AISTATS 2025 论文列表

With the widespread availability of sensor data across industrial and operational systems, we frequently encounter heterogeneous time series from multiple systems. Anomaly detection is crucial for such systems to facilitate predictive maintenance. However, most existing anomaly detection methods are designed for either univariate or single-system multivariate data, making them insufficient for these complex scenarios. To address this, we introduce M$^2$AD, a framework for unsupervised anomaly detection in multivariate time series data from multiple systems. M$^2$AD employs deep models to capture expected behavior under normal conditions, using the residuals as indicators of potential anomalies. These residuals are then aggregated into a global anomaly score through a Gaussian Mixture Model and Gamma calibration. We theoretically demonstrate that this framework can effectively address heterogeneity and dependencies across sensors and systems. Empirically, M$^2$AD outperforms existing methods in extensive evaluations by 21% on average, and its effectiveness is demonstrated on a large-scale real-world case study on 130 assets in Amazon Fulfillment Centers. Our code and results are available at https://github.com/sarahmish/M2AD.

We consider the problem of recovering latent information from graphs under $\varepsilon$-edge local differential privacy where the presence of relationships/edges between two users/vertices remains confidential, even from the data curator. For the class of generalized random dot-product graphs, we show that a standard local differential privacy mechanism induces a specific geometric distortion in the latent positions. Leveraging this insight, we show that consistent recovery of the latent positions is achievable by appropriately adjusting the statistical inference procedure for the privatized graph. Furthermore, we prove that our procedure is nearly minimax-optimal under local edge differential privacy constraints. Lastly, we show that this framework allows for consistent recovery of geometric and topological information underlying the latent positions, as encoded in their persistence diagrams. Our results extend previous work from the private community detection literature to a substantially richer class of models and inferential tasks.

Latent variable models are powerful tools for learning low-dimensional manifolds from high-dimensional data. However, when dealing with constrained data such as unit-norm vectors or symmetric positive-definite matrices, existing approaches ignore the underlying geometric constraints or fail to provide meaningful metrics in the latent space. To address these limitations, we propose to learn Riemannian latent representations of such geometric data. To do so, we estimate the pullback metric induced by a Wrapped Gaussian Process Latent Variable Model, which explicitly accounts for the data geometry. This enables us to define geometry-aware notions of distance and shortest paths in the latent space, while ensuring that our model only assigns probability mass to the data manifold. This generalizes previous work and allows us to handle complex tasks in various domains, including robot motion synthesis and analysis of brain connectomes.

We study convolutional neural networks with monomial activation functions. Specifically, we prove that their parameterization map is regular and is an isomorphism almost everywhere, up to rescaling the filters. By leveraging on tools from algebraic geometry, we explore the geometric properties of the image in function space of this map -- typically referred to as neuromanifold. In particular, we compute the dimension and the degree of the neuromanifold, which measure the expressivity of the model, and describe its singularities. Moreover, for a generic large dataset, we derive an explicit formula that quantifies the number of critical points arising in the optimization of a regression loss.

This paper addresses the optimization problem of minimizing non-convex continuous functions, a problem highly relevant in high-dimensional machine learning scenarios, particularly those involving over-parameterization. We analyze a randomized coordinate second-order method named SSCN, which can be interpreted as applying the cubic regularization of Newton's method in random subspaces. This approach effectively reduces the computational complexity associated with utilizing second-order information, making it applicable in higher-dimensional scenarios. Theoretically, we establish strong global convergence guarantees for non-convex functions to a stationary point, with interpolating rates for arbitrary subspace sizes and allowing inexact curvature estimation, starting from an arbitrary initialization. When increasing the subspace size, our complexity matches the $\mathcal{O}(\epsilon^{-3/2})$ rate of the full Newton's method with cubic regularization. Additionally, we propose an adaptive sampling scheme ensuring the exact convergence rate of $\mathcal{O}(\epsilon^{-3/2}, \epsilon^{-3})$ to a second-order stationary point, without requiring to sample all coordinates. Experimental results demonstrate substantial speed-ups achieved by SSCN compared to conventional first-order methods and other second-order subspace methods.

Proposed in Hyvärinen (2005), score matching is a statistical estimation procedure that does not require computation of distributional normalizing constants. In this work we utilize the geometric median of means to develop a robust score matching procedure that yields consistent parameter estimates in settings where the observed data has been contaminated. A special appeal of the proposed method is that it retains convexity in exponential family models. The new method is therefore particularly attractive for non-Gaussian, exponential family graphical models where evaluation of normalizing constants is intractable. Support recovery guarantees for such models when contamination is present are provided. Additionally, support recovery is studied in numerical experiments and on a precipitation dataset. We demonstrate that the proposed robust score matching estimator performs comparably to the standard score matching estimator when no contamination is present but greatly outperforms this estimator in a setting with contamination.

We study the generalization properties of neural networks through the lens of data complexity. Recent work by Buzaglo et al. (2024) shows that random (nearly) interpolating networks generalize, provided there is a small "teacher" network that achieves small excess risk. We give a short single-sample PAC-Bayes proof of this result and an analogous "fast-rate" result for random samples from Gibbs posteriors. The resulting oracle inequality motivates a new notion of data complexity, based on the minimal size of a teacher network required to achieve any given level of excess risk. We show that polynomial data complexity gives rise to power laws connecting risk to the number of training samples, like in empirical neural scaling laws. By comparing the "scaling laws" resulting from our bounds to those observed in empirical studies, we provide evidence for lower bounds on the data complexity of standard benchmarks.

Many scientific fields collect longitudinal count compositional data. Each observation is a multivariate count vector, where the total counts are arbitrary, and the information lies in the relative frequency of the counts. Multiple authors have proposed Bayesian Multinomial Logistic-Normal Dynamic Linear Models (MLN-DLMs) as a flexible approach to modeling these data. However, adoption of these methods has been limited by computational challenges. This article develops an efficient and accurate approach to posterior state estimation, called Fenrir. Our approach relies on a novel algorithm for MAP estimation and an accurate approximation to a key posterior marginal of the model. As there are no equivalent methods against which we can compare, we also develop an optimized Stan implementation of MLN-DLMs. Our experiments suggest that Fenrir can be three orders of magnitude more efficient than Stan and can even be incorporated into larger sampling schemes for joint inference of model hyperparameters. Our methods are made available to the community as a user-friendly software library written in C++ with an R interface.

From pedestrians to Kuramoto oscillators, interactions between agents govern how dynamical systems evolve in space and time. Discovering how these agents relate to each other has the potential to improve our understanding of the often complex dynamics that underlie these systems. Recent works learn to categorize relationships between agents based on observations of their physical behavior. These approaches model relationship categories as outcomes of a categorical distribution which is limiting and contrary to real-world systems, where relationship categories often intermingle and interact. In this work, we introduce a level of abstraction between the observable behavior of agents and the latent categories that determine their behavior. To do this, we learn a mapping from agent observations to agent preferences for a set of latent categories. The learned preferences and inter-agent proximity are integrated in a nonlinear opinion dynamics model, which allows us to naturally identify mutually exclusive categories, predict an agent's evolution in time, and control an agent's behavior. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate the utility of our model for learning interpretable categories, and the efficacy of our model for long-horizon trajectory prediction.

Microcanonical gradient descent is a sampling procedure for energy-based models allowing for efficient sampling of distributions in high dimension. It works by transporting samples from a high-entropy distribution, such as Gaussian white noise, to a low-energy region using gradient descent. We put this model in the framework of normalizing flows, showing how it can often overfit by losing an unnecessary amount of entropy in the descent. As a remedy, we propose a mean-field microcanonical gradient descent that samples several weakly coupled data points simultaneously, allowing for better control of the entropy loss while paying little in terms of likelihood fit. We study these models in the context of stationary time series and 2D textures.

Supervised contrastive learning (SupCL) has emerged as a prominent approach in representation learning, leveraging both supervised and self-supervised losses. However, achieving an optimal balance between these losses is challenging; failing to do so can lead to class collapse, reducing discrimination among individual embeddings in the same class. In this paper, we present theoretically grounded guidelines for SupCL to prevent class collapse in learned representations. Specifically, we introduce the Simplex-to-Simplex Embedding Model (SSEM), a theoretical framework that models various embedding structures, including all embeddings that minimize the supervised contrastive loss. Through SSEM, we analyze how hyperparameters affect learned representations, offering practical guidelines for hyperparameter selection to mitigate the risk of class collapse. Our theoretical findings are supported by empirical results across synthetic and real-world datasets.

Score-based generative modeling with probability flow ordinary differential equations (ODEs) has achieved remarkable success in a variety of applications. While various fast ODE-based samplers have been proposed in the literature and employed in practice, the theoretical understandings about convergence properties of the probability flow ODE are still quite limited. In this paper, we provide the first non-asymptotic convergence analysis for a general class of probability flow ODE samplers in 2-Wasserstein distance, assuming accurate score estimates and smooth log-concave data distributions. We then consider various examples and establish results on the iteration complexity of the corresponding ODE-based samplers. Our proof technique relies on spelling out explicitly the contraction rate for the continuous-time ODE and analyzing the discretization and score-matching errors by using synchronous coupling; the challenge in our analysis mainly arises from the inherent non-autonomy of the probability flow ODE and the specific exponential integrator that we study.

Knowledge graphs serve as critical resources supporting intelligent systems, but they can be noisy due to imperfect automatic generation processes. Existing approaches to noise detection often rely on external facts, logical rule constraints, or structural embeddings. These methods are often challenged by imperfect entity alignment, flexible knowledge graph construction, and overfitting on structures. In this paper, we propose to exploit the consistency between entity and relation type information for noise detection, resulting a novel self-supervised knowledge graph denoising method that avoids those problems. We formalize \textit{type inconsistency} noise as triples that deviate from the majority with respect to type-dependent reasoning along the topological structure. Specifically, we first extract a compact representation of a given knowledge graph via an encoder that models the type dependencies of triples. Then, the decoder reconstructs the original input knowledge graph based on the compact representation. It is worth noting that, our proposal has the potential to address the problems of knowledge graph compression and completion, although this is not our focus. For the specific task of noise detection, the discrepancy between the reconstruction results and the input knowledge graph provides an opportunity for denoising, which is facilitated by the type consistency embedded in our method. Experimental validation demonstrates the effectiveness of our approach in detecting potential noise in real-world data.

We study privately releasing column sums of a $d$-dimensional table with entries from a universe $\chi$ undergoing $T$ row updates, called histogram under continual release. Our mechanisms give better additive $\ell_\infty$-error than existing mechanisms for a large class of queries and input streams. Our first contribution is an output-sensitive mechanism in the insertions-only model ($\chi = \\{0,1\\}$) for maintaining (i) the histogram or (ii) queries that do not require maintaining the entire histogram, such as the maximum or minimum column sum, the median, or any quantiles. The mechanism has an additive error of $O(d\log^2 (dq^*)+\log T)$ whp, where $q^*$ is the maximum output value over all time steps on this dataset. The mechanism does not require $q^*$ as input. This breaks the $\Omega(d \log T)$ bound of prior work when $q^* \ll T$. Our second contribution is a mechanism for the turnstile model that admits negative entry updates ($\chi = \\{-1, 0,1\\}$). This mechanism has an additive error of $O(d \log^2 (dK) + \log T)$ whp, where $K$ is the number of times two consecutive data rows differ, and the mechanism does not require $K$ as input. This is useful when monitoring inputs that only vary under unusual circumstances. For $d=1$ this gives the first private mechanism with error $O(\log^2 K + \log T)$ for continual counting in the turnstile model, improving on the $O(\log^2 n + \log T)$ error bound by Dwork, Naor, Reingold, Rothblum (ASIACRYPT 2015), where $n$ is the number of ones in the stream, as well as allowing negative entries, while Dwork et al. (2015) can only handle nonnegative entries ($\chi=\\{0,1\\}$).

Many risk-sensitive applications require well-calibrated prediction sets over multiple, potentially correlated target variables, for which the prediction algorithm may report correlated errors. In this work, we aim to construct the conformal prediction set accounting for the joint correlation structure of the vector-valued non-conformity scores. Drawing from the rich literature on multivariate quantiles and semiparametric statistics, we propose an algorithm to estimate the $1-\alpha$ quantile of the scores, where $\alpha$ is the user-specified miscoverage rate. In particular, we flexibly estimate the joint cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the scores using nonparametric vine copulas and improve the asymptotic efficiency of the quantile estimate using its influence function. The vine decomposition allows our method to scale well to a large number of targets. As well as guaranteeing asymptotically exact coverage, our method yields desired coverage and competitive efficiency on a range of real-world regression problems, including those with missing-at-random labels in the calibration set.

Positive and negative dependence are fundamental concepts that characterize the attractive and repulsive behavior of random subsets. Although some probabilistic models are known to exhibit positive or negative dependence, it is challenging to seamlessly bridge them with a practicable probabilistic model. In this study, we introduce a new family of distributions, named the discrete kernel point process (DKPP), which includes determinantal point processes and parts of Boltzmann machines. We also develop some computational methods for probabilistic operations and inference with DKPPs, such as calculating marginal and conditional probabilities and learning the parameters. Our numerical experiments demonstrate the controllability of positive and negative dependence and the effectiveness of the computational methods for DKPPs.

Local Differential Privacy (LDP) offers strong privacy guarantees without requiring users to trust external parties. However, LDP applies uniform protection to all data features, including less sensitive ones, which degrades performance of downstream tasks. To overcome this limitation, we propose a Bayesian framework, Bayesian Coordinate Differential Privacy (BCDP), that enables feature-specific privacy quantification. This more nuanced approach complements LDP by adjusting privacy protection according to the sensitivity of each feature, enabling improved performance of downstream tasks without compromising privacy. We characterize the properties of BCDP and articulate its connections with standard non-Bayesian privacy frameworks. We further apply our BCDP framework to the problems of private mean estimation and ordinary least-squares regression. The BCDP-based approach obtains improved accuracy compared to a purely LDP-based approach, without compromising on privacy.

Uncertainty quantification in deep learning is crucial for safe and reliable decision-making in downstream tasks. Existing methods quantify uncertainty at the last layer or other approximations of the network which may miss some sources of uncertainty in the model. To address this gap, we propose an uncertainty quantification method for large networks based on variation due to regularization. Essentially, predictions that are more (less) sensitive to the regularization of network parameters are less (more, respectively) certain. This principle can be implemented by deterministically tweaking the training loss during the fine-tuning phase and reflects confidence in the output as a function of all layers of the network. We show that regularization variation (RegVar) provides rigorous uncertainty estimates that, in the infinitesimal limit, exactly recover the Laplace approximation in Bayesian deep learning. We demonstrate its success in several deep learning architectures, showing it can scale tractably with the network size while maintaining or improving uncertainty quantification quality. Our experiments across multiple datasets show that RegVar not only identifies uncertain predictions effectively but also provides insights into the stability of learned representations.

We consider the problem of late multimodal fusion for discriminative learning. Motivated by noisy, multi-source domains that require understanding the reliability of each data source, we explore the notion of credibility in the context of multimodal fusion. We propose a combination function that uses probabilistic circuits (PCs) to combine predictive distributions over individual modalities. We also define a probabilistic measure to evaluate the credibility of each modality via inference queries over the PC. Our experimental evaluation demonstrates that our fusion method can reliably infer credibility while being competitive with the state-of-the-art.