NeurIPS 2026 论文列表

Long-horizon time series forecasting requires a careful balance between predictive accuracy and computational cost. Segmented temporal modeling has therefore become a practical strategy for reducing the burden of long-range prediction. However, real-world time series often contain superposed multi-periodic components, whose spectral structures vary across time, variables, and samples. Such variability limits fixed aggregation or frequency-modeling mechanisms, making them less adaptive to non-stationary periodic patterns and potentially causing informative components to be attenuated over long forecasting horizons. To address this limitation, we propose DSR-TSF, a spectrum-driven dynamic routing framework for long-horizon forecasting. DSR-TSF adaptively selects and combines multiple period-specific branches conditioned on the spectral characteristics of the input sequence, thereby improving the model's ability to capture non-stationary periodic structures. It further learns period-aware dynamic weights to modulate the contributions of multi-periodic patterns while retaining the segmented prediction structure. Without complex resampling or explicit period alignment, DSR-TSF provides a compact mechanism for modeling spectral heterogeneity and achieves competitive performance across seven datasets with diverse dimensionalities and temporal characteristics.

AI-generated image detectors face significant challenges when deployed in real-world environments, particularly when test samples are produced by unseen generators that deviate from the source training distribution. Existing detectors often rely on a single type of evidence, such as semantic representations or low-level generation traces, making them vulnerable when the corresponding cue becomes unreliable. Moreover, adapting detectors to newly emerging generators usually requires target labels or retraining, which is costly and impractical. To address these challenges, we propose Dual-Evidence Disagreement-Constrained Adaptation (DEDCA), a test-time adaptation framework for generalized AI-generated image detection. DEDCA constructs a dual-evidence detector by combining CLIP-based semantic evidence with trace evidence extracted from shuffled entropy and residual statistics, and introduces a reliability-aware gate to perform sample-specific adaptive fusion. Our key idea is to exploit the disagreement between the two evidence streams as an unlabeled adaptation signal, enabling the detector to adjust to target-domain shifts without relying on target labels or blindly trusting a single prediction stream. Experiments show that DEDCA achieves superior performance on the GenImage benchmark by outperforming state-of-the-art AI-generated image detectors and test-time adaptation methods with 92.0\% average accuracy.

Paired translation between quasiperiodic physiological waveforms (i.e., recovering a target oscillatory signal from the source) is central to the interpretation of cardiovascular signals derived from wearables placed at different body locations. This source-to-target mapping in these problems carries inherent geometric structure: the phase wraps around the cycle and must be treated as a circular variable, the amplitude remains strictly positive, and the beat-to-beat alignment can drift unpredictably across cycles and subjects. While deep neural networks have been used for phase estimation and complex-valued signal modeling, prior work does not explicitly learn phase transport between paired signals. Consequently, neither endpoint-supervised regression nor the standard affine path used in flow matching accounts for this phase--amplitude structure. We introduce \emph{cylindrical geodesic flow matching} for paired cardiovascular waveform translation. We show that the standard affine path used in flow matching distorts intermediate amplitude and instantaneous frequency when interpolating between quasiperiodic signals; replacing it with a closed-form geodesic on the phase--amplitude cylinder eliminates these artifacts and converts each training pair into dense, geometry-consistent velocity supervision. On zero-shot photoplethysmography and limited-support seismocardiography adaptation benchmarks, our method consistently outperforms interpolation baselines and matches or exceeds direct supervised prediction, reducing Hilbert Transform, $L_2$, and Dynamic Time Warping distance by up to ${\sim}15\%$ over the strongest competing baseline. These results suggest that bridge geometry is a critical inductive bias for flow matching on oscillatory signal translation.

Dictionary learning methods - such as Sparse Autoencoders (SAEs) and crosscoders - decompose model activations into human-interpretable building blocks. We introduce _temporal crosscoders_, a simple and flexible framework for feature discovery in Large Language Models (LLMs). To properly evaluate temporal crosscoders we develop TempBench: a panel of synthetic and real-world tasks for evaluating temporal structures. Temporal crosscoders outperform both conventional and temporal architectures in both of our synthetic settings and on two out of four of the real world settings - more than any other current architecture. Most strikingly, they can detect backtracking - a key reasoning behavior - at a 40\% higher rate than conventional SAEs, and are 15\% more effective in inducing it. Our results establish temporal crosscoders as a simple and flexible framework for feature discovery, both local and temporal. We provide full code at the following anonymous repository: \url{https://anonymous.4open.science/r/temp-bench-anon/}.

Counterfactual explanations for time-series classification generate synthetic instances that flip a prediction to a desired class while remaining plausible and making small, local changes. Existing methods often rely on classifier gradients, and many do not naturally extend to one-class settings. To bridge this gap, we propose CTCF, a model-agnostic method for hard-decision classifiers in supervised and one-class settings. CTCF decouples generation from classifier-specific control by reusing an unconditional Flow Matching generator and learning a flow-time-dependent desired-class region from interpolation states labeled by endpoint hard decisions, without classifier gradients or class probabilities. At inference time, CTCF uses a dual-control mechanism: fused-lasso endpoint-objective steering encourages small, segment-local changes, while linearized projection correction reduces violations of a conservative desired-class region. Theoretically, under ideal marginal matching, we show that the surrogate risk on interpolation states equals the corresponding ODE-trajectory risk. Experiments on UCR datasets demonstrate CTCF's effectiveness across quantitative metrics and qualitative case studies.

Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) is a powerful approach to large-scale systems control, such as power grids and traffic networks, where dozens to hundreds of agents must coordinate effectively. Furthermore, such systems often operate in digital or simulated settings, which allows for inference-time search to significantly improve upon zero-shot performance. A current leading approach in this setting is COMPASS, which builds a continuous family of policies conditioned on latent vectors that can be efficiently searched at test time, but requires all agents to share a single latent vector, limiting the space of reachable joint policies. We introduce ATLAS, a simple extension in which each agent conditions on its own latent vector while still optimising a joint objective. This expands the searchable policy space at negligible computational cost and requires no additional training. ATLAS consistently sets a new state-of-the-art on a benchmark of 14 scenarios across three environments, scaling to teams of up to 200 agents, widely out of distribution. Crucially, its lead sharpens with team size and compute, reaching up to a 45% performance gain at scale.

Continual test-time adaptation (CTTA) updates a model online on a stream of unlabeled data under distribution shift. In practice, CTTA often becomes unstable: small early prediction biases are reused as supervision, causing pseudo-labels to progressively concentrate on a few classes and eventually leading to drift or collapse. We observe that this instability is closely linked to the temporal contraction of pseudo-label class usage during adaptation. Existing CTTA methods often address reliability or diversity through sample selection or loss weighting, but they do not explicitly control how pseudo-label mass is allocated across classes over time. We introduce **SCALAR** (Sinkhorn Class-Marginal Regularization), a lightweight plug-in module that implements this temporal control over a short window of recent predictions. SCALAR maintains a buffer of recent predictions, applies Sinkhorn balancing to project the window-level class marginal toward a target distribution, and then uses the resulting balanced soft targets for adaptation. SCALAR requires no architectural changes and adds less than 1\% runtime and memory overhead. SCALAR is most beneficial under skewed, non-stationary, and aggressive-adaptation regimes, where it substantially mitigates drift and collapse, even on top of entropy- and diversity-aware stabilization mechanisms.

Step distillation has become a leading technique for accelerating diffusion models, among which Distribution Matching Distillation (DMD) and Consistency Distillation are two representative paradigms. While consistency methods enforce self-consistency along the full PF-ODE trajectory to steer it toward the clean data manifold, vanilla DMD relies on sparse supervision at a few predefined discrete timesteps. This restricted discrete-time formulation and mode-seeking nature of the reverse KL divergence tends to exhibit visual artifacts and over-smoothed outputs, often necessitating complex auxiliary modules---such as GANs or reward models---to restore visual fidelity. _In this work, we introduce **C**ontinuous-Time **D**istribution **M**atching (**CDM**), migrating the DMD framework from discrete anchoring to continuous optimization for the first time._ CDM achieves this through two continuous-time designs. First, we replace the fixed discrete schedule with a dynamic continuous schedule of random length, so that distribution matching is enforced at arbitrary points along sampling trajectories rather than only at a few fixed anchors. Second, we propose a continuous-time alignment objective that performs active off-trajectory matching on latents extrapolated via the student's velocity field, improving generalization and preserving fine visual details. Extensive experiments on different architectures, including SD3-Medium and Longcat-Image, demonstrate that CDM provides highly competitive visual fidelity for few-step image generation without relying on complex auxiliary objectives.

Test-time scaling often uses an external verifier, such as compilers and test-cases in coding or trained value functions in robotics application, to obtain high quality rollouts. Verifier-free test-time scaling (or VF-TTS) is gaining extensive attention as a mechanism to enhance Large Language Model (LLM) reasoning, primarily because in many real-world applications we do not have access to such high quality verifiers. Among existing VF-TTS methods, confidence-based VF-TTS methods, which compute and rank rollouts solely by confidence, are particularly promising. Such methods introduce near-zero overhead for sample evaluation and require minimal access to internal model states, making the methods highly flexible across models and data. In this paper, we demonstrate a critical limitation of existing confidence-based VF-TTS methods by showing that such methods catastrophically break down on complex tasks. We observe a very interesting phenomenon: uniformly high confidence frequently indicates a failure to explore, favoring confidently wrong answers. To address this, our core insight is that robust cognitive search requires a specific confidence trajectory pattern: such methods perform exploratory branching at the beginning as manifested by low initial confidence, and converge to a high final confidence solution. To implement this insight, we introduce consilience, a novel selection framework that explicitly evaluates the temporal asymmetry of confidence in reasoning. We operationalize this via a combinatorial metric that actively penalizes high initial confidence while strictly demanding final certainty. Extensive experiments covering both graduate-level mathematics problems and free-form code generation demonstrate that consilience effectively outperforms existing baselines, validating our novel perspective on completion confidence.

We propose a conservative continuous-time stochastic control framework for treatment optimization from irregularly sampled patient trajectories. We model the unknown patient dynamics as a controlled stochastic differential equation where treatment is a continuous-time control input. Naive model-based optimization can exploit model errors and propose out-of-distribution controls that appear optimal under the learned model but perform poorly under the true dynamics. To mitigate such extrapolation, we introduce a consistent, signature kernel MMD regularizer on path space, which penalizes controls whose predicted trajectories deviate from observed ones. The resulting conservative objective minimizes a tractable upper bound on the true cost. Experiments on pharmacometric simulators show improved robustness and performance compared to non-conservative baselines.

Uncertainty quantification is crucial in scientific machine learning, where models inform safety-critical tasks such as flood forecasting, financial risk management, and thermal control in machines. Conformal prediction provides distribution-free coverage guarantees, but in time-dependent settings common to physics and engineering, these guarantees can break down, leading to systematic undercoverage. We study this problem in the context of surrogate models for time-dependent physical systems described by partial differential equations. We prove that in a function space setting, distributions at arbitrarily close times can be mutually singular, making exact coverage guarantees impossible. We further show that in discretized settings, the total variation distance between distributions often grows exponentially with the grid resolution mandating restrictions on the spatial discretization to ensure coverage. Finally, for certain settings, we show how to use principled weighted conformal prediction to obtain finite-sample coverage guarantees over growing time horizons.

Scaling test-time compute has emerged as a powerful mechanism for enhancing Large Language Model (LLM) performance. However, standard post-training paradigms, Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) and Reinforcement Learning (RL), optimize the likelihood of individual samples under a base policy, creating a misalignment with test time procedures that rely on aggregated or filtered outputs. In this work, we propose Compute Aligned Training, which aligns training objectives with test-time strategies. By conceptualizing inference strategies as operators on the base policy, we derive new loss functions that maximize performance when said strategies are applied. We instantiate such loss functions for SFT and RL across common test time strategies. Finally, we provide empirical evidence that this training method substantially improves test time scaling over standard training.

Out-of-Distribution (OOD) detection requires sensitivity to subtle shifts without overreacting to natural In-Distribution (ID) diversity. However, from the viewpoint of detection granularity, global representation inevitably suppresses local OOD cues, while patch-based methods are unstable due to entangled spurious-correlation and noise. And neither of them is effective in detecting compositional OODs composed of valid ID components. Inspired by recognition-by-components theory, we present a post-hoc Component-Based OOD Detection (CoOD) framework that addresses the existing limitations by decomposing inputs into functional components. To instantiate CoOD, we derive Component Shift Score (CSS) to detect local appearance shifts, and Compositional Consistency Score (CCS) to identify cross-component compositional inconsistencies. Empirically, CoOD achieves consistent improvements on both coarse- and fine-grained OOD detection.

Money laundering detection on financial transaction graphs is critical but challenging. Laundering activities often conceal illicit fund flows within dense legitimate transaction neighborhoods and disperse suspicious behaviors over extended time spans. These patterns cause weak illicit signals to be spatially diluted and temporally forgotten, limiting the effectiveness of standard graph learning methods in AML scenarios. In this paper, we propose a spatio-temporal dual denoising framework for money laundering detection on evolving graphs, named EvoDen. For spatial denoising, instead of relying on passive neighborhood aggregation, we design a risk-potential guided walk mechanism to extract denoised and suspicion-biased transaction sequences, enabling the model to isolate anomalous fund flows from noisy local neighborhoods. For temporal denoising, we propose a continual Transformer-based sequence learning method driven by a reconstruction objective, which learns denoised sequence representations while enabling latent-space replay of historical knowledge to mitigate representation drift. We conduct experiments on three transaction datasets, and the results show that EvoDen outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in accurately identifying concealed money laundering entities.

The Hessian of the energy with respect to the nuclear positions is indispensable in atomistic modelling. However, constructing this matrix requires $O(N)$ Hessian vector products, traditionally limiting high-accuracy Hessians to small systems. Machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) have accelerated atomistic modelling by providing highly accurate energies and forces at $O(N)$ cost, yet the resulting $O(N^2)$ cost of Hessians remains a practical bottleneck for large systems. Based on the insight that we can derive the sparsity pattern for an MLIP's Hessians in closed form, we show in this paper how to use techniques from sparse automatic differentiation to reduce the cost of a local MLIP's Hessians to a system-size-independent number of Hessian-vector products, yielding overall $O(N)$ total cost without any approximations. We benchmark our approach on a variety of systems ranging from alkane chains to water clusters to A$\beta$40 conformers. Depending on the MLIP configuration, we achieve the linear scaling regime already on relatively small systems, resulting in large runtime reductions between $2\times-15\times$ for these systems. This opens up the possibility of scaling high-accuracy MLIP Hessians to very large systems, such as proteins that were previously inaccessible.

Reinforcement Learning from Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has driven recent progress in code large language models by leveraging execution-based feedback from unit tests, but its scalability is fundamentally constrained by the availability and reliability of high-quality test cases. We propose **CodeScaler**, a reward model designed to scale both reinforcement learning training and test-time inference for code generation. **CodeScaler** is trained on carefully curated preference data derived from verified code problems and incorporates syntax-aware code extraction and validity-preserving reward shaping to ensure stable and robust optimization. Across four coding benchmarks, **CodeScaler** consistently outperforms execution-based RL by **+1.55** points on Qwen3-8B-Base and **+4.23** points on Qwen3-14B-Base. By further scaling to 44K problems with additional synthetic data, **CodeScaler** yields **+14.64** points improvement over the base model without requiring any test cases. At inference time, **CodeScaler** serves as an effective test-time scaling method, achieving performance comparable to unit test approaches while providing a **10×** reduction in latency. Moreover, **CodeScaler** surpasses existing reward models on RM-Bench not only in the code domain (**+3.3** points), but also in general and reasoning domains (**+2.7** points on average).

Reliable deployment of time series classifiers in high-stakes domains requires explanations that capture the interplay between localized patterns and global temporal context. However, existing post-hoc methods often treat local features in isolation, failing to account for long-range dependencies. We propose CoLaX, a context-aware explanation framework that explicitly embeds local dynamics within a global temporal structure. By employing a principled context-conditioning mechanism, CoLaX models how global context modulates the importance of local patterns, revealing not only what is important but also when and why it matters. Extensive benchmarks demonstrate that CoLaX yields significantly more faithful and stable explanations than state-of-the-art baselines, demonstrating that joint local-global modeling is essential for reliable time-series interpretability.

Deep models for medical time series can achieve strong benchmark accuracy yet remain brittle under acquisition artifacts, physiological variability, and low-resource training conditions. We present \textbf{ClinStab}, a Medformer-based framework for EEG and ECG classification that studies whether channel-aware dual-stream interaction and perturbation-aware optimization can improve the clean/robustness tradeoff. The proposed \textbf{S}alience-\textbf{C}ontext \textbf{D}ual \textbf{M}odulation (SCDM) module uses energy as a routing prior: high-energy channel-aligned components receive attentive modeling, while residual components remain trainable through a lightweight context pathway. ClinStab then combines clean supervision, perturbed supervision, prediction consistency, and teacher-guided stabilization under adversarial perturbations. Across four public datasets and 11 baselines, ClinStab improves accuracy over Medformer on all datasets and improves selected robustness metrics under the perturbation settings studied here, while exposing tradeoffs on PTB ranking metrics and soft-routing alternatives. These results support ClinStab as a practical same-backbone stability intervention, not as evidence of universal clinical robustness.

Causal discovery aims to uncover the causal relationships among variables beyond correlations from observational data. On time series, a major challenge is nonstationarity, which is typically modeled as regime-based shifts or drifting causal strength. In contrast, we consider non-stationarity arising from varying cause-to-effect delay, and introduce a causal model that is identifiable with few assumptions. To discover causal relationships with varying causal delay in practice, we formalize the problem in terms of the algorithmic model of causation, and propose STRETCH to discover causal graphs. We show on synthetic data that our method correctly recovers the causal relationships, and show the relevance of this causal model on a case study on the impact of El Niño climatic phenomenon on Indian monsoon.