ICLR 2026 论文列表

Explaining online time series monitoring models is crucial across sensitive domains such as healthcare and finance, where temporal and contextual prediction dynamics underpin critical decisions. While recent XAI methods have improved the explainability of time series models, they mostly analyze each time step independently, overlooking temporal dependencies. This results in further challenges: explaining prediction changes is non-trivial, methods fail to leverage online dynamics, and evaluation remains difficult. To address these challenges, we propose Delta-XAI, which adapts 14 existing XAI methods through a wrapper function and introduces a principled evaluation suite for the online setting, assessing diverse aspects, such as faithfulness, sufficiency, and coherence. Experiments reveal that classical gradient-based methods, such as Integrated Gradients (IG), can outperform recent approaches when adapted for temporal analysis. Building on this, we propose Shifted Window Integrated Gradients (SWING), which incorporates past observations in the integration path to systematically capture temporal dependencies and mitigate out-of-distribution effects. Extensive experiments consistently demonstrate the effectiveness of SWING across diverse settings with respect to diverse metrics. Our code is publicly available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/Delta-XAI.

Large Language Models (LLMs) increasingly use persistent memory from past interactions to enhance personalization and task performance. However, this memory creates critical risks when sensitive information is revealed in inappropriate contexts. We present CIMemories, a benchmark for evaluating whether LLMs appropriately control information flow from memory based on task context. CIMemories uses synthetic user profiles with 100+ attributes per user, paired with various task contexts where each attribute may be essential for some tasks but inappropriate for others. For example, mental health details are necessary for booking therapy but inappropriate when requesting time off from work. This design enables two forms of compositionality: (1) flexible memory composition by varying which attributes are necessary versus inappropriate across different settings, and (2) multi-task composition per user, measuring cumulative information disclosure across sessions. Our evaluation reveals frontier models exhibit between 14%-69% attribute-level violations (leaking inappropriate information), and that higher task completeness (sharing necessary information) is accompanied by increased violations, highlighting critical gaps in integrity-aware memory systems.

Despite recent advances in state space models (SSMs) such as Mamba across various sequence domains, research on their standalone capacity for time series classification (TSC) has remained limited. We propose MambaSL, a framework that minimally redesigns the selective SSM and projection layers of a single-layer Mamba, guided by four TSC-specific hypotheses. To address benchmarking limitations—restricted configurations, partial University of East Anglia (UEA) dataset coverage, and insufficiently reproducible setups—we re-evaluate 20 strong baselines across all 30 UEA datasets under a unified protocol. Our results show that MambaSL achieves state-of-the-art performance on the UEA benchmark among 21 models, with statistically significant average improvements over baselines while ensuring reproducibility via public checkpoints.

Forecasting how 3D medical scans evolve along time is important for disease progression, treatment planning, and developmental assessment. Yet existing models either rely on a single prior scan, fixed grid times, or target global labels, which limits voxel-level forecasting under irregular sampling. We present CRONOS, a unified framework for many-to-one prediction from multiple past scans that supports both discrete (grid-based) and continuous (real-valued) timestamps in one model, to the best of our knowledge the first to achieve continuous sequence-to-image forecasting for 3D medical data. CRONOS learns a spatio-temporal velocity field that transports context volumes toward a target volume at an arbitrary time, while operating directly in 3D voxel space. Across three public datasets spanning Cine-MRI, perfusion CT, and longitudinal MRI, CRONOS outperforms other baselines, while remaining computationally competitive. We will release code and evaluation protocols to enable reproducible, multi-dataset benchmarking of multi-context, continuous-time forecasting.

Pre-trained models exhibit strong generalization to various downstream tasks. However, given the numerous models available in the model hub, identifying the most suitable one by individually fine-tuning is time-consuming. In this paper, we propose \textbf{SwiftTS}, a swift selection framework for time series pre-trained models. To avoid expensive forward propagation through all candidates, SwiftTS adopts a learning-guided approach that leverages historical dataset-model performance pairs across diverse horizons to predict model performance on unseen datasets. It employs a lightweight dual-encoder architecture that embeds time series and candidate models with rich characteristics, computing patchwise compatibility scores between data and model embeddings for efficient selection. To further enhance the generalization across datasets and horizons, we introduce a horizon-adaptive expert composition module that dynamically adjusts expert weights, and the transferable cross-task learning with cross-dataset and cross-horizon task sampling to enhance out-of-distribution (OOD) robustness. Extensive experiments on 14 downstream datasets and 8 pre-trained models demonstrate that SwiftTS achieves state-of-the-art performance in time series pre-trained model selection. The code and datasets are available at \href{}{https://anonymous.4open.science/r/SwiftTS-395C}.

Irregular multivariate time series (IMTS) are prevalent in critical domains like healthcare and finance, where accurate forecasting is vital for proactive decision-making. However, the asynchronous sampling and irregular intervals inherent to IMTS pose two core challenges for existing methods: (1) how to accurately represent the raw information of irregular time series without introducing data distortion, and (2) how to effectively capture the complex dynamic dependencies between observation points. To address these challenges, we propose the Adaptive Spatio-Temporal Graph Interaction (ASTGI) framework. Specifically, the framework first employs a Spatio-Temporal Point Representation module to encode each discrete observation as a point within a learnable spatio-temporal embedding space. Second, a Neighborhood-Adaptive Graph Construction module adaptively builds a causal graph for each point in the embedding space via nearest neighbor search. Subsequently, a Spatio-Temporal Dynamic Propagation module iteratively updates information on these adaptive causal graphs by generating messages and computing interaction weights based on the relative spatio-temporal positions between points. Finally, a Query Point-based Prediction module generates the final forecast by aggregating neighborhood information for a new query point and performing regression. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate that ASTGI outperforms various state-of-the-art methods.

Conformal prediction offers a powerful framework for building distribution-free prediction intervals for exchangeable data. Existing methods that extend conformal prediction to sequential data rely on fitting a relatively complex model to capture temporal dependencies. However, these methods can fail if the sample size is small and often require expensive retraining when the underlying data distribution changes. To overcome these limitations, we propose Reservoir Conformal Prediction (ResCP), a novel training-free conformal prediction method for time series. Our approach leverages the efficiency and representation learning capabilities of reservoir computing to dynamically reweight conformity scores. In particular, we compute similarity scores among reservoir states and use them to adaptively reweight the observed residuals at each step. With this approach, ResCP enables us to account for local temporal dynamics when modeling the error distribution without compromising computational scalability. We prove that, under reasonable assumptions, ResCP achieves asymptotic conditional coverage, and we empirically demonstrate its effectiveness across diverse forecasting tasks.

Facts change over time, making it essential for Large Language Models (LLMs) to handle time-sensitive factual knowledge accurately and reliably. Although factual Time-Sensitive Question-Answering (TSQA) tasks have been widely developed, existing benchmarks often face manual bottlenecks that limit scalable and comprehensive TSQA evaluation. To address this issue, we propose TDBench, a new benchmark that systematically constructs TSQA pairs by harnessing temporal databases and database techniques, such as temporal functional dependencies, temporal SQL, and temporal joins. We also introduce a new evaluation metric called time accuracy, which assesses the validity of time references in model explanations alongside traditional answer accuracy for a more fine-grained TSQA evaluation. Extensive experiments on contemporary LLMs show how TDBench enables scalable and comprehensive TSQA evaluation while reducing the reliance on human labor, complementing current TSQA evaluation approaches that largely center on Wikipedia/Wikidata by enabling LLM evaluation on application-specific data.

Training time-series forecast models requires aligning the conditional distribution of model forecasts with that of the label sequence. The standard direct forecast (DF) approach seeks to minimize the conditional negative log-likelihood of the label sequence, typically estimated using the mean squared error. However, this estimation proves to be biased in the presence of label autocorrelation. In this paper, we propose DistDF, which achieves alignment by alternatively minimizing a discrepancy between the conditional forecast and label distributions. Because conditional discrepancies are difficult to estimate from finite time-series observations, we introduce a newly proposed joint-distribution Wasserstein discrepancy for time-series forecasting, which provably upper bounds the conditional discrepancy of interest. This discrepancy admits tractable, differentiable estimation from empirical samples and integrates seamlessly with gradient-based training. Extensive experiments show that DistDF improves the performance diverse forecast models and achieves the state-of-the-art forecasting performance. Code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/DistDF-F66B.

In dynamic financial market characterized by shifting regimes, how can we make effective investment decisions under the changing 1) market regimes and 2) their impact? Among many research fields in financial AI, portfolio allocation stands out as one of the most practically significant areas. Consequently, numerous researchers and financial institutions continually seek approaches that improve the risk–reward trade-off and strive to apply them in real-world investment scenarios. However, achieving robust risk-adjusted performance is extremely challenging, because each asset's return and volatility fluctuate according to the shifting market regime. In response, modern portfolio theory (MPT) addresses this issue by solving for asset weights that maximize a risk–reward objective, using estimates of the return mean and covariance from historical returns. Reinforcement learning (RL) frameworks have been introduced to directly decide portfolio allocations by optimizing risk‑adjusted objectives using asset prices and macroeconomic indices. In this work, we propose STABLE (Shift-Tolerant Allocation with Black-Litterman Using Conditional Diffusion Estimates), which combines a diffusion-based generative model that captures regime shifts with an estimation-based portfolio allocation module that maximizes expected risk-adjusted return. STABLE takes macroeconomic context and asset-specific signals as inputs and generates per-stock return trajectories that reflect the prevailing macro regime while preserving firm-specific dynamics. This yields regime-aware predictive return distributions at the single-stock level together with a coherent covariance structure, which are then incorporated as investor views within a Black-Litterman allocation module to obtain risk-diversified portfolio weights. Empirically, STABLE delivers superior portfolio outcomes, achieving up to 122.9% higher Sharpe ratios with reduced drawdowns across major equity markets. It also attains state‑of‑the‑art time‑series estimation, lowering MSE by up to 15.7% compared with generative baselines.

Computation methods for solving entropy-regularized reward optimization—a class of problems widely used for fine-tuning generative models—have advanced rapidly. Among those, Adjoint Matching (AM, Domingo-Enrich et al., 2025) has proven highly effective in continuous state spaces with differentiable rewards. Transferring these practical successes to _discrete_ generative modeling, however, remains particularly challenging and largely unexplored, mainly due to the drastic shift in generative model classes to discrete state spaces, which are nowhere differentiable. In this work, we propose Discrete Adjoint Matching (DAM)—a discrete variant of AM for fine-tuning discrete generative models characterized by Continuous-Time Markov Chains, such as diffusion-based large language models. The core of DAM is the introduction of _discrete adjoint_—an estimator of the optimal solution to the original problem but formulated on discrete domains—from which standard matching frameworks can be applied. This is derived via a purely statistical standpoint, in contrast to the control-theoretic viewpoint in AM, thereby opening up new algorithmic opportunities for general adjoint-based estimators. We showcase DAM’s effectiveness on synthetic and mathematical reasoning tasks.

Cross-domain generalization is very important in Time Series Forecasting because similar historical information may lead to distinct future trends due to the domain-specific characteristics. Recent works focus on building unimodal time series foundation models and end-to-end multimodal supervised models. Since domain-specific knowledge is often contained in modalities like texts, the former lacks the explicit utilization of them, thus hindering the performance. The latter is tailored for end-to-end scenarios and does not support zero-shot inference for cross-domain scenarios. In this work, we introduce Aurora, a Multimodal Time Series Foundation Model, which supports multimodal inputs and zero-shot inference. Pretrained on Corss-domain Multimodal Time Series Corpus, Aurora can adaptively extract and focus on key domain knowledge contained in corrsponding text or image modalities, thus possessing strong Cross-domain generalization capability. Through tokenization, encoding, and distillation, Aurora can extract multimodal domain knowledge as guidance and then utilizes a Modality-Guided Multi-head Self-Attention to inject them into the modeling of temporal representations. In the decoding phase, the multimodal representations are used to generate the conditions and prototypes of future tokens, contributing to a novel Prototype-Guided Flow Matching for generative probabilistic forecasting. Comprehensive experiments on well-recognized benchmarks, including TimeMMD, TSFM-Bench and ProbTS, demonstrate the consistent state-of-the-art performance of Aurora on both unimodal and multimodal scenarios.

Layer-wise normalization (LN) is an essential component of virtually all transformer-based large language models. While its effects on training stability are well documented, its role at inference time is poorly understood. Additionally, LN layers hinder mechanistic interpretability by introducing additional nonlinearities and increasing the interconnectedness of individual model components. Here we show that all LN layers can be removed from every GPT-2 model with only a small increase in validation loss (e.g. +0.03 cross-entropy loss for GPT-2 XL). Thus LN cannot play a substantial role in language modeling. We find that the amount of fine-tuning data needed for LN removal grows sublinearly with model parameters, suggesting scaling to larger models is feasible. We release a suite of LN-free GPT-2 models on Hugging Face. Furthermore, we test interpretability techniques on LN-free models. Direct logit attribution now gives the exact direct effect of individual components, while the accuracy of attribution patching does not significantly improve. We also confirm that GPT-2's "confidence neurons" are inactive in the LN-free models. Our work clarifies the role of LN layers in language modeling, showing that GPT-2-class models can function without LN layers. We hope that our LN-free analogues of the GPT-2 family of models will enable more precise interpretability research and improve our understanding of language models.

Pre-trained language models have achieved remarkable success across a wide range of natural language processing (NLP) tasks, particularly when fine-tuned on large, domain-relevant datasets. However, they remain vulnerable to backdoor attacks, where adversaries embed malicious behaviors using trigger patterns in the training data. These triggers remain dormant during normal usage, but, when activated, can cause targeted misclassifications. In this work, we investigate the internal behavior of backdoored pre-trained encoder-based language models, focusing on the consistent shift in attention and gradient attribution when processing poisoned inputs; where the trigger token dominates both attention and gradient signals, overriding the surrounding context. We propose an inference-time defense that constructs anomaly scores by combining token-level attention and gradient information. Extensive experiments on text classification tasks across diverse backdoor attack scenarios demonstrate that our method significantly reduces attack success rates compared to existing baselines. Furthermore, we provide an interpretability-driven analysis of the scoring mechanism, shedding light on trigger localization and the robustness of the proposed defense.

Safety preferences are inherently subjective, yet current LLM safety alignment methods often impose universal standards that fail to account for individual sensitivities. In this work, we propose an efficient, training-free method for personalized safety control via inference-time activation intervention. Our approach steers internal representations to suppress user-specific undesired content while preserving model utility. We systematically evaluate three strategies for estimating intervention directions: Instance-Level Contrast Shift (ILCS), Unpaired Mean Shift (UMS), and our primary method, Paired Contrast Mean Shift (PCMS). We provide theoretical insights into each approach and highlight the advantages of PCMS. Empirical results across diverse open-weight models demonstrate that our method effectively reduces undesired content in line with individual preferences, with minimal impact on helpfulness—enabling more adaptive and user-aligned LLM behavior.

Stochastic interpolants offer a robust framework for continuously transforming samples between arbitrary data distributions via ordinary or stochastic differential equations (ODEs/SDEs), holding significant promise for generative modeling. While previous studies have analyzed the finite-time convergence rate of discrete-time implementations for SDEs, the ODE counterpart remains largely unexplored. In this work, we bridge this gap by presenting a rigorous finite-time convergence analysis of numerical implementations for ODEs in the framework of stochastic interpolants. We establish novel discrete-time total variation error bounds for two widely used numerical solvers: the first-order forward Euler method and the second-order Heun's method. Our analysis also yields optimized iteration complexity results and step size schedules that enhance computational efficiency. Notably, when specialized to the diffusion model setting, our theoretical guarantees for the second-order method improve upon prior results in terms of both smoothness requirements and dimensional dependence. Our theoretical findings are corroborated by numerical and image generation experiments, which validate the derived error bounds and complexity analyses.

Actor–critic (AC) algorithms underpin many of today’s most successful reinforcement learning (RL) applications, yet their finite-time convergence in realistic settings remains largely underexplored. Existing analyses often rely on oversimplified formulations and are largely confined to linear function approximation. In practice, however, nonlinear approximations with deep neural networks dominate AC implementations, leaving a substantial gap between theory and practice. In this work, we provide the first finite-time analysis of single-timescale AC with deep neural network approximation in continuous state-action spaces. In particular, we consider the challenging time-average reward setting, where one needs to simultaneously control three highly-coupled error terms including the reward error, the critic error, and the actor error. Our novel analysis is able to establish convergence to a stationary point at a rate $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(T^{-1/2})$, where $T$ denotes the total number of iterations, thereby providing theoretical grounding for widely used deep AC methods. We substantiate these theoretical guarantees with experiments that confirm the proven convergence rate and further demonstrate strong performance on MuJoCo benchmarks.

Time series prediction underpins a broad range of downstream tasks across many scientific domains. Recent advances and increasing adoption of black-box machine learning models for time series prediction highlight the critical need for reliable uncertainty quantification. While conformal prediction has gained attention as a reliable uncertainty quantification method, conformal prediction for time series faces two key challenges: (1) adaptively leveraging correlations in features and non-conformity scores to overcome the exchangeability assumption, and (2) constructing prediction sets for multi-dimensional outcomes. To address these challenges jointly, we propose a novel conformal prediction method for time series using flow with classifier-free guidance. We provide coverage guarantees by establishing exact non-asymptotic marginal coverage and a finite-sample bound on conditional coverage for the proposed method. Evaluations on real-world time series datasets demonstrate that our method constructs significantly smaller prediction sets than existing conformal prediction methods while maintaining target coverage.

Latent diffusion has achieved remarkable success in image generation, with high sampling efficiency. However, this framework might suffer from posterior collapse when applied to time series. In this work, we first show that latent diffusion with a collapsed posterior degenerates into a much weaker generative model: variational autoencoder (VAE). This finding highlights the significance of addressing the problem. We then introduce a principled method: dependency measures, which quantify the sensitivity of a recurrent decoder to input variables. Through this method, we confirm that posterior collapse seriously affects latent time-series diffusion on real time series. For example, the latent variable has an exponentially decreasing impact on the decoder over time. Building on our theoretical and empirical studies, we finally introduce a new framework: posterior-stable latent diffusion, which interprets the diffusion process as a type of variational inference. In this way, it eliminates the use of risky KL regularization and penalizes decoder insensitivity. Extensive experiments on multiple real time-series datasets show that our new framework is with a highly stable posterior and notably outperforms previous baselines in time series synthesis.