ICML 2026 论文列表

Deep learning has achieved strong performance in Time Series Forecasting (TSF). However, we identify a critical representation paradox, termed Latent Chaos: models with accurate predictions often learn latent representations that are temporally disordered and lack continuity. We attribute this to the dominant observation-space forecasting paradigm, where minimizing point-wise errors on noisy and partially observed data encourages shortcut solutions instead of the recovery of underlying system dynamics. To address this, we propose Latent Time Series Forecasting (LatentTSF), a paradigm that shifts TSF from observation regression to latent state prediction. LatentTSF employs an AutoEncoder to project each observation into a learned latent state space and performs forecasting entirely in this space, allowing the model to focus on learning structured temporal dynamics. We provide an information-theoretic analysis showing that the latent objectives can be motivated as surrogates for maximizing mutual information between predicted and ground-truth latent states and future observations. Extensive experiments on widely-used benchmarks confirm that LatentTSF effectively mitigates latent chaos, yielding consistent improvements in both forecasting accuracy and representation quality. Our code is available at [https://github.com/Muyiiiii/LatentTSF](https://github.com/Muyiiiii/LatentTSF).

Natural Language Querying for Time Series Databases (NLQ4TSDB) aims to assist non-expert users retrieve meaningful events, intervals, and summaries from massive temporal records. However, existing Text-to-SQL methods are not designed for continuous morphological intents such as shapes or anomalies, while time series models struggle to handle ultra-long histories. To address these challenges, we propose Sonar-TS, a neuro-symbolic framework that tackles NLQ4TSDB via a "Search-Then-Verify" pipeline. Analogous to active sonar, it utilizes a feature index to "ping'' candidate windows via SQL, followed by generated Python programs to "lock on'' and verify candidates against raw signals. To enable effective evaluation, we introduce NLQTSBench, the first large-scale benchmark designed for NLQ over TSDB-scale histories. Our experiments highlight the unique challenges within this domain and demonstrate that Sonar-TS effectively navigates complex temporal queries where traditional methods fail. This work presents the first systematic study of NLQ4TSDB, offering a general framework and evaluation standard to facilitate future research.

Effectively modeling non-stationary dynamics in probabilistic multivariate time series(MTS) forecasting requires balancing expressiveness with robustness. Existing parametric approaches benefit from strong inductive biases but lack flexibility, whereas deep generative models struggle to capture complex temporal dependencies without extensive data and computation. We introduce Parametric Prior Mapping (PPM), a framework that injects parametric structural priors into a generative modeling process. Specifically, PPM utilizes a parametric estimator to derive a dynamic, adaptive prior that guides the learning of a complex predictive distribution via a learnable mapping. This design allows the model to retain the efficiency of parametric methods while exploiting the expressive power of generative models. Trained with a hybrid objective, PPM yields precise forecasts with well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. Empirical results show that PPM outperforms existing baselines in handling non-stationary data, offering a superior trade-off between accuracy and computational efficiency. The code is available at https://github.com/ljl8336/PPM.

Real-world multivariate time series are inherently in flux: different variables evolve asynchronously and interact in complex, time-varying ways, yet accurate forecasting requires these dispersed signals to converge into a single unified prediction. This structural mismatch between dynamic, heterogeneous inputs and a unified forecasting objective poses a fundamental challenge for building general-purpose multivariate forecasting models, especially in zero-shot and large-scale settings. To this end, inspired by the idea that ``\emph{all rivers run into the sea}'', we propose \textbf{ConFlux}, a \emph{general-purpose foundation model for multivariate time-series forecasting} by learning to adaptively integrate cross-channel information under a unified forecasting objective. Specifically, ConFlux first reorders variables to reduce cross-variable entanglement, then aggregates adjacent variables into compact patches that can be processed by a Vision Transformer-style architecture. This design shortens the effective context, reduces attention complexity, and provides a unified token representation for pre-training and downstream tasks. Experiments on 25 public datasets show that ConFlux achieves state-of-the-art performance in zero-shot, fine-tuning, and from-scratch settings, while offering faster inference and lower memory usage.

Multi-modal spatio-temporal forecasting underpins many real-world applications but remains challenging due to the complex and evolving interactions across modalities and time steps. Moreover, the lack of interpretability in existing models limits their reliability in safety-critical scenarios. In this paper, we present CausalX, a unified and causally interpretable plug-and-play model for multi-modal spatio-temporal forecasting. CausalX achieves interpretability by learning a dynamic causal graph across modalities and time, whose edge weights quantify causal attribution strength, and are further refined by a diffusion-based generative process guided by structural priors. To overcome the absence of ground-truth causal structures, CausalX aggregates multi-source constraints from causal analysis techniques and a variational autoencoder, spanning predictive, temporal, interventional, and generative aspects to jointly learn a more comprehensive causal graph. Extensive experiments on real-world forecasting tasks, including pedestrian trajectory prediction and tropical cyclone forecasting, demonstrate that CausalX achieves superior accuracy while producing interpretable causal graphs. CausalX is modular, architecture-agnostic, and generalizable, offering a new perspective on bridging causal inference and spatio-temporal forecasting.

Most statistical phylogenetics analyses use simple continuous-time finite-state Markov models of point substitution to describe molecular evolution. These models enforce unrealistic assumptions like keeping sequence length fixed, ignoring insertions and deletions (indels) entirely, and making little (if any) allowance for variation in selection pressure due to interactions between amino acids. We extend the TKF92 model—the canonical hierarchical model combining an outer birth-death process for indels with an inner finite-state Markov chain for substitutions—by introducing additional nesting and latent states, allowing for structural heterogeneity. We compare these TKF92 extensions to two classes of neural seq2seq models that use evolutionary time as an input feature: the first "basic" class lacks any evolutionary modeling constraints, while the second "hybrid" class combines neural sequence embeddings with a TKF92-like likelihood function. We evaluate the per-character perplexities of all models on splits of the Pfam database of aligned protein domains. The hybrid neural models outperform their basic counterparts across all sequence embedding architectures. Furthermore, a nested TKF-based model with only 30,000 parameters is highly competitive with all neural networks (which contain tens of millions of parameters), outperforming all but two of the neural architectures tested. Taken together, our results indicate that approaches grounded in molecular evolutionary theory may provide a better fit to real alignments than unconstrained alternatives, supporting the incorporation of CTMC-based model structure within future neural phylogenetic approaches.

Most spatio-temporal forecasting models assume in-distribution data and can degrade sharply under non-stationary environments. Existing methods for handling distribution shift largely rely on discrete graph inference, making it difficult to disentangle universal dynamics from environment-specific changes and to respect the continuous physical nature of spatio-temporal fields. To this end, we propose STPDE, a general framework that reformulates spatio-temporal dynamics as the evolution of inhomogeneous partial differential equations. STPDE explicitly decomposes dynamics into an Invariant Diffusion Operator that captures universal mechanisms and an Environment Basis Manifold that parameterizes local heterogeneous media. We show that the Green's function of the Laplacian can be effectively approximated by linear attention, enabling global diffusion at scale. Combined with stochastic environment perturbations, STPDE improves robustness under heterogeneous and shifting environments. Extensive experiments on in-distribution forecasting, out-of-distribution generalization, few-shot cross-city transfer, and continual learning demonstrate consistent improvements over state-of-the-art baselines with competitive computational efficiency.

Medical time series are central to healthcare, enabling continuous monitoring and supporting timely clinical decisions. Despite recent progress, existing methods struggle to jointly model local-global dynamics and handle nonstationarities like baseline drift, while often failing to capture latent channel interactions. To address these challenges, we propose **MedMamba**, an end-to-end architecture that integrates state space models with domain-specific inductive biases. Specifically, MedMamba first employs multi-scale convolutional embeddings to capture discriminative local morphology. Second, to mitigate nonstationarity, we introduce a tri-branch differential state space encoder that processes raw, temporal-difference, and frequency-domain views, fusing them to emphasize informative patterns while suppressing drift. Furthermore, to uncover latent channel correlations, we design a spatial graph Mamba module that learns a directed dependency structure regularized toward sparsity and acyclicity, which obviates the need for predefined graphs. Extensive experiments on five real-world datasets demonstrate that MedMamba achieves state-of-the-art performance while maintaining linear computational complexity, and ablation studies validate each component's contribution.Code is available at https://github.com/zhangda1018/MedMamba.

Multivariate time series anomaly detection remains challenging as it requires the joint modeling of variable relationships and temporal dependencies. Existing methods often struggle to balance channel relationship modeling and overlook the relative importance of different variables within multivariate time series. To address this, we propose TeamWork, an asymmetric role-aware channel modeling framework that decouples variables into dominant and auxiliary roles according to their contributions to uncertainty reduction. Dominant variables drive system evolution and their deviations more strongly disrupt normal patterns, while auxiliary variables provide complementary cues. These variables with different roles are integrated through a role-aware gated interaction module. Moreover, point and subsequence anomalies can exist in multiple periodic systems, and the same anomaly type may behave differently across short- and long-period series. To capture such variations, we introduce a period-aware masked modeling mechanism. It employs multiple specialized masking mechanisms spanning short to long periods to facilitate comprehensive temporal dependency learning. Extensive experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that TeamWork achieves superior performance compared with state-of-the-art methods.

Training Large Language Models (LLMs) to reason often relies on Reinforcement Learning (RL) with task-specific verifiers. However, many real-world reasoning-intensive tasks lack verifiers, despite offering abundant expert demonstrations that remain under-utilized for reasoning-focused training. We introduce **RARO** (Relativistic Adversarial Reasoning Optimization), which learns strong reasoning capabilities from expert demonstrations alone via **Inverse Reinforcement Learning**. Our method sets up an adversarial game between a **policy** and a **relativistic critic**: the policy learns to mimic expert answers, while the critic aims to identify the expert among (expert, policy) answer pairs. Both the policy and the critic are trained jointly and continuously via RL, and we identify key stabilization techniques required for robust learning. Empirically, RARO significantly outperforms strong verifier-free baselines across all evaluation tasks: $+13.7\%$ accuracy on Countdown ($1.5$B), +8.2\% on DeepMath ($7$B), and $+19.1\%$ win-rate on Poetry Writing ($7$B) against expert poems. RARO also exhibits similar robust scaling trends as RL with verifiers. These results demonstrate that RARO effectively elicits strong reasoning performance from expert demonstrations alone, enabling robust reasoning learning even when task-specific verifiers are unavailable.

Existing machine learning models for network simulation excel at predicting average performance but, due to their reliance on mean squared error, systematically fail to capture the critical tail-latency and jitter that define modern network stability. This 'tail-blindness' renders them unreliable for latency-sensitive systems. We bridge this gap by introducing Accurate Neural Architecture Search (ANAS), a paradigm that automates the discovery of architectures for high-precision, distribution-aware network simulation. ANAS corrects the evaluation inaccuracies of weight-sharing NAS via a similarity-constrained search, employs a hybrid search space to model complex traffic, and uses a Wasserstein loss to optimize for the entire delay distribution, not just its mean. Empirically, the ANAS-discovered architecture is holistically superior: it reduces overall validation loss by 25.8\% compared to DeepQueueNet, demonstrating strong average-case performance, while simultaneously excelling at tail-sensitive metrics by lowering the normalized Wasserstein distance ($W_n$) by up to 69.8\%. This confirms its ability to faithfully model a comprehensive performance spectrum, encompassing both average and critical tail behaviors. The ANAS framework provides a practical methodology for automatically creating high-fidelity model of network devices, enabling more reliable validation of next-generation network protocols and algorithms.

Time series forecasting has long relied on dense endogenous observations, yet in many real-world scenarios, such data is scarce or even absent. Existing approaches attempt to compensate with exogenous variables, but their reliance on incomplete endogenous histories makes them brittle under data scarcity. In this work, we introduce sparse endogenous forecasting as a new setting, where exogenous sequences and only sparse endogenous observations are available. To tackle this problem, we propose TimeSeed, a lightweight architecture that redefines sparse forecasting as a context reconstruction task. By jointly exploiting the stability of exogenous sequences and the limited but informative endogenous signals, TimeSeed reconstructs robust historical representations and transforms forecasting into a tractable sequence-based prediction problem. Remarkably, TimeSeed achieves this with a purely linear architecture using only 0.19M parameters, consistently outperforming state-of-the-art deep models on seven real-world benchmarks, with an average improvement of 13.01\% in MSE and 7.54\% in MAE. These results establish sparse endogenous forecasting as a practical and promising paradigm, opening a new direction for time series analysis under extreme data scarcity. Code is available at this repository: \url{https://anonymous.4open.science/r/Alistair-7}.

Deep neural networks for image classification often exhibit overconfidence on out-of-distribution (OOD) samples. To address this, we introduce Geometrically Constrained Outlier Synthesis (GCOS), a training-time regularization framework aimed at improving OOD robustness during inference. GCOS addresses a limitation of prior synthesis methods by generating virtual outliers in the hidden feature space that respect the learned manifold structure of in-distribution (ID) data. The synthesis proceeds in two stages: (i) a dominant-variance subspace extracted from the training features identifies geometrically informed, off-manifold directions; (ii) a conformally-inspired shell, defined by the empirical quantiles of a nonconformity score from a calibration set, adaptively controls the synthesis magnitude to produce boundary samples. The shell ensures that generated outliers are neither trivially detectable nor indistinguishable from in-distribution data, facilitating smoother learning of robust features. This is combined with a contrastive regularization objective that promotes separability of ID and OOD samples in a chosen score space, such as Mahalanobis or energy-based. Experiments demonstrate that GCOS outperforms state-of-the-art methods using standard energy-based inference on near-OOD benchmarks, defined as tasks where outliers share the same semantic domain as in-distribution data. As an exploratory extension, the framework naturally transitions to conformal OOD inference, which translates uncertainty scores into statistically valid p-values and enables thresholds with formal error guarantees, providing a pathway toward more predictable and reliable OOD detection.

We propose a non-autoregressive branching diffusion model for generating spatio-temporal point processes. Starting from a geometric principle---the Wasserstein-Fisher-Rao (WFR) gradient flow of a generalized KL divergence toward a simple reference intensity---we obtain a tractable forward noising mechanism with two interpretable components: (i) a Langevin-type \emph{drift-diffusion} step that perturbs event locations and times, and (ii) a \emph{birth-death branching} step that changes the event count via location-dependent thinning (deaths) and Poisson offspring replication (births). We learn the reverse-time dynamics using a permutation-equivariant denoiser that predicts a drift field and a net-growth field, and we train it using an entropic-regularized unbalanced optimal transport (UOT), which naturally handles count mismatch between noisy and clean samples. The resulting generator produces complete spatio-temporal event sets without autoregressive simulation or explicit intensity normalization.

Reinforcement Learning (RL) post-training alignment for language models is effective, but also costly and unstable in practice, owing to its complicated training process. To address this, we propose a training-free inference method to sample directly from the optimal RL policy. The transition probability applied to Masked Language Modeling (MLM) consists of a reference policy model and an energy term. Based on this, our algorithm, Energy-Guided Test-Time Scaling (ETS), estimates the key energy term via online Monte Carlo, with a provable convergence rate. Moreover, to ensure practical efficiency, ETS leverages modern acceleration frameworks alongside tailored importance sampling estimators, substantially reducing inference latency while provably preserving sampling quality. Experiments on MLM (including autoregressive models and diffusion language models) across reasoning, coding, and science benchmarks show that our ETS consistently improves generation quality, validating its effectiveness and design. The code is available at https://github.com/sheriyuo/ETS.

Graph anomaly detection (GAD) is a fundamental task in graph learning. However, most existing methods rely on the homophily assumption, which posits that connected nodes tend to share the same labels. This assumption often fails in the presence of edge heterophily, leading to degraded performance. We first observe that down-weighting heterophilic edges, relative to the original or randomly weighted graphs, results in a more concentrated spectral energy distribution, thereby facilitating the learning of discriminative spectral representations. Moreover, existing methods typically embed graphs in Euclidean spaces, neglecting the importance of heterophily in manifold spaces. Motivated by these observations, we propose HSMAD, a novel framework for GAD. It consists of two key components: the Heterophily-Weighted Spectral Filtering module, which reconstructs the Laplacian using heterophily-based edge weighting for spectral filtering, and the Heterophily-Routed Manifold Update module, which routes neighborhood messages to the appropriate manifold for node feature updates, enabling curvature-adaptive representation learning. These spectral and geometric representations are jointly leveraged for anomaly detection. Extensive experiments on six real-world datasets show that HSMAD achieves state-of-the-art performance across the average F1-Macro, AUROC, AUPRC, and G-Mean. Specifically, the average F1-Macro score improves by 2.66% over the best-performing method.

Dynamic Sparse Training (DST) methods train neural networks by maintaining sparsity while dynamically adapting the network topology. Despite the promise of reduced computation, DST methods converge significantly slower than dense training, often requiring comparable training time to achieve similar accuracy. We demonstrate both analytically and empirically that Batch Normalization (BN) adversely affects sparse training, and propose SparseOpt — a sparsity-aware optimizer — to address this. Experiments on ResNet models across CIFAR-100 and ImageNet demonstrate consistently faster convergence and improved generalization with our proposed method. Our work highlights the limitations of current normalization layers in sparse training and provides the first systematic study of the interaction between Batch Normalization, sparse layers, and DST, taking a significant step toward making DST practically competitive with dense training.

Wearable accelerometers enable large-scale health monitoring, yet learning robust human-activity representations has been constrained by scarce labeled data. While self-supervised learning offers a remedy, existing methods treat sensor streams as unstructured time series, overlooking the underlying biological structure of human movement, a factor we argue is critical for effective Human Activity Recognition (HAR). We introduce a novel tokenization strategy grounded in the *submovement theory* of motor control, which posits that continuous wrist motion is composed of elementary basis functions called submovements. We define our token as the *movement segment*, a computationally tractable unit of motion composed of a finite sequence of submovements. By pretraining a Transformer encoder via masked reconstruction of these tokens, we shift the learning focus from local waveform morphology to high-level structural and temporal organization. Pretrained on the NHANES corpus ($\approx$ 28k hours; $\approx$ 11k participants), our representations outperform strong wearable SSL baselines across six subject-disjoint HAR benchmarks. Code and pretrained weights are available at [https://prithvitarale.github.io/biopm-site/](https://prithvitarale.github.io/biopm-site/).

Time series forecasting is important in many fields that require accurate predictions for decision-making. Patching techniques, commonly used and effective in time series modeling, help capture temporal dependencies by dividing the data into patches. However, existing patch-based methods fail to dynamically select patches and typically use all patches during the prediction process. In real-world time series, there are often low-quality issues during data collection, such as missing values, distribution shifts, anomalies and white noise, which may cause some patches to contain low-quality information, negatively impacting the prediction results. To address this issue, this study proposes a robust time series forecasting framework called $\textbf{SEER}$. Firstly, we propose an $\textit{Augmented Embedding Module}$, which improves patch-wise representations using a Mixture-of-Experts~(MoE) architecture and obtains series-wise token representations through a channel-adaptive perception mechanism. Secondly, we introduce a $\textit{Learnable Patch Replacement Module}$, which enhances forecasting robustness and model accuracy through a two-stage process: 1) a dynamic filtering mechanism eliminates negative patch-wise tokens; 2) a replaced attention module substitutes the identified low-quality patches with global series-wise token, further refining their representations through a causal attention mechanism. Comprehensive experimental results demonstrate the SOTA performance of SEER.