ICML 2023 Papers

We consider the task of evaluating policies of algorithmic resource allocation through randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Such policies are tasked with optimizing the utilization of limited intervention resources, with the goal of maximizing the benefits derived. Evaluation of such allocation policies through RCTs proves difficult, notwithstanding the scale of the trial, because the individuals’ outcomes are inextricably interlinked through resource constraints controlling the policy decisions. Our key contribution is to present a new estimator leveraging our proposed novel concept, that involves retrospective reshuffling of participants across experimental arms at the end of an RCT. We identify conditions under which such reassignments are permissible and can be leveraged to construct counterfactual trials, whose outcomes can be accurately ascertained, for free. We prove theoretically that such an estimator is more accurate than common estimators based on sample means -- we show that it returns an unbiased estimate and simultaneously reduces variance. We demonstrate the value of our approach through empirical experiments on synthetic, semisynthetic as well as real case study data and show improved estimation accuracy across the board.

Prompt-based learning has emerged as a successful paradigm in natural language processing, where a single general-purpose language model can be instructed to perform any task specified by input prompts. Yet task specification in robotics comes in various forms, such as imitating one-shot demonstrations, following language instructions, and reaching visual goals. They are often considered different tasks and tackled by specialized models. We show that a wide spectrum of robot manipulation tasks can be expressed with multimodal prompts, interleaving textual and visual tokens. Accordingly, we develop a new simulation benchmark that consists of thousands of procedurally-generated tabletop tasks with multimodal prompts, 600K+ expert trajectories for imitation learning, and a four-level evaluation protocol for systematic generalization. We design a transformer-based robot agent, VIMA, that processes these prompts and outputs motor actions autoregressively. VIMA features a recipe that achieves strong model scalability and data efficiency. It outperforms alternative designs in the hardest zero-shot generalization setting by up to $2.9\times$ task success rate given the same training data. With $10\times$ less training data, VIMA still performs $2.7\times$ better than the best competing variant. Code and video demos are available at https://vimalabs.github.io

We study the problem of learning comparisons between numbers with neural networks. Despite comparisons being a seemingly simple problem, we find that both general-purpose models such as multilayer perceptrons (MLPs) as well as arithmetic architectures such as the Neural Arithmetic Logic Unit (NALU) struggle with learning comparisons. Neither architecture can extrapolate to much larger numbers than those seen in the training set. We propose a novel differentiable architecture, the Neural Status Register (NSR) to solve this problem. We experimentally validate the NSR in various settings. We can combine the NSR with other neural models to solve interesting problems such as piecewise-defined arithmetic, comparison of digit images, recurrent problems, or finding shortest paths in graphs. The NSR outperforms all baseline architectures, especially when it comes to extrapolating to larger numbers.

Finding the mode of a high dimensional probability distribution $\mathcal{D}$ is a fundamental algorithmic problem in statistics and data analysis. There has been particular interest in efficient methods for solving the problem when $\mathcal{D}$ is represented as a mixture model or kernel density estimate, although few algorithmic results with worst-case approximation and runtime guarantees are known. In this work, we significantly generalize a result of (LeeLiMusco:2021) on mode approximation for Gaussian mixture models. We develop randomized dimensionality reduction methods for mixtures involving a broader class of kernels, including the popular logistic, sigmoid, and generalized Gaussian kernels. As in Lee et al.'s work, our dimensionality reduction results yield quasi-polynomial algorithms for mode finding with multiplicative accuracy $(1-\epsilon)$ for any $\epsilon > 0$. Moreover, when combined with gradient descent, they yield efficient practical heuristics for the problem. In addition to our positive results, we prove a hardness result for box kernels, showing that there is no polynomial time algorithm for finding the mode of a kernel density estimate, unless $\mathit{P} = \mathit{NP}$. Obtaining similar hardness results for kernels used in practice (like Gaussian or logistic kernels) is an interesting future direction.

The growing body of research shows how to replace classical partial differential equation (PDE) integrators with neural networks. The popular strategy is to generate the input-output pairs with a PDE solver, train the neural network in the regression setting, and use the trained model as a cheap surrogate for the solver. The bottleneck in this scheme is the number of expensive queries of a PDE solver needed to generate the dataset. To alleviate the problem, we propose a computationally cheap augmentation strategy based on general covariance and simple random coordinate transformations. Our approach relies on the fact that physical laws are independent of the coordinate choice, so the change in the coordinate system preserves the type of a parametric PDE and only changes PDE's data (e.g., initial conditions, diffusion coefficient). For tried neural networks and partial differential equations, proposed augmentation improves test error by 23% on average. The worst observed result is a 17% increase in test error for multilayer perceptron, and the best case is a 80% decrease for dilated residual network.

Multivariate probabilistic time series forecasts are commonly evaluated via proper scoring rules, i.e., functions that are minimal in expectation for the ground-truth distribution. However, this property is not sufficient to guarantee good discrimination in the non-asymptotic regime. In this paper, we provide the first systematic finite-sample study of proper scoring rules for time series forecasting evaluation. Through a power analysis, we identify the ``region of reliability'' of a scoring rule, i.e., the set of practical conditions where it can be relied on to identify forecasting errors. We carry out our analysis on a comprehensive synthetic benchmark, specifically designed to test several key discrepancies between ground-truth and forecast distributions, and we gauge the generalizability of our findings to real-world tasks with an application to an electricity production problem. Our results reveal critical shortcomings in the evaluation of multivariate probabilistic forecasts as commonly performed in the literature.

Off-policy evaluation (OPE) aims to estimate the return of a target policy using some pre-collected observational data generated by a potentially different behavior policy. In many cases, there exist unmeasured variables that confound the action-reward or action-next-state relationships, rendering many existing OPE approaches ineffective. This paper develops an instrumental variable (IV)-based method for consistent OPE in confounded sequential decision making. Similar to single-stage decision making, we show that IV enables us to correctly identify the target policy's value in infinite horizon settings as well. Furthermore, we propose a number of policy value estimators and illustrate their effectiveness through extensive simulations and real data analysis from a world-leading short-video platform.

A wide variety of model explanation approaches have been proposed in recent years, all guided by very different rationales and heuristics. In this paper, we take a new route and cast interpretability as a statistical inference problem. We propose a general deep probabilistic model designed to produce interpretable predictions. The model’s parameters can be learned via maximum likelihood, and the method can be adapted to any predictor network architecture, and any type of prediction problem. Our model is akin to amortized interpretability methods, where a neural network is used as a selector to allow for fast interpretation at inference time. Several popular interpretability methods are shown to be particular cases of regularized maximum likelihood for our general model. Using our framework, we identify imputation as a common issue of these models. We propose new datasets with ground truth selection which allow for the evaluation of the features importance map and show experimentally that multiple imputation provides more reasonable interpretations.

The neural operator has emerged as a powerful tool in learning mappings between function spaces in PDEs. However, when faced with real-world physical data, which are often highly non-uniformly distributed, it is challenging to use mesh-based techniques such as the FFT. To address this, we introduce the Non-Uniform Neural Operator (NUNO), a comprehensive framework designed for efficient operator learning with non-uniform data. Leveraging a K-D tree-based domain decomposition, we transform non-uniform data into uniform grids while effectively controlling interpolation error, thereby paralleling the speed and accuracy of learning from non-uniform data. We conduct extensive experiments on 2D elasticity, (2+1)D channel flow, and a 3D multi-physics heatsink, which, to our knowledge, marks a novel exploration into 3D PDE problems with complex geometries. Our framework has reduced error rates by up to 60% and enhanced training speeds by 2x to 30x. The code is now available at https://github.com/thu-ml/NUNO .

We study the problem of estimating the distribution of the return of a policy using an offline dataset that is not generated from the policy, i.e., distributional offline policy evaluation (OPE). We propose an algorithm called Fitted Likelihood Estimation (FLE), which conducts a sequence of Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and has the flexibility of integrating any state-of-the-art probabilistic generative models as long as it can be trained via MLE. FLE can be used for both finite-horizon and infinite-horizon discounted settings where rewards can be multi-dimensional vectors. Our theoretical results show that for both finite-horizon and infinite-horizon discounted settings, FLE can learn distributions that are close to the ground truth under total variation distance and Wasserstein distance, respectively. Our theoretical results hold under the conditions that the offline data covers the test policy's traces and that the supervised learning MLE procedures succeed. Experimentally, we demonstrate the performance of FLE with two generative models, Gaussian mixture models and diffusion models. For the multi-dimensional reward setting, FLE with diffusion models is capable of estimating the complicated distribution of the return of a test policy.