ICML 2023 Papers

Predictive black-box models can exhibit high-accuracy but their opaque nature hinders their uptake in safety-critical deployment environments. Explanation methods (XAI) can provide confidence for decision-making through increased transparency. However, existing XAI methods are not tailored towards models in sensitive domains where one predictor is of special interest, such as a treatment effect in a clinical model, or ethnicity in policy models. We introduce Path-Wise Shapley effects (PWSHAP), a framework for assessing the targeted effect of a binary (e.g. treatment) variable from a complex outcome model. Our approach augments the predictive model with a user-defined directed acyclic graph (DAG). The method then uses the graph alongside on-manifold Shapley values to identify effects along causal pathways whilst maintaining robustness to adversarial attacks. We establish error bounds for the identified path-wise Shapley effects and for Shapley values. We show PWSHAP can perform local bias and mediation analyses with faithfulness to the model. Further, if the targeted variable is randomised we can quantify local effect modification. We demonstrate the resolution, interpretability and true locality of our approach on examples and a real-world experiment.

Trustworthy policy learning has significant importance in making reliable and harmless treatment decisions for individuals. Previous policy learning approaches aim at the well-being of subgroups by maximizing the utility function (e.g., conditional average causal effects, post-view click-through&conversion rate in recommendations), however, individual-level counterfactual no-harm criterion has rarely been discussed. In this paper, we first formalize the counterfactual no-harm criterion for policy learning from a principal stratification perspective. Next, we propose a novel upper bound for the fraction negatively affected by the policy and show the consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimator. Based on the estimators for the policy utility and harm upper bounds, we further propose a policy learning approach that satisfies the counterfactual no-harm criterion, and prove its consistency to the optimal policy reward for parametric and non-parametric policy classes, respectively. Extensive experiments are conducted to show the effectiveness of the proposed policy learning approach for satisfying the counterfactual no-harm criterion.

There is an emerging interest in generating robust counterfactual explanations that would remain valid if the model is updated or changed even slightly. Towards finding robust counterfactuals, existing literature often assumes that the original model $m$ and the new model $M$ are bounded in the parameter space, i.e., $\|\text{Params}(M){-}\text{Params}(m)\|{<}\Delta$. However, models can often change significantly in the parameter space with little to no change in their predictions or accuracy on the given dataset. In this work, we introduce a mathematical abstraction termed *naturally-occurring* model change, which allows for arbitrary changes in the parameter space such that the change in predictions on points that lie on the data manifold is limited. Next, we propose a measure -- that we call *Stability* -- to quantify the robustness of counterfactuals to potential model changes for differentiable models, e.g., neural networks. Our main contribution is to show that counterfactuals with sufficiently high value of *Stability* as defined by our measure will remain valid after potential ``naturally-occurring'' model changes with high probability (leveraging concentration bounds for Lipschitz function of independent Gaussians). Since our quantification depends on the local Lipschitz constant around a data point which is not always available, we also examine practical relaxations of our proposed measure and demonstrate experimentally how they can be incorporated to find robust counterfactuals for neural networks that are close, realistic, and remain valid after potential model changes.

This paper focuses on the cluster description problem where, given a dataset and its partition into clusters, the task is to explain the clusters. We introduce a new approach to explain clusters by constructing a polyhedron around each cluster while minimizing either the complexity of the resulting polyhedra or the number of features used in the description. We formulate the cluster description problem as an integer program and present a column generation approach to search over an exponential number of candidate half-spaces that can be used to build the polyhedra. To deal with large datasets, we introduce a novel grouping scheme that first forms smaller groups of data points and then builds the polyhedra around the grouped data, a strategy which out-performs the common approach of sub-sampling data. Compared to state of the art cluster description algorithms, our approach is able to achieve competitive interpretability with improved description accuracy.

We provide an optimization-based framework to perform counterfactual analysis in a dynamic model with hidden states. Our framework is grounded in the ``abduction, action, and prediction'' approach to answer counterfactual queries and handles two key challenges where (1) the states are hidden and (2) the model is dynamic. Recognizing the lack of knowledge on the underlying causal mechanism and the possibility of infinitely many such mechanisms, we optimize over this space and compute upper and lower bounds on the counterfactual quantity of interest. Our work brings together ideas from causality, state-space models, simulation, and optimization, and we apply it on a breast cancer case study. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to compute lower and upper bounds on a counterfactual query in a dynamic latent-state model.

Counterfactual explanations have been widely studied in explainability, with a range of application dependent methods prominent in fairness, recourse and model understanding. The major shortcoming associated with these methods, however, is their inability to provide explanations beyond the local or instance-level. While many works touch upon the notion of a global explanation, typically suggesting to aggregate masses of local explanations in the hope of ascertaining global properties, few provide frameworks that are both reliable and computationally tractable. Meanwhile, practitioners are requesting more efficient and interactive explainability tools. We take this opportunity to propose Global & Efficient Counterfactual Explanations (GLOBE-CE), a flexible framework that tackles the reliability and scalability issues associated with current state-of-the-art, particularly on higher dimensional datasets and in the presence of continuous features. Furthermore, we provide a unique mathematical analysis of categorical feature translations, utilising it in our method. Experimental evaluation with publicly available datasets and user studies demonstrate that GLOBE-CE performs significantly better than the current state-of-the-art across multiple metrics (e.g., speed, reliability).

Counterfactual Risk Minimization (CRM) is a framework for dealing with the logged bandit feedback problem, where the goal is to improve a logging policy using offline data. In this paper, we explore the case where it is possible to deploy learned policies multiple times and acquire new data. We extend the CRM principle and its theory to this scenario, which we call "Sequential Counterfactual Risk Minimization (SCRM)." We introduce a novel counterfactual estimator and identify conditions that can improve the performance of CRM in terms of excess risk and regret rates, by using an analysis similar to restart strategies in accelerated optimization methods. We also provide an empirical evaluation of our method in both discrete and continuous action settings, and demonstrate the benefits of multiple deployments of CRM.