ICML 2026 论文列表

Understanding climate dynamics requires going beyond correlations in observational data to uncover their underlying causal process. Latent drivers, such as atmospheric processes, play a critical role in temporal dynamics, while direct causal influences also exist among geographically proximate observed variables. Traditional Causal Representation Learning (CRL) typically focuses on latent factors but overlooks such observable-to-observable causal relations, limiting its applicability to climate analysis. In this paper, we introduce a unified framework that jointly uncovers (i) causal relations among observed variables and (ii) latent driving forces together with their interactions. We establish conditions under which both the hidden dynamic processes and the causal structure among observed variables are simultaneously identifiable from time-series data. Remarkably, our guarantees hold even in the nonparametric setting, leveraging contextual information to recover latent variables and observable relations. Building on these insights, we propose CaDRe (Causal Discovery and Representation learning), a time-series generative model with structural constraints that integrates CRL and causal discovery. Experiments on synthetic datasets validate our theoretical results. On real-world climate datasets, CaDRe not only delivers competitive forecasting accuracy but also recovers visualized causal graphs aligned with domain expertise, thereby offering interpretable insights into climate systems.

Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) was designed to combine the learning capabilities of neural network with the reasoning transparency of fuzzy logic. However, conventional ANFIS architectures suffer from structural complexity, where the product-based inference mechanism causes an exponential explosion of rules in high-dimensional spaces. We herein propose the \textbf{K}olmogorov-\textbf{A}rnold **N**euro-**F**uzzy **I**nference **S**ystem (KANFIS), a compact neuro-symbolic architecture that unifies fuzzy reasoning with additive function decomposition. KANFIS employs an additive aggregation mechanism, under which both model parameters and rule complexity scale linearly with input dimensionality rather than exponentially. Furthermore, KANFIS is compatible with both Type-1 (T1) and Interval Type-2 (IT2) fuzzy logic systems, enabling explicit modeling of uncertainty and ambiguity in fuzzy representations. By using sparse masking mechanisms, KANFIS generates compact and structured rule sets, resulting in an intrinsically interpretable model with clear rule semantics and transparent inference processes. Empirical results demonstrate that KANFIS achieves competitive performance against representative neural and neuro-fuzzy baselines.

We study the correlation clustering problem in the node-arrival data stream model. Unlike previous work, where the stream consists of the graph's edges, we focus on the setting in which the stream contains only the nodes. This model better reflects many real-world scenarios in which the data stream naturally consists of raw objects (e.g., images, tweets), and the similar/dissimilar edges are derived through a similarity function. We present *C*$^4$*Approx*, a streaming algorithm that approximates the cost of correlation clustering using sublinear space in the number of nodes and a constant number of passes. We further complement this result with lower bounds. Experiments on real-world datasets show that by storing only 2\% of the nodes, our algorithm achieves performance comparable to the classic *Pivot* algorithm and the more recent *PrunedPivot* algorithm, even on sparse graphs.

Single-Positive Multi-Label Learning (SPML) studies learning from incomplete supervision, where each instance is annotated with only one positive label despite potentially belonging to multiple categories. While existing methods assume the annotated labels are randomly distributed, real-world annotations are often biased toward the most salient category. We formalize this realistic scenario as Salient Single-Positive Multi-Label Learning (SalSPML). This salient annotation bias poses a challenge to conventional SPML methods, as the missing labels often correspond to less salient and harder-to-recognize categories. Fortunately, we find that salient annotations are typically more representative and informative. Motivated by this insight, we propose Prototype-Guided Rejection for Salient Annotation (PiSA), which constructs reliable class-wise prototypes from salient labels and leverages them to guide embedding learning for non-salient labels recognition. We theoretically demonstrate that SalSPML is harder than Random SPML due to irreducible annotation bias, and under SalSPML, more accurate prototypes facilitate false-negative label detection. Experiments on multiple benchmarks, together with two newly constructed real-world SalSPML datasets, demonstrate that PiSA consistently outperforms existing methods, achieving an average mAP improvement of 3.16\%.

Beyond conditional average treatment effects, treatments may impact the entire outcome distribution in covariate-dependent ways, for example, by altering the variance or tail risks for specific subpopulations. We propose a novel estimand to capture such conditional distributional treatment effects, and develop a doubly robust estimator that is minimax optimal in the local asymptotic sense. Using this, we develop a test for the global homogeneity of conditional potential outcome distributions that accommodates discrepancies beyond the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD), has provably valid type 1 error, and is consistent against fixed alternatives---the first test, to our knowledge, with such guarantees in this setting. We then provide a test that aggregates evidence across a grid of kernel-bandwidth choices. Furthermore, we derive exact closed-form expressions for two natural discrepancies (including the MMD), and provide a computationally efficient, permutation-free algorithm for our test.

Verification of model outputs is rapidly emerging as a key primitive for both training and real-world deployment of large language models (LLMs). In practice, this often involves using imperfect LLM judges and reward models since ground truth acquisition can be time-consuming and expensive. We introduce Fully Unsupervised Score Ensembling (FUSE), a method for improving verification quality by ensembling verifiers without access to ground truth correctness labels. The key idea behind FUSE is to control conditional dependencies between verifiers in a manner that improves the unsupervised performance of a class of spectral algorithms from the ensembling literature. Despite requiring zero ground truth labels, FUSE typically matches or improves upon semi-supervised alternatives in test-time scaling experiments with diverse sets of generator models, verifiers, and benchmarks. In particular, we validate our method on both conventional academic benchmarks such as GPQA Diamond and on frontier, unsaturated benchmarks such as Humanity's Last Exam and IMO Shortlist questions.

Current approaches for scaling inference-time compute in transformers train them to emit explicit chain-of-thought tokens before producing an answer. While these methods are powerful, they are limited because they cannot be applied during pretraining and rely solely on serially-generated, natural-language verbalization. In this work, we propose Thoughtbubbles, a transformer variant that natively performs parallel adaptive computation in latent space by learning to fork or delete residual streams. Thus, tokens requiring more computation can form a "bubble" of cloned residuals in the middle of the network. Crucially, this behavior is learned during pretraining with only language modeling loss. Using half of the training budget, Thoughtbubbles outperforms the perplexity and zero-shot evals of both standard decoder LMs and those using non-adaptive parallel computation approaches. These results hold across model sizes from 150M to 1.9B. Thoughtbubbles achieves competitive GSM8K results using half of the baseline's token budget. The implicit nature of our method enables models to begin learning adaptive computation at pretraining time, paving the way to unified train-time and test-time scaling behaviors.

We study the Probably Approximately Correct (PAC) learnability of partial concept classes in the multiclass setting, where the label space can be infinite. While the Natarajan dimension characterizes learnability for finite label spaces, we show it fails when the label space is unbounded. Instead, we prove that the Daniely-Shalev (DS) dimension provides a characterization of learnability for partial concept classes in the general multiclass setting. Furthermore, our analysis reveals a surprising phenomenon we call the ``Disambiguation Paradox'': disambiguation schemes with simple label space can destroy learnability, while richer labeling may preserves it. We further characterize how the number and structure of disambiguation labels control the induced DS dimension, yielding a trade-off between label complexity and sample complexity.

To cope with uncertain changes of the external world, intelligent systems must continually learn from complex, evolving environments and respond in real time. This ability, collectively known as general continual learning (GCL), encapsulates practical challenges such as online datastreams and blurry task boundaries. Although leveraging pretrained models (PTMs) has greatly advanced conventional continual learning (CL), these methods remain limited in reconciling the diverse and temporally mixed information along a single pass, resulting in sub-optimal GCL performance. Inspired by meta-plasticity and reconstructive memory in neuroscience, we introduce here an innovative approach named **Me**ta **Po**st-Refinement (MePo) for PTMs-based GCL. This approach constructs pseudo task sequences from pretraining data and develops a bi-level meta-learning paradigm to refine the pretrained backbone, which serves as a prolonged pretraining phase but greatly facilitates rapid adaptation of representation learning to downstream GCL tasks. MePo further initializes a meta covariance matrix as the reference geometry of pretrained representation space, enabling GCL to exploit second-order statistics for robust output alignment. MePo serves as a plug-in strategy that achieves significant performance gains across a variety of GCL benchmarks and pretrained checkpoints in a rehearsal-free manner (e.g., 15.10%, 13.36%, and 12.56% on CIFAR-100, ImageNet-R, and CUB-200 under Sup-21/1K). Our source code is available at \href{https://github.com/SunGL001/MePo}{MePo}.

Smoothing a signal based on local neighborhoods is a core operation in machine learning and geometry processing. On well-structured domains such as vector spaces and manifolds, the Laplace operator derived from differential geometry offers a principled approach to smoothing via heat diffusion, with strong theoretical guarantees. However, constructing such Laplacians requires a carefully defined domain structure, which is not always available. Most practitioners thus rely on simple convolution kernels and message-passing layers, which are biased against the boundaries of the domain. We bridge this gap by introducing a broad class of smoothing operators, derived from general similarity or adjacency matrices, and demonstrate that they can be normalized into diffusion-like operators that inherit desirable properties from Laplacians. Our approach relies on a symmetric variant of the Sinkhorn algorithm, which rescales positive smoothing operators to match the structural behavior of heat diffusion. This construction enables Laplacian-like smoothing and processing of irregular data such as point clouds, sparse voxel grids or mixture of Gaussians. We show that the resulting operators not only approximate heat diffusion but also retain spectral information from the Laplacian itself, with applications to shape analysis and matching.

In point clouds, noise directly perturbs point coordinates that encode both spatial location and geometry, making one-to-one correspondence construction more challenging than in images. Existing methods impose statistical mappings across noisy variants via noise or optimal transport, but suffer from correspondence ambiguity. In this work, we propose Self-Induced Mirror-Point Consistency (SIMPC) to learn deterministic correspondences between points and the underlying surface in an unsupervised manner. For each noisy point, SIMPC generates a mirror-point on the opposite side of the underlying surface, guided by geometric priors during the denoising process. By encouraging consistency between the denoising targets of the original point and its mirror counterpart, SIMPC effectively localizes the position of underlying surface. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that SIMPC significantly outperforms state-of-the-art unsupervised methods and surpasses several strong supervised counterparts.

We study the stochastic linear bandits with parameter noise model, in which the reward of action $a$ is $a^\top \theta$ where $\theta$ is sampled i.i.d. We show a regret upper bound of $\widetilde{O} (\sqrt{d T \log(K/\delta) \sigma^2_{\max}})$ for a horizon $T$, general action set of size $K$ of dimension $d$, and where $\sigma^2_{\max}$ is the maximal variance of the reward for any action. We further provide a lower bound of $\widetilde{\Omega} (d \sqrt{T \sigma_{\max}^2})$ which is tight (up to logarithmic factors) whenever $\log K \approx d$. For more specific action sets, $\ell_p$ unit balls with $p \leq 2$ and dual norm $q$, we show that the minimax regret is $\widetilde{\Theta} (\sqrt{dT \sigma_q^2})$, where $\sigma_q^2$ is a variance-dependent quantity that is always at most $4$. This is in contrast to the minimax regret attainable for such sets in the classic additive noise model where the regret is of order $d \sqrt{T}$. Surprisingly, we show that this optimal (up to logarithmic factors) regret bound is attainable using a very simple explore-exploit algorithm.

Real-world data is frequently noisy and ambiguous. In crowdsourcing, for example, human annotators may assign conflicting class labels to the same instances. Partial-label learning (PLL) addresses this challenge by training classifiers when each instance is associated with a set of candidate labels, only one of which is correct. While early PLL methods approximate the true label posterior, they are often computationally intensive. Recent deep learning approaches improve scalability but rely on surrogate losses and heuristic label refinement. We introduce a novel probabilistic framework that directly approximates the posterior distribution over true labels using amortized variational inference. Our method employs neural networks to predict variational parameters from input data, enabling efficient inference. This approach combines the expressiveness of deep learning with the rigor of probabilistic modeling, while remaining architecture-agnostic. Theoretical analysis and extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance in both accuracy and efficiency.

Mixup is a widely used data augmentation technique that constructs new training examples by interpolating between existing ones. While simple and effective in domains like vision and language, applying mixup to graph data is non-trivial and there is no independent empirical evidence for its effectiveness. To fill this gap, we conducted an extensive evaluation study following a unified, established evaluation protocol for graph classification. In contrast to prior results, we found that none of the state-of-the-art mixup methods yielded statistically significant improvements over the no-mixup baseline. To obtain further insights, we analyzed the graphs generated from these mixup methods from an interpolation perspective. We found that (i) many mixup methods failed to interpolate well, (ii) high interpolation error led to performance degradation, and (iii) even good interpolation properties did not lead to performance improvements. Our findings question the efficacy of existing graph mixup methods and highlight the need for a more rigorous exploration and evaluation.

Training modern large language models (LLMs) has become a veritable smorgasbord of algorithms and datasets designed to elicit particular behaviors, making it critical to develop techniques to understand the effects of datasets on the model's properties. This is exacerbated by recent experiments that show datasets can transmit signals that are not directly observable from individual datapoints (Halawi et al., 2024; Betley et al., 2025b;Cloud et al., 2025; Betley et al., 2025a), posing a conceptual challenge for dataset-centric understandings of LLM training and suggesting a missing fundamental account of such phenomena. Towards understanding such effects, inspired by recent work on the linear structure of LLMs (Park et al., 2024; Golowich et al., 2025b), we uncover a general mechanism through which hidden subtexts can arise in generic datasets. We introduce LOGIT-LINEAR SELECTION (LLS), a method that prescribes how to select subsets of a generic preference dataset to elicit a wide range of hidden effects. We apply LLS to discover subsets of real-world datasets so that models trained on them exhibit behaviors ranging from having specific preferences, to responding to prompts in a different language not present in the dataset, to taking on a different persona. Crucially, the effect persists for the selected subset, across models with varying architectures, supporting its generality and universality.

We address the challenge of unsupervised coreset selection for few-shot in-context learning (ICL). The goal is to select a small subset of examples under a fixed annotation budget to yield effective prompts for large language models. Existing geometry-based methods often yield coresets that suffer from a skewed distribution, due to the oversampling of peripheral examples and high local redundancy. To address these issues, we propose a process-aware framework for coreset selection. It jointly optimizes the diversity and representativeness of selected samples via an adaptive submodular objective. It ensures representativeness by selecting samples based on local density awareness, while promoting diversity by imposing a redundancy penalty relative to the evolving selected set. Thus, it performs progress-aware balancing of representativeness and diversity based on the selection context. Extensive experiments on 7 NLP datasets demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms state-of-the-art coreset selection methods in downstream ICL performance. Further analysis validates that our approach better balances diversity and representativeness in the selection process, while retaining the theoretical guarantees of adaptive submodular optimization.

Regression trees are among the most interpretable yet expressive model classes in machine learning. Historically, greedy induction has been the dominant approach for constructing well-performing regression trees. While optimal methods based on dynamic programming and branch-and-bound exist, they are computationally prohibitive for general linear regression trees, despite often achieving substantially better performance than greedy approaches. Recent work has shown that specialized lookahead strategies can dramatically improve runtime while maintaining near-optimal performance, primarily in classification settings. In this work, we develop a novel algorithm for near-optimal, sparse, piecewise linear regression trees that combines a lookahead-style search strategy with efficient rank-one Cholesky updates of the Gram matrix. We demonstrate, both theoretically and empirically, that our method achieves a favorable trade-off between computational efficiency, predictive accuracy, and sparsity, and scales significantly better than the current state of the art.

Large language models enable inexpensive AI-generated annotations, but using them reliably for causal inference remains challenging. Naively pooling AI and human data induces bias, while existing methods such as Prediction-Powered Inference (PPI; Angelopoulos et al., 2023) treat AI outputs as proxies of true labels -- an assumption often violated for generative model outputs in practice. We propose Generative Augmented Inference (GAI), a framework that treats AI outputs as general, potentially high-dimensional informative features for learning human labels rather than as surrogates. GAI flexibly models this relationship using nonparametric methods, enabling consistent estimation and valid inference from combined human and AI data. We establish asymptotic normality and show that, under random labeling, GAI strictly improves asymptotic efficiency over human-data-only estimation whenever AI outputs are informative for true labels. Empirical studies on real-world datasets demonstrate that GAI significantly reduces estimation error and improves confidence interval quality across diverse generative data sources relative to human-only and PPI-based estimation.

Clustering functional data in the presence of phase variation is challenging, as temporal misalignment can obscure intrinsic shape differences and degrade clustering performance. Most existing approaches treat registration and clustering as separate tasks or rely on restrictive parametric assumptions. We present **NeuralFLoC**, a fully unsupervised, end-to-end deep learning framework for joint functional registration and clustering based on Neural ODE-driven diffeomorphic flows and spectral clustering. The proposed model learns smooth, invertible warping functions and cluster-specific templates simultaneously, effectively disentangling phase and amplitude variation. We establish universal approximation guarantees and asymptotic consistency for the proposed framework. Experiments on functional benchmarks show state-of-the-art performance in both registration and clustering, with robustness to missing data, irregular sampling, and noise, while maintaining scalability. Code is available at https://github.com/LastQuater/NeuralFLoC.