ICML 2025 论文列表

Diffusion or score-based models recently showed high performance in image generation. They rely on a forward and a backward stochastic differential equations (SDE). The sampling of a data distribution is achieved by numerically solving the backward SDE or its associated flow ODE. Studying the convergence of these models necessitates to control four different types of error: the initialization error, the truncation error, the discretization error and the score approximation. In this paper, we theoretically study the behavior of diffusion models and their numerical implementation when the data distribution is Gaussian. Our first contribution is to derive the analytical solutions of the backward SDE and the probability flow ODE and to prove that these solutions and their discretizations are all Gaussian processes. Our second contribution is to compute the exact Wasserstein errors between the target and the numerically sampled distributions for any numerical scheme. This allows us to monitor convergence directly in the data space, while experimental works limit their empirical analysis to Inception features. An implementation of our code is available online.

Structured Kernel Interpolation (SKI) scales Gaussian Processes (GPs) by approximating the kernel matrix via inducing point interpolation, achieving linear computational complexity. However, it lacks rigorous theoretical error analysis. This paper bridges this gap by proving error bounds for the SKI Gram matrix and examining their effect on hyperparameter estimation and posterior inference. We further provide a practical guide to selecting the number of inducing points under convolutional cubic interpolation: they should grow as \(n^{d/3}\) for error control. Crucially, we identify two dimensionality regimes for the SKI Gram matrix spectral norm error vs. complexity trade-off. For \(d<3\), \textit{any} error tolerance can achieve linear time for sufficiently large sample size. For \(d\geq 3\), the error must \textit{increase} with sample size for our guarantees to hold. Our analysis provides key insights into SKI's scalability-accuracy trade-offs, establishing precise conditions for achieving linear-time GP inference with controlled error.

State-space formulations allow for Gaussian process (GP) regression with linear-in-time computational cost in spatio-temporal settings, but performance typically suffers in the presence of outliers. In this paper, we adapt and specialise the *robust and conjugate GP (RCGP)* framework of Altamirano et al. (2024) to the spatio-temporal setting. In doing so, we obtain an outlier-robust spatio-temporal GP with a computational cost comparable to classical spatio-temporal GPs. We also overcome the three main drawbacks of RCGPs: their unreliable performance when the prior mean is chosen poorly, their lack of reliable uncertainty quantification, and the need to carefully select a hyperparameter by hand. We study our method extensively in finance and weather forecasting applications, demonstrating that it provides a reliable approach to spatio-temporal modelling in the presence of outliers.

Gaussian Process (GP) Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) extend standard VAEs by replacing the fully factorised Gaussian prior with a GP prior, thereby capturing richer correlations among latent variables. However, performing exact GP inference in large-scale GPVAEs is computationally prohibitive, often forcing existing approaches to rely on restrictive kernel assumptions or large sets of inducing points. In this work, we propose a neighbour-driven approximation strategy that exploits local adjacencies in the latent space to achieve scalable GPVAE inference. By confining computations to the nearest neighbours of each data point, our method preserves essential latent dependencies, allowing more flexible kernel choices and mitigating the need for numerous inducing points. Through extensive experiments on tasks including representation learning, data imputation, and conditional generation, we demonstrate that our approach outperforms other GPVAE variants in both predictive performance and computational efficiency.

Kernel method-based intensity estimators, formulated within reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHSs), and classical kernel intensity estimators (KIEs) have been among the most easy-to-implement and feasible methods for estimating the intensity functions of inhomogeneous Poisson processes. While both approaches share the term "kernel", they are founded on distinct theoretical principles, each with its own strengths and limitations. In this paper, we propose a novel regularized kernel method for Poisson processes based on the least squares loss and show that the resulting intensity estimator involves a specialized variant of the representer theorem: it has the dual coefficient of unity and coincides with classical KIEs. This result provides new theoretical insights into the connection between classical KIEs and kernel method-based intensity estimators, while enabling us to develop an efficient KIE by leveraging advanced techniques from RKHS theory. We refer to the proposed model as the *kernel method-based kernel intensity estimator* (K$^2$IE). Through experiments on synthetic datasets, we show that K$^2$IE achieves comparable predictive performance while significantly surpassing the state-of-the-art kernel method-based estimator in computational efficiency.

Control tasks with safety requirements under high levels of model uncertainty are increasingly common. Machine learning techniques are frequently used to address such tasks, typically by leveraging model error bounds to specify robust constraint-based safety filters. However, if the learned model uncertainty is very high, the corresponding filters are potentially invalid, meaning no control input satisfies the constraints imposed by the safety filter. While most works address this issue by assuming some form of safe backup controller, ours tackles it by collecting additional data on the fly using a Gaussian process bandit-type algorithm. We combine a control barrier function with a learned model to specify a robust certificate that ensures safety if feasible. Whenever infeasibility occurs, we leverage the control barrier function to guide exploration, ensuring the collected data contributes toward the closed-loop system safety. By combining a safety filter with exploration in this manner, our method provably achieves safety in a general setting that does not require any prior model or backup controller, provided that the true system lies in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. To the best of our knowledge, it is the first safe learning-based control method that achieves this.

We consider the problem of novel view synthesis from unposed images in a single feed-forward. Our framework capitalizes on fast speed, scalability, and high-quality 3D reconstruction and view synthesis capabilities of 3DGS, where we further extend it to offer a practical solution that relaxes common assumptions such as dense image views, accurate camera poses, and substantial image overlaps. We achieve this through identifying and addressing unique challenges arising from the use of pixel-aligned 3DGS: misaligned 3D Gaussians across different views induce noisy or sparse gradients that destabilize training and hinder convergence, especially when above assumptions are not met. To mitigate this, we employ pre-trained monocular depth estimation and visual correspondence models to achieve coarse alignments of 3D Gaussians. We then introduce lightweight, learnable modules to refine depth and pose estimates from the coarse alignments, improving the quality of 3D reconstruction and novel view synthesis. Furthermore, the refined estimates are leveraged to estimate geometry confidence scores, which assess the reliability of 3D Gaussian centers and condition the prediction of Gaussian parameters accordingly. Extensive evaluations on large-scale real-world datasets demonstrate that PF3plat sets a new state-of-the-art across all benchmarks, supported by comprehensive ablation studies validating our design choices. We will make the code and weights publicly available.

The stochastic interpolant framework offers a powerful approach for constructing generative models based on ordinary differential equations (ODEs) or stochastic differential equations (SDEs) to transform arbitrary data distributions. However, prior analyses of this framework have primarily focused on the continuous-time setting, assuming perfect solution of the underlying equations. In this work, we present the first discrete-time analysis of the stochastic interpolant framework, where we introduce a innovative discrete-time sampler and derive a finite-time upper bound on its distribution estimation error. Our result provides a novel quantification on how different factors, including the distance between source and target distributions and estimation accuracy, affect the convergence rate and also offers a new principled way to design efficient schedule for convergence acceleration. Finally, numerical experiments are conducted on the discrete-time sampler to corroborate our theoretical findings.

Bayesian optimisation in the latent space of a VAE is a powerful framework for optimisation tasks over complex structured domains, such as the space of valid molecules. However, existing approaches tightly couple the surrogate and generative models, which can lead to suboptimal performance when the latent space is not tailored to specific tasks, which in turn has led to the proposal of increasingly sophisticated algorithms. In this work, we explore a new direction, instead proposing a decoupled approach that trains a generative model and a GP surrogate separately, then combines them via a simple yet principled Bayesian update rule. This separation allows each component to focus on its strengths— structure generation from the VAE and predictive modelling by the GP. We show that our decoupled approach improves our ability to identify high-potential candidates in molecular optimisation problems under constrained evaluation budgets.

Poisson Surface Reconstruction is a widely-used algorithm for reconstructing a surface from an oriented point cloud. To facilitate applications where only partial surface information is available, or scanning is performed sequentially, a recent line of work proposes to incorporate uncertainty into the reconstructed surface via Gaussian process models. The resulting algorithms first perform Gaussian process interpolation, then solve a set of volumetric partial differential equations globally in space, resulting in a computationally expensive two-stage procedure. In this work, we apply recently-developed techniques from geometric Gaussian processes to combine interpolation and surface reconstruction into a single stage, requiring only one linear solve per sample. The resulting reconstructed surface samples can be queried locally in space, without the use of problem-dependent volumetric meshes or grids. These capabilities enable one to (a) perform probabilistic collision detection locally around the region of interest, (b) perform ray casting without evaluating points not on the ray's trajectory, and (c) perform next-view planning on a per-ray basis. They also do not requiring one to approximate kernel matrix inverses with diagonal matrices as part of intermediate computations, unlike prior methods. Results show that our approach provides a cleaner, more-principled, and more-flexible stochastic surface reconstruction pipeline.

A recent line of research has exploited pre-trained generative diffusion models as priors for solving Bayesian inverse problems. We contribute to this research direction by designing a sequential Monte Carlo method for linear-Gaussian inverse problems which builds on ``decoupled diffusion", where the generative process is designed such that larger updates to the sample are possible. The method is asymptotically exact and we demonstrate the effectiveness of our Decoupled Diffusion Sequential Monte Carlo (DDSMC) algorithm on both synthetic as well as protein and image data. Further, we demonstrate how the approach can be extended to discrete data.

Sparse variational Gaussian processes (GPs) construct tractable posterior approximations to GP models. At the core of these methods is the assumption that the true posterior distribution over training function values ${\bf f}$ and inducing variables ${\bf u}$ is approximated by a variational distribution that incorporates the conditional GP prior $p({\bf f} | {\bf u})$ in its factorization. While this assumption is considered as fundamental, we show that for model training we can relax it through the use of a more general variational distribution $q({\bf f} | {\bf u} )$ that depends on $N$ extra parameters, where $N$ is the number of training examples. In GP regression, we can analytically optimize the evidence lower bound over the extra parameters and express a tractable collapsed bound that is tighter than the previous bound. The new bound is also amenable to stochastic optimization and its implementation requires minor modifications to existing sparse GP code. Further, we also describe extensions to non-Gaussian likelihoods. On several datasets we demonstrate that our method can reduce bias when learning the hyperparameters and can lead to better predictive performance.

Effective modelling of large-scale spatio-temporal datasets is essential for many domains, yet existing approaches often impose rigid constraints on the input data, such as requiring them to lie on fixed-resolution grids. With the rise of foundation models, the ability to process diverse, heterogeneous data structures is becoming increasingly important. Neural processes (NPs), particularly transformer neural processes (TNPs), offer a promising framework for such tasks, but struggle to scale to large spatio-temporal datasets due to the lack of an efficient attention mechanism. To address this, we introduce gridded pseudo-token TNPs which employ specialised encoders and decoders to handle unstructured data and utilise a processor comprising gridded pseudo-tokens with efficient attention mechanisms. Furthermore, we develop equivariant gridded TNPs for applications where exact or approximate translation equivariance is a useful inductive bias, improving accuracy and training efficiency. Our method consistently outperforms a range of strong baselines in various synthetic and real-world regression tasks involving large-scale data, while maintaining competitive computational efficiency. Experiments with weather data highlight the potential of gridded TNPs and serve as just one example of a domain where they can have a significant impact.

Applying Gaussian processes (GPs) to very large datasets remains a challenge due to limited computational scalability. Matrix structures, such as the Kronecker product, can accelerate operations significantly, but their application commonly entails approximations or unrealistic assumptions. In particular, the most common path to creating a Kronecker-structured kernel matrix is by evaluating a product kernel on gridded inputs that can be expressed as a Cartesian product. However, this structure is lost if any observation is missing, breaking the Cartesian product structure, which frequently occurs in real-world data such as time series. To address this limitation, we propose leveraging latent Kronecker structure, by expressing the kernel matrix of observed values as the projection of a latent Kronecker product. In combination with iterative linear system solvers and pathwise conditioning, our method facilitates inference of exact GPs while requiring substantially fewer computational resources than standard iterative methods. We demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art sparse and variational GPs on real-world datasets with up to five million examples, including robotics, automated machine learning, and climate applications.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have shown great promise in tasks like node and graph classification, but they often struggle to generalize, particularly to unseen or out-of-distribution (OOD) data. These challenges are exacerbated when training data is limited in size or diversity. To address these issues, we introduce a theoretical framework using Rademacher complexity to compute a regret bound on the generalization error and then characterize the effect of data augmentation. This framework informs the design of GRATIN, an efficient graph data augmentation algorithm leveraging the capability of Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs) to approximate any distribution. Our approach not only outperforms existing augmentation techniques in terms of generalization but also offers improved time complexity, making it highly suitable for real-world applications.

Neural processes (NPs) are a promising paradigm to enable skill transfer learning across tasks with the aid of the distribution of functions. The previous NPs employ the empirical risk minimization principle in optimization. However, the fast adaption ability to different tasks can vary widely, and the worst fast adaptation can be catastrophic in risk-sensitive tasks. To achieve robust neural processes modeling, we consider the problem of training models in a risk-averse manner, which can control the worst fast adaption cases at a certain probabilistic level. By transferring the risk minimization problem to a two-level finite sum minimax optimization problem, we can easily solve it via a double-looped stochastic mirror prox algorithm with a task-aware variance reduction mechanism via sampling samples across all tasks. The mirror prox technique ensures better handling of complex constraint sets and non-Euclidean geometries, making the optimization adaptable to various tasks. The final solution, by aggregating prox points with the adaptive learning rates, enables a stable and high-quality output. The proposed learning strategy can work with various NPs flexibly and achieves less biased approximation with a theoretical guarantee. To illustrate the superiority of the proposed model, we perform experiments on both synthetic and real-world data, and the results demonstrate that our approach not only helps to achieve more accurate performance but also improves model robustness.

Markov processes serve as universal models for many real-world random processes. This paper presents a data-driven approach to learning these models through the spectral decomposition of the infinitesimal generator (IG) of the Markov semigroup. Its unbounded nature complicates traditional methods such as vector-valued regression and Hilbert-Schmidt operator analysis. Existing techniques, including physics-informed kernel regression, are computationally expensive and limited in scope, with no recovery guarantees for transfer operator methods when the time-lag is small. We propose a novel method leveraging the IG's resolvent, characterized by the Laplace transform of transfer operators. This approach is robust to time-lag variations, ensuring accurate eigenvalue learning even for small time-lags. Our statistical analysis applies to a broader class of Markov processes than current methods while reducing computational complexity from quadratic to linear in the state dimension. Finally, we demonstrate our theoretical findings in several experiments.

A tenet of reinforcement learning is that the agent always observes rewards. However, this is not true in many realistic settings, e.g., a human observer may not always be available to provide rewards, sensors may be limited or malfunctioning, or rewards may be inaccessible during deployment. Monitored Markov decision processes (Mon-MDPs) have recently been proposed to model such settings. However, existing Mon-MDP algorithms have several limitations: they do not fully exploit the problem structure, cannot leverage a known monitor, lack worst-case guarantees for "unsolvable" Mon-MDPs without specific initialization, and offer only asymptotic convergence proofs. This paper makes three contributions. First, we introduce a model-based algorithm for Mon-MDPs that addresses these shortcomings. The algorithm employs two instances of model-based interval estimation: one to ensure that observable rewards are reliably captured, and another to learn the minimax-optimal policy. Second, we empirically demonstrate the advantages. We show faster convergence than prior algorithms in more than four dozen benchmarks, and even more dramatic improvements when the monitoring process is known. Third, we present the first finite-sample bound on performance. We show convergence to a minimax-optimal policy even when some rewards are never observable.

Motivated by applications in trajectory inference and particle tracking, we introduce **Smooth Schrödinger Bridges**. Our proposal generalizes prior work by allowing the reference process in the multi-marginal Schrödinger Bridge problem to be a smooth Gaussian process, leading to more regular and interpretable trajectories in applications. Though naïvely smoothing the reference process leads to a computationally intractable problem, we identify a class of processes (including the Matérn processes) for which the resulting Smooth Schrödinger Bridge problem can be *lifted* to a simpler problem on phase space, which can be solved in polynomial time. We develop a practical approximation of this algorithm that outperforms existing methods on numerous simulated and real single-cell RNAseq datasets.