across three orders of magnitude in parameters and data. Through extensive benchmarking, spanning unsupervised zeroshot fitness prediction, semantic completion, and gene recovery, we establish a blueprint for scaling biological foundation models and provide empirical evidence demonstrating why Transformer-based architectures define the current frontier.

Poster
Adaptive Momentum and Nonlinear Damping for Neural Network Training

Aikaterini Karoni, Rajit Rajpal, Benedict J. Leimkuhler, Gabriel Stoltz

展开摘要

Momentum Stochastic Gradient Descent (mSGD) relies on a fixed momentum coefficient shared across all parameters, failing to account for the heterogeneous structure of modern loss landscapes. In this work, we adopt a continuous-time formulation to introduce individual, adaptive momentum coefficients regulated by the kinetic energy of each model parameter. This mechanism automatically adjusts to evolving training dynamics to maintain stability without sacrificing convergence speed. We demonstrate that this adaptive friction is inextricably linked to cubic damping, a suppression mechanism from structural dynamics. We additionally introduce two optimization schemes by augmenting the continuous dynamics of mSGD and Adam with a cubic damping term. Empirically, our methods demonstrate robustness and match or outperform Adam on training ViT, BERT, and GPT2 tasks where mSGD typically struggles. We further provide theoretical results establishing the exponential convergence of the proposed schemes.

Poster
Rank-Aware Spectral Bounds on Attention Logits for Stable Low-Precision Training

Seyed Morteza Emadi

展开摘要

Attention scores in transformers are bilinear forms $S_{ij} = x_i^\top M x_j / \sqrt{d_h}$ whose maximum magnitude governs overflow risk in low-precision training. We derive a \emph{rank-aware concentration inequality}: when the interaction matrix $M = W^Q W^{K\top}$ has rank $r \ll d$, tail probabilities for $\max_{i,j}|S_{ij}|$ decay as $\exp(-d^{2}\alpha^{2}/(\gamma r))$ rather than $\exp(-d\alpha^{2})$, where $\gamma > 1$. For transformer attention where $r = d_h$, this yields $8$--$28\times$ tighter concentration than rank-agnostic bounds in modern architectures. We apply this result to FP8 training, deriving \emph{geometry-aware scale factors} that provide principled overflow guarantees without observing activations. The method computes per-layer scales from the spectral norm $\|W^Q W^{K\top}\|_2$ via implicit power iteration, includes a grouped query attention formulation that avoids key expansion, and remains compatible with fused attention kernels. Across GPT-2 XL to Llama-2-70B, geometry-aware scaling eliminates overflows in transient scenarios where delayed scaling fails, while achieving comparable downstream MMLU accuracy.

Poster
Tailoring Strictly Proper Scoring Rules for Downstream Tasks: An Application to Causal Inference

Roman Plaud, Alexandre Perez-Lebel, Antoine Saillenfest, Thomas Bonald, Marine Le Morvan, Gaël Varoquaux, Matthieu Labeau

展开摘要

Probabilistic models are typically trained using task-agnostic objectives like log-loss, which can lead to significant errors in downstream estimation. This disconnect is especially critical in Inverse Probability Weighting (IPW) for causal inference, where propensity score errors near $0$ and $1$ often lead to high bias and variance. We propose a principled framework for deriving task-specific strictly proper scoring rules by matching the local curvature of the downstream error metric. We apply this to the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) estimation, deriving a closed-form loss and its corresponding canonical probability mapping that can be readily integrated with any model like a neural network or a gradient boosting algorithm. Extensive evaluations on causal inference benchmarks demonstrate that our tailored objective consistently outperforms standard likelihood-based and covariate-balancing approaches.

Poster
Platonic Transformers: A Solid Choice For Equivariance

Mohammad Mohaiminul Islam, Rishabh Anand, David R Wessels, Friso de Kruiff, Thijs P. Kuipers, Rex Ying, Clara I. Sánchez, Sharvaree Vadgama, Georg Bökman, Erik J Bekkers

展开摘要

While widespread, Transformers lack inductive biases for geometric symmetries common in science and computer vision. Existing equivariant methods often sacrifice the efficiency and flexibility that make Transformers so effective through complex, computationally intensive designs. We introduce the Platonic Transformer to resolve this trade-off. By defining attention relative to reference frames from the Platonic solid symmetry groups, our method induces a principled weight-sharing scheme. This enables combined equivariance to continuous translations and Platonic symmetries, while preserving the exact architecture and computational cost of a standard Transformer. Furthermore, we show that this attention is formally equivalent to a dynamic group convolution, which reveals that the model learns adaptive geometric filters and enables a *highly scalable, linear-time convolutional variant*. Across diverse benchmarks in computer vision (CIFAR-10), 3D point clouds (ScanObjectNN), and molecular dynamics, property prediction and generation (OMol25, ProteinMD, QM9), the Platonic Transformer achieves competitive performance by leveraging these geometric constraints at no additional cost.

Poster
How RL Unlocks the Aha Moment in Geometric Interleaved Reasoning

Xiangxiang Zhang, Caijun Jia, Siyuan Li, he dingyu, Xiya Xiong, Zheng Sun, Honghao He, Yuchen Wu, Bihui Yu, Linzhuang Sun, Cheng Tan, Jingxuan Wei

展开摘要

Solving complex geometric problems inherently requires interleaved reasoning: a tight alternation between constructing diagrams and performing logical deductions. Although recent Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have demonstrated strong capabilities in visual generation and plotting, we identify a counter-intuitive and underexplored phenomenon. Naively applying Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) on interleaved plot–solution data leads to a substantial degradation in reasoning performance compared to text-only baselines. We argue that this failure stems from a fundamental limitation of SFT, which primarily induces distributional alignment: the model learns to reproduce the surface format of interleaved plotting but fails to internalize the causal dependency between the generated plot and reasoning steps. To overcome this limitation, we propose Faire (**F**unctional **a**lignment for **i**nterleaved **re**asoning), a reinforcement learning framework that enforces three casual constraints to move beyond superficial imitation toward functional alignment. Extensive experiments show that Faire induces a qualitative shift in model behavior in which the plotting is effectively internalized, yielding competitive performance on challenging geometric reasoning benchmarks.

Spotlight
PPI Candidate Ranking: Large-Scale Evaluation of a Domain Knowledge–Guided Pipeline

Maria Emilia Russo, Federico Di Valerio, Alessia Borghini, Alessio Ragno, Roberto Capobianco

展开摘要

Computational approaches have become central to Protein–Protein Interaction (PPI) research, complementing experimental techniques that remain costly and incomplete. While modern deep learning methods capture diverse biological signals and hold promise in expanding the known interactome, empirical validation remains a critical bottleneck due to its long and expensive procedures. To address this challenge, we introduce the problem of PPI candidate ranking, aiming to prioritize interactions for experimental testing. We propose a novel framework that leverages domain knowledge through interpretability-guided ranking and further refines prioritization by integrating complementary sources of evidence, including interaction scores, structural plausibility, and biomedical language features. Evaluations on a large-scale dataset constructed from successive STRING releases demonstrate that our approach yields significant improvements over two state-of-the-art PPI prediction models, providing more accurate and biologically coherent rankings.

Poster
SURGE: Approximation and Training Free Particle Filter for Diffusion Surrogate

Lifu Wei, Yinuo Ren, Naichen Shi, Yiping Lu

展开摘要

Data assimilation (DA) tackles the sequential estimation of a dynamical system’s latent state from noisy, partial observations. In this paper, we study DA in a setting where the system dynamics are represented by a pretrained diffusion model used as a surrogate forecaster. We focus on how to integrate incoming observations into the diffusion surrogate’s predictions to support continuous state correction and progressively refining the estimated trajectory over time. After receiving noisy observations, the diffusion model is guided using the observation likelihood to steer the generation process toward observation-consistent states. However, such guidance does not guarantee sampling from the true posterior. Motivated by particle filtering methods, we represent the posterior distribution using an ensemble of particles. We perform Sequential Monte Carlo over diffusion trajectories, working with their path measure. We compute importance weights for generated particles and resample to focus on trajectories consistent with the observations. This procedure corrects the generation dynamics, drives the particle approximation toward the desired posterior and leads to an approximation-free particle filtering method that rigorously fuses observational data with diffusion model simulations.

Poster
Principled Synthetic Data Enables the First Scaling Laws for LLMs in Recommendation

Benyu Zhang, Qiang Zhang, Jianpeng Cheng, Hong-You Chen, QIFEI WANG, Wei Sun, Shen Li, Jia Li, Jiahao Wu, Xiangjun Fan, Hong Yan

展开摘要

Large Language Models (LLMs) represent a promising frontier for recommender systems, yet their development has been impeded by the absence of predictable scaling laws, which are crucial for guiding research and optimizing resource allocation. We hypothesize that this may be attributed to the inherent noise, bias, and incompleteness of raw user interaction data in prior continual pre-training (CPT) efforts. This paper introduces a novel, layered framework for generating high-quality synthetic data that circumvents such issues by creating a curated, pedagogical curriculum for the LLM. We provide powerful, direct evidence for the utility of our curriculum by showing that standard sequential models trained on our principled synthetic data significantly outperform ($+130\%$ on recall@100 for SasRec) models trained on real data in downstream ranking tasks, demonstrating its superiority for learning generalizable user preference patterns. Building on this, we empirically demonstrate, for the first time, robust power-law scaling for an LLM that is continually pre-trained on our high-quality, recommendation-specific data. Our experiments reveal consistent and predictable perplexity reduction across multiple synthetic data modalities. These findings establish a foundational methodology for reliable scaling LLM capabilities in the recommendation domain, thereby shifting the research focus from mitigating data deficiencies to leveraging high-quality, structured information.

Poster
A Provable Expressiveness Hierarchy in Hybrid Linear-Full Attention

Xiaowei Ye, Xiaoyu He, Chao Liao, Chen Wu, Pinyan Lu

展开摘要

Transformers serve as the foundation of most modern large language models. To mitigate the quadratic complexity of standard full attention, various efficient attention mechanisms, such as linear and hybrid attention, have been developed. A fundamental gap remains: their expressive power relative to full attention lacks a rigorous theoretical characterization. In this work, we theoretically characterize the performance differences among these attention mechanisms. Our theory applies to all linear attention variants that can be formulated as a recurrence, including Mamba, DeltaNet, etc. Specifically, we establish an expressiveness hierarchy: for the sequential function composition-a multi-step reasoning task that must occur within a model’s forward pass, an $(L+1)$-layer full attention network is sufficient, whereas any hybrid network interleaving $L-1$ layers of full attention with a substantially larger number ($2^{3L^2}$) of linear attention layers cannot solve it. This result demonstrates a clear separation in expressive power between the two types of attention. Our work provides the first provable separation between hybrid attention and standard full attention, offering a theoretical perspective for understanding the fundamental capabilities and limitations of different attention mechanisms.

Poster
Parameter-Masked Decoupled Optimization for Cross-Domain Class-Incremental Learning

Ziqi Gu, Chunyan Xu, Yangguang Liu, Wenxuan Fang, Baotong Su, Tong Zhang, Dan Wang, Zhen Cui

展开摘要

Cross-domain class-incremental learning (CD-CIL) requires models to continuously acquire new classes across shifting domains while retaining previously learned knowledge. Existing approaches often entangle what to update with how to update, resulting in unstable adaptation and severe forgetting under domain shifts. Inspired by the hippocampal learning mechanism that separates rapid adaptation from stable consolidation, we propose Parameter-Masked Decoupled Optimization (PMDO) that disentangles what knowledge is adapted from how learning proceeds in cross-domain class-incremental learning. We introduce a domain-aware knowledge decoupler that selectively adapts domain-relevant shared parameters, constraining incremental updates while preserving prior representations. To regulate how learning proceeds, we further design a stability-aware trajectory regulation that guides optimization along transferable and stable optimization trajectories, thereby reducing interference across domain transitions. PMDO enables effective cross-domain adaptation while mitigating catastrophic forgetting and maintaining long-term learnability. Extensive experiments across multiple benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of PMDO and its superiority over state-of-the-art methods.

Poster
Divergence Decoding: Inference-Time Unlearning via Auxiliary Models

Humzah Merchant, Bradford Levy

展开摘要

Large Language Models (LLMs) frequently memorize sensitive training data thereby creating significant privacy and copyright risks. Addressing these risks, i.e., removing such knowledge from an existing model checkpoint, has proven challenging as many unlearning methods lead to catastrophic utility loss or are ineffective for complex queries. We introduce **Divergence Decoding (DD)**, a mechanism that uses small auxiliary models to steer the logits of the LLM away from specific data during inference. Training these models is straight forward, i.e., we use standard pre-training and fine-tuning setups. We find the method decisively outperforms state-of-the-art (SOTA) baselines on unlearning benchmarks across a variety of model and training dataset scales consistent with DD being an effective and inexpensive solution to unlearning. We then demonstrate that this steered distribution can be trivially distilled back into the base model. Since the method is generally applicable to any probabilistic model, we explore its efficacy outside of text generation and find evidence of generalization to the domain of images.

Poster
Context-free Recognition with Transformers

Selim Jerad, Anej Svete, Sophie Hao, Ryan Cotterell, William Merrill

展开摘要

Transformers excel empirically on tasks that process well-formed inputs according to some grammar, such as natural language and code. However, it remains unclear how they can process grammatical syntax. In fact, under standard complexity conjectures, standard transformers cannot recognize context-free languages (CFLs), a canonical formalism to describe syntax, or even regular languages, a subclass of CFLs. Past work has shown that $\mathcal{O}(\log(N))$ looping layers (w.r.t. input length $N$) allow transformers to recognize regular languages, but the question of context-free recognition with looped transformers remained open. In this work, we show that looped transformers with $\mathcal{O}(\log(N))$ looping layers and $\mathcal{O}(N^6)$ padding symbols can recognize all CFLs. However, training and inference with $\mathcal{O}(N^6)$ padding symbols is potentially impractical. Fortunately, we show that, for natural subclasses such as unambiguous CFLs, the recognition problem on transformers becomes more tractable, requiring $\mathcal{O}(N^3)$ padding. Empirically, looped and padded transformers perform better than fixed-depth transformers in recognizing CFLs. Overall, our results shed light on the intricacy of CFL recognition by transformers: while general recognition may require an intractable amount of padding, natural constraints such as unambiguity yield efficient recognition algorithms.

Poster
V1: Unifying Generation and Self-Verification for Parallel Reasoners

Harman Singh, Xiuyu Li, Kusha Sareen, Monishwaran Maheswaran, Sijun Tan, Xiaoxia Wu, Junxiong Wang, Alpay Ariyak, Qingyang Wu, Samir Khaki, Rishabh Tiwari, Long Lian, Yucheng Lu, Boyi Li, Alane Suhr, Ben Athiwaratkun, Kurt Keutzer

展开摘要

Test-time scaling for complex reasoning tasks shows that leveraging inference-time compute, by methods such as independently sampling and aggregating multiple solutions, results in significantly better task outcomes. However, a critical bottleneck is *verification*: sampling is only effective if correct solutions can be reliably identified among candidates. While existing approaches typically evaluate candidates independently via scalar scoring, we demonstrate that models are substantially stronger at **pairwise verification**. Leveraging this insight, we introduce **V₁**, a framework that unifies generation and verification through efficient pairwise ranking. V₁ comprises two components: **V₁-Infer**, an uncertainty-guided algorithm using a tournament-based ranking that dynamically allocates self-verification compute to candidate pairs whose relative correctness is most uncertain; and **V₁-PairRL**, an RL framework that **jointly trains** a single model as both generator and pairwise self-verifier, ensuring the verifier adapts to the generator's evolving distribution. On competitive code generation, SWE and terminal-based agents, math reasoning, and medical QA benchmarks, V₁-Infer improves Pass@1 by up to 10% over pointwise verification and outperforms SoTA aggregation-based test-time scaling while being more efficient. Furthermore, V₁-PairRL achieves test-time scaling gains of 3.8–10pp over standard RL and pointwise joint training on code, math, and non-verifiable domains, and improves base Pass@1 by up to 8.7pp over standard RL. [Project page & code](https://harmandotpy.github.io/v1-verification/).

Poster
XR-1: Towards Versatile Vision-Language-Action Models via Learning Unified Vision-Motion Representations

Shichao Fan, Kun Wu, Zhengping Che, Xinhua Wang, Di Wu, Fei Liao, Ning Liu, Yixue Zhang, Zhen Zhao, Zhiyuan Xu, Meng Li, Qingjie Liu, Shanghang Zhang, Min Wan, Jian Tang

展开摘要

Recent progress in large-scale robotic datasets and vision-language models (VLMs) has advanced research on vision-language-action (VLA) models. However, existing VLA models still face two fundamental challenges: (\textit{i}) producing precise low-level actions from high-dimensional observations, (\textit{ii}) bridging domain gaps across heterogeneous data sources, including diverse robot embodiments and human demonstrations. Existing methods often encode latent variables from either visual dynamics or robotic actions to guide policy learning, but they fail to fully exploit the complementary multi-modal knowledge present in large-scale, heterogeneous datasets. In this work, we present \textbf{XR-1}, a novel framework for versatile and scalable VLA learning across diverse robots, tasks, and environments. At its core, XR-1 introduces the \emph{Unified Vision-Motion Codes (UVMC)}, a discrete latent representation learned via a dual-branch VQ-VAE that jointly encodes visual dynamics and robotic motion. UVMC addresses these challenges by (\textit{i}) serving as an intermediate representation between the observations and actions, and (\textit{ii}) aligning multimodal dynamic information from heterogeneous data sources to capture complementary knowledge. To effectively exploit UVMC, we propose a \emph{three-stage training paradigm}: (\textit{i}) self-supervised UVMC learning, (\textit{ii}) UVMC-guided pretraining on large-scale cross-embodiment robotic datasets, and (\textit{iii}) task-specific post-training. We validate XR-1 through extensive real-world experiments with more than 12,000 rollouts on six different robot embodiments, spanning over 120 diverse manipulation tasks. XR-1 consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines such as $\pi_0$ and GR00T-N1.5 while demonstrating strong generalization to novel objects, background variations, distractors, and illumination changes. Our project is at \href{https://xr-1-vla.github.io/}{https://xr-1-vla.github.io/}.

Spotlight
ConvexBench: Can LLMs Recognize Convex Functions?

Yepeng Liu, Yu Huang, Yu-Xiang Wang, Yingbin Liang, Yuheng Bu

展开摘要

Convexity recognition plays a central role in many optimization, control, and learning problems. However, the ability of Large Language Models (LLMs) to identify this property in symbolic expressions remains unexamined. We introduce ConvexBench, a scalable and mechanically verifiable benchmark for testing whether LLMs can determine the convexity of a symbolic objective under deep functional composition. Experiments on frontier LLMs reveal a sharp \textit{compositional reasoning gap}: performance degrades rapidly with increasing depth, dropping from an F1-score of $1.0$ at depth $2$ to approximately $0.2$ at depth $100$. Inspection of models' reasoning traces indicates two failure modes: \textit{parsing failure} and \textit{lazy reasoning}. To address these limitations, we propose an agentic divide-and-conquer framework that (i) offloads parsing to an external tool to construct an abstract syntax tree (AST) and (ii) enforces recursive reasoning over each intermediate sub-expression with focused context. This framework reliably mitigates deep-composition failures, achieving substantial performance improvement at large depths (e.g., F1-Score $= 1.0$ at depth $100$).

Poster
A Language-Guided Bayesian Optimization for Efficient LoRA Hyperparameter Search

Baek Seong-Eun, Lee Jung-Mok, Kim Sung-Bin, Tae-Hyun Oh

展开摘要

Fine-tuning Large Language Models (LLMs) with Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) offers a resource-efficient way to personalize or specialize. However, LoRA is highly sensitive to hyperparameter choices, and exhaustive hyperparameter search is computationally expensive. To address this, we propose a Bayesian Optimization (BO) framework that leverages the domain knowledge of pre-trained LLMs to efficiently search for LoRA hyperparameters. Our approach repurposes a pre-trained LLM as a discrete-to-continuous mapping module to link hyperparameters and their domain knowledge to a continuous vector space, where BO is conducted. We design and control the mapping via language prompting, providing a domain-aware textual prompt that describes the relationships among hyperparameters and their respective roles. This allows us to explicitly inject domain knowledge about LoRA into the LLM in natural language. We also introduce an additional learnable token to capture residual information that is difficult to describe linguistically in the prompt. This aids BO to sample more high-performing hyperparameters. In addition, by leveraging the strong correlation observed between the performance obtained from full and subset training datasets in LoRA training regimes, we introduce proxy training and evaluation using a data subset. This significantly improves the efficiency of our method. We demonstrate that our hyperparameter, discovered with only about 30 iterations, achieves more than 20% performance improvement over standard hyperparameters found from about 45,000 combinations. Project page: https://baekseongeun.github.io/lora-bo/

Poster
Cache Coherent Resampling for Efficient Test Time Scaling in LLM Reasoning via Adaptive Sequential Monte Carlo

Ke Wang, Zehao Yu, Luwei Wang, Yongchao Huang

展开摘要

Recent work shows that chain based sampling for power shaped trajectory distributions can deliver large test time gains from a fixed base LLM and can approach RL trained reasoners such as GRPO. Deployment is the bottleneck. Autoregressive Metropolis Hastings is inherently serial, limits GPU utilization, and exhibits extreme tail latency at high budgets, reaching p95 $=1318$s on MATH500 at $128\times$. We propose Adaptive Sequential Monte Carlo (ASMC), a parallel particle inference method that targets power shaped trajectory distributions while adapting particle populations to problem hardness. To make resampling practical for Transformers, we introduce cache coherent resampling, which realizes ancestry updates by reordering KV caches and other particle bound tensors, avoiding prefix recomputation. On MATH500 at the same budget, ASMC attains 80.6\% exact-match accuracy with p95 = 73.7s, substantially reducing the tail latency of sequential MCMC and providing additional high-accuracy operating points beyond the saturation of best-of-n. We further analyze particle degeneracy and find that collapse severity, measured by low $\mathrm{ESS}_{\min}/N$, strongly predicts failures, while sensitivity to the resampling scheme is limited.

Poster