NeurIPS 2025 Papers

Online bidding is a classic optimization problem, with several applications in online decision-making, the design of interruptible systems, and the analysis of approximation algorithms. In this work, we study online bidding under learning-augmented settings that incorporate stochasticity, in either the prediction oracle or the algorithm itself. In the first part, we study bidding under distributional predictions, and find Pareto-optimal algorithms that offer the best-possible tradeoff between the consistency and the robustness of the algorithm. In the second part, we study the power and limitations of randomized bidding algorithms, by presenting upper and lower bounds on the consistency/robustness tradeoffs. Previous works focused predominantly on oracles that do not leverage stochastic information on the quality of the prediction, and deterministic algorithms.

Tokenization efficiency plays a critical role in the performance and cost of large language models (LLMs), yet most models rely on static tokenizers optimized on general-purpose corpora. These tokenizers’ fixed vocabularies often fail to adapt to domain- or language-specific inputs, leading to longer token sequences and higher computational costs. We introduce zip2zip, a novel method for achieving context-adaptive tokenization in LLMs at inference time. Leveraging an online data compression algorithm (Lempel–Ziv–Welch), zip2zip dynamically expands its active vocabulary at inference time by continuously replacing fragmented token sequences with more compact hypertokens, which it can immediately output during generation. In doing so, the model refines its internal tokenization scheme to match the token distribution of the current context, reducing redundancy and improving representational efficiency. zip2zip consists of three key components: (1) a tokenizer based on Lempel–Ziv–Welch compression that incrementally merges co-occurring tokens into reusable hypertokens on the fly; (2) a dynamic embedding (and unembedding) layer that computes embeddings for newly formed hypertokens at runtime; and (3) a variant of autoregressive language modeling that pretrains the model to handle hypertokenized, compressed text sequences as inputs and outputs. We show that an existing LLM can be uptrained for zip2zip in 10 GPU-hours via parameter-efficient finetuning. The resulting LLM performs test-time adaptation, learning to use hypertokens in unseen contexts and reducing input and output tokens by 15–40%. Code and models are released at https://github.com/epfl-dlab/zip2zip.

Selective prediction [Dru13, QV19] models the scenario where a forecaster freely decides on the prediction window that their forecast spans. Many data statistics can be predicted to a non-trivial error rate *without any* distributional assumptions or expert advice, yet these results rely on that the forecaster may predict at any time. We introduce a model of Prediction with Limited Selectivity (PLS) where the forecaster can start the prediction only on a subset of the time horizon. We study the optimal prediction error both on an instance-by-instance basis and via an average-case analysis. We introduce a complexity measure that gives instance-dependent bounds on the optimal error. For a randomly-generated PLS instance, these bounds match with high probability.

We study the generalized linear bandit (GLB) problem, a contextual multi-armed bandit framework that extends the classical linear model by incorporating a non-linear link function, thereby modeling a broad class of reward distributions such as Bernoulli and Poisson. While GLBs are widely applicable to real-world scenarios, their non-linear nature introduces significant challenges in achieving both computational and statistical efficiency. Existing methods typically trade off between two objectives, either incurring high per-round costs for optimal regret guarantees or compromising statistical efficiency to enable constant-time updates. In this paper, we propose a jointly efficient algorithm that attains a nearly optimal regret bound with $\mathcal{O}(1)$ time and space complexities per round. The core of our method is a tight confidence set for the online mirror descent (OMD) estimator, which is derived through a novel analysis that leverages the notion of mix loss from online prediction. The analysis shows that our OMD estimator, even with its one-pass updates, achieves statistical efficiency comparable to maximum likelihood estimation, thereby leading to a jointly efficient optimistic method.

We propose an online conformal prediction framework under local differential privacy to address the emerging challenge of privacy-preserving uncertainty quantification in streaming data environments. Our method constructs dynamic, model-free prediction sets based on randomized binary inquiries, ensuring rigorous privacy protection without requiring access to raw data. Importantly, the proposed algorithm can be conducted in a one-pass online manner, leading to high computational efficiency and minimal storage requirements with $\mathcal{O}(1)$ space complexity, making it particularly suitable for real-time applications. The proposed framework is also broadly applicable to both regression and classification tasks, adapting flexibly to diverse predictive settings. We establish theoretical guarantees for long-run coverage at a target confidence level, ensuring statistical reliability under strict privacy constraints. Extensive empirical evaluations on both simulated and real-world datasets demonstrate that the proposed method delivers accurate, stable, and privacy-preserving predictions across a range of dynamic environments.

This article studies the problem of online non-parametric change point detection in multivariate data streams. We approach the problem through the lens of kernel-based two-sample testing and introduce a sequential testing procedure based on random Fourier features, running with logarithmic time complexity per observation and with overall logarithmic space complexity. The algorithm has two advantages compared to the state of the art. First, our approach is genuinely online, and no access to training data known to be from the pre-change distribution is necessary. Second, the algorithm does not require the user to specify a window parameter over which local tests are to be calculated. We prove strong theoretical guarantees on the algorithm's performance, including information-theoretic bounds demonstrating that the detection delay is optimal in the minimax sense. Numerical studies on real and synthetic data show that our algorithm is competitive with respect to the state of the art.

We resolve a 30-year-old open problem concerning the power of unlabeled data in online learning by tightly quantifying the gap between transductive and standard online learning. We prove that for every concept class $\mathcal{H}$ with Littlestone dimension $d$, the transductive mistake bound is at least $\Omega(\sqrt{d})$. This establishes an exponential improvement over previous lower bounds of $\Omega(\log \log d)$, $\Omega(\sqrt{\log d})$, and $\Omega(\log d)$, respectively due to Ben-David, Kushilevitz, and Mansour (1995, 1997) and Hanneke, Moran, and Shafer (2023). We also show that our bound is tight: for every $d$, there exists a class of Littlestone dimension $d$ with transductive mistake bound $O(\sqrt{d})$. Our upper bound also improves the previous best known upper bound of $(2/3) \cdot d$ from Ben-David et al. (1997). These results demonstrate a quadratic gap between transductive and standard online learning, thereby highlighting the benefit of advanced access to the unlabeled instance sequence. This stands in stark contrast to the PAC setting, where transductive and standard learning exhibit similar sample complexities.

Computing Nash equilibria of zero-sum games in classical and quantum settings is extensively studied. For general-sum games, computing Nash equilibria is PPAD-hard and the computing of a more general concept called correlated equilibria has been widely explored in game theory. In this paper, we initiate the study of quantum algorithms for computing $\varepsilon$-approximate correlated equilibria (CE) and coarse correlated equilibria (CCE) in multi-player normal-form games. Our approach utilizes quantum improvements to the multi-scale Multiplicative Weight Update (MWU) method for CE calculations, achieving a query complexity of $\tilde{O}(m\sqrt{n})$ for fixed $\varepsilon$. For CCE, we extend techniques from quantum algorithms for zero-sum games to multi-player settings, achieving query complexity $\tilde{O}(m\sqrt{n}/\varepsilon^{2.5})$. Both algorithms demonstrate a near-optimal scaling in the number of players $m$ and actions $n$, as confirmed by our quantum query lower bounds.

Online bilevel optimization (OBO) is a powerful framework for machine learning problems where both outer and inner objectives evolve over time, requiring dynamic updates. Current OBO approaches rely on deterministic \textit{window-smoothed} regret minimization, which may not accurately reflect system performance when functions change rapidly. In this work, we introduce a novel search direction and show that both first- and zeroth-order (ZO) stochastic OBO algorithms leveraging this direction achieve sublinear {stochastic bilevel regret without window smoothing}. Beyond these guarantees, our framework enhances efficiency by: (i) reducing oracle dependence in hypergradient estimation, (ii) updating inner and outer variables alongside the linear system solution, and (iii) employing ZO-based estimation of Hessians, Jacobians, and gradients. Experiments on online parametric loss tuning and black-box adversarial attacks validate our approach.

In this paper, we study the behavior of the Upper Confidence Bound-Variance (UCB-V) algorithm for the Multi-Armed Bandit (MAB) problems, a variant of the canonical Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) algorithm that incorporates variance estimates into its decision-making process. More precisely, we provide an asymptotic characterization of the arm-pulling rates for UCB-V, extending recent results for the canonical UCB in Kalvit and Zeevi (2021) and Khamaru and Zhang (2024). In an interesting contrast to the canonical UCB, our analysis reveals that the behavior of UCB-V can exhibit instability, meaning that the arm-pulling rates may not always be asymptotically deterministic. Besides the asymptotic characterization, we also provide non-asymptotic bounds for the arm-pulling rates in the high probability regime, offering insights into the regret analysis. As an application of this high probability result, we establish that UCB-V can achieve a more refined regret bound, previously unknown even for more complicate and advanced variance-aware online decision-making algorithms. A matching regret lower bound is also established, demonstrating the optimality of our result.

We study agnostic online learning from continuous-time data streams, a setting that naturally arises in applications such as environmental monitoring, personalized recommendation, and high-frequency trading. Unlike classical discrete-time models, learners in this setting must interact with a continually evolving data stream while making queries and updating models only at sparse, strategically selected times. We develop a general theoretical framework for learning from both *oblivious* and *adaptive* data streams, which may be noisy and non-stationary. For oblivious streams, we present a black-box reduction to classical online learning that yields a regret bound of $T \cdot R(S)/S$ for any class with discrete-time regret $R(S)$, where $T$ is the time horizon and $S$ is the *query budget*. For adaptive streams, which can evolve in response to learner actions, we design a dynamic query strategy in conjunction with a novel importance weighting scheme that enables unbiased loss estimation. In particular, for hypothesis class $\mathcal{H}$ with a finite Littlestone dimension, we establish a tight regret bound of $\tilde{\Theta}(T \cdot \sqrt{\mathsf{Ldim}(\mathcal{H})/S})$ that holds in both settings. Our results provide the first *quantitative* characterization of agnostic learning in continuous-time online environments with limited interaction.

We study a two-sided market, wherein, price-sensitive heterogeneous customers and servers arrive and join their respective queues. A compatible customer-server pair can then be matched by the platform, at which point, they leave the system. Our objective is to design pricing and matching algorithms that maximize the platform's profit, while maintaining reasonable queue lengths. As the demand and supply curves governing the price-dependent arrival rates may not be known in practice, we design a novel online-learning-based pricing policy and establish its near-optimality. In particular, we prove a tradeoff among three performance metrics: $\tilde{O}(T^{1-\gamma})$ regret, $\tilde{O}(T^{\gamma/2})$ average queue length, and $\tilde{O}(T^{\gamma})$ maximum queue length for $\gamma \in (0, 1/6]$, significantly improving over existing results (Yang & Ying, 2024). Moreover, barring the permissible range of $\gamma$, we show that this trade-off between regret and average queue length is optimal up to logarithmic factors under a class of policies, matching the optimal one as in (Varma et al., 2023) which assumes the demand and supply curves to be known. Our proposed policy has two noteworthy features: a dynamic component that optimizes the tradeoff between low regret and small queue lengths; and a probabilistic component that resolves the tension between obtaining useful samples for fast learning and maintaining small queue lengths.

We study dynamic regret in online convex optimization, where the objective is to achieve low cumulative loss relative to an arbitrary benchmark sequence. By observing that competing with an arbitrary sequence of comparators $u_{1},\ldots,u_{T}$ in $\mathcal{W}\subseteq\mathbb{R}^{d}$ can be reframed as competing with a *fixed* comparator *function* $u:[1,T]\to \mathcal{W}$, we cast dynamic regret minimization as a *static regret* problem in a *function space*. By carefully constructing a suitable function space in the form of a Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS), our reduction enables us to recover the optimal $R_{T}(u_{1},\ldots,u_{T}) = \mathcal{O}(\sqrt{\sum_{t}\\|u_{t}-u_{t-1}\\|T})$ dynamic regret guarantee in the setting of linear losses, and yields new scale-free and directionally-adaptive dynamic regret guarantees. Moreover, unlike prior dynamic-to-static reductions---which are valid only for linear losses---our reduction holds for *any* sequence of losses, allowing us to recover $\mathcal{O}\big(\\|u\\|^2+d_{\mathrm{eff}}(\lambda)\ln T\big)$ bounds when the losses have meaningful curvature, where $d_{\mathrm{eff}}(\lambda)$ is a measure of complexity of the RKHS. Despite working in an infinite-dimensional space, the resulting reduction leads to algorithms that are computable in practice, due to the reproducing property of RKHSs.

Conformal prediction is an emerging technique for uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true label with a predefined probability. Recent work develops online conformal prediction methods that adaptively construct prediction sets to accommodate distribution shifts. However, existing algorithms typically assume *perfect label accuracy* which rarely holds in practice. In this work, we investigate the robustness of online conformal prediction under uniform label noise with a known noise rate. We show that label noise causes a persistent gap between the actual mis-coverage rate and the desired rate $\alpha$, leading to either overestimated or underestimated coverage guarantees. To address this issue, we propose a novel loss function *robust pinball loss*, which provides an unbiased estimate of clean pinball loss without requiring ground-truth labels. Theoretically, we demonstrate that robust pinball loss enables online conformal prediction to eliminate the coverage gap under uniform label noise, achieving a convergence rate of $\mathcal{O}(T^{-1/2})$ for both empirical and expected coverage errors (i.e., absolute deviation of the empirical and expected mis-coverage rate from the target level $\alpha$). This loss offers a general solution to the uniform label noise, and is complementary to existing online conformal prediction methods. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed loss enhances the noise robustness of various online conformal prediction methods by achieving a precise coverage guarantee.

We explore the concept of replicability, which ensures algorithmic consistency despite input data variations, for online pricing problems, specifically prophet inequalities and delegation. Given the crucial role of replicability in enhancing transparency in economic decision-making, we present a replicable and nearly optimal pricing strategy for prophet inequalities, achieving a sample complexity of $\textnormal{poly}(\log^* |\mathcal{X}|)$, where $\mathcal{X}$ is the ground set of distributions. Furthermore, we extend these findings to the delegation problem and establish lower bound that proves the necessity of the $\log^*|\mathcal{X}|$ dependence. En route to obtaining these results, we develop a number of technical contributions which are of independent interest. Most notably, we propose a new algorithm for a variant of the heavy hitter problem, which has a nearly linear dependence on the inverse of the heavy hitter parameter, significantly improving upon existing results which have a cubic dependence.

We study the value of stochastic predictions in online optimal control with random disturbances. Prior work provides performance guarantees based on prediction error but ignores the stochastic dependence between predictions and disturbances. We introduce a general framework modeling their joint distribution and define "prediction power" as the control cost improvement from the optimal use of predictions compared to ignoring the predictions. In the time-varying Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) setting, we derive a closed-form expression for prediction power and discuss its mismatch with prediction accuracy and connection with online policy optimization. To extend beyond LQR, we study general dynamics and costs. We establish a lower bound on prediction power under two sufficient conditions that generalize the properties of the LQR setting, characterizing the fundamental benefit of incorporating stochastic predictions. We apply this lower bound to non-quadratic costs and show that even weakly dependent predictions yield significant performance gains.

This paper is concerned with online time series forecasting, where unknown distribution shifts occur over time, i.e., latent variables influence the mapping from historical to future observations. To develop an automated way of online time series forecasting, we propose a Theoretical framework for Online Time-series forecasting (TOT in short) with theoretical guarantees. Specifically, we prove that supplying a forecaster with latent variables tightens the Bayes risk—the benefit endures under estimation uncertainty of latent variables and grows as the latent variables achieve a more precise identifiability. To better introduce latent variables into online forecasting algorithms, we further propose to identify latent variables with minimal adjacent observations. Based on these results, we devise a model-agnostic blueprint by employing a temporal decoder to match the distribution of observed variables and two independent noise estimators to model the causal inference of latent variables and mixing procedures of observed variables, respectively. Experiment results on synthetic data support our theoretical claims. Moreover, plug-in implementations built on several baselines yield general improvement across multiple benchmarks, highlighting the effectiveness in real-world applications.

In online allocation problems, an algorithm must choose from a set of options at each step, where each option incurs a set of costs/rewards associated with a set of $d$ agents. The goal is to minimize/maximize a function of the accumulated costs/rewards assigned to the agents over the course of the entire allocation process. Such problems are common in combinatorial optimization, including minimization problems such as machine scheduling and network routing, as well as maximization problems such as fair allocation for welfare maximization. In this paper, we develop a general learning-augmented algorithmic framework for online allocation problems that produces a nearly optimal solution using only a single $d$-dimensional vector of learned weights. Using this general framework, we derive learning-augmented online algorithms for a broad range of application problems in routing, scheduling, and fair allocation. Our main tool is convex programming duality, which may also have further implications for learning-augmented algorithms in the future.