ICML 2026 论文列表

A significant gap exists between theory and practice in deep learning. Generalization and approximation error bounds are often derived for simplified models or are too loose to be informative. Many rely on the manifold hypothesis and on geometric regularity such as intrinsic dimension, curvature, and reach. Progress requires insight into data-manifold geometry and suitable benchmarks, yet existing options are polarized: analytic manifolds with known geometry but limited applicability, or real-world datasets where geometry is only coarsely estimable. We introduce a benchmarking framework for studying data geometry. We repurpose and extend dSprites and COIL-20 with additional transformation dimensions and dense, axis-aligned sampling, and pair them with finite-difference estimators that recover curvature, reach, and volume at near-ground-truth accuracy in a regime where general-purpose estimators are unreliable or difficult to deploy. The framework is intended as a controlled testbed, useful as a calibration environment for geometric estimators and a sandbox for probing theoretical assumptions. To illustrate its use, we present two application studies, namely assessing the scaling behavior of the bounds of Genovese et al. and Fefferman et al., and tracking the layer-wise geometry of a $\beta$-VAE, highlighting the behavior of current bounds and the value of controlled benchmarks for guiding and validating future theory. A reference implementation is available at https://github.com/koulakis/manifold-microscope.

We study the problem of learning a drifting concept in the presence of Massart noise. In this framework, an online learner has access to a history of independent samples whose labels are noisy versions of a target concept that may change from round to round. The goal is to output, in each round, a hypothesis with small prediction error. We study the complexity of this learning problem for the fundamental class of margin-separable linear classifiers (halfspaces). On the positive side, we give a computationally efficient learner achieving error $\eta + \tilde O(\Delta^{1/3}/\gamma)$, where $\eta$ upper bounds the Massart noise rate, $\Delta$ is the drift rate, and $\gamma$ is the margin. Interestingly, in the realizable setting, an adaptation of our techniques yields an efficient learner with an improved error rate over prior work. On the lower-bound side, we provide formal evidence of an information-computation tradeoff, strongly suggesting that our algorithm's performance is essentially optimal. Specifically, while the information-theoretically optimal error scales with $\Delta^{1/2}$, we prove that $\Delta^{1/3}$-scaling is unavoidable for low-degree polynomial tests, even in the special case of random classification noise.

We study in-context learning for nonparametric regression with $\alpha$-Hölder smooth regression functions, for some $\alpha>0$. We prove that, with $n$ in-context examples and $d$-dimensional regression covariates, a pretrained transformer with $\Theta(\log n)$ parameters and $\Omega(n^{2\alpha/(2\alpha+d)}\log^3 n)$ pretraining sequences can achieve the minimax optimal rate of convergence $O(n^{-2\alpha/(2\alpha+d)})$ in mean squared error. Our result requires substantially fewer transformer parameters and pretraining sequences than previous results in the literature. This is achieved by showing that transformers are able to approximate local polynomial estimators efficiently by implementing a kernel-weighted polynomial basis and then running gradient descent.

The Rademacher complexity of a function class is among the most basic notions of its ``size'' and yields classical offline generalization bounds for Lipschitz loss functions that lead in turn to a modern understanding of statistical learning. More recently, the *sequential* and *offset* Rademacher complexities were introduced to prove analogous generalization bounds for online learning and for prediction with squared loss. A fundamental structural result in the theory of Rademacher complexity, with many applications to learning theory, is the Ledoux--Talagrand contraction lemma, which states that the Rademacher complexity of a composition of a function class with a fixed Lipschitz function is at most that of the original class. We show that, under structural assumptions on the function class, this contraction extends to sequential and offset Rademacher complexity at the price of polylogarithmic factors. We further show that these logarithmic factors cannot be removed in general and, absent these additional structural assumptions, no such contraction inequality can hold. These results together indicate that the sequential and offset Rademacher complexities behave fundamentally differently from the classical Rademacher complexity with respect to contraction, which in turn has broad implications for understanding the sample complexities of online learning and regression with squared loss for composed function classes.

Kleinberg and Mullainathan showed that language generation in the limit is always possible at the level of computability: given enough positive examples, a learner can eventually generate data indistinguishable from a target language. However, such existence results do not address feasibility. We study the sample complexity of language generation in the limit for several canonical classes of formal languages. Our results show that infeasibility already appears for context-free and regular languages, and persists even for strict subclasses such as locally threshold testable languages, as well as for incomparable classes such as non-erasing pattern languages, a well-studied class in the theory of language identification. Overall, our results establish a clear gap between the theoretical possibility of language generation in the limit and its computational feasibility.

The high cost of fine-tuning LLMs poses a significant economic barrier; pre-hoc performance prediction offers a critical solution to substantially reduce this expense. However, the theoretical limits of pre-hoc performance prediction remain unexplored. We formulate it as a stochastic estimation problem under information constraints, decomposing prediction risk into two components: an \textbf{intrinsic limit} (static data-model compatibility) and a \textbf{reducible optimization variance}. We prove that optimization variance admits a necessary lower bound on its decay rate, implying fundamental constraints on how quickly uncertainty dissipates, regardless of the predictor used. Based on these dynamics, we derive a budget-optimal probing principle and introduce a predictability phase diagram that organizes tasks into three distinct regimes: Static-Sufficient, Dynamic-Critical, and Noise-Dominant. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world benchmarks validate these theoretical regimes and demonstrate the efficiency of our probing strategy.

We study the fine-grainded uniform convergence behavior of halfspaces beyond worst-case VC bounds. For inhomogeneous halfspaces in $\mathbb{R}^d$ with $d\ge 2$, we show that standard first-order VC bounds are essentially tight: even consistent hypotheses can incur population error $\Theta(d\log(n/d)/n)$, and in the agnostic setting the deviation scales as $\sqrt{\tau\log(1/\tau)}$ at true error $\tau$. In contrast, homogeneous halfspaces in $\mathbb{R}^2$ exhibit a markedly different behavior. In the realizable case, every hypothesis consistent with the sample has error $O(1/n)$. In the agnostic case, we prove a bandwise, log-free deviation bound on each dyadic risk band via a critical-wedge localization argument. Unioning over bands incurs only a $\log\log n$ overhead, and we establish a matching lower bound showing this overhead is unavoidable. Together, these results give a fine-grained and nearly complete picture of uniform convergence for halfspaces, revealing sharp dimensional and structural thresholds.

Adversarial imitation learning (AIL) achieves high-quality imitation by mitigating compounding errors inherent to behavioral cloning (BC), yet its adversarial optimization frequently leads to training instability. A class of non-adversarial Q-based imitation learning (IL) methods, exemplified by IQ-Learn, has emerged to address this instability and is widely believed to outperform BC by leveraging online environment interactions. In this paper, we revisit IQ-Learn and prove that it in fact reduces to BC: it admits an imitation gap lower bound with quadratic dependence on the horizon and therefore remains susceptible to compounding errors. Our theoretical analysis reveals why online interactions fail to help: IQ-Learn uniformly suppresses Q-values for all actions at states not covered by demonstrations, preventing generalization beyond demonstrations. To address this fundamental limitation, we introduce Dual Q-DM, a new Q-based IL method built on Bellman constraints. Crucially, Bellman constraints drive value flow: Q-values propagate from demonstrated to unvisited states through environment dynamics, enabling generalization beyond demonstrations. We prove that Dual Q-DM is equivalent to AIL and can recover expert actions at unvisited states, thereby mitigating compounding errors. To the best of our knowledge, Dual Q-DM is the first non-adversarial IL method that is theoretically guaranteed to eliminate compounding errors. Experimental results further corroborate our theoretical findings.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization has attracted increasing research attention in recent years, owing to its promising empirical results in real-world applications. However, theoretical studies on OOD generalization remain limited, particularly with respect to lower bounds on the generalization error. To better understand how source data contributes to improved OOD generalization performance, we take an initial step toward establishing a lower bound on the OOD generalization error, and subsequently investigate upper bounds from the perspective of statistical learning theory. Interestingly, we find that under the RCS and empirical-RCS conditions, simply minimizing the average empirical risk over the source domains can yield a nearly optimal error rate (up to a logarithmic factor) \textit{without} requiring knowledge or estimation of distributional parameters or the discrepancy between source and target domains. This conditional result provides a theoretical perspective on the surprising phenomenon observed in DomainBed, where carefully designed OOD generalization algorithms fail to outperform the simple empirical risk minimization (ERM) algorithm. Our results also imply a no-free-lunch theorem and provide an optimistic bound for OOD generalization.