ICML 2026 论文列表

Synthesizing realistic time series with generative models has wide-ranging applications in real-world scenarios. Despite recent progress, most existing methods are trained under the assumption of abundant training data, which substantially limits their effectiveness in data-scarce settings. In this paper, we propose TimeMoDE, a novel framework that integrates Diffusion Transformers with Mixture-of-Experts to exploit both domain adaptability and diffusion-stage awareness for time series generation under data scarcity. It is pre-trained on a large-scale collection of multi-domain datasets to extract domain-agnostic temporal representations and domain-specific information benefiting generalization during fine-tuning. We propose Domain Prompts to condition expert assignment for indistinguishable noised tokens, mitigating the limitations of capturing inter-dataset relationships. Moreover, we incorporate diffusion timestep signals to equip the experts with awareness of time series degradation variations, facilitating adaptive calibrate to stage-dependent denoising requirements. Extensive experiments demonstrate that TimeMoDE outperforms existing methods under diverse low-data settings. It establishes an innovative paradigm for advanced time series few-shot generation.

The ability of the deep learning model to recognize when a sample falls outside its learned distribution is critical for safe and reliable deployment. Recent state-of-the-art out-of-distribution (OOD) detection methods leverage activation shaping to improve the separation between in-distribution (ID) and OOD inputs. These approaches resort to sample-specific scaling but apply a static percentile threshold across all samples regardless of their nature, resulting in suboptimal ID-OOD separability. In this work, we propose \textbf{AdaSCALE}, an adaptive scaling procedure that dynamically adjusts the percentile threshold based on a sample's estimated OODness. This estimation leverages our key observation: OOD samples exhibit significantly more pronounced activation shifts at high-magnitude activations under minor perturbation compared to ID samples. AdaSCALE enables stronger scaling for likely ID samples and weaker scaling for likely OOD samples, yielding highly separable energy scores. Our approach achieves state-of-the-art OOD detection performance, outperforming the latest rival OptFS by $\textbf{14.94}$% in near-OOD and $\textbf{21.28}$% in far-OOD datasets in average FPR@95 metric on the ImageNet-1k benchmark across eight diverse architectures.

Scaling factors in residual branches have emerged as a prevalent method for boosting neural network performance, especially in normalization-free architectures. While prior work has primarily examined scaling effects from an optimization perspective, this paper investigates their role in residual architectures through the lens of generalization theory. Specifically, we establish that wide residual networks (ResNets) with constant scaling factors become asymptotically unlearnable as depth increases. In contrast, when the scaling factor exhibits rapid depth-wise decay combined with early stopping, over-parameterized ResNets achieve minimax-optimal generalization rates. To establish this, we demonstrate that the generalization capability of wide ResNets can be approximated by the kernel regression associated with a specific kernel. Our theoretical findings are validated through experiments on synthetic data and real-world classification tasks, including MNIST and CIFAR-100.

Conformal prediction (CP) offers distribution-free uncertainty quantification for machine learning models, yet its interplay with fairness in downstream decision-making remains underexplored. Moving beyond CP as a standalone operation (procedural fairness), we analyze the holistic decision-making pipeline to evaluate substantive fairness—the equity of downstream outcomes. Theoretically, we derive an upper bound that decomposes prediction-set size disparity into interpretable components, clarifying how label-clustered CP helps control method-driven contributions to unfairness. To facilitate scalable empirical analysis, we introduce an LLM-in-the-loop evaluator that approximates human assessment of substantive fairness across diverse modalities. Our experiments show that label-clustered CP often provides a favorable balance between utility and substantive fairness, while reducing set-size disparities in line with our theory. Finally, we empirically show that equalized set sizes, rather than coverage, strongly correlate with improved substantive fairness, enabling practitioners to design more fair CP systems. Our code is available at https://github.com/layer6ai-labs/llm-in-the-loop-conformal-fairness.

Long input sequences are central to in-context learning, document understanding, and multi-step reasoning in Large Language Models (LLMs). However, the quadratic attention cost of Transformers makes inference memory-intensive and slow. While context distillation (CD) can transfer information into model parameters, per-prompt distillation is impractical due to training costs and latency. To address these limitations, we propose Doc-to-LoRA (D2L), a lightweight hypernetwork that meta-learns to perform approximate CD within a single forward pass. Given an unseen prompt, D2L generates a LoRA adapter for a target LLM, enabling subsequent queries to be answered without re-consuming the original context, reducing latency and KV-cache memory consumption during target LLM inference. On a long-context needle-in-a-haystack task, D2L successfully learns to map contexts into adapters that store the needle information, achieving near-perfect zero-shot accuracy at sequence lengths exceeding the target LLM’s native context window by more than 4x. On real-world QA datasets with limited compute, D2L outperforms standard CD while significantly reducing peak memory consumption and update latency. We envision that D2L can facilitate rapid adaptation of LLMs, opening up the possibility of frequent knowledge updates and personalized chat behavior. Code and checkpoints are available at https://github.com/SakanaAI/doc-to-lora.

We prove the first margin-based generalization bound for voting classifiers, that is asymptotically tight in the tradeoff between the size of the hypothesis set, the margin, the fraction of training points with the given margin, the number of training samples and the failure probability.

This paper studies the problem of graph out-of-distribution (OOD) detection, which aims to identify anomaly graphs out of a graph dataset. Prior efforts usually focus on the utilization of topological structures with unsupervised graph learning to foster typical pattern recognition, which overlooks the semantic structure preserved in contextually affine neighborhoods. Towards this end, we propose a novel approach named Contextual Affinity Exploration with Twin Concordance (CLINIC) for graph OOD detection. The core of CLINIC is to explore and exploit the contextual affinity of the graph data samples for discriminative graph representations. In particular, our CLINIC first builds a contextual affinity graph to depict the semantic structure in the hidden space. More importantly, we introduce high-order affinity to enhance geometric understanding of the structure by utilizing a meta-graph neural network. To enhance representation discriminability with high robustness, we introduce twin concordance learning, which not only minimizes the difference of affinity distributions across different views, but also encourages the consistency between contextually affinitive neighbors. Finally, we introduce a compression strategy to expand the decision boundary for enhanced separation between in-distribution and out-of-distribution graphs. Extensive experimental results demonstrate the superiority of our CLINIC across ten real datasets in comparison to various baselines.

Multi-task reinforcement learning trains generalist policies that can execute multiple tasks. While recent years have seen significant progress, existing approaches rarely provide formal performance guarantees, which are indispensable when deploying policies in safety-critical settings. We present an approach for computing high-confidence guarantees on the performance of a multi-task policy on tasks not seen during training. Concretely, we introduce a new generalisation bound that composes (i) per-task lower confidence bounds from finitely many rollouts with (ii) task-level generalisation from finitely many sampled tasks, yielding a high-confidence guarantee for new tasks drawn from the same arbitrary and unknown distribution. Across state-of-the-art multi-task RL methods, we show that the guarantees are theoretically sound and informative at realistic sample sizes.

Despite recent Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs)' linguistic prowess in medical diagnosis, we find even state-of-the-art MLLMs suffer from a critical perceptual deficit: **geometric blindness**. This failure to ground outputs in objective geometric constraints leads to plausible yet factually incorrect hallucinations, rooted in training paradigms that prioritize linguistic fluency over geometric fidelity. This paper introduces Med-Scout, a novel framework that "cures" this blindness via Reinforcement Learning (RL) that leverages the intrinsic geometric logic latent within unlabeled medical images. Instead of relying on costly expert annotations, Med-Scout derives verifiable supervision signals through three strategic proxy tasks inspired by the systematic reading and reasoning patterns of clinicians: Hierarchical Scale Localization, Topological Jigsaw Reconstruction, and Anomaly Consistency Detection. To rigorously quantify this deficit, we present Med-Scout-Bench, a new benchmark specifically designed to evaluate geometric perception. Extensive evaluations show that Med-Scout significantly mitigates geometric blindness, outperforming leading proprietary and open-source MLLMs by over **40%** on our benchmark. Furthermore, this enhanced geometric perception generalizes to broader medical understanding, achieving superior results on radiological and comprehensive medical VQA tasks. The project page is: https://github.com/HKUSTGZ-ML4Health-Lab/Med-Scout.

Vision tool-use reinforcement learning (RL) can equip vision--language models with visual operators such as crop-and-zoom and achieves strong performance gains, yet it remains unclear whether these gains are driven by improvements in tool use or evolving intrinsic capabilities. We introduce \textbf{MED} (Measure--Explain--Diagnose), a coarse-to-fine framework that disentangles intrinsic capability changes from tool-induced effects, decomposes the tool-induced performance difference into gain and harm terms, and probes the mechanisms driving their evolution. Across checkpoint-level analyses on two VLMs with different tool priors and six benchmarks, we find that improvements are dominated by intrinsic learning, while tool-use RL mainly reduces tool-induced harm (e.g., fewer call-induced errors and weaker tool schema interference) and yields limited progress in tool-based correction of intrinsic failures.Overall, current vision tool-use RL learns to coexist safely with tools rather than master them.

LLM-based agents are becoming increasingly capable, yet their safety lags behind. This creates a gap between what agents can do and should do. This gap widens as agents engage in multi-turn interactions and employ diverse tools, introducing new risks overlooked by existing benchmarks. To systematically scale safety testing in multi-turn, tool-realistic settings, we propose a principled taxonomy that transforms single-turn harmful tasks into multi-turn attack sequences. Using this taxonomy, we construct MT-AgentRisk (Multi-Turn Agent Risk Benchmark), the first benchmark to evaluate tool-using agent safety under multi-turn, harmful-distribution settings. Our experiments reveal substantial safety degradation: the Attack Success Rate (ASR) increases by 16\% on average across open and closed models in multi-turn settings. To close this gap, we propose ToolShield, a training-free, tool-agnostic, self-exploration defense: when encountering a new tool, the agent autonomously generates test cases, executes them to observe downstream effects, and distills safety experiences for deployment. Experiments show that ToolShield effectively reduces ASR by 30\% on average in multi-turn interactions.

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) are increasingly integrated into systems requiring reliable multi-step inference, yet this growing dependence exposes new vulnerabilities related to computational availability. In particular, LRMs exhibit a tendency to “overthink’’—producing excessively long and redundant reasoning traces—when confronted with incomplete or logically inconsistent inputs. This behavior significantly increases inference latency and energy consumption, forming a potential vector for denial-of-service (DoS) style resource exhaustion. In this work, we investigate this attack surface and propose an automated black-box framework that induces overthinking in LRMs by systematically perturbing the logical structure of input problems. Our method employs a hierarchical genetic algorithm (HGA) operating on structured problem decompositions, and optimizes a composite fitness function designed to maximize both response length and reflective overthinking markers. Across four state-of-the-art reasoning models, the proposed method substantially amplifies output length, achieving up to a 26.1× increase on the MATH benchmark and consistently outperforming benign and manually crafted missing-premise baselines. We further demonstrate strong transferability, showing that adversarial inputs evolved using a small proxy model retain high effectiveness against large commercial LRMs. These findings highlight overthinking as a shared and exploitable vulnerability in modern reasoning systems, underscoring the need for more robust defenses.

Multi-hop Question Answering over Knowledge Graphs faces a critical challenge: traditional retrieve-then-read pipelines break differentiability, preventing the retriever from learning to bridge the semantic gap where intermediate nodes lack lexical overlap with the query. To address this, we propose RSF-GLLM, a framework decoupling differentiable graph reasoning from answer generation. Our Recurrent Soft-Flow (RSF) module employs a GRU-guided query updater to propagate continuous relevance scores, utilizing a dynamic gating mechanism to traverse semantically dissimilar bridge nodes via structural cues. We introduce flow sparsity regularization to theoretically guarantee convergence from soft probabilities to discrete reasoning paths. These paths are extracted and textualized to fine-tune a Large Language Model (LLM), ensuring generation is grounded in factual topology. Experiments on WebQSP and CWQ demonstrate that RSF-GLLM achieves competitive performance with superior inference efficiency compared to LLM based computationally expensive approaches.

Hallucination is a central limitation of large language models (LLMs), and substantial effort has been devoted to understanding and mitigating it. Towards this, Kalai and Vempala (STOC 2024) introduced a probabilistic framework formalizing calibration and hallucination, and showed that, with high probability, calibrated LLMs hallucinate roughly at the rate of the "missing mass", a measure of how incomplete the training data is relative to its source. This raises two fundamental questions: (i) what property of a calibrated LLM makes hallucinations unavoidable? and (ii) can hallucinations be avoided by giving up calibration? We answer these questions by introducing a simpler property we call *innovation* that measures the tendency of a model to produce outputs outside the training data. We show that innovation is implied by the condition for hallucination identified by Kalai and Vempala, and, further, that it is an almost characterization of hallucination: hallucination implies innovation, and conversely, innovation implies hallucination with high probability. We also provide lower bounds on the hallucination rate based on the "innovation rate", and by relating innovation rate back to missing mass, we obtain new hallucination rate lower bounds based on missing mass that extend the results of Kalai and Vempala.

Linear bandits traditionally prioritize regret minimization, often overlooking statistical inference of the underlying parameter as a critical objective. In high-stakes settings such as healthcare, precise parameter estimation is indispensable, as it provides fundamental insights into system mechanisms and ensures robust decision-making under covariate shift. We investigate the tripartite balance between regret, inference, and safety, deriving a fundamental minimax lower bound that characterizes the Pareto-optimal frontier of these competing goals. We then propose SERMiSC, a novel algorithm that achieves the optimal trade-off by matching this lower bound while maintaining a near-constant $\tilde{O}(1)$ safety risk. Empirical results demonstrate that SERMiSC effectively navigates the Pareto frontier and outperforms various baselines, thereby validating our theoretical analysis.

We study a learner who sequentially makes and broadcasts predictions of some underlying adversarially varying state. Many downstream decision makers with different goals and different long-term constraints consume these decisions to choose actions. In this setting we give the first algorithm that obtains simultaneous *dynamic regret* guarantees for all of the decision makers --- where regret for each agent is measured against a potentially changing sequence of actions across rounds of interaction, while also ensuring vanishing constraint violation for each agent. We can promise these dynamic regret bounds not just marginally, but simultaneously on many different intersecting subsequences, which lets decision makers compete with strategies that adapt with both long-term drift and short-term variation. Our results do not require the decision makers to maintain any state, but just to react myopically to our predictions.

Transformer-based Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) combine Transformer performance with SNN energy efficiency through an event-driven self-attention mechanism. However, Spiking Transformers still lag behind their Artificial Neural Network (ANN) counterparts. Most existing studies address this issue through new architectural designs, yet few have explored optimization algorithms tailored to Spiking Transformers. We substantiate the excessive noise problem in Spiking Transformer training by quantitatively defining parameter-update noise and, based on this definition, providing theoretical analysis and experimental validation. To address this problem, we propose AdaS, an adaptive gradient descent method for Spiking Transformers. AdaS reduces excessive noise by adaptively incorporating a gradient update component into adaptive optimization. Instead of simply removing noise, AdaS maintains it at an appropriate level to preserve its generalization benefits, thereby improving the performance of Spiking Transformers. We conduct extensive experiments on various Spiking Transformer architectures and datasets from both computer vision and natural language processing. The results demonstrate that the proposed AdaS consistently enhances performance across different Spiking Transformers, validating its effectiveness and generalizability. This work is among the first systematic studies of optimizer design specifically for Spiking Transformers, offering a practical tool to narrow the accuracy gap with ANNs while preserving the energy advantages of spike-based computation. Code is available at https://github.com/CayleyZ/AdaS.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoEs) have become a central component of many state-of-the-art open-source and proprietary large language models. Despite their widespread adoption, it remains unclear how close existing MoE architectures are to optimal for inference cost, as measured by accuracy per floating-point operation and per parameter. In this work, we revisit MoE design from a hardware-software co-design perspective, grounded in empirical and theoretical considerations. We characterize key performance bottlenecks across diverse deployment regimes, spanning offline high-throughput execution and online, latency-critical inference. Guided by these insights, we introduce **LatentMoE**, a new model architecture resulting from systematic design exploration and optimized for maximal accuracy per unit of compute. Empirical design space exploration at scales of up to 95B parameters and over a 1T-token training horizon, together with supporting theoretical analysis, shows that LatentMoE consistently outperforms standard MoE architectures in terms of accuracy per FLOP and per parameter. Given its strong performance, the LatentMoE architecture has been adopted by the flagship Nemotron-3 Super and Ultra models and scaled to substantially larger regimes, including longer token horizons and larger model sizes, as reported in (NVIDIA et al., 2025, arXiv:2512.20856).

Diffusion models trained on different, non-overlapping subsets of a dataset often produce strikingly similar outputs when given the same noise seed. We trace this consistency to a simple linear effect: the shared Gaussian statistics across splits already predict much of the generated images. To formalize this, we develop a random matrix theory (RMT) framework that quantifies how finite datasets shape the expectation and variance of the learned denoiser and sampling map in the linear setting. For expectations, sampling variability acts as a renormalization of the noise level through a self-consistent relation $\sigma^2\to\kappa(\sigma^2)$, explaining why limited data overshrink low-variance directions and pull samples toward the dataset mean. For fluctuations, our variance formulas reveal three key factors behind cross-split disagreement: \textit{anisotropy} across eigenmodes, \textit{inhomogeneity} across inputs, and overall scaling with dataset size. Extending deterministic-equivalence tools to fractional matrix powers further allows us to analyze entire sampling trajectories. The theory sharply predicts the behavior of linear diffusion models, and we validate its predictions on UNet and DiT architectures in their non-memorization regime, identifying where and how samples deviates across training data split. This provides a principled baseline for reproducibility in diffusion training, linking spectral properties of data to the stability of generative outputs.