ICML 2023 Papers

Large language models (LLMs) with hundreds of billions of parameters have sparked a new wave of exciting AI applications. However, they are computationally expensive at inference time. Sparsity is a natural approach to reduce this cost, but existing methods either require costly retraining, have to forgo LLM's in-context learning ability, or do not yield wall-clock time speedup on modern hardware. We hypothesize that contextual sparsity, which are small, input-dependent sets of attention heads and MLP parameters that yield approximately the same output as the dense model for a given input, can address these issues. We show that contextual sparsity exists, that it can be accurately predicted, and that we can exploit it to speed up LLM inference in wall-clock time without compromising LLM's quality or in-context learning ability. Based on these insights, we propose DejaVu, a system that uses a low-cost algorithm to predict contextual sparsity on the fly given inputs to each layer, along with an asynchronous and hardware-aware implementation that speeds up LLM inference. We validate that DejaVu can reduce the inference latency of OPT-175B by over 2$\times$ compared to the state-of-the-art FasterTransformer, and over 6$\times$ compared to the widely used Hugging Face implementation, without compromising model quality. The code is available at https://github.com/FMInference/DejaVu.

Multi-player online games depict the interaction of multiple players with each other over time. Strongly monotone games are of particular interest since they have benign properties and also relate to many classic games that have applications in real life. Existing works mainly focus on the time-invariant case with provable guarantees established. However, the research of the more general *time-varying* games in changing environments is underexplored and the best-known result cannot match the guarantees in the time-invariant case. In this work, we present a new decentralized online algorithm for time-varying strongly monotone games, which greatly improves existing results and obtains fast rates, matching the best time-invariant guarantee without knowing the environmental non-stationarity. Furthermore, to achieve faster rates, we generalize the RVU property with smoothness and establish a series of problem-dependent bounds that also match the best time-invariant one. To realize all those results, we make a comprehensive use of the techniques in non-stationary and universal online learning.

This paper explores the expressive power of deep neural networks through the framework of function compositions. We demonstrate that the repeated compositions of a single fixed-size ReLU network exhibit surprising expressive power, despite the limited expressive capabilities of the individual network itself. Specifically, we prove by construction that $\mathcal{L}_2\circ \boldsymbol{g}^{\circ r}\circ \boldsymbol{\mathcal{L}}_1$ can approximate $1$-Lipschitz continuous functions on $[0,1]^d$ with an error $\mathcal{O}(r^{-1/d})$, where $\boldsymbol{g}$ is realized by a fixed-size ReLU network, $\boldsymbol{\mathcal{L}}_1$ and $\mathcal{L}_2$ are two affine linear maps matching the dimensions, and $\boldsymbol{g}^{\circ r}$ denotes the $r$-times composition of $\boldsymbol{g}$. Furthermore, we extend such a result to generic continuous functions on $[0,1]^d$ with the approximation error characterized by the modulus of continuity. Our results reveal that a continuous-depth network generated via a dynamical system has immense approximation power even if its dynamics function is time-independent and realized by a fixed-size ReLU network.

Understanding when the noise in stochastic gradient descent (SGD) affects generalization of deep neural networks remains a challenge, complicated by the fact that networks can operate in distinct training regimes. Here we study how the magnitude of this noise $T$ affects performance as the size of the training set $P$ and the scale of initialization $\alpha$ are varied. For gradient descent, $\alpha$ is a key parameter that controls if the network is `lazy' ($\alpha\gg1$) or instead learns features ($\alpha\ll1$). For classification of MNIST and CIFAR10 images, our central results are: *(i)* obtaining phase diagrams for performance in the $(\alpha,T)$ plane. They show that SGD noise can be detrimental or instead useful depending on the training regime. Moreover, although increasing $T$ or decreasing $\alpha$ both allow the net to escape the lazy regime, these changes can have opposite effects on performance. *(ii)* Most importantly, we find that the characteristic temperature $T_c$ where the noise of SGD starts affecting the trained model (and eventually performance) is a power law of $P$. We relate this finding with the observation that key dynamical quantities, such as the total variation of weights during training, depend on both $T$ and $P$ as power laws. These results indicate that a key effect of SGD noise occurs late in training, by affecting the stopping process whereby all data are fitted. Indeed, we argue that due to SGD noise, nets must develop a stronger `signal', i.e. larger informative weights, to fit the data, leading to a longer training time. A stronger signal and a longer training time are also required when the size of the training set $P$ increases. We confirm these views in the perceptron model, where signal and noise can be precisely measured. Interestingly, exponents characterizing the effect of SGD depend on the density of data near the decision boundary, as we explain.

Recently, test-time adaptation (TTA) has been proposed as a promising solution for addressing distribution shifts. It allows a base model to adapt to an unforeseen distribution during inference by leveraging the information from the batch of (unlabeled) test data. However, we uncover a novel security vulnerability of TTA based on the insight that predictions on benign samples can be impacted by malicious samples in the same batch. To exploit this vulnerability, we propose Distribution Invading Attack (DIA), which injects a small fraction of malicious data into the test batch. DIA causes models using TTA to misclassify benign and unperturbed test data, providing an entirely new capability for adversaries that is infeasible in canonical machine learning pipelines. Through comprehensive evaluations, we demonstrate the high effectiveness of our attack on multiple benchmarks across six TTA methods. In response, we investigate two countermeasures to robustify the existing insecure TTA implementations, following the principle of security by design. Together, we hope our findings can make the community aware of the utility-security tradeoffs in deploying TTA and provide valuable insights for developing robust TTA approaches.

We perform an empirical study of the behaviour of deep networks when fully linearizing some of its feature channels through a sparsity prior on the overall number of nonlinear units in the network. In experiments on image classification and machine translation tasks, we investigate how much we can simplify the network function towards linearity before performance collapses. First, we observe a significant performance gap when reducing nonlinearity in the network function early on as opposed to late in training, in-line with recent observations on the time-evolution of the data-dependent NTK. Second, we find that after training, we are able to linearize a significant number of nonlinear units while maintaining a high performance, indicating that much of a network's expressivity remains unused but helps gradient descent in early stages of training. To characterize the depth of the resulting partially linearized network, we introduce a measure called average path length, representing the average number of active nonlinearities encountered along a path in the network graph. Under sparsity pressure, we find that the remaining nonlinear units organize into distinct structures, forming core-networks of near constant effective depth and width, which in turn depend on task difficulty.

Policies often fail at test-time due to *distribution shifts*---changes in the state and reward that occur when an end user deploys the policy in environments different from those seen in training. Data augmentation can help models be more robust to such shifts by varying specific concepts in the state, e.g. object color, that are *task-irrelevant* and should not impact desired actions. However, designers training the agent don't often know which concepts are irrelevant *a priori*. We propose a human-in-the-loop framework to leverage feedback from the end user to quickly identify and augment task-irrelevant visual state concepts. Our framework generates *counterfactual demonstrations* that allow users to quickly isolate shifted state concepts and identify if they should not impact the desired task, and can therefore be augmented using existing actions. We present experiments validating our full pipeline on discrete and continuous control tasks with real human users. Our method better enables users to (1) understand agent failure, (2) improve sample efficiency of demonstrations required for finetuning, and (3) adapt the agent to their desired reward.

Machine learning (ML) holds great potential for accurately forecasting treatment outcomes over time, which could ultimately enable the adoption of more individualized treatment strategies in many practical applications. However, a significant challenge that has been largely overlooked by the ML literature on this topic is the presence of informative sampling in observational data. When instances are observed irregularly over time, sampling times are typically not random, but rather informative–depending on the instance's characteristics, past outcomes, and administered treatments. In this work, we formalize informative sampling as a covariate shift problem and show that it can prohibit accurate estimation of treatment outcomes if not properly accounted for. To overcome this challenge, we present a general framework for learning treatment outcomes in the presence of informative sampling using inverse intensity-weighting, and propose a novel method, TESAR-CDE, that instantiates this framework using Neural CDEs. Using a simulation environment based on a clinical use case, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in learning under informative sampling.

A critical element of learning with noisy labels is noisy label detection. Notably, numerous previous works assume that no source of labels can be clean in a noisy label detection context. In this work, we relax this assumption and assume that a small subset of the training data is clean, which enables substantial noisy label detection performance gains. Specifically, we propose a novel framework that leverages clean data by framing the problem of noisy label detection with clean data as a multiple hypothesis testing problem. Moreover, we propose BHN, a simple yet effective approach for noisy label detection that integrates the Benjamini-Hochberg (BH) procedure into deep neural networks. BHN achieves $\textit{state-of-the-art}$ performance and outperforms baselines by $\textbf{28.48}$% in terms of false discovery rate (FDR) and by $\textbf{18.99}$% in terms of F1 on CIFAR-10. Extensive ablation studies further demonstrate the superiority of BHN. Our code is available at https://github.com/ChenglinYu/BHN.

Test-Time Adaptation (TTA) has recently gained significant attention as a new paradigm for tackling distribution shifts. Despite the sheer number of existing methods, the inconsistent experimental conditions and lack of standardization in prior literature make it difficult to measure their actual efficacies and progress. To address this issue, we present a large-scale open-sourced Test-Time Adaptation Benchmark, dubbed TTAB, which includes nine state-of-the-art algorithms, a diverse array of distribution shifts, and two comprehensive evaluation protocols. Through extensive experiments, we identify three common pitfalls in prior efforts: (i) choosing appropriate hyper-parameter, especially for model selection, is exceedingly difficult due to online batch dependency; (ii) the effectiveness of TTA varies greatly depending on the quality of the model being adapted; (iii) even under optimal algorithmic conditions, existing methods still systematically struggle with certain types of distribution shifts. Our findings suggest that future research in the field should be more transparent about their experimental conditions, ensure rigorous evaluations on a broader set of models and shifts, and re-examine the assumptions underlying the potential success of TTA for practical applications.

Deep learning has been actively applied to time series forecasting, leading to a deluge of new methods, belonging to the class of historical-value models. Yet, despite the attractive properties of time-index models, such as being able to model the continuous nature of underlying time series dynamics, little attention has been given to them. Indeed, while naive deep time-index models are far more expressive than the manually predefined function representations of classical time-index models, they are inadequate for forecasting, being unable to generalize to unseen time steps due to the lack of inductive bias. In this paper, we propose DeepTime, a meta-optimization framework to learn deep time-index models which overcome these limitations, yielding an efficient and accurate forecasting model. Extensive experiments on real world datasets in the long sequence time-series forecasting setting demonstrate that our approach achieves competitive results with state-of-the-art methods, and is highly efficient. Code is available at https://github.com/salesforce/DeepTime.

Anomaly detection methods identify examples that do not follow the expected behaviour, typically in an unsupervised fashion, by assigning real-valued anomaly scores to the examples based on various heuristics. These scores need to be transformed into actual predictions by thresholding so that the proportion of examples marked as anomalies equals the expected proportion of anomalies, called contamination factor. Unfortunately, there are no good methods for estimating the contamination factor itself. We address this need from a Bayesian perspective, introducing a method for estimating the posterior distribution of the contamination factor for a given unlabeled dataset. We leverage several anomaly detectors to capture the basic notion of anomalousness and estimate the contamination using a specific mixture formulation. Empirically on 22 datasets, we show that the estimated distribution is well-calibrated and that setting the threshold using the posterior mean improves the detectors' performance over several alternative methods.

This paper presents a new approach to automatically discovering accurate models of complex time series data. Working within a Bayesian nonparametric prior over a symbolic space of Gaussian process time series models, we present a novel structure learning algorithm that integrates sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) and involutive MCMC for highly effective posterior inference. Our method can be used both in "online'' settings, where new data is incorporated sequentially in time, and in ``offline'' settings, by using nested subsets of historical data to anneal the posterior. Empirical measurements on real-world time series show that our method can deliver 10x--100x runtime speedups over previous MCMC and greedy-search structure learning algorithms targeting the same model family. We use our method to perform the first large-scale evaluation of Gaussian process time series structure learning on a prominent benchmark of 1,428 econometric datasets. The results show that our method discovers sensible models that deliver more accurate point forecasts and interval forecasts over multiple horizons as compared to widely used statistical and neural baselines that struggle on this challenging data.

Given a dataset on actions and resulting long-term rewards, a direct estimation approach fits value functions that minimize prediction error on the training data. Temporal difference learning (TD) methods instead fit value functions by minimizing the degree of temporal inconsistency between estimates made at successive time-steps. Focusing on finite state Markov chains, we provide a crisp asymptotic theory of the statistical advantages of this approach. First, we show that an intuitive inverse trajectory pooling coefficient completely characterizes the percent reduction in mean-squared error of value estimates. Depending on problem structure, the reduction could be enormous or nonexistent. Next, we prove that there can be dramatic improvements in estimates of the difference in value-to-go for two states: TD's errors are bounded in terms of a novel measure -- the problem's trajectory crossing time -- which can be much smaller than the problem's time horizon.

We study nonparametric density estimation in non-stationary drift settings. Given a sequence of independent samples taken from a distribution that gradually changes in time, the goal is to compute the best estimate for the current distribution. We prove tight minimax risk bounds for both discrete and continuous smooth densities, where the minimum is over all possible estimates and the maximum is over all possible distributions that satisfy the drift constraints. Our technique handles a broad class of drift models and generalizes previous results on agnostic learning under drift.

Methods based on ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are widely used to build generative models of time-series. In addition to high computational overhead due to explicitly computing hidden states recurrence, existing ODE-based models fall short in learning sequence data with sharp transitions - common in many real-world systems - due to numerical challenges during optimization. In this work, we propose LS4, a generative model for sequences with latent variables evolving according to a state space ODE to increase modeling capacity. Inspired by recent deep state space models (S4), we achieve speedups by leveraging a convolutional representation of LS4 which bypasses the explicit evaluation of hidden states. We show that LS4 significantly outperforms previous continuous-time generative models in terms of marginal distribution, classification, and prediction scores on real-world datasets in the Monash Forecasting Repository, and is capable of modeling highly stochastic data with sharp temporal transitions. LS4 sets state-of-the-art for continuous-time latent generative models, with significant improvement of mean squared error and tighter variational lower bounds on irregularly-sampled datasets, while also being x100 faster than other baselines on long sequences.

Aiming at promoting the safe real-world deployment of Reinforcement Learning (RL), research on safe RL has made significant progress in recent years. However, most existing works in the literature still focus on the online setting where risky violations of the safety budget are likely to be incurred during training. Besides, in many realworld applications, the learned policy is required to respond to dynamically determined safety budgets (i.e., constraint threshold) in real time. In this paper, we target at the above real-time budget constraint problem under the offline setting, and propose Trajectory-based REal-time Budget Inference (TREBI) as a novel solution that approaches this problem from the perspective of trajectory distribution. Theoretically, we prove an error bound of the estimation on the episodic reward and cost under the offline setting and thus provide a performance guarantee for TREBI. Empirical results on a wide range of simulation tasks and a real-world large-scale advertising application demonstrate the capability of TREBI in solving real-time budget constraint problems under offline settings.

We study a $K$-armed bandit with delayed feedback and intermediate observations. We consider a model, where intermediate observations have a form of a finite state, which is observed immediately after taking an action, whereas the loss is observed after an adversarially chosen delay. We show that the regime of the mapping of states to losses determines the complexity of the problem, irrespective of whether the mapping of actions to states is stochastic or adversarial. If the mapping of states to losses is adversarial, then the regret rate is of order $\sqrt{(K+d)T}$ (within log factors), where $T$ is the time horizon and $d$ is a fixed delay. This matches the regret rate of a $K$-armed bandit with delayed feedback and without intermediate observations, implying that intermediate observations are not helpful. However, if the mapping of states to losses is stochastic, we show that the regret grows at a rate of $\sqrt{\big(K+\min\\{|\mathcal{S}|,d\\}\big)T}$ (within log factors), implying that if the number $|\mathcal{S}|$ of states is smaller than the delay, then intermediate observations help. We also provide refined high-probability regret upper bounds for non-uniform delays, together with experimental validation of our algorithms.

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the *sequential predictive conformal inference* (SPCI). We specifically account for the nature that time series data are non-exchangeable, and thus many existing conformal prediction algorithms are not applicable. The main idea is to adaptively re-estimate the conditional quantile of non-conformity scores (e.g., prediction residuals), upon exploiting the temporal dependence among them. More precisely, we cast the problem of conformal prediction interval as predicting the quantile of a future residual, given a user-specified point prediction algorithm. Theoretically, we establish asymptotic valid conditional coverage upon extending consistency analyses in quantile regression. Using simulation and real-data experiments, we demonstrate a significant reduction in interval width of SPCI compared to other existing methods under the desired empirical coverage.