NeurIPS 2023 论文列表

Deciding on an appropriate intervention requires a causal model of a treatment, the outcome, and potential mediators. Causal mediation analysis lets us distinguish between direct and indirect effects of the intervention, but has mostly been studied in a static setting. In healthcare, data come in the form of complex, irregularly sampled time-series, with dynamic interdependencies between a treatment, outcomes, and mediators across time. Existing approaches to dynamic causal mediation analysis are limited to regular measurement intervals, simple parametric models, and disregard long-range mediator--outcome interactions. To address these limitations, we propose a non-parametric mediator--outcome model where the mediator is assumed to be a temporal point process that interacts with the outcome process. With this model, we estimate the direct and indirect effects of an external intervention on the outcome, showing how each of these affects the whole future trajectory. We demonstrate on semi-synthetic data that our method can accurately estimate direct and indirect effects. On real-world healthcare data, our model infers clinically meaningful direct and indirect effect trajectories for blood glucose after a surgery.

The goal of causal representation learning is to find a representation of data that consists of causally related latent variables. We consider a setup where one has access to data from multiple domains that potentially share a causal representation. Crucially, observations in different domains are assumed to be unpaired, that is, we only observe the marginal distribution in each domain but not their joint distribution. In this paper, we give sufficient conditions for identifiability of the joint distribution and the shared causal graph in a linear setup. Identifiability holds if we can uniquely recover the joint distribution and the shared causal representation from the marginal distributions in each domain. We transform our results into a practical method to recover the shared latent causal graph.

A common concern when a policymaker draws causal inferences from and makes decisions based on observational data is that the measured covariates are insufficiently rich to account for all sources of confounding, i.e., the standard no confoundedness assumption fails to hold. The recently proposed proximal causal inference framework shows that proxy variables that abound in real-life scenarios can be leveraged to identify causal effects and therefore facilitate decision-making. Building upon this line of work, we propose a novel optimal individualized treatment regime based on so-called outcome and treatment confounding bridges. We then show that the value function of this new optimal treatment regime is superior to that of existing ones in the literature. Theoretical guarantees, including identification, superiority, excess value bound, and consistency of the estimated regime, are established. Furthermore, we demonstrate the proposed optimal regime via numerical experiments and a real data application.

We tackle the problem of graph out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization. Existing graph OOD algorithms either rely on restricted assumptions or fail to exploit environment information in training data. In this work, we propose to simultaneously incorporate label and environment causal independence (LECI) to fully make use of label and environment information, thereby addressing the challenges faced by prior methods on identifying causal and invariant subgraphs. We further develop an adversarial training strategy to jointly optimize these two properties for casual subgraph discovery with theoretical guarantees. Extensive experiments and analysis show that LECI significantly outperforms prior methods on both synthetic and real-world datasets, establishing LECI as a practical and effective solution for graph OOD generalization.

In many scientific applications, we observe a system in different conditions in which its components may change, rather than in isolation. In our work, we are interested in explaining the generating process of such a multi-context system using a finite mixture of causal mechanisms. Recent work shows that this causal model is identifiable from data, but is limited to settings where the sparse mechanism shift hypothesis holds and only a subset of the causal conditionals change. As this assumption is not easily verifiable in practice, we study the more general principle that mechanism shifts are independent, which we formalize using the algorithmic notion of independence. We introduce an approach for causal discovery beyond partially directed graphs using Gaussian Process models, and give conditions under which we provably identify the correct causal model. In our experiments, we show that our method performs well in a range of synthetic settings, on realistic gene expression simulations, as well as on real-world cell signaling data.

Tracking an arbitrary moving target in a video sequence is the foundation for high-level tasks like video understanding. Although existing visual-based trackers have demonstrated good tracking capabilities in short video sequences, they always perform poorly in complex environments, as represented by the recently proposed global instance tracking task, which consists of longer videos with more complicated narrative content. Recently, several works have introduced natural language into object tracking, desiring to address the limitations of relying only on a single visual modality. However, these selected videos are still short sequences with uncomplicated spatio-temporal and causal relationships, and the provided semantic descriptions are too simple to characterize video content. To address these issues, we (1) first propose a new multi-modal global instance tracking benchmark named MGIT. It consists of 150 long video sequences with a total of 2.03 million frames, aiming to fully represent the complex spatio-temporal and causal relationships coupled in longer narrative content. (2) Each video sequence is annotated with three semantic grains (i.e., action, activity, and story) to model the progressive process of human cognition. We expect this multi-granular annotation strategy can provide a favorable environment for multi-modal object tracking research and long video understanding. (3) Besides, we execute comparative experiments on existing multi-modal object tracking benchmarks, which not only explore the impact of different annotation methods, but also validate that our annotation method is a feasible solution for coupling human understanding into semantic labels. (4) Additionally, we conduct detailed experimental analyses on MGIT, and hope the explored performance bottlenecks of existing algorithms can support further research in multi-modal object tracking. The proposed benchmark, experimental results, and toolkit will be released gradually on http://videocube.aitestunion.com/.

Structural causal models (SCMs) are a powerful tool for understanding the complex causal relationships that underlie many real-world systems. As these systems grow in size, the number of variables and complexity of interactions between them does, too. Thus, becoming convoluted and difficult to analyze. This is particularly true in the context of machine learning and artificial intelligence, where an ever increasing amount of data demands for new methods to simplify and compress large scale SCM. While methods for marginalizing and abstracting SCM already exist today, they may destroy the causality of the marginalized model. To alleviate this, we introduce the concept of consolidating causal mechanisms to transform large-scale SCM while preserving consistent interventional behaviour. We show consolidation is a powerful method for simplifying SCM, discuss reduction of computational complexity and give a perspective on generalizing abilities of consolidated SCM.

A major challenge in reinforcement learning is to determine which state-action pairs are responsible for future rewards that are delayed. Reward redistribution serves as a solution to re-assign credits for each time step from observed sequences. While the majority of current approaches construct the reward redistribution in an uninterpretable manner, we propose to explicitly model the contributions of state and action from a causal perspective, resulting in an interpretable reward redistribution and preserving policy invariance. In this paper, we start by studying the role of causal generative models in reward redistribution by characterizing the generation of Markovian rewards and trajectory-wise long-term return and further propose a framework, called Generative Return Decomposition (GRD), for policy optimization in delayed reward scenarios. Specifically, GRD first identifies the unobservable Markovian rewards and causal relations in the generative process. Then, GRD makes use of the identified causal generative model to form a compact representation to train policy over the most favorable subspace of the state space of the agent. Theoretically, we show that the unobservable Markovian reward function is identifiable, as well as the underlying causal structure and causal models. Experimental results show that our method outperforms state-of-the-art methods and the provided visualization further demonstrates the interpretability of our method. The project page is located at [https://reedzyd.github.io/GenerativeReturnDecomposition/](https://reedzyd.github.io/GenerativeReturnDecomposition/).

Rationalization aims to strengthen the interpretability of NLP models by extracting a subset of human-intelligible pieces of their inputting texts. Conventional works generally employ the maximum mutual information (MMI) criterion to find the rationale that is most indicative of the target label. However, this criterion can be influenced by spurious features that correlate with the causal rationale or the target label. Instead of attempting to rectify the issues of the MMI criterion, we propose a novel criterion to uncover the causal rationale, termed the Minimum Conditional Dependence (MCD) criterion, which is grounded on our finding that the non-causal features and the target label are \emph{d-separated} by the causal rationale. By minimizing the dependence between the non-selected parts of the input and the target label conditioned on the selected rationale candidate, all the causes of the label are compelled to be selected. In this study, we employ a simple and practical measure for dependence, specifically the KL-divergence, to validate our proposed MCD criterion. Empirically, we demonstrate that MCD improves the F1 score by up to 13.7% compared to previous state-of-the-art MMI-based methods. Our code is in an anonymous repository: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/MCD-CE88.

Causality is a central concept in a wide range of research areas, yet there is still no universally agreed axiomatisation of causality. We view causality both as an extension of probability theory and as a study of what happens when one intervenes on a system, and argue in favour of taking Kolmogorov's measure-theoretic axiomatisation of probability as the starting point towards an axiomatisation of causality. To that end, we propose the notion of a causal space, consisting of a probability space along with a collection of transition probability kernels, called causal kernels, that encode the causal information of the space. Our proposed framework is not only rigorously grounded in measure theory, but it also sheds light on long-standing limitations of existing frameworks including, for example, cycles, latent variables and stochastic processes.

We study the problem of learning causal representations from unknown, latent interventions in a general setting, where the latent distribution is Gaussian but the mixing function is completely general. We prove strong identifiability results given unknown single-node interventions, i.e., without having access to the intervention targets. This generalizes prior works which have focused on weaker classes, such as linear maps or paired counterfactual data. This is also the first instance of identifiability from non-paired interventions for deep neural network embeddings and general causal structures. Our proof relies on carefully uncovering the high-dimensional geometric structure present in the data distribution after a non-linear density transformation, which we capture by analyzing quadratic forms of precision matrices of the latent distributions. Finally, we propose a contrastive algorithm to identify the latent variables in practice and evaluate its performance on various tasks.

Causal identification is at the core of the causal inference literature, where complete algorithms have been proposed to identify causal queries of interest. The validity of these algorithms hinges on the restrictive assumption of having access to a correctly specified causal structure. In this work, we study the setting where a probabilistic model of the causal structure is available. Specifically, the edges in a causal graph exist with uncertainties which may, for example, represent degree of belief from domain experts. Alternatively, the uncertainty about an edge may reflect the confidence of a particular statistical test. The question that naturally arises in this setting is: Given such a probabilistic graph and a specific causal effect of interest, what is the subgraph which has the highest plausibility and for which the causal effect is identifiable? We show that answering this question reduces to solving an NP-hard combinatorial optimization problem which we call the edge ID problem. We propose efficient algorithms to approximate this problem and evaluate them against both real-world networks and randomly generated graphs.

Sequential recommendation aims to recommend the next item that matches a user’s interest, based on the sequence of items he/she interacted with before. Scrutinizing previous studies, we can summarize a common learning-to-classify paradigm— given a positive item, a recommender model performs negative sampling to add negative items and learns to classify whether the user prefers them or not, based on his/her historical interaction sequence. Although effective, we reveal two inherent limitations: (1) it may differ from human behavior in that a user could imagine an oracle item in mind and select potential items matching the oracle; and (2) the classification is limited in the candidate pool with noisy or easy supervision from negative samples, which dilutes the preference signals towards the oracle item. Yet, generating the oracle item from the historical interaction sequence is mostly unexplored. To bridge the gap, we reshape sequential recommendation as a learning-to-generate paradigm, which is achieved via a guided diffusion model, termed DreamRec. Specifically, for a sequence of historical items, it applies a Transformer encoder to create guidance representations. Noising target items explores the underlying distribution of item space; then, with the guidance of historical interactions, the denoising process generates an oracle item to recover the positive item, so as to cast off negative sampling and depict the true preference of the user directly. We evaluate the effectiveness of DreamRec through extensive experiments and comparisons with existing methods. Codes and data are open-sourced at https://github.com/YangZhengyi98/DreamRec.

Constraint-based causal discovery methods leverage conditional independence tests to infer causal relationships in a wide variety of applications. Just as the majority of machine learning methods, existing work focuses on studying $\textit{independent and identically distributed}$ data. However, it is known that even with infinite $i.i.d.\$ data, constraint-based methods can only identify causal structures up to broad Markov equivalence classes, posing a fundamental limitation for causal discovery. In this work, we observe that exchangeable data contains richer conditional independence structure than $i.i.d.\$ data, and show how the richer structure can be leveraged for causal discovery. We first present causal de Finetti theorems, which state that exchangeable distributions with certain non-trivial conditional independences can always be represented as $\textit{independent causal mechanism (ICM)}$ generative processes. We then present our main identifiability theorem, which shows that given data from an ICM generative process, its unique causal structure can be identified through performing conditional independence tests. We finally develop a causal discovery algorithm and demonstrate its applicability to inferring causal relationships from multi-environment data.

Causal disentanglement aims to uncover a representation of data using latent variables that are interrelated through a causal model. Such a representation is identifiable if the latent model that explains the data is unique. In this paper, we focus on the scenario where unpaired observational and interventional data are available, with each intervention changing the mechanism of a latent variable. When the causal variables are fully observed, statistically consistent algorithms have been developed to identify the causal model under faithfulness assumptions. We here show that identifiability can still be achieved with unobserved causal variables, given a generalized notion of faithfulness. Our results guarantee that we can recover the latent causal model up to an equivalence class and predict the effect of unseen combinations of interventions, in the limit of infinite data. We implement our causal disentanglement framework by developing an autoencoding variational Bayes algorithm and apply it to the problem of predicting combinatorial perturbation effects in genomics.

Additive Noise Models (ANMs) are a common model class for causal discovery from observational data. Due to a lack of real-world data for which an underlying ANM is known, ANMs with randomly sampled parameters are commonly used to simulate data for the evaluation of causal discovery algorithms. While some parameters may be fixed by explicit assumptions, fully specifying an ANM requires choosing all parameters. Reisach et al. (2021) show that, for many ANM parameter choices, sorting the variables by increasing variance yields an ordering close to a causal order and introduce ‘var-sortability’ to quantify this alignment. Since increasing variances may be unrealistic and cannot be exploited when data scales are arbitrary, ANM data are often rescaled to unit variance in causal discovery benchmarking. We show that synthetic ANM data are characterized by another pattern that is scale-invariant and thus persists even after standardization: the explainable fraction of a variable’s variance, as captured by the coefficient of determination $R^2$, tends to increase along the causal order. The result is high ‘$R^2$-sortability’, meaning that sorting the variables by increasing $R^2$ yields an ordering close to a causal order. We propose a computationally efficient baseline algorithm termed ‘$R^2$-SortnRegress’ that exploits high $R^2$-sortability and that can match and exceed the performance of established causal discovery algorithms. We show analytically that sufficiently high edge weights lead to a relative decrease of the noise contributions along causal chains, resulting in increasingly deterministic relationships and high $R^2$. We characterize $R^2$-sortability on synthetic data with different simulation parameters and find high values in common settings. Our findings reveal high $R^2$-sortability as an assumption about the data generating process relevant to causal discovery and implicit in many ANM sampling schemes. It should be made explicit, as its prevalence in real-world data is an open question. For causal discovery benchmarking, we provide implementations of $R^2$-sortability, the $R^2$-SortnRegress algorithm, and ANM simulation procedures in our library CausalDisco at https://causaldisco.github.io/CausalDisco/.

Explainable recommendation has attracted much attention from the industry and academic communities. It has shown great potential to improve the recommendation persuasiveness, informativeness and user satisfaction. In the past few years, while a lot of promising explainable recommender models have been proposed, the datasets used to evaluate them still suffer from several limitations, for example, the explanation ground truths are not labeled by the real users, the explanations are mostly single-modal and around only one aspect. To bridge these gaps, in this paper, we build a new explainable recommendation dataset, which, to our knowledge, is the first contribution that provides a large amount of real user labeled multi-modal and multi-aspect explaination ground truths. In specific, we firstly develop a video recommendation platform, where a series of questions around the recommendation explainability are carefully designed. Then, we recruit about 3000 high-quality labelers with different backgrounds to use the system, and collect their behaviors and feedback to our questions. In this paper, we detail the construction process of our dataset and also provide extensive analysis on its characteristics. In addition, we develop a library, where ten well-known explainable recommender models are implemented in a unified framework. Based on this library, we build several benchmarks for different explainable recommendation tasks. At last, we present many new opportunities brought by our dataset, which are expected to promote the field of explainable recommendation. Our dataset, library and the related documents have been released at https://reasoner2023.github.io/.

One of the fundamental challenges found throughout the data sciences is to explain why things happen in specific ways, or through which mechanisms a certain variable $X$ exerts influences over another variable $Y$. In statistics and machine learning, significant efforts have been put into developing machinery to estimate correlations across variables efficiently. In causal inference, a large body of literature is concerned with the decomposition of causal effects under the rubric of mediation analysis. However, many variations are spurious in nature, including different phenomena throughout the applied sciences. Despite the statistical power to estimate correlations and the identification power to decompose causal effects, there is still little understanding of the properties of spurious associations and how they can be decomposed in terms of the underlying causal mechanisms. In this manuscript, we develop formal tools for decomposing spurious variations in both Markovian and Semi-Markovian models. We prove the first results that allow a non-parametric decomposition of spurious effects and provide sufficient conditions for the identification of such decompositions. The described approach has several applications, ranging from explainable and fair AI to questions in epidemiology and medicine, and we empirically demonstrate its use.

Sequential recommender systems (SRSs) are typically trained to predict the next item as the target given its preceding (and succeeding) items as the input. Such a paradigm assumes that every input-target pair is reliable for training. However, users can be induced to click on items that are inconsistent with their true preferences, resulting in unreliable instances, i.e., mismatched input-target pairs. Current studies on mitigating this issue suffer from two limitations: (i) they discriminate instance reliability according to models trained with unreliable data, yet without theoretical guarantees that such a seemingly contradictory solution can be effective; and (ii) most methods can only tackle either unreliable input or targets but fail to handle both simultaneously. To fill the gap, we theoretically unveil the relationship between SRS predictions and instance reliability, whereby two error-bounded strategies are proposed to rectify unreliable targets and input, respectively. On this basis, we devise a model-agnostic Bidirectional Data Rectification (BirDRec) framework, which can be flexibly implemented with most existing SRSs for robust training against unreliable data. Additionally, a rectification sampling strategy is devised and a self-ensemble mechanism is adopted to reduce the (time and space) complexity of BirDRec. Extensive experiments on four real-world datasets verify the generality, effectiveness, and efficiency of our proposed BirDRec.