ICML 2025 论文列表

International Conference on Machine Learning

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3,342篇论文

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主题: 多模态大模型 · 390 篇论文 · 重置筛选

SparseVLM: Visual Token Sparsification for Efficient Vision-Language Model Inference

Yuan Zhang, Chun-Kai Fan, Junpeng Ma, Wenzhao Zheng, Tao Huang, Kuan Cheng, Denis A Gudovskiy, Tomoyuki Okuno, Yohei Nakata, Kurt Keutzer, Shanghang Zhang

展开摘要

In vision-language models (VLMs), visual tokens usually consume a significant amount of computational overhead, despite their sparser information density compared to text tokens. To address this, most existing methods learn a network to prune redundant visual tokens and require additional training data. Differently, we propose an efficient training-free token optimization mechanism dubbed **SparseVLM** without extra parameters or fine-tuning costs. Concretely, given that visual tokens complement text tokens in VLMs for linguistic reasoning, we select visual-relevant text tokens to rate the significance of vision tokens within the self-attention matrix extracted from the VLMs. Then we progressively prune irrelevant tokens. To maximize sparsity while retaining essential information, we introduce a rank-based strategy to adaptively determine the sparsification ratio for each layer, alongside a token recycling method that compresses pruned tokens into more compact representations. Experimental results show that our SparseVLM improves the efficiency of various VLMs across a range of image and video understanding tasks. In particular, when LLaVA is equipped with SparseVLM, it achieves a 54\% reduction in FLOPs, lowers CUDA time by 37\%, and maintains an accuracy rate of 97\%. Our code is available at https://github.com/Gumpest/SparseVLMs.

Poster
FLAM: Frame-Wise Language-Audio Modeling

Yusong Wu, Christos Tsirigotis, Ke Chen, Cheng-Zhi Anna Huang, Aaron Courville, Oriol Nieto, Prem Seetharaman, Justin Salamon

展开摘要

Recent multi-modal audio-language models (ALMs) excel at text-audio retrieval but struggle with frame-wise audio understanding. Prior works use temporal-aware labels or unsupervised training to improve frame-wise capabilities, but they still lack fine-grained labeling capability to pinpoint when an event occurs. While traditional sound event detection models can precisely localize events, they are limited to pre-defined categories, making them ineffective for real-world scenarios with out-of-distribution events. In this work, we introduce FLAM, an open-vocabulary contrastive audio-language model capable of localizing specific sound events. FLAM employs a memory-efficient and calibrated frame-wise objective with logit adjustment to address spurious correlations, such as event dependencies and label imbalances during training. To enable frame-wise supervision, we leverage a large-scale dataset with diverse audio events, LLM-generated captions and simulation. Experimental results and case studies demonstrate that FLAM significantly improves the open-vocabulary localization capability while maintaining strong performance in global retrieval and downstream tasks.

Poster
Tool Unlearning for Tool-Augmented LLMs

Jiali Cheng, Hadi Amiri

展开摘要

Tool-augmented large language models (LLMs) may need to forget learned tools due to security concerns, privacy restrictions, or deprecated tools. However, ``tool unlearning'' has not been investigated in machine unlearning literature. We introduce this novel task, which requires addressing distinct challenges compared to traditional unlearning: knowledge removal rather than forgetting individual samples, the high cost of optimizing LLMs, and the need for principled evaluation metrics. To bridge these gaps, we propose ToolDelete , the first approach for unlearning tools from tool-augmented LLMs which implements three properties for effective tool unlearning, and a new membership inference attack (MIA) model for evaluation. Experiments on three tool learning datasets and tool-augmented LLMs show that ToolDelete effectively unlearns both randomly selected and category-specific tools, while preserving the LLM's knowledge on non-deleted tools and maintaining performance on general tasks.

Poster
PDE-Controller: LLMs for Autoformalization and Reasoning of PDEs

Mauricio Soroco, Jialin Song, Mengzhou Xia, Kye Emond, Weiran Sun, Wuyang Chen

展开摘要

We present PDE-Controller, a framework that enables large language models (LLMs) to control systems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs). Traditional LLMs have excelled in commonsense reasoning but fall short in rigorous logical reasoning. While recent AI-for-math has made strides in pure mathematics, areas of applied mathematics, particularly PDEs, remain underexplored despite their significant real-world applications. Our approach enables LLMs to transform informal natural language instructions into formal specifications, and then execute reasoning and planning steps to improve the utility of PDE control. We build a holistic solution comprising datasets (both human-written cases and 2 million synthetic samples), math-reasoning models, and novel evaluation metrics, all of which require significant effort. Our PDE-Controller significantly outperforms the latest open-source and GPT models in reasoning, autoformalization, and program synthesis, achieving up to a 62% improvement in utility gain for PDE control. By bridging the gap between language generation and PDE systems, we demonstrate the potential of LLMs in addressing complex scientific and engineering challenges. We promise to release all data, model checkpoints, and code upon acceptance.

Poster
SAFER: A Calibrated Risk-Aware Multimodal Recommendation Model for Dynamic Treatment Regimes

Yishan Shen, Yuyang Ye, Hui Xiong, Yong Chen

展开摘要

Dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs) are critical to precision medicine, optimizing long-term outcomes through personalized, real-time decision-making in evolving clinical contexts, but require careful supervision for unsafe treatment risks. Existing efforts rely primarily on clinician-prescribed gold standards despite the absence of a known optimal strategy, and predominantly using structured EHR data without extracting valuable insights from clinical notes, limiting their reliability for treatment recommendations. In this work, we introduce SAFER, a calibrated risk-aware tabular-language recommendation framework for DTR that integrates both structured EHR and clinical notes, enabling them to learn from each other, and addresses inherent label uncertainty by assuming ambiguous optimal treatment solution for deceased patients. Moreover, SAFER employs conformal prediction to provide statistical guarantees, ensuring safe treatment recommendations while filtering out uncertain predictions. Experiments on two publicly available sepsis datasets demonstrate that SAFER outperforms state-of-the-art baselines across multiple recommendation metrics and counterfactual mortality rate, while offering robust formal assurances. These findings underscore SAFER’s potential as a trustworthy and theoretically grounded solution for high-stakes DTR applications.

Poster
Decomposition of Graphic Design with Unified Multimodal Model

Hui Nie, Zhao Zhang, Yutao Cheng, Maoke Yang, Gonglei Shi, Qingsong Xie, Jie Shao, Xinglong Wu

展开摘要

We propose Layer Decomposition of Graphic Designs (LDGD), a novel vision task that converts composite graphic design (e.g., posters) into structured representations comprising ordered RGB-A layers and metadata. By transforming visual content into structured data, LDGD facilitates precise image editing and offers significant advantages for digital content creation, management, and reuse. This task presents two core challenges: (1) predicting the attribute information (metadata) of each layer, and (2) recovering the occluded regions within overlapping layers to enable high-fidelity image reconstruction. To address this, we present the Decompose Layer Model (DeaM), a large unified multimodal model that integrates a conjoined visual encoder, a language model, and a condition-aware RGB-A decoder. DeaM adopts a two-stage processing pipeline: first generates layer-specific metadata containing information such as spatial coordinates and quantized encodings, and then reconstructs pixel-accurate layer images using a condition-aware RGB-A decoder. Beyond full decomposition, the model supports interactive decomposition via textual or point-based prompts. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. The code is accessed at https://github.com/witnessai/DeaM.

Poster
The Hidden Life of Tokens: Reducing Hallucination of Large Vision-Language Models Via Visual Information Steering

Zhuowei Li, Haizhou Shi, Yunhe Gao, Di Liu, Zhenting Wang, Yuxiao Chen, Ting Liu, Long Zhao, Hao Wang, Dimitris N. Metaxas

展开摘要

Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) can reason effectively over both textual and visual inputs, but they tend to hallucinate syntactically coherent yet visually ungrounded contents. In this paper, we investigate the internal dynamics of hallucination by examining the tokens logits rankings throughout the generation process, revealing three key patterns in how LVLMs process information: (1) *gradual visual information loss* -- visually grounded tokens gradually become less favored throughout generation, and (2) *early excitation* -- semantically meaningful tokens achieve peak activation in the layers earlier than the final layer. (3) *hidden genuine information* -- visually grounded tokens though not being eventually decided still retain relatively high rankings at inference. Based on these insights, we propose **VISTA** (**V**isual **I**nformation **S**teering with **T**oken-logit **A**ugmentation), a training-free inference-time intervention framework that reduces hallucination while promoting genuine information. VISTA works by combining two complementary approaches: reinforcing visual information in activation space and leveraging early layer activations to promote semantically meaningful decoding. Compared to existing methods, VISTA requires no external supervision and is applicable to various decoding strategies. Extensive experiments show that VISTA on average reduces hallucination by about 40% on evaluated open-ended generation task, and it consistently outperforms existing methods on four benchmarks across four architectures under three decoding strategies. Code is available at https://github.com/LzVv123456/VISTA.

Poster
Vision-Language Models Create Cross-Modal Task Representations

Grace Luo, Trevor Darrell, Amir Bar

展开摘要

Autoregressive vision-language models (VLMs) can handle many tasks within a single model, yet the representations that enable this capability remain opaque. We find that VLMs align conceptually equivalent inputs into a shared task vector, which is invariant to modality (text, image) and format (examples, instruction), and may simplify VLM processing. We measure this alignment via cross-modal transfer--the ability of a task vector derived in one modality to trigger the correct generation in another--on a range of tasks and model architectures. Although the task vector is highly compressed, we find that this single vector outperforms prompting the model with the full task information, unique to this cross-modal case. Furthermore, we show that task vectors can be transferred from a base language model to its fine-tuned vision-language counterpart, and that they can be derived solely from instructions without the need for examples. Taken together, our findings shed light on how VLMs internally process task information, and how they map different modalities into common semantic representations.

Poster
Imagine While Reasoning in Space: Multimodal Visualization-of-Thought

Chengzu Li, Wenshan Wu, Huanyu Zhang, Yan Xia, Shaoguang Mao, Li Dong, Ivan Vulić, Furu Wei

展开摘要

Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting has proven highly effective for enhancing complex reasoning in Large Language Models (LLMs) and Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs). Yet, it struggles in complex spatial reasoning tasks. Nonetheless, human cognition extends beyond language alone, enabling the remarkable capability to think in both words and images. Inspired by this mechanism, we propose a new reasoning paradigm, Multimodal Visualization-of-Thought (MVoT). It enables visual thinking in MLLMs by generating image visualizations of their reasoning traces. To ensure high-quality visualization, we introduce token discrepancy loss into autoregressive MLLMs. This innovation significantly improves both visual coherence and fidelity. We validate this approach through several dynamic spatial reasoning tasks. Experimental results reveal that MVoT demonstrates competitive performance across tasks. Moreover, it exhibits robust and reliable improvements in the most challenging scenarios where CoT fails. Ultimately, MVoT establishes new possibilities for complex reasoning tasks where visual thinking can effectively complement verbal reasoning.

Poster
Stochastic Layer-Wise Shuffle for Improving Vision Mamba Training

Zizheng Huang, Haoxing Chen, Jiaqi Li, jun lan, Huijia Zhu, Weiqiang Wang, Limin Wang

展开摘要

Recent Vision Mamba (Vim) models exhibit nearly linear complexity in sequence length, making them highly attractive for processing visual data. However, the training methodologies and their potential are still not sufficiently explored. In this paper, we investigate strategies for Vim and propose Stochastic Layer-Wise Shuffle (SLWS), a novel regularization method that can effectively improve the Vim training. Without architectural modifications, this approach enables the non-hierarchical Vim to get leading performance on ImageNet-1K compared with the similar type counterparts. Our method operates through four simple steps per layer: probability allocation to assign layer-dependent shuffle rates, operation sampling via Bernoulli trials, sequence shuffling of input tokens, and order restoration of outputs. SLWS distinguishes itself through three principles: \textit{(1) Plug-and-play:} No architectural modifications are needed, and it is deactivated during inference. \textit{(2) Simple but effective:} The four-step process introduces only random permutations and negligible overhead. \textit{(3) Intuitive design:} Shuffling probabilities grow linearly with layer depth, aligning with the hierarchical semantic abstraction in vision models. Our work underscores the importance of tailored training strategies for Vim models and provides a helpful way to explore their scalability. Code and models are available at https://github.com/huangzizheng01/ShuffleMamba

Poster
Cross-Modal Alignment via Variational Copula Modelling

Feng Wu, Tsai Hor Chan, Fuying Wang, Guosheng Yin, Lequan Yu

展开摘要

Various data modalities are common in real-world applications. (e.g., EHR, medical images and clinical notes in healthcare). Thus, it is essential to develop multimodal learning methods to aggregate information from multiple modalities. The main challenge is appropriately aligning and fusing the representations of different modalities into a joint distribution. Existing methods mainly rely on concatenation or the Kronecker product, oversimplifying interactions structure between modalities and indicating a need to model more complex interactions. Additionally, the joint distribution of latent representations with higher-order interactions is underexplored. Copula is a powerful statistical structure in modelling the interactions between variables, as it bridges the joint distribution and marginal distributions of multiple variables. In this paper, we propose a novel copula modelling-driven multimodal learning framework, which focuses on learning the joint distribution of various modalities to capture the complex interaction among them. The key idea is interpreting the copula model as a tool to align the marginal distributions of the modalities efficiently. By assuming a Gaussian mixture distribution for each modality and a copula model on the joint distribution, our model can also generate accurate representations for missing modalities. Extensive experiments on public MIMIC datasets demonstrate the superior performance of our model over other competitors. The code is anonymously available at https://github.com/HKU-MedAI/CMCM.

Poster
PoisonedEye: Knowledge Poisoning Attack on Retrieval-Augmented Generation based Large Vision-Language Models

Chenyang Zhang, Xiaoyu Zhang, Jian Lou, Kai WU, Zilong Wang, Xiaofeng Chen

展开摘要

Vision-Language Retrieval-Augmented Generation (VLRAG) systems have been widely applied to Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) to enhance their generation ability. However, the reliance on external multimodal knowledge databases renders VLRAG systems vulnerable to malicious poisoning attacks. In this paper, we introduce PoisonedEye, the first knowledge poisoning attack designed for VLRAG systems. Our attack successfully manipulates the response of the VLRAG system for the target query by injecting only one poison sample into the knowledge database. To construct the poison sample, we follow two key properties for the retrieval and generation process, and identify the solution by satisfying these properties. Besides, we also introduce a class query targeted poisoning attack, a more generalized strategy that extends the poisoning effect to an entire class of target queries. Extensive experiments on multiple query datasets, retrievers, and LVLMs demonstrate that our attack is highly effective in compromising VLRAG systems.

Poster
Efficient Multi-modal Long Context Learning for Training-free Adaptation

Zehong Ma, Shiliang Zhang, Longhui Wei, Qi Tian

展开摘要

Traditional approaches to adapting multi-modal large language models (MLLMs) to new tasks have relied heavily on fine-tuning. This paper introduces Efficient Multi-Modal Long Context Learning (EMLoC), a novel training-free alternative that embeds demonstration examples directly into the model input. EMLoC offers a more efficient, flexible, and scalable solution for task adaptation. Because extremely lengthy inputs introduce prohibitive computational and memory overhead, EMLoC contributes a chunk-wise compression mechanism combined with layer-wise adaptive pruning. It condenses long-context multimodal inputs into compact, task-specific memory representations. By adaptively pruning tokens at each layer under a Jensen-Shannon divergence constraint, our method achieves a dramatic reduction in inference complexity without sacrificing performance. This approach is the first to seamlessly integrate compression and pruning techniques for multi-modal long-context learning, offering a scalable and efficient solution for real-world applications. Extensive experiments on diverse vision-language benchmarks demonstrate that EMLoC achieves performance on par with or superior to naive long-context approaches. Our results highlight the potential of EMLoC as a groundbreaking framework for efficient and flexible adaptation of multi-modal models in resource-constrained environments. Codes are publicly available at https://github.com/Zehong-Ma/EMLoC.

Poster
Targeted Unlearning with Single Layer Unlearning Gradient

Zikui Cai, Yaoteng Tan, M. Salman Asif

展开摘要

Machine unlearning methods aim to remove sensitive or unwanted content from trained models, but typically demand extensive model updates at significant computational cost while potentially degrading model performance on both related and unrelated tasks. We propose Single Layer Unlearning Gradient (SLUG) as an efficient method to unlearn targeted information by updating a single critical layer using a one-time gradient computation. SLUG uses layer importance and gradient alignment metrics to identify the optimal layer for targeted information removal while preserving the model utility. We demonstrate the effectiveness of SLUG for CLIP, Stable Diffusion, and vision-language models (VLMs) in removing concrete (e.g., identities and objects) and abstract concepts (e.g., artistic styles). On the UnlearnCanvas benchmark, SLUG achieves comparable unlearning performance to existing methods while requiring significantly less computational resources. Our proposed approach offers a practical solution for targeted unlearning that is computationally efficient and precise. Our code is available at https://github.com/CSIPlab/SLUG

Poster
Peripheral Memory for LLMs: Integration of Sequential Memory Banks with Adaptive Querying

Songlin Zhai, Yuan Meng, Yongrui Chen, Yiwei Wang, Guilin Qi

展开摘要

Large Language Models (LLMs) have revolutionized various natural language processing tasks with their remarkable capabilities. However, challenges persist in effectively integrating new knowledge into LLMs without compromising their performance, particularly in the Large Language Models (LLMs) have revolutionized various natural language processing tasks with their remarkable capabilities. However, a challenge persists in effectively processing new information, particularly in the area of long-term knowledge updates without compromising model performance. To address this challenge, this paper introduces a novel memory augmentation framework that conceptualizes memory as a peripheral component (akin to physical RAM), with the LLM serving as the information processor (analogous to a CPU). Drawing inspiration from RAM architecture, we design memory as a sequence of memory banks, each modeled using Kolmogorov-Arnold Network (KAN) to ensure smooth state transitions. Memory read and write operations are dynamically controlled by query signals derived from the LLMs' internal states, closely mimicking the interaction between a CPU and RAM. Furthermore, a dedicated memory bank is used to generate a mask value that indicates the relevance of the retrieved data, inspired by the sign bit in binary coding schemes. The retrieved memory feature is then integrated as a prefix to enhance the model prediction. Extensive experiments on knowledge-based model editing validate the effectiveness and efficiency of our peripheral memory.

Poster
Cannot See the Forest for the Trees: Invoking Heuristics and Biases to Elicit Irrational Choices of LLMs

Haoming Yang, Ke Ma, Xiaojun Jia, Yingfei Sun, Qianqian Xu, Qingming Huang

展开摘要

Despite the remarkable performance of Large Language Models (\textbf{LLMs}), they remain vulnerable to jailbreak attacks, which can compromise their safety mechanisms. Existing studies often rely on brute-force optimization or manual design, failing to uncover potential risks in real-world scenarios. To address this, we propose a novel jailbreak attack framework, \textbf{ICRT}, inspired by heuristics and biases in human cognition. Leveraging the \textit{simplicity effect}, we employ \textit{cognitive decomposition} to reduce the complexity of malicious prompts. Simultaneously, \textit{relevance bias} is utilized to reorganize prompts, enhancing semantic alignment and inducing harmful outputs effectively. Furthermore, we introduce a ranking-based harmfulness evaluation metric that surpasses the traditional binary success-or-failure paradigm by employing ranking aggregation methods such as Elo, HodgeRank, and Rank Centrality to comprehensively quantify the harmfulness of generated content. Experimental results show that our approach consistently bypasses mainstream \textbf{LLMs}' safety mechanisms and generates high-risk content.

Poster
Cradle: Empowering Foundation Agents towards General Computer Control

Weihao Tan, Wentao Zhang, Xinrun Xu, Haochong Xia, Ziluo Ding, Boyu Li, Bohan Zhou, Junpeng Yue, Jiechuan Jiang, Yewen Li, Ruyi An, Molei Qin, Chuqiao Zong, Longtao Zheng, Yujie Wu, Xiaoqiang Chai, Yifei Bi, Tianbao Xie, Pengjie Gu, Xiyun Li, Ceyao Zhang, Long Tian, Chaojie Wang, Xinrun Wang, Börje F. Karlsson, Bo An, Shuicheng YAN, Zongqing Lu

展开摘要

Despite their success in specific scenarios, existing foundation agents still struggle to generalize across various virtual scenarios, mainly due to the dramatically different encapsulations of environments with manually designed observation and action spaces. To handle this issue, we propose the General Computer Control (GCC) setting to restrict foundation agents to interact with software through the most unified and standardized interface, i.e., using screenshots as input and keyboard and mouse actions as output. We introduce Cradle, a modular and flexible LMM-powered framework, as a preliminary attempt towards GCC. Enhanced by six key modules, Information Gathering, Self-Reflection, Task Inference, Skill Curation, Action Planning, and Memory, Cradle is able to understand input screenshots and output executable code for low-level keyboard and mouse control after high-level planning and information retrieval, so that Cradle can interact with any software and complete long-horizon complex tasks without relying on any built-in APIs. Experimental results show that Cradle exhibits remarkable generalizability and impressive performance across four previously unexplored commercial video games (Red Dead Redemption 2, Cities:Skylines, Stardew Valley and Dealer's Life 2), five software applications (Chrome, Outlook, Feishu, Meitu and CapCut), and a comprehensive benchmark, OSWorld. With a unified interface to interact with any software, Cradle greatly extends the reach of foundation agents thus paving the way for generalist agents.

Poster
EduLLM: Leveraging Large Language Models and Framelet-Based Signed Hypergraph Neural Networks for Student Performance Prediction

Ming Li, Yukang Cheng, Lu Bai, Feilong Cao, Ke Lv, Jiye Liang, Pietro Lio

展开摘要

The growing demand for personalized learning underscores the importance of accurately predicting students' future performance to support tailored education and optimize instructional strategies. Traditional approaches predominantly focus on temporal modeling using historical response records and learning trajectories. While effective, these methods often fall short in capturing the intricate interactions between students and learning content, as well as the subtle semantics of these interactions. To address these gaps, we present EduLLM, the first framework to leverage large language models in combination with hypergraph learning for student performance prediction. The framework incorporates FraS-HNN ($\underline{\mbox{Fra}}$melet-based $\underline{\mbox{S}}$igned $\underline{\mbox{H}}$ypergraph $\underline{\mbox{N}}$eural $\underline{\mbox{N}}$etworks), a novel spectral-based model for signed hypergraph learning, designed to model interactions between students and multiple-choice questions. In this setup, students and questions are represented as nodes, while response records are encoded as positive and negative signed hyperedges, effectively capturing both structural and semantic intricacies of personalized learning behaviors. FraS-HNN employs framelet-based low-pass and high-pass filters to extract multi-frequency features. EduLLM integrates fine-grained semantic features derived from LLMs, synergizing with signed hypergraph representations to enhance prediction accuracy. Extensive experiments conducted on multiple educational datasets demonstrate that EduLLM significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, validating the novel integration of LLMs with FraS-HNN for signed hypergraph learning.

Poster
rStar-Math: Small LLMs Can Master Math Reasoning with Self-Evolved Deep Thinking

Xinyu Guan, Li Lyna Zhang, Yifei Liu, Ning Shang, Youran Sun, Yi Zhu, Fan Yang, Mao Yang

展开摘要

We present rStar-Math to demonstrate that small language models (SLMs) can rival or even surpass the math reasoning capability of OpenAI o1, without distillation from superior models. rStar-Math achieves this by exercising ``deep thinking'' through Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS), where a math policy SLM performs test-time search guided by an SLM-based process reward model. rStar-Math introduces three innovations to tackle the challenges in training the two SLMs: (1) a novel code-augmented CoT data synthesis method, which performs extensive MCTS rollouts to generate step-by-step verified reasoning trajectories used to train the policy SLM; (2) a novel process reward model training method that avoids na\"ive step-level score annotation, yielding a more effective process preference model (PPM); (3) a self-evolution recipe in which the policy SLM and PPM are built from scratch and iteratively evolved to improve reasoning capabilities. Through 4 rounds of self-evolution with millions of synthesized solutions for 747k math problems, rStar-Math boosts SLMs' math reasoning to state-of-the-art levels. On MATH benchmark, it improves Qwen2.5-Math-7B from 58.8% to 90.0%, surpassing o1-preview by +4.5%. On the USA Math Olympiad (AIME), rStar-Math solves an average of 53.3% (8/15) of problems, ranking among the top 20% of the brightest high school math students. Code and data are available at https://github.com/microsoft/rStar.

Oral
A Simple Model of Inference Scaling Laws

Noam Itzhak Levi

展开摘要

Neural scaling laws have garnered significant interest due to their ability to predict model performance as a function of increasing parameters, data, and compute. In this work, we propose a simple statistical ansatz based on memorization to study scaling laws in the context of inference. Specifically, how performance improves with multiple inference attempts. We explore the coverage, or pass@k metric, which measures the chance of success over repeated attempts and provide a motivation for the observed functional form of the inference scaling behavior of the coverage in large language models (LLMs) on reasoning tasks. We then define an "inference loss", which exhibits a power law decay as the number of trials increases, and connect this result with prompting costs. We further test the universality of our construction by conducting experiments on a simple generative model, and find that our predictions are in agreement with the empirical coverage curves in a controlled setting. Our simple framework sets the ground for incorporating inference scaling with other known scaling laws.

Poster