ICLR 2025 论文列表

Diagnosing the root cause of an anomaly in a complex interconnected system is a pressing problem in today’s cloud services and industrial operations. We propose In-Distribution Interventions (IDI), a novel algorithm that predicts root cause as nodes that meet two criteria: 1) Anomaly: root cause nodes should take on anomalous values; 2) Fix: had the root cause nodes assumed usual values, the target node would not have been anomalous. Prior methods of assessing the fix condition rely on counterfactuals inferred from a Structural Causal Model (SCM) trained on historical data. But since anomalies are rare and fall outside the training distribution, the fitted SCMs yield unreliable counterfactual estimates. IDI overcomes this by relying on interventional estimates obtained by solely probing the fitted SCM at in-distribution inputs. We present a theoretical analysis comparing and bounding the errors in assessing the fix condition using interventional and counterfactual estimates. We then conduct experiments by systematically varying the SCM’s complexity to demonstrate the cases where IDI’s interventional approach outperforms the counterfactual approach and vice versa. Experiments on both synthetic and PetShop RCD benchmark datasets demonstrate that IDI consistently identifies true root causes more accurately and robustly than nine existing state-of-the-art RCD baselines. Code will be released at https://github.com/nlokeshiisc/IDI_release.

Synthetic datasets generated by structural causal models (SCMs) are commonly used for benchmarking causal structure learning algorithms. However, the variances and pairwise correlations in SCM data tend to increase along the causal ordering. Several popular algorithms exploit these artifacts, possibly leading to conclusions that do not generalize to real-world settings. Existing metrics like $\operatorname{Var}$-sortability and $\operatorname{R^2}$-sortability quantify these patterns, but they do not provide tools to remedy them. To address this, we propose internally-standardized structural causal models (iSCMs), a modification of SCMs that introduces a standardization operation at each variable during the generative process. By construction, iSCMs are not $\operatorname{Var}$-sortable. We also find empirical evidence that they are mostly not $\operatorname{R^2}$-sortable for commonly-used graph families. Moreover, contrary to the post-hoc standardization of data generated by standard SCMs, we prove that linear iSCMs are less identifiable from prior knowledge on the weights and do not collapse to deterministic relationships in large systems, which may make iSCMs a useful model in causal inference beyond the benchmarking problem studied here. Our code is publicly available at: https://github.com/werkaaa/iscm.

Understanding whether the data generative process follows causal or anticausal relations is important for many applications. Existing causal discovery methods struggle with high-dimensional perceptual data such as images. Moreover, they require well-labeled data, which may not be feasible due to measurement error. In this paper, we propose a robust method to detect whether the data generative process is causal or anticausal. To determine the causal or anticausal relation, we identify an asymmetric property: under the causal relation, the instance distribution does not contain information about the noisy class-posterior distribution. We also propose a practical method to verify this via a noise injection approach. Our method is robust to label errors and is designed to handle both large-scale and high-dimensional datasets effectively. Both theoretical analyses and empirical results on a variety of datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method in determining the causal or anticausal direction of the data generative process.

Practical and ethical constraints often require the use of observational data for causal inference, particularly in medicine and social sciences. Yet, observational datasets are prone to confounding, potentially compromising the validity of causal conclusions. While it is possible to correct for biases if the underlying causal graph is known, this is rarely a feasible ask in practical scenarios. A common strategy is to adjust for all available covariates, yet this approach can yield biased treatment effect estimates, especially when post-treatment or unobserved variables are present. We propose RAMEN, an algorithm that produces unbiased treatment effect estimates by leveraging the heterogeneity of multiple data sources without the need to know or learn the underlying causal graph. Notably, RAMEN achieves *doubly robust identification*: it can identify the treatment effect whenever the causal parents of the treatment or those of the outcome are observed, and the node whose parents are observed satisfies an invariance assumption. Empirical evaluations across synthetic, semi-synthetic, and real-world datasets show that our approach significantly outperforms existing methods.

We consider time to treatment initialization. This can commonly occur in preventive medicine, such as disease screening and vaccination; it can also occur with non-fatal health conditions such as HIV infection without the onset of AIDS. While traditional causal inference focused on ‘when to treat’ and its effects, including their possible dependence on subject characteristics, we consider the incremental causal effect when the intensity of time to treatment initialization is intervened upon. We provide identification of the incremental causal effect without the commonly required positivity assumption, as well as an estimation framework using inverse probability weighting. We illustrate our approach via simulation, and apply it to a rheumatoid arthritis study to evaluate the incremental effect of time to start methotrexate on joint pain.