NeurIPS 2017 论文列表

Humanity faces numerous problems of common-pool resource appropriation. This class of multi-agent social dilemma includes the problems of ensuring sustainable use of fresh water, common fisheries, grazing pastures, and irrigation systems. Abstract models of common-pool resource appropriation based on non-cooperative game theory predict that self-interested agents will generally fail to find socially positive equilibria---a phenomenon called the tragedy of the commons. However, in reality, human societies are sometimes able to discover and implement stable cooperative solutions. Decades of behavioral game theory research have sought to uncover aspects of human behavior that make this possible. Most of that work was based on laboratory experiments where participants only make a single choice: how much to appropriate. Recognizing the importance of spatial and temporal resource dynamics, a recent trend has been toward experiments in more complex real-time video game-like environments. However, standard methods of non-cooperative game theory can no longer be used to generate predictions for this case. Here we show that deep reinforcement learning can be used instead. To that end, we study the emergent behavior of groups of independently learning agents in a partially observed Markov game modeling common-pool resource appropriation. Our experiments highlight the importance of trial-and-error learning in common-pool resource appropriation and shed light on the relationship between exclusion, sustainability, and inequality.

A key feature of neural network architectures is their ability to support the simultaneous interaction among large numbers of units in the learning and processing of representations. However, how the richness of such interactions trades off against the ability of a network to simultaneously carry out multiple independent processes -- a salient limitation in many domains of human cognition -- remains largely unexplored. In this paper we use a graph-theoretic analysis of network architecture to address this question, where tasks are represented as edges in a bipartite graph $G=(A \cup B, E)$. We define a new measure of multitasking capacity of such networks, based on the assumptions that tasks that \emph{need} to be multitasked rely on independent resources, i.e., form a matching, and that tasks \emph{can} be performed without interference if they form an induced matching. Our main result is an inherent tradeoff between the multitasking capacity and the average degree of the network that holds \emph{regardless of the network architecture}. These results are also extended to networks of depth greater than $2$. On the positive side, we demonstrate that networks that are random-like (e.g., locally sparse) can have desirable multitasking properties. Our results shed light into the parallel-processing limitations of neural systems and provide insights that may be useful for the analysis and design of parallel architectures.

We propose an alternative framework to existing setups for controlling false alarms when multiple A/B tests are run over time. This setup arises in many practical applications, e.g. when pharmaceutical companies test new treatment options against control pills for different diseases, or when internet companies test their default webpages versus various alternatives over time. Our framework proposes to replace a sequence of A/B tests by a sequence of best-arm MAB instances, which can be continuously monitored by the data scientist. When interleaving the MAB tests with an online false discovery rate (FDR) algorithm, we can obtain the best of both worlds: low sample complexity and any time online FDR control. Our main contributions are: (i) to propose reasonable definitions of a null hypothesis for MAB instances; (ii) to demonstrate how one can derive an always-valid sequential p-value that allows continuous monitoring of each MAB test; and (iii) to show that using rejection thresholds of online-FDR algorithms as the confidence levels for the MAB algorithms results in both sample-optimality, high power and low FDR at any point in time. We run extensive simulations to verify our claims, and also report results on real data collected from the New Yorker Cartoon Caption contest.

A problem that has been of recent interest in statistical inference, machine learning and signal processing is that of understanding the asymptotic behavior of regularized least squares solutions under random measurement matrices (or dictionaries). The Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO or least-squares with $\ell_1$ regularization) is perhaps one of the most interesting examples. Precise expressions for the asymptotic performance of LASSO have been obtained for a number of different cases, in particular when the elements of the dictionary matrix are sampled independently from a Gaussian distribution. It has also been empirically observed that the resulting expressions remain valid when the entries of the dictionary matrix are independently sampled from certain non-Gaussian distributions. In this paper, we confirm these observations theoretically when the distribution is sub-Gaussian. We further generalize the previous expressions for a broader family of regularization functions and under milder conditions on the underlying random, possibly non-Gaussian, dictionary matrix. In particular, we establish the universality of the asymptotic statistics (e.g., the average quadratic risk) of LASSO with non-Gaussian dictionaries.

There has been a resurgence of interest in multiagent reinforcement learning (MARL), due partly to the recent success of deep neural networks. The simplest form of MARL is independent reinforcement learning (InRL), where each agent treats all of its experience as part of its (non stationary) environment. In this paper, we first observe that policies learned using InRL can overfit to the other agents' policies during training, failing to sufficiently generalize during execution. We introduce a new metric, joint-policy correlation, to quantify this effect. We describe a meta-algorithm for general MARL, based on approximate best responses to mixtures of policies generated using deep reinforcement learning, and empirical game theoretic analysis to compute meta-strategies for policy selection. The meta-algorithm generalizes previous algorithms such as InRL, iterated best response, double oracle, and fictitious play. Then, we propose a scalable implementation which reduces the memory requirement using decoupled meta-solvers. Finally, we demonstrate the generality of the resulting policies in three partially observable settings: gridworld coordination problems, emergent language games, and poker.

Understanding why a model makes a certain prediction can be as crucial as the prediction's accuracy in many applications. However, the highest accuracy for large modern datasets is often achieved by complex models that even experts struggle to interpret, such as ensemble or deep learning models, creating a tension between accuracy and interpretability. In response, various methods have recently been proposed to help users interpret the predictions of complex models, but it is often unclear how these methods are related and when one method is preferable over another. To address this problem, we present a unified framework for interpreting predictions, SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations). SHAP assigns each feature an importance value for a particular prediction. Its novel components include: (1) the identification of a new class of additive feature importance measures, and (2) theoretical results showing there is a unique solution in this class with a set of desirable properties. The new class unifies six existing methods, notable because several recent methods in the class lack the proposed desirable properties. Based on insights from this unification, we present new methods that show improved computational performance and/or better consistency with human intuition than previous approaches.

In the 1-dimensional multiple changepoint detection problem, we derive a new fast error rate for the fused lasso estimator, under the assumption that the mean vector has a sparse number of changepoints. This rate is seen to be suboptimal (compared to the minimax rate) by only a factor of $\log\log{n}$. Our proof technique is centered around a novel construction that we call a lower interpolant. We extend our results to misspecified models and exponential family distributions. We also describe the implications of our error analysis for the approximate screening of changepoints.

We discover a screening rule for l1-regularized Ising model estimation. The simple closed-form screening rule is a necessary and sufficient condition for exactly recovering the blockwise structure of a solution under any given regularization parameters. With enough sparsity, the screening rule can be combined with various optimization procedures to deliver solutions efficiently in practice. The screening rule is especially suitable for large-scale exploratory data analysis, where the number of variables in the dataset can be thousands while we are only interested in the relationship among a handful of variables within moderate-size clusters for interpretability. Experimental results on various datasets demonstrate the efficiency and insights gained from the introduction of the screening rule.

Existing strategies for finite-armed stochastic bandits mostly depend on a parameter of scale that must be known in advance. Sometimes this is in the form of a bound on the payoffs, or the knowledge of a variance or subgaussian parameter. The notable exceptions are the analysis of Gaussian bandits with unknown mean and variance by Cowan and Katehakis [2015a] and of uniform distributions with unknown support [Cowan and Katehakis, 2015b]. The results derived in these specialised cases are generalised here to the non-parametric setup, where the learner knows only a bound on the kurtosis of the noise, which is a scale free measure of the extremity of outliers.

We introduce a new sample complexity measure, which we refer to as split-sample growth rate. For any hypothesis $H$ and for any sample $S$ of size $m$, the split-sample growth rate $\hat{\tau}_H(m)$ counts how many different hypotheses can empirical risk minimization output on any sub-sample of $S$ of size $m/2$. We show that the expected generalization error is upper bounded by $O\left(\sqrt{\frac{\log(\hat{\tau}_H(2m))}{m}}\right)$. Our result is enabled by a strengthening of the Rademacher complexity analysis of the expected generalization error. We show that this sample complexity measure, greatly simplifies the analysis of the sample complexity of optimal auction design, for many auction classes studied in the literature. Their sample complexity can be derived solely by noticing that in these auction classes, ERM on any sample or sub-sample will pick parameters that are equal to one of the points in the sample.

Modern neural networks are often augmented with an attention mechanism, which tells the network where to focus within the input. We propose in this paper a new framework for sparse and structured attention, building upon a smoothed max operator. We show that the gradient of this operator defines a mapping from real values to probabilities, suitable as an attention mechanism. Our framework includes softmax and a slight generalization of the recently-proposed sparsemax as special cases. However, we also show how our framework can incorporate modern structured penalties, resulting in more interpretable attention mechanisms, that focus on entire segments or groups of an input. We derive efficient algorithms to compute the forward and backward passes of our attention mechanisms, enabling their use in a neural network trained with backpropagation. To showcase their potential as a drop-in replacement for existing ones, we evaluate our attention mechanisms on three large-scale tasks: textual entailment, machine translation, and sentence summarization. Our attention mechanisms improve interpretability without sacrificing performance; notably, on textual entailment and summarization, we outperform the standard attention mechanisms based on softmax and sparsemax.

We present a probabilistic framework for nonlinearities, based on doubly truncated Gaussian distributions. By setting the truncation points appropriately, we are able to generate various types of nonlinearities within a unified framework, including sigmoid, tanh and ReLU, the most commonly used nonlinearities in neural networks. The framework readily integrates into existing stochastic neural networks (with hidden units characterized as random variables), allowing one for the first time to learn the nonlinearities alongside model weights in these networks. Extensive experiments demonstrate the performance improvements brought about by the proposed framework when integrated with the restricted Boltzmann machine (RBM), temporal RBM and the truncated Gaussian graphical model (TGGM).

We study the generalization error of randomized learning algorithms -- focusing on stochastic gradient descent (SGD) -- using a novel combination of PAC-Bayes and algorithmic stability. Importantly, our generalization bounds hold for all posterior distributions on an algorithm's random hyperparameters, including distributions that depend on the training data. This inspires an adaptive sampling algorithm for SGD that optimizes the posterior at runtime. We analyze this algorithm in the context of our generalization bounds and evaluate it on a benchmark dataset. Our experiments demonstrate that adaptive sampling can reduce empirical risk faster than uniform sampling while also improving out-of-sample accuracy.

Prevalent matrix completion theories reply on an assumption that the locations of the missing data are distributed uniformly and randomly (i.e., uniform sampling). Nevertheless, the reason for observations being missing often depends on the unseen observations themselves, and thus the missing data in practice usually occurs in a nonuniform and deterministic fashion rather than randomly. To break through the limits of random sampling, this paper introduces a new hypothesis called \emph{isomeric condition}, which is provably weaker than the assumption of uniform sampling and arguably holds even when the missing data is placed irregularly. Equipped with this new tool, we prove a series of theorems for missing data recovery and matrix completion. In particular, we prove that the exact solutions that identify the target matrix are included as critical points by the commonly used nonconvex programs. Unlike the existing theories for nonconvex matrix completion, which are built upon the same condition as convex programs, our theory shows that nonconvex programs have the potential to work with a much weaker condition. Comparing to the existing studies on nonuniform sampling, our setup is more general.

It is well known that, for a linear program (LP) with constraint matrix $\mathbf{A}\in\mathbb{R}^{m\times n}$, the Alternating Direction Method of Multiplier converges globally and linearly at a rate $O((\|\mathbf{A}\|_F^2+mn)\log(1/\epsilon))$. However, such a rate is related to the problem dimension and the algorithm exhibits a slow and fluctuating ``tail convergence'' in practice. In this paper, we propose a new variable splitting method of LP and prove that our method has a convergence rate of $O(\|\mathbf{A}\|^2\log(1/\epsilon))$. The proof is based on simultaneously estimating the distance from a pair of primal dual iterates to the optimal primal and dual solution set by certain residuals. In practice, we result in a new first-order LP solver that can exploit both the sparsity and the specific structure of matrix $\mathbf{A}$ and a significant speedup for important problems such as basis pursuit, inverse covariance matrix estimation, L1 SVM and nonnegative matrix factorization problem compared with current fastest LP solvers.

We consider the problem of accurately estimating the reliability of workers based on noisy labels they provide, which is a fundamental question in crowdsourcing. We propose a novel lower bound on the minimax estimation error which applies to any estimation procedure. We further propose Triangular Estimation (TE), an algorithm for estimating the reliability of workers. TE has low complexity, may be implemented in a streaming setting when labels are provided by workers in real time, and does not rely on an iterative procedure. We prove that TE is minimax optimal and matches our lower bound. We conclude by assessing the performance of TE and other state-of-the-art algorithms on both synthetic and real-world data.

Matrix factorization (MF) is one of the most popular techniques for product recommendation, but is known to suffer from serious cold-start problems. Item cold-start problems are particularly acute in settings such as Tweet recommendation where new items arrive continuously. In this paper, we present a meta-learning strategy to address item cold-start when new items arrive continuously. We propose two deep neural network architectures that implement our meta-learning strategy. The first architecture learns a linear classifier whose weights are determined by the item history while the second architecture learns a neural network whose biases are instead adjusted. We evaluate our techniques on the real-world problem of Tweet recommendation. On production data at Twitter, we demonstrate that our proposed techniques significantly beat the MF baseline and also outperform production models for Tweet recommendation.

We propose a novel adaptive test of goodness-of-fit, with computational cost linear in the number of samples. We learn the test features that best indicate the differences between observed samples and a reference model, by minimizing the false negative rate. These features are constructed via Stein's method, meaning that it is not necessary to compute the normalising constant of the model. We analyse the asymptotic Bahadur efficiency of the new test, and prove that under a mean-shift alternative, our test always has greater relative efficiency than a previous linear-time kernel test, regardless of the choice of parameters for that test. In experiments, the performance of our method exceeds that of the earlier linear-time test, and matches or exceeds the power of a quadratic-time kernel test. In high dimensions and where model structure may be exploited, our goodness of fit test performs far better than a quadratic-time two-sample test based on the Maximum Mean Discrepancy, with samples drawn from the model.

In this work, we try to understand the differences between exact and approximate inference algorithms in structured prediction. We compare the estimation and approximation error of both underestimate and overestimate models. The result shows that, from the perspective of learning errors, performances of approximate inference could be as good as exact inference. The error analyses also suggest a new margin for existing learning algorithms. Empirical evaluations on text classification, sequential labelling and dependency parsing witness the success of approximate inference and the benefit of the proposed margin.