ICML 2023 Papers

Latent Gaussian models have a rich history in statistics and machine learning, with applications ranging from factor analysis to compressed sensing to time series analysis. The classical method for maximizing the likelihood of these models is the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. For problems with high-dimensional latent variables and large datasets, EM scales poorly because it needs to invert as many large covariance matrices as the number of data points. We introduce probabilistic unrolling, a method that combines Monte Carlo sampling with iterative linear solvers to circumvent matrix inversion. Our theoretical analyses reveal that unrolling and backpropagation through the iterations of the solver can accelerate gradient estimation for maximum likelihood estimation. In experiments on simulated and real data, we demonstrate that probabilistic unrolling learns latent Gaussian models up to an order of magnitude faster than gradient EM, with minimal losses in model performance.

Diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) are a new class of generative models that have achieved state-of-the-art generation quality in various domains. Despite the promise, one major drawback of DPMs is the slow generation speed due to the large number of neural network evaluations required in the generation process. In this paper, we reveal an overlooked dimension---model schedule---for optimizing the trade-off between generation quality and speed. More specifically, we observe that small models, though having worse generation quality when used alone, could outperform large models in certain generation steps. Therefore, unlike the traditional way of using a single model, using different models in different generation steps in a carefully designed model schedule could potentially improve generation quality and speed simultaneously. We design OMS-DPM, a predictor-based search algorithm, to determine the optimal model schedule given an arbitrary generation time budget and a set of pre-trained models. We demonstrate that OMS-DPM can find model schedules that improve generation quality and speed than prior state-of-the-art methods across CIFAR-10, CelebA, ImageNet, and LSUN datasets. When applied to the public checkpoints of the Stable Diffusion model, we are able to accelerate the sampling by 2x while maintaining the generation quality.

Discovering knowledge about which types of events influence others, using datasets of event sequences without time stamps, has several practical applications. While neural sequence models are able to capture complex and potentially long-range historical dependencies, they often lack the interpretability of simpler models for event sequence dynamics. We provide a novel neural framework in such a setting - a probabilistic attention-to-influence neural model - which not only captures complex instance-wise interactions between events but also learns influencers for each event type of interest. Given event sequence data and a prior distribution on type-wise influence, we efficiently learn an approximate posterior for type-wise influence by an attention-to-influence transformation using variational inference. Our method subsequently models the conditional likelihood of sequences by sampling the above posterior to focus attention on influencing event types. We motivate our general framework and show improved performance in experiments compared to existing baselines on synthetic data as well as real-world benchmarks, for tasks involving prediction and influencing set identification.

There is an emerging interest in generating robust counterfactual explanations that would remain valid if the model is updated or changed even slightly. Towards finding robust counterfactuals, existing literature often assumes that the original model $m$ and the new model $M$ are bounded in the parameter space, i.e., $\|\text{Params}(M){-}\text{Params}(m)\|{<}\Delta$. However, models can often change significantly in the parameter space with little to no change in their predictions or accuracy on the given dataset. In this work, we introduce a mathematical abstraction termed *naturally-occurring* model change, which allows for arbitrary changes in the parameter space such that the change in predictions on points that lie on the data manifold is limited. Next, we propose a measure -- that we call *Stability* -- to quantify the robustness of counterfactuals to potential model changes for differentiable models, e.g., neural networks. Our main contribution is to show that counterfactuals with sufficiently high value of *Stability* as defined by our measure will remain valid after potential ``naturally-occurring'' model changes with high probability (leveraging concentration bounds for Lipschitz function of independent Gaussians). Since our quantification depends on the local Lipschitz constant around a data point which is not always available, we also examine practical relaxations of our proposed measure and demonstrate experimentally how they can be incorporated to find robust counterfactuals for neural networks that are close, realistic, and remain valid after potential model changes.

Multivariate probabilistic time series forecasts are commonly evaluated via proper scoring rules, i.e., functions that are minimal in expectation for the ground-truth distribution. However, this property is not sufficient to guarantee good discrimination in the non-asymptotic regime. In this paper, we provide the first systematic finite-sample study of proper scoring rules for time series forecasting evaluation. Through a power analysis, we identify the ``region of reliability'' of a scoring rule, i.e., the set of practical conditions where it can be relied on to identify forecasting errors. We carry out our analysis on a comprehensive synthetic benchmark, specifically designed to test several key discrepancies between ground-truth and forecast distributions, and we gauge the generalizability of our findings to real-world tasks with an application to an electricity production problem. Our results reveal critical shortcomings in the evaluation of multivariate probabilistic forecasts as commonly performed in the literature.

Probabilistic modeling is a central task in machine learning. Probabilistic models should be tractable, i.e., allowing tractable probabilistic inference, but also efficient, i.e., being able to represent a large set of probability distributions. Zhang et al. (ICML 2021) recently proposed a new model, probabilistic generating circuits. They raised the question whether every strongly Rayleigh distribution can be efficiently represented by such circuits. We prove that this question has a negative answer, there are strongly Rayleigh distributions that cannot be represented by polynomial-sized probabilistic generating circuits, assuming a widely accepted complexity theoretic conjecture.

The successes of modern deep machine learning methods are founded on their ability to transform inputs across multiple layers to build good high-level representations. It is therefore critical to understand this process of representation learning. However, standard theoretical approaches (formally NNGPs) involving infinite width limits eliminate representation learning. We therefore develop a new infinite width limit, the Bayesian representation learning limit, that exhibits representation learning mirroring that in finite-width models, yet at the same time, retains some of the simplicity of standard infinite-width limits. In particular, we show that Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) in the Bayesian representation learning limit have exactly multivariate Gaussian posteriors, and the posterior covariances can be obtained by optimizing an interpretable objective combining a log-likelihood to improve performance with a series of KL-divergences which keep the posteriors close to the prior. We confirm these results experimentally in wide but finite DGPs. Next, we introduce the possibility of using this limit and objective as a flexible, deep generalisation of kernel methods, that we call deep kernel machines (DKMs). Like most naive kernel methods, DKMs scale cubically in the number of datapoints. We therefore use methods from the Gaussian process inducing point literature to develop a sparse DKM that scales linearly in the number of datapoints. Finally, we extend these approaches to NNs (which have non-Gaussian posteriors) in the Appendices.

In this paper, we consider non-convex multi-block bilevel optimization (MBBO) problems, which involve $m\gg 1$ lower level problems and have important applications in machine learning. Designing a stochastic gradient and controlling its variance is more intricate due to the hierarchical sampling of blocks and data and the unique challenge of estimating hyper-gradient. We aim to achieve three nice properties for our algorithm: (a) matching the state-of-the-art complexity of standard BO problems with a single block; (b) achieving parallel speedup by sampling $I$ blocks and sampling $B$ samples for each sampled block per-iteration; (c) avoiding the computation of the inverse of a high-dimensional Hessian matrix estimator. However, it is non-trivial to achieve all of these by observing that existing works only achieve one or two of these properties. To address the involved challenges for achieving (a, b, c), we propose two stochastic algorithms by using advanced blockwise variance-reduction techniques for tracking the Hessian matrices (for low-dimensional problems) or the Hessian-vector products (for high-dimensional problems), and prove an iteration complexity of $O(\frac{m\epsilon^{-3}\mathbb{I}(I \textless m)}{I\sqrt{I}}+\frac{m\epsilon^{-3}}{I\sqrt{B}})$ for finding an $\epsilon$-stationary point under appropriate conditions. We also conduct experiments to verify the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms comparing with existing MBBO algorithms.

Fair representation learning (FRL) is a popular class of methods aiming to produce fair classifiers via data preprocessing. Recent regulatory directives stress the need for FRL methods that provide practical certificates, i.e., provable upper bounds on the unfairness of any downstream classifier trained on preprocessed data, which directly provides assurance in a practical scenario. Creating such FRL methods is an important challenge that remains unsolved. In this work, we address that challenge and introduce FARE (Fairness with Restricted Encoders), the first FRL method with practical fairness certificates. FARE is based on our key insight that restricting the representation space of the encoder enables the derivation of practical guarantees, while still permitting favorable accuracy-fairness tradeoffs for suitable instantiations, such as one we propose based on fair trees. To produce a practical certificate, we develop and apply a statistical procedure that computes a finite sample high-confidence upper bound on the unfairness of any downstream classifier trained on FARE embeddings. In our comprehensive experimental evaluation, we demonstrate that FARE produces practical certificates that are tight and often even comparable with purely empirical results obtained by prior methods, which establishes the practical value of our approach.

The policy gradient theorem gives a convenient form of the policy gradient in terms of three factors: an action value, a gradient of the action likelihood, and a state distribution involving discounting called the *discounted stationary distribution*. But commonly used on-policy methods based on the policy gradient theorem ignores the discount factor in the state distribution, which is technically incorrect and may even cause degenerate learning behavior in some environments. An existing solution corrects this discrepancy by using $\gamma^t$ as a factor in the gradient estimate. However, this solution is not widely adopted and does not work well in tasks where the later states are similar to earlier states. We introduce a novel distribution correction to account for the discounted stationary distribution that can be plugged into many existing gradient estimators. Our correction circumvents the performance degradation associated with the $\gamma^t$ correction with a lower variance. Importantly, compared to the uncorrected estimators, our algorithm provides improved state emphasis to evade suboptimal policies in certain environments and consistently matches or exceeds the original performance on several OpenAI gym and DeepMind suite benchmarks.

The generalization analysis of deep kernel learning (DKL) is a crucial and open problem of kernel methods for deep learning. The implicit nonlinear mapping in DKL makes existing methods of capacity-based generalization analysis for deep learning invalid. In an attempt to overcome this challenge and make up for the gap in the generalization theory of DKL, we develop an analysis method based on the composite relationship of function classes and derive capacity-based bounds with mild dependence on the depth, which generalizes learning theory bounds to deep kernels and serves as theoretical guarantees for the generalization of DKL. In this paper, we prove novel and nearly-tight generalization bounds based on the uniform covering number and the Rademacher chaos complexity for deep (multiple) kernel machines. In addition, for some common classes, we estimate their uniform covering numbers and Rademacher chaos complexities by bounding their pseudo-dimensions and kernel pseudo-dimensions, respectively. The mild bounds without strong assumptions partially explain the good generalization ability of deep learning combined with kernel methods.

The recent integration of deep learning and pairwise similarity annotation-based constrained clustering---i.e., deep constrained clustering (DCC)---has proven effective for incorporating weak supervision into massive data clustering: Less than 1% of pair similarity annotations can often substantially enhance the clustering accuracy. However, beyond empirical successes, there is a lack of understanding of DCC. In addition, many DCC paradigms are sensitive to annotation noise, but performance-guaranteed noisy DCC methods have been largely elusive. This work first takes a deep look into a recently emerged logistic loss function of DCC, and characterizes its theoretical properties. Our result shows that the logistic DCC loss ensures the identifiability of data membership under reasonable conditions, which may shed light on its effectiveness in practice. Building upon this understanding, a new loss function based on geometric factor analysis is proposed to fend against noisy annotations. It is shown that even under unknown annotation confusions, the data membership can still be provably identified under our proposed learning criterion. The proposed approach is tested over multiple datasets to validate our claims.

Deep learning has revolutionized many areas of machine learning, from computer vision to natural language processing, but these high-performance models are generally ``black box." Explaining such models would improve transparency and trust in AI-powered decision making and is necessary for understanding other practical needs such as robustness and fairness. A popular means of enhancing model transparency is to quantify how individual inputs contribute to model outputs (called attributions) and the magnitude of interactions between groups of inputs. A growing number of these methods import concepts and results from game theory to produce attributions and interactions. This work presents a unifying framework for game-theory-inspired attribution and $k^\text{th}$-order interaction methods. We show that, given modest assumptions, a unique full account of interactions between features, called synergies, is possible in the continuous input setting. We identify how various methods are characterized by their policy of distributing synergies. We establish that gradient-based methods are characterized by their actions on monomials, a type of synergy function, and introduce unique gradient-based methods. We show that the combination of various criteria uniquely defines the attribution/interaction methods. Thus, the community needs to identify goals and contexts when developing and employing attribution and interaction methods.

Contrastively trained encoders have recently been proven to invert the data-generating process: they encode each input, e.g., an image, into the true latent vector that generated the image (Zimmermann et al., 2021). However, real-world observations often have inherent ambiguities. For instance, images may be blurred or only show a 2D view of a 3D object, so multiple latents could have generated them. This makes the true posterior for the latent vector probabilistic with heteroscedastic uncertainty. In this setup, we extend the common InfoNCE objective and encoders to predict latent distributions instead of points. We prove that these distributions recover the correct posteriors of the data-generating process, including its level of aleatoric uncertainty, up to a rotation of the latent space. In addition to providing calibrated uncertainty estimates, these posteriors allow the computation of credible intervals in image retrieval. They comprise images with the same latent as a given query, subject to its uncertainty. Code is at https://github.com/mkirchhof/Probabilistic_Contrastive_Learning .

Multivariate time series data for real-world applications typically contain a significant amount of missing values. The dominant approach for classification with such missing values is to impute them heuristically with specific values (zero, mean, values of adjacent time-steps) or learnable parameters. However, these simple strategies do not take the data generative process into account, and more importantly, do not effectively capture the uncertainty in prediction due to the multiple possibilities for the missing values. In this paper, we propose a novel probabilistic framework for classification with multivariate time series data with missing values. Our model consists of two parts; a deep generative model for missing value imputation and a classifier. Extending the existing deep generative models to better capture structures of time-series data, our deep generative model part is trained to impute the missing values in multiple plausible ways, effectively modeling the uncertainty of the imputation. The classifier part takes the time series data along with the imputed missing values and classifies signals, and is trained to capture the predictive uncertainty due to the multiple possibilities of imputations. Importantly, we show that naïvely combining the generative model and the classifier could result in trivial solutions where the generative model does not produce meaningful imputations. To resolve this, we present a novel regularization technique that can promote the model to produce useful imputation values that help classification. Through extensive experiments on real-world time series data with missing values, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

We introduce InstaAug, a method for automatically learning input-specific augmentations from data. Previous methods for learning augmentations have typically assumed independence between the original input and the transformation applied to that input. This can be highly restrictive, as the invariances we hope our augmentation will capture are themselves often highly input dependent. InstaAug instead introduces a learnable invariance module that maps from inputs to tailored transformation parameters, allowing local invariances to be captured. This can be simultaneously trained alongside the downstream model in a fully end-to-end manner, or separately learned for a pre-trained model. We empirically demonstrate that InstaAug learns meaningful input-dependent augmentations for a wide range of transformation classes, which in turn provides better performance on both supervised and self-supervised tasks.

The studies on adversarial attacks and defenses have greatly improved the robustness of Deep Neural Networks (DNNs). Most advanced approaches have been overwhelmingly designed for continuous data such as images. However, these achievements are still hard to be generalized to categorical data. To bridge this gap, we propose a novel framework, Probabilistic Categorical Adversarial Attack (or PCAA). It transfers the discrete optimization problem of finding categorical adversarial examples to a continuous problem that can be solved via gradient-based methods. We analyze the optimality (attack success rate) and time complexity of PCAA to demonstrate its significant advantage over current search-based attacks. More importantly, through extensive empirical studies, we demonstrate that the well-established defenses for continuous data, such as adversarial training and TRADES, can be easily accommodated to defend DNNs for categorical data.

Parameter-space regularization in neural network optimization is a fundamental tool for improving generalization. However, standard parameter-space regularization methods make it challenging to encode explicit preferences about desired predictive functions into neural network training. In this work, we approach regularization in neural networks from a probabilistic perspective and show that by viewing parameter-space regularization as specifying an empirical prior distribution over the model parameters, we can derive a probabilistically well-motivated regularization technique that allows explicitly encoding information about desired predictive functions into neural network training. This method---which we refer to as function-space empirical Bayes (FS-EB)---includes both parameter- and function-space regularization, is mathematically simple, easy to implement, and incurs only minimal computational overhead compared to standard regularization techniques. We evaluate the utility of this regularization technique empirically and demonstrate that the proposed method leads to near-perfect semantic shift detection, highly-calibrated predictive uncertainty estimates, successful task adaption from pre-trained models, and improved generalization under covariate shift.

In reinforcement learning, the credit assignment problem is to distinguish luck from skill, that is, separate the inherent randomness in the environment from the controllable effects of the agent's actions. This paper proposes two novel algorithms, Quantile Credit Assignment (QCA) and Hindsight QCA (HQCA), which incorporate distributional value estimation to perform credit assignment. QCA uses a network that predicts the quantiles of the return distribution, whereas HQCA additionally incorporates information about the future. Both QCA and HQCA have the appealing interpretation of leveraging an estimate of the quantile level of the return (interpreted as the level of "luck") in order to derive a "luck-dependent" baseline for policy gradient methods. We show theoretically that this approach gives an unbiased policy gradient estimate that can yield significant variance reductions over a standard value estimate baseline. QCA and HQCA significantly outperform prior state-of-the-art methods on a range of extremely difficult credit assignment problems.