ICLR 2024 论文列表

Primal-dual safe RL methods commonly perform iterations between the primal update of the policy and the dual update of the Lagrange Multiplier. Such a training paradigm is highly susceptible to the error in cumulative cost estimation since this estimation serves as the key bond connecting the primal and dual update processes. We show that this problem causes significant underestimation of cost when using off-policy methods, leading to the failure to satisfy the safety constraint. To address this issue, we propose conservative policy optimization, which learns a policy in a constraint-satisfying area by considering the uncertainty in cost estimation. This improves constraint satisfaction but also potentially hinders reward maximization. We then introduce local policy convexification to help eliminate such suboptimality by gradually reducing the estimation uncertainty. We provide theoretical interpretations of the joint coupling effect of these two ingredients and further verify them by extensive experiments. Results on benchmark tasks show that our method not only achieves an asymptotic performance comparable to state-of-the-art on-policy methods while using much fewer samples, but also significantly reduces constraint violation during training. Our code is available at https://github.com/ZifanWu/CAL.

We study the problem of building a controller that can follow open-ended instructions in open-world environments. We propose to follow reference videos as instructions, which offer expressive goal specifications while eliminating the need for expensive text-gameplay annotations. A new learning framework is derived to allow learning such instruction-following controllers from gameplay videos while producing a video instruction encoder that induces a structured goal space. We implement our agent GROOT in a simple yet effective encoder-decoder architecture based on causal transformers. We evaluate GROOT against open-world counterparts and human players on a proposed Minecraft SkillForge benchmark. The Elo ratings clearly show that GROOT is closing the human-machine gap as well as exhibiting a 70% winning rate over the best generalist agent baseline. Qualitative analysis of the induced goal space further demonstrates some interesting emergent properties, including the goal composition and complex gameplay behavior synthesis.

Clinical predictive models often rely on patients’ electronic health records (EHR), but integrating medical knowledge to enhance predictions and decision-making is challenging. This is because personalized predictions require personalized knowledge graphs (KGs), which are difficult to generate from patient EHR data. To address this, we propose GraphCare, an open-world framework that uses external KGs to improve EHR-based predictions. Our method extracts knowledge from large language models (LLMs) and external biomedical KGs to build patient-specific KGs, which are then used to train our proposed Bi-attention AugmenTed (BAT) graph neural network (GNN) for healthcare predictions. On two public datasets, MIMIC-III and MIMIC-IV, GraphCare surpasses baselines in four vital healthcare prediction tasks: mortality, readmission, length of stay (LOS), and drug recommendation. On MIMIC-III, it boosts AUROC by 17.6% and 6.6% for mortality and readmission, and F1-score by 7.9% and 10.8% for LOS and drug recommendation, respectively. Notably, GraphCare demonstrates a substantial edge in scenarios with limited data availability. Our findings highlight the potential of using external KGs in healthcare prediction tasks and demonstrate the promise of GraphCare in generating personalized KGs for promoting personalized medicine.

Cascaded models are multi-scale generative models with a marked capacity for producing perceptually impressive samples at high resolutions. In this work, we show that they can also be excellent likelihood models, so long as we overcome a fundamental difficulty with probabilistic multi-scale models: the intractability of the likelihood function. Chiefly, in cascaded models each intermediary scale introduces extraneous variables that cannot be tractably marginalized out for likelihood evaluation. This issue vanishes by modeling the diffusion process on latent spaces induced by a class of transformations we call hierarchical volume-preserving maps, which decompose spatially structured data in a hierarchical fashion without introducing local distortions in the latent space. We demonstrate that two such maps are well-known in the literature for multiscale modeling: Laplacian pyramids and wavelet transforms. Not only do such reparameterizations allow the likelihood function to be directly expressed as a joint likelihood over the scales, we show that the Laplacian pyramid and wavelet transform also produces significant improvements to the state-of-the-art on a selection of benchmarks in likelihood modeling, including density estimation, lossless compression, and out-of-distribution detection. Investigating the theoretical basis of our empirical gains we uncover deep connections to score matching under the Earth Mover's Distance (EMD), which is a well-known surrogate for perceptual similarity.

In this paper, we propose a novel approach to conformal prediction for language models (LMs) in which we produce prediction sets with performance guarantees. LM responses are typically sampled from a predicted distribution over the large, combinatorial output space of language. Translating this to conformal prediction, we calibrate a stopping rule for sampling LM outputs that get added to a growing set of candidates until we are confident that the set covers at least one acceptable response. Since some samples may be low-quality, we also simultaneously calibrate a rejection rule for removing candidates from the output set to reduce noise. Similar to conformal prediction, we can prove that the final output set obeys certain desirable distribution-free guarantees. Within these sets of candidate responses, we also show that we can also identify subsets of individual components---such as phrases or sentences---that are each independently correct (e.g., that are not ``hallucinations''), again with guarantees. Our method can be applied to any LM API that supports sampling. Furthermore, we empirically demonstrate that we can achieve many desired coverage levels within a limited number of total samples when applying our method to multiple tasks in open-domain question answering, text summarization, and radiology report generation using different LM variants.

We consider off-policy evaluation (OPE) of deterministic target policies for reinforcement learning (RL) in environments with continuous action spaces. While it is common to use importance sampling for OPE, it suffers from high variance when the behavior policy deviates significantly from the target policy. In order to address this issue, some recent works on OPE proposed in-sample learning with importance resampling. Yet, these approaches are not applicable to deterministic target policies for continuous action spaces. To address this limitation, we propose to relax the deterministic target policy using a kernel and learn the kernel metrics that minimize the overall mean squared error of the estimated temporal difference update vector of an action value function, where the action value function is used for policy evaluation. We derive the bias and variance of the estimation error due to this relaxation and provide analytic solutions for the optimal kernel metric. In empirical studies using various test domains, we show that the OPE with in-sample learning using the kernel with optimized metric achieves significantly improved accuracy than other baselines.

This paper introduces $\pi$2vec, a method for representing black box policies as comparable feature vectors. Our method combines the strengths of foundation models that serve as generic and powerful state representations and successor features that can model the future occurrence of the states for a policy. $\pi$2vec represents the behavior of policies by capturing the statistics of the features from a pretrained model with the help of successor feature framework. We focus on the offline setting where policies and their representations are trained on a fixed dataset of trajectories. Finally, we employ linear regression on $\pi$2vec vector representations to predict the performance of held out policies. The synergy of these techniques results in a method for efficient policy evaluation in resource constrained environments.

Current advancements in reinforcement learning (RL) have predominantly focused on learning step-based policies that generate actions for each perceived state. While these methods efficiently leverage step information from environmental interaction, they often ignore the temporal correlation between actions, resulting in inefficient exploration and unsmooth trajectories that are challenging to implement on real hardware. Episodic RL (ERL) seeks to overcome these challenges by exploring in parameters space that capture the correlation of actions. However, these approaches typically compromise data efficiency, as they treat trajectories as opaque black boxes. In this work, we introduce a novel ERL algorithm, Temporally-Correlated Episodic RL (TCE), which effectively utilizes step information in episodic policy updates, opening the 'black box' in existing ERL methods while retaining the smooth and consistent exploration in parameter space. TCE synergistically combines the advantages of step-based and episodic RL, achieving comparable performance to recent ERL methods while maintaining data efficiency akin to state-of-the-art (SoTA) step-based RL.

Human beings can make adaptive decisions in a preparatory manner, i.e., by making preparations in advance, which offers significant advantages in scenarios where both online and offline experiences are expensive and limited. Meanwhile, current reinforcement learning methods commonly rely on numerous environment interactions but hardly obtain generalizable policies. In this paper, we introduce the idea of \textit{rehearsal} into policy optimization, where the agent plans for all possible outcomes in mind and acts adaptively according to actual responses from the environment. To effectively rehearse, we propose ReDM, an algorithm that generates a diverse and eligible set of dynamics models and then rehearse the policy via adaptive training on the generated model set. Rehearsal enables the policy to make decision plans for various hypothetical dynamics and to naturally generalize to previously unseen environments. Our experimental results demonstrate that ReDM is capable of learning a valid policy solely through rehearsal, even with \emph{zero} interaction data. We further extend ReDM to scenarios where limited or mismatched interaction data is available, and our experimental results reveal that ReDM produces high-performing policies compared to other offline RL baselines.

Policy gradient methods hold great potential for solving complex continuous control tasks. Still, their training efficiency can be improved by exploiting structure within the optimization problem. Recent work indicates that supervised learning can be accelerated by leveraging the fact that gradients lie in a low-dimensional and slowly-changing subspace. In this paper, we conduct a thorough evaluation of this phenomenon for two popular deep policy gradient methods on various simulated benchmark tasks. Our results demonstrate the existence of such gradient subspaces despite the continuously changing data distribution inherent to reinforcement learning. These findings reveal promising directions for future work on more efficient reinforcement learning, e.g., through improving parameter-space exploration or enabling second-order optimization.

In the realm of reinforcement learning (RL), off-policy evaluation (OPE) holds a pivotal position, especially in high-stake human-involved scenarios such as e-learning and healthcare. Applying OPE to these domains is often challenging with scarce and underrepresentative offline training trajectories. Data augmentation has been a successful technique to enrich training data. However, directly employing existing data augmentation methods to OPE may not be feasible, due to the Markovian nature within the offline trajectories and the desire for generalizability across diverse target policies. In this work, we propose an offline trajectory augmentation approach to specifically facilitate OPE in human-involved scenarios. We propose sub-trajectory mining to extract potentially valuable sub-trajectories from offline data, and diversify the behaviors within those sub-trajectories by varying coverage of the state-action space. Our work was empirically evaluated in a wide array of environments, encompassing both simulated scenarios and real-world domains like robotic control, healthcare, and e-learning, where the training trajectories include varying levels of coverage of the state-action space. By enhancing the performance of a variety of OPE methods, our work offers a promising path forward for tackling OPE challenges in situations where data may be limited or underrepresentative.

While reinforcement learning (RL) has shown promising performance, its sample complexity continues to be a substantial hurdle, restricting its broader application across a variety of domains. Imitation learning (IL) utilizes oracles to improve sample efficiency, yet it is often constrained by the quality of the oracles deployed. To address the demand for robust policy improvement in real-world scenarios, we introduce a novel algorithm, Robust Policy Improvement (RPI), which actively interleaves between IL and RL based on an online estimate of their performance. RPI draws on the strengths of IL, using oracle queries to facilitate exploration—an aspect that is notably challenging in sparse-reward RL—particularly during the early stages of learning. As learning unfolds, RPI gradually transitions to RL, effectively treating the learned policy as an improved oracle. This algorithm is capable of learning from and improving upon a diverse set of black-box oracles. Integral to RPI are Robust Active Policy Selection (RAPS) and Robust Policy Gradient (RPG), both of which reason over whether to perform state-wise imitation from the oracles or learn from its own value function when the learner’s performance surpasses that of the oracles in a specific state. Empirical evaluations and theoretical analysis validate that RPI excels in comparison to existing state-of-the-art methodologies, demonstrating superior performance across various benchmark domains.

Robust Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) and risk-sensitive MDPs are both powerful tools for making decisions in the presence of uncertainties. Previous efforts have aimed to establish their connections, revealing equivalences in specific formulations. This paper introduces a new formulation for risk-sensitive MDPs, which assesses risk in a slightly different manner compared to the classical Markov risk measure [Ruszczy ́nski 2010], and establishes its equivalence with a class of soft robust MDP (RMDP) problems, including the standard RMDP as a special case. Leveraging this equivalence, we further derive the policy gradient theorem for both problems, proving gradient domination and global convergence of the exact policy gradient method under the tabular setting with direct parameterization. This forms a sharp contrast to the Markov risk measure, known to be potentially non-gradient-dominant [Huang et al. 2021]. We also propose a sample-based offline learning algorithm, namely the robust fitted-Z iteration (RFZI), for a specific soft RMDP problem with a KL-divergence regularization term (or equivalently the risk-sensitive MDP with an entropy risk measure). We showcase its streamlined design and less stringent assumptions due to the equivalence and analyze its sample complexity.

In this paper, we introduce FITS, a lightweight yet powerful model for time series analysis. Unlike existing models that directly process raw time-domain data, FITS operates on the principle that time series can be manipulated through interpolation in the complex frequency domain, achieving performance comparable to state-of-the-art models for time series forecasting and anomaly detection tasks. Notably, FITS accomplishes this with a svelte profile of just about $10k$ parameters, making it ideally suited for edge devices and paving the way for a wide range of applications. The code is available for review at: \url{https://anonymous.4open.science/r/FITS}.

Predicting the future is of great interest across many aspects of human activity. Businesses are interested in future trends, traders are interested in future stock prices, and companies are highly interested in future technological breakthroughs. While there are many automated systems for predicting future numerical data, such as weather, stock prices, and demand for products, there is relatively little work in automatically predicting textual data. Humans are interested in textual data predictions because it is a natural format for our consumption, and experts routinely make predictions in a textual format (Christensen et al., 2004; Tetlock & Gardner, 2015; Frick, 2015). However, there has been relatively little formalization of this general problem in the machine learning or natural language processing communities. To address this gap, we introduce the task of future language modeling: probabilistic modeling of texts in the future based on a temporal history of texts. To our knowledge, our work is the first work to formalize the task of predicting the future in this way. We show that it is indeed possible to build future language models that improve upon strong non-temporal language model baselines, opening the door to working on this important, and widely applicable problem.

Masked Language Modeling (MLM) has been one of the most prominent approaches for pretraining bidirectional text encoders due to its simplicity and effectiveness. One notable concern about MLM is that the special $\texttt{[MASK]}$ symbol causes a discrepancy between pretraining data and downstream data as it is present only in pretraining but not in fine-tuning. In this work, we offer a new perspective on the consequence of such a discrepancy: We demonstrate empirically and theoretically that MLM pretraining allocates some model dimensions exclusively for representing $\texttt{[MASK]}$ tokens, resulting in a representation deficiency for real tokens and limiting the pretrained model's expressiveness when it is adapted to downstream data without $\texttt{[MASK]}$ tokens. Motivated by the identified issue, we propose MAE-LM, which pretrains the Masked Autoencoder architecture with MLM where $\texttt{[MASK]}$ tokens are excluded from the encoder. Empirically, we show that MAE-LM improves the utilization of model dimensions for real token representations, and MAE-LM consistently outperforms MLM-pretrained models on the GLUE and SQuAD benchmarks.

The carbon footprint associated with large language models (LLMs) is a significant concern, encompassing emissions from their training, inference, experimentation, and storage processes, including operational and embodied carbon emissions. An essential aspect is accurately estimating the carbon impact of emerging LLMs even before their training, which heavily relies on GPU usage. Existing studies have reported the carbon footprint of LLM training, but only one tool, mlco2, can predict the carbon footprint of new neural networks prior to physical training. However, mlco2 has several serious limitations. It cannot extend its estimation to dense or mixture-of-experts (MoE) LLMs, disregards critical architectural parameters, focuses solely on GPUs, and cannot model embodied carbon footprints. Addressing these gaps, we introduce \textit{\carb}, an end-to-end carbon footprint projection model designed for both dense and MoE LLMs. Compared to mlco2, \carb~significantly enhances the accuracy of carbon footprint estimations for various LLMs. The source code is released at \url{https://github.com/SotaroKaneda/MLCarbon}.

Learning from off-policy data is essential for sample-efficient reinforcement learning. In the present work, we build on the insight that the advantage function can be understood as the causal effect of an action on the return, and show that this allows us to decompose the return of a trajectory into parts caused by the agent’s actions (skill) and parts outside of the agent’s control (luck). Furthermore, this decomposition enables us to naturally extend Direct Advantage Estimation (DAE) to off-policy settings (Off-policy DAE). The resulting method can learn from off-policy trajectories without relying on importance sampling techniques or truncating off-policy actions. We draw connections between Off-policy DAE and previous methods to demonstrate how it can speed up learning and when the proposed off-policy corrections are important. Finally, we use the MinAtar environments to illustrate how ignoring off-policy corrections can lead to suboptimal policy optimization performance.

We study the problem of modeling a population of agents pursuing unknown goals subject to unknown computational constraints. In standard models of bounded rationality, sub-optimal decision-making is simulated by adding homoscedastic noise to optimal decisions rather than actually simulating constrained inference. In this work, we introduce a latent inference budget model (L-IBM) that models these constraints explicitly, via a latent variable (inferred jointly with a model of agents’ goals) that controls the runtime of an iterative inference algorithm. L-IBMs make it possible to learn agent models using data from diverse populations of suboptimal actors. In three modeling tasks—inferring navigation goals from routes, inferring communicative intents from human utterances, and predicting next moves in human chess games—we show that L-IBMs match or outperforms Boltzmann models of decision-making under uncertainty. Moreover, the inferred inference budgets are themselves meaningful, efficient to compute, and correlated with measures of player skill, partner skill and task difficulty.