ICLR 2025 论文列表

Inferring the causal structure underlying stochastic dynamical systems from observational data holds great promise in domains ranging from science and health to finance. Such processes can often be accurately modeled via stochastic differential equations (SDEs), which naturally imply causal relationships via `which variables enter the differential of which other variables'. In this paper, we develop conditional independence (CI) constraints on coordinate processes over selected intervals that are Markov with respect to the acyclic dependence graph (allowing self-loops) induced by a general SDE model. We then provide a sound and complete causal discovery algorithm, capable of handling both fully and partially observed data, and uniquely recovering the underlying or induced ancestral graph by exploiting time directionality assuming a CI oracle. Finally, to make our algorithm practically usable, we also propose a flexible, consistent signature kernel-based CI test to infer these constraints from data. We extensively benchmark the CI test in isolation and as part of our causal discovery algorithms, outperforming existing approaches in SDE models and beyond.

Discovering causal structures with latent variables from observational data is a fundamental challenge in causal discovery. Existing methods often rely on constraint-based, iterative discrete searches, limiting their scalability for large numbers of variables. Moreover, these methods frequently assume linearity or invertibility, restricting their applicability to real-world scenarios. We present new theoretical results on the identifiability of non-linear latent hierarchical causal models, relaxing previous assumptions in the literature about the deterministic nature of latent variables and exogenous noise. Building on these insights, we develop a novel differentiable causal discovery algorithm that efficiently estimates the structure of such models. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to propose a differentiable causal discovery method for non-linear latent hierarchical models. Our approach outperforms existing methods in both accuracy and scalability. Furthermore, we demonstrate its practical utility by learning interpretable hierarchical latent structures from high-dimensional image data and demonstrate its effectiveness on downstream tasks such as transfer learning.

Most traditional causal discovery methods assume that all task-relevant variables are observed, an assumption often violated in practice. Although some recent works allow the presence of latent variables, they typically assume the absence of certain special causal relations to ensure a degree of simplicity, which might also be invalid in real-world scenarios. This paper tackles a challenging and important setting where latent and observed variables are interconnected through complex causal relations. Under a pure children assumption ensuring that latent variables leave adequate footprints in observed variables, we develop novel theoretical results, leading to an efficient causal discovery algorithm which is the first one capable of handling the setting with both latent variables and complex relations within polynomial time. Our algorithm first sequentially identifies latent variables from leaves to roots and then sequentially infers causal relations from roots to leaves. Moreover, we prove trustworthiness of our algorithm, meaning that when the assumption is invalid, it can raise an error signal rather than draw an incorrect causal conclusion, thus preventing potential damage to downstream tasks. We demonstrate the efficacy of our algorithm through experiments. Our work significantly enhances efficiency and reliability of causal discovery in complex systems. Our code is available at: https://github.com/XiuchuanLi/ICLR2025-ETCD

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently been used as experts to infer causal graphs, often by repeatedly applying a pairwise prompt that asks about the causal relationship of each variable pair. However, such experts, including human domain experts, cannot distinguish between direct and indirect effects given a pairwise prompt. Therefore, instead of the graph, we propose that causal order be used as a more stable output interface for utilizing expert knowledge. When querying a perfect expert with a pairwise prompt, we show that the inferred graph can have significant errors whereas the causal order is always correct. In practice, however, LLMs are imperfect experts and we find that pairwise prompts lead to multiple cycles and do not yield a valid order. Hence, we propose a prompting strategy that introduces an auxiliary variable for every variable pair and instructs the LLM to avoid cycles within this triplet. We show, both theoretically and empirically, that such a triplet prompt leads to fewer cycles than the pairwise prompt. Across multiple real-world graphs, the triplet prompt yields a more accurate order using both LLMs and human annotators as experts. By querying the expert with different auxiliary variables for the same variable pair, it also increases robustness---triplet method with much smaller models such as Phi-3 and Llama-3 8B outperforms a pairwise prompt with GPT-4. For practical usage, we show how the estimated causal order from the triplet method can be used to reduce error in downstream discovery and effect inference tasks.

Existing score-based methods for directed acyclic graph (DAG) learning from observational data struggle to recover the causal graph accurately and sample-efficiently. To overcome this, in this study, we propose DrBO (DAG recovery via Bayesian Optimization)—a novel DAG learning framework leveraging Bayesian optimization (BO) to find high-scoring DAGs. We show that, by sophisticatedly choosing the promising DAGs to explore, we can find higher-scoring ones much more efficiently. To address the scalability issues of conventional BO in DAG learning, we replace Gaussian Processes commonly employed in BO with dropout neural networks, trained in a continual manner, which allows for (i) flexibly modeling the DAG scores without overfitting, (ii) incorporation of uncertainty into the estimated scores, and (iii) scaling with the number of evaluations. As a result, DrBO is computationally efficient and can find the accurate DAG in fewer trials and less time than existing state-of-the-art methods. This is demonstrated through an extensive set of empirical evaluations on many challenging settings with both synthetic and real data. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/baosws/DrBO.

Learning the structure of Bayesian networks is a fundamental yet computationally intensive task, especially as the number of variables grows. Traditional algorithms require retraining from scratch when new variables are introduced, making them impractical for dynamic or large-scale applications. In this paper, we propose an extendable structure learning strategy that efficiently incorporates a new variable $Y$ into an existing Bayesian network graph $\mathcal{G}$ over variables $\mathcal{X}$, resulting in an updated P-map graph $\bar{\mathcal{G}}$ on $\bar{\mathcal{X}} = \mathcal{X} \cup \{Y\}$. By leveraging the information encoded in $\mathcal{G}$, our method significantly reduces computational overhead compared to learning $\bar{\mathcal{G}}$ from scratch. Empirical evaluations demonstrate runtime reductions of up to 1300x without compromising accuracy. Building on this approach, we introduce a novel iterative paradigm for structure learning over $\mathcal{X}$. Starting with a small subset $\mathcal{U} \subset \mathcal{X}$, we iteratively add the remaining variables using our extendable algorithms to construct a P-map graph over the full set. This method offers runtime advantages comparable to common algorithms while maintaining similar accuracy. Our contributions provide a scalable solution for Bayesian network structure learning, enabling efficient model updates in real-time and high-dimensional settings.