AISTATS 2025 论文列表

International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics

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583篇论文

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    376.3%
  • Poster
    54693.7%

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Spectral Representation for Causal Estimation with Hidden Confounders

Haotian Sun, Antoine Moulin, Tongzheng Ren, Arthur Gretton, Bo Dai

展开摘要

We study the problem of causal effect estimation in the presence of unobserved confounders, focusing on two settings: instrumental variable (IV) regression with additional observed confounders, and proxy causal learning. Our approach uses a singular value decomposition of a conditional expectation operator combined with a saddle-point optimization method. In the IV regression setting, this can be viewed as a neural network generalization of the seminal approach due to Darolles et al. (2011). Saddle-point formulations have recently gained attention because they mitigate the double-sampling bias and are compatible with modern function approximation methods. We provide experimental validation across various settings and show that our approach outperforms existing methods on common benchmarks.

Poster
Heterogeneous Graph Structure Learning through the Lens of Data-generating Processes

Keyue Jiang, Bohan Tang, Xiaowen Dong, Laura Toni

展开摘要

Inferring the graph structure from observed data is a key task in graph machine learning to capture the intrinsic relationship between data entities. While significant advancements have been made in learning the structure of homogeneous graphs, many real-world graphs exhibit heterogeneous patterns where nodes and edges have multiple types. This paper fills this gap by introducing the first approach for heterogeneous graph structure learning (HGSL). To this end, we first propose a novel statistical model for the data-generating process (DGP) of heterogeneous graph data, namely hidden Markov networks for heterogeneous graphs (H2MN). Then we formalize HGSL as a maximum a-posterior estimation problem parameterized by such DGP and derive an alternating optimization method to obtain a solution together with a theoretical justification of the optimization conditions. Finally, we conduct extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets to demonstrate that our proposed method excels in learning structure on heterogeneous graphs in terms of edge type identification and edge weight recovery.

Poster
LC-Tsallis-INF: Generalized Best-of-Both-Worlds Linear Contextual Bandits

Masahiro Kato, Shinji Ito

展开摘要

We investigate the \emph{linear contextual bandit problem} with independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) contexts. In this problem, we aim to develop a \emph{Best-of-Both-Worlds} (BoBW) algorithm with regret upper bounds in both stochastic and adversarial regimes. We develop an algorithm based on \emph{Follow-The-Regularized-Leader} (FTRL) with Tsallis entropy, referred to as the $\alpha$-\emph{Linear-Contextual (LC)-Tsallis-INF}. We show that its regret is at most $O(\log(T))$ in the stochastic regime under the assumption that the suboptimality gap is uniformly bounded from below, and at most $O(\sqrt{T})$ in the adversarial regime. Furthermore, our regret analysis is extended to more general regimes characterized by the \emph{margin condition} with a parameter $\beta \in (1, \infty]$, which imposes a milder assumption on the suboptimality gap than in previous studies. We show that the proposed algorithm achieves $O\left(\log(T)^{\frac{1+\beta}{2+\beta}}T^{\frac{1}{2+\beta}}\right)$ regret under the margin condition.

Poster
Adaptive Extragradient Methods for Root-finding Problems under Relaxed Assumptions

Yang Luo, Michael J O'Neill

展开摘要

We develop a new class of self-tuning algorithms to solve a root-finding problem involving a Lipschitz continuous operator, with applications in convex optimization, minimax saddle point problems and variational inequalities. Our methods are adaptive to the unknown, problem specific parameters, such as the Lipschitz constant and the variance of the stochastic operator. Unlike prior work, our approach does not rely on restrictive assumptions, such as a bounded domain, boundedness of the operator or a light-tailed distribution. We prove a $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(N^{-1/2})$ average-iterate convergence rate of the restricted merit function under an affine noise assumption, matching the optimal rate up to log factors. In addition, we improve the convergence rate to $\mathcal{O}(N^{-1})$ under a strong growth condition, characterizing the field of cutting-edge machine learning models and matching the optimal rate for the \textit{deterministic regime}. Finally, we illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms through numerical experiments on saddle point problems. Our results suggest that the adaptive step sizes automatically take advantage of the structure of the noise and observe improved convergence in certain settings, such as when the strong growth condition holds. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first method for root-finding problems under mild assumptions that adapts to the structure of the noise to obtain an improved convergence rate.

Poster
Synthetic Potential Outcomes and Causal Mixture Identifiability

Bijan Mazaheri, Chandler Squires, Caroline Uhler

展开摘要

Heterogeneous data from multiple populations, sub-groups, or sources can be represented as a "mixture model" with a single latent class influencing all of the observed covariates. Heterogeneity can be resolved at different levels by grouping populations according to different notions of similarity. This paper proposes grouping with respect to the causal response of an intervention or perturbation on the system. This is distinct from previous notions, such as grouping by similar covariate values (e.g., clustering) or similar correlations between covariates (e.g., Gaussian mixture models). To solve the problem, we "synthetically sample" from a counterfactual distribution using higher-order multi-linear moments of the observable data. To understand how these ``causal mixtures'' fit in with more classical notions, we develop a hierarchy of mixture identifiability.

Poster
ROTI-GCV: Generalized Cross-Validation for right-ROTationally Invariant Data

Kevin Luo, Yufan Li, Pragya Sur

展开摘要

Two key tasks in high-dimensional regularized regression are tuning the regularization strength for accurate predictions and estimating the out-of-sample risk. It is known that the standard approach — $k$-fold cross-validation — is inconsistent in modern high-dimensional settings. While leave-one-out and generalized cross-validation remain consistent in some high-dimensional cases, they become inconsistent when samples are dependent or contain heavy-tailed covariates. As a first step towards modeling structured sample dependence and heavy tails, we use right-rotationally invariant covariate distributions — a crucial concept from compressed sensing. In the proportional asymptotics regime where the number of features and samples grow comparably, which is known to better reflect the empirical behavior in moderately sized datasets, we introduce a new framework, ROTI-GCV, for reliably performing cross-validation under these challenging conditions. Along the way, we propose new estimators for the signal-to-noise ratio and noise variance. We conduct experiments that demonstrate the accuracy of our approach in a variety of synthetic and semi-synthetic settings.

Poster
Global Optimization of Gaussian Process Acquisition Functions Using a Piecewise-Linear Kernel Approximation

Yilin Xie, Shiqiang Zhang, Joel Paulson, Calvin Tsay

展开摘要

Bayesian optimization relies on iteratively constructing and optimizing an acquisition function. The latter turns out to be a challenging, non-convex optimization problem itself. Despite the relative importance of this step, most algorithms employ sampling- or gradient-based methods, which do not provably converge to global optima. This work investigates mixed-integer programming (MIP) as a paradigm for *global* acquisition function optimization. Specifically, our Piecewise-linear Kernel Mixed Integer Quadratic Programming (PK-MIQP) formulation introduces a piecewise-linear approximation for Gaussian process kernels and admits a corresponding MIQP representation for acquisition functions. The proposed method is applicable to uncertainty-based acquisition functions for any stationary or dot-product kernel. We analyze the theoretical regret bounds of the proposed approximation, and empirically demonstrate the framework on synthetic functions, constrained benchmarks, and a hyperparameter tuning task.

Poster
Provable Benefits of Task-Specific Prompts for In-context Learning

Xiangyu Chang, Yingcong Li, Muti Kara, Samet Oymak, Amit Roy-Chowdhury

展开摘要

The in-context learning capabilities of modern language models have motivated a deeper mathematical understanding of sequence models. A line of recent work has shown that linear attention models can emulate projected gradient descent iterations to implicitly learn the task vector from the data provided in the context window. In this work, we consider a novel setting where the global task distribution can be partitioned into a union of conditional task distributions. We then examine the use of task-specific prompts and prediction heads for learning the prior information associated with the conditional task distribution using a one-layer attention model. Our results on loss landscape show that task-specific prompts facilitate a covariance-mean decoupling where prompt-tuning explains the conditional mean of the distribution whereas the variance is learned/explained through in-context learning. Incorporating task-specific head further aids this process by entirely decoupling estimation of mean and variance components. This covariance-mean perspective similarly explains how jointly training prompt and attention weights can provably help over fine-tuning after pretraining.

Poster
High Dimensional Bayesian Optimization using Lasso Variable Selection

Vu Viet Hoang, Hung The Tran, Sunil Gupta, Vu Nguyen

展开摘要

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a leading method for optimizing expensive black-box optimization and has been successfully applied across various scenarios. However, BO suffers from the curse of dimensionality, making it challenging to scale to high-dimensional problems. Existing work has adopted a variable selection strategy to select and optimize only a subset of variables iteratively. Although this approach can mitigate the high-dimensional challenge in BO, it still leads to sample inefficiency. To address this issue, we introduce a novel method that identifies important variables by estimating the length scales of Gaussian process kernels. Next, we construct an effective search region consisting of multiple subspaces and optimize the acquisition function within this region, focusing on only the important variables. We demonstrate that our proposed method achieves cumulative regret with a sublinear growth rate in the worst case while maintaining computational efficiency. Experiments on high-dimensional synthetic functions and real-world problems show that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance.

Poster
An Adaptive Method for Weak Supervision with Drifting Data

Alessio Mazzetto, Reza Esfandiarpoor, Akash Singirikonda, Eli Upfal, Stephen Bach

展开摘要

We introduce an adaptive method with formal quality guarantees for weak supervision in a non-stationary setting. Our goal is to infer the unknown labels of a sequence of data by using weak supervision sources that provide independent noisy signals of the correct classification for each data point. This setting includes crowdsourcing and programmatic weak supervision. We focus on the non-stationary case, where the accuracy of the weak supervision sources can drift over time, e.g., because of changes in the underlying data distribution. Due to the drift, older data could provide misleading information to infer the label of the current data point. Previous work relied on a priori assumptions on the magnitude of the drift to decide how much data to use from the past. In contrast, our algorithm does not require any assumptions on the drift, and it adapts based on the input by dynamically varying its window size. In particular, at each step, our algorithm estimates the current accuracies of the weak supervision sources by identifying a window of past observations that guarantees a near-optimal minimization of the trade-off between the error due to the variance of the estimation and the error due to the drift. Experiments on synthetic and real-world labelers show that our approach adapts to the drift.

Poster
Learning Pareto manifolds in high dimensions: How can regularization help?

Tobias Wegel, Filip Kovačević, Alexandru Tifrea, Fanny Yang

展开摘要

Simultaneously addressing multiple objectives is becoming increasingly important in modern machine learning. At the same time, data is often high-dimensional and costly to label. For a single objective such as prediction risk, conventional regularization techniques are known to improve generalization when the data exhibits low-dimensional structure like sparsity. However, it is largely unexplored how to leverage this structure in the context of multi-objective learning (MOL) with multiple competing objectives. In this work, we discuss how the application of vanilla regularization approaches can fail, and propose a two-stage MOL framework that can successfully leverage low-dimensional structure. We demonstrate its effectiveness experimentally for multi-distribution learning and fairness-risk trade-offs.

Poster
Invertible Fourier Neural Operators for Tackling Both Forward and Inverse Problems

Da Long, Zhitong Xu, Qiwei Yuan, Yin Yang, Shandian Zhe

展开摘要

Fourier Neural Operator (FNO) is a powerful and popular operator learning method. However, FNO is mainly used in forward prediction, yet a great many applications rely on solving inverse problems. In this paper, we propose an invertible Fourier Neural Operator (iFNO) for jointly tackling the forward and inverse problems. We developed a series of invertible Fourier blocks in the latent channel space to share the model parameters, exchange the information, and mutually regularize the learning for the bi-directional tasks. We integrated a variational auto-encoder to capture the intrinsic structures within the input space and to enable posterior inference so as to mitigate challenges of illposedness, data shortage, noises that are common in inverse problems. We proposed a three-step process to combine the invertible blocks and the VAE component for effective training. The evaluations on seven benchmark forward and inverse tasks have demonstrated the advantages of our approach. The code is available at https://github.com/BayesianAIGroup/iFNO.

Poster
Multi-agent Multi-armed Bandit Regret Complexity and Optimality

Mengfan Xu, Diego Klabjan

展开摘要

Multi-armed Bandit motivates methods with provable upper bounds on regret and also the counterpart lower bounds have been extensively studied in this context. Recently, Multi-agent Multi-armed Bandit has gained significant traction in various domains, where individual clients face bandit problems in a distributed manner and the objective is the overall system performance, typically measured by regret. While efficient algorithms with regret upper bounds have emerged, limited attention has been given to the corresponding regret lower bounds, except for a recent lower bound for adversarial settings, which, however, has a gap with let known upper bounds. To this end, we herein provide the first comprehensive study on regret lower bounds across different settings and establish their tightness. Specifically, when the graphs exhibit good connectivity properties and the rewards are stochastically distributed, we demonstrate a lower bound of order $O(\log T)$ for instance-dependent bounds and $\sqrt{T}$ for mean-gap independent bounds which are tight. Assuming adversarial rewards, we establish a lower bound $O(T^{\frac{2}{3}})$ for connected graphs, thereby bridging the gap between the lower and upper bound in the prior work. We also show a linear regret lower bound when the graph is disconnected. These lower bounds are made possible through our newly constructed instances. In the numerical study, we assess the performance of various algorithms on these hard instances. While previous works have explored these settings with upper bounds, we provide a thorough study on tight lower bounds.

Poster
Online Assortment and Price Optimization Under Contextual Choice Models

Yigit Efe Erginbas, Thomas Courtade, Kannan Ramchandran

展开摘要

We consider an assortment selection and pricing problem in which a seller has $N$ different items available for sale. In each round, the seller observes a $d$-dimensional contextual preference information vector for the user, and offers to the user an assortment of $K$ items at prices chosen by the seller. The user selects at most one of the products from the offered assortment according to a multinomial logit choice model whose parameters are unknown. The seller observes which, if any, item is chosen at the end of each round, with the goal of maximizing cumulative revenue over a selling horizon of length $T$. For this problem, we propose an algorithm that learns from user feedback and achieves a revenue regret of order $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(d \sqrt{K T} / L_0 )$ where $L_0$ is the minimum price sensitivity parameter. We also obtain a lower bound of order $\Omega(d \sqrt{T}/ L_0)$ for the regret achievable by any algorithm.

Poster
Time-varying Gaussian Process Bandits with Unknown Prior

Juliusz Ziomek, Masaki Adachi, Michael A Osborne

展开摘要

Bayesian optimisation requires fitting a Gaussian process model, which in turn requires specifying prior on the unknown black-box function---most of the theoretical literature assumes this prior is known. However, it is common to have more than one possible prior for a given black-box function, for example suggested by domain experts with differing opinions. In some cases, the type-II maximum likelihood estimator for selecting prior enjoys the consistency guarantee, but it does not universally apply to all types of priors. If the problem is stationary, one could rely on the Regret Balancing scheme to conduct the optimisation, but in the case of time-varying problems, such a scheme cannot be used. To address this gap in existing research, we propose a novel algorithm, PE-GP-UCB, which is capable of solving time-varying Bayesian optimisation problems even without the exact knowledge of the function's prior. The algorithm relies on the fact that either the observed function values are consistent with some of the priors, in which case it is easy to reject the wrong priors, or the observations are consistent with all candidate priors, in which case it does not matter which prior our model relies on. We provide a regret bound on the proposed algorithm. Finally, we empirically evaluate our algorithm on toy and real-world time-varying problems and show that it outperforms the maximum likelihood estimator, fully Bayesian treatment of unknown prior and Regret Balancing.

Poster
No-Regret Bayesian Optimization with Stochastic Observation Failures

Shogo Iwazaki, Tomohiko Tanabe, Mitsuru Irie, Shion Takeno, Kota Matsui, Yu Inatsu

展开摘要

We study Bayesian optimization problems where observation of the objective function fails stochastically, e.g., synthesis failures in materials development. For this problem, although several heuristic methods have been proposed, they do not have theoretical guarantees and sometimes deteriorate in practice. We propose two algorithms that have a trade-off relation between regret bounds and practical performance. The first one is the first no-regret algorithm for this problem. The second one shows superior practical performance; however, we need some modification of the algorithm to obtain a no-regret guarantee, which is slightly worse than the first one. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods in numerical experiments, including the simulation function motivated by quasi-crystal synthesis.

Poster
Post-processing for Fair Regression via Explainable SVD

Zhiqun Zuo, Ding Zhu, Mohammad Mahdi Khalili

展开摘要

This paper presents a post-processing algorithm for training fair neural network regression models that satisfy statistical parity, utilizing an explainable singular value decomposition (SVD) of the weight matrix. We propose a linear transformation of the weight matrix, whereby the singular values derived from the SVD of the transformed matrix directly correspond to the differences in the first and second moments of the output distributions across two groups. Consequently, we can convert the fairness constraints into constraints on the singular values. We analytically solve the problem of finding the optimal weights under these constraints. Experimental validation on various datasets demonstrates that our method achieves a similar or superior fairness-accuracy trade-off compared to the baselines without using the sensitive attribute at the inference time.

Poster
Optimal Multi-Objective Best Arm Identification with Fixed Confidence

Zhirui Chen, P. N. Karthik, Yeow Meng Chee, Vincent Y. F. Tan

展开摘要

We consider a multi-armed bandit setting with finitely many arms, in which each arm yields an $M$-dimensional vector reward upon selection. We assume that the reward of each dimension (a.k.a. {\em objective}) is generated independently of the others. The best arm of any given objective is the arm with the largest component of mean corresponding to the objective. The end goal is to identify the best arm of {\em every} objective in the shortest (expected) time subject to an upper bound on the probability of error (i.e., fixed-confidence regime). We establish a problem-dependent lower bound on the limiting growth rate of the expected stopping time, in the limit of vanishing error probabilities. This lower bound, we show, is characterised by a max-min optimisation problem that is computationally expensive to solve at each time step. We propose an algorithm that uses the novel idea of {\em surrogate proportions} to sample the arms at each time step, eliminating the need to solve the max-min optimisation problem at each step. We demonstrate theoretically that our algorithm is asymptotically optimal. In addition, we provide extensive empirical studies to substantiate the efficiency of our algorithm. While existing works on pure exploration with multi-objective multi-armed bandits predominantly focus on {\em Pareto front identification}, our work fills the gap in the literature by conducting a formal investigation of the multi-objective best arm identification problem.

Poster
Clustering Context in Off-Policy Evaluation

Daniel Guzman Olivares, Philipp Schmidt, Jacek Golebiowski, Artur Bekasov

展开摘要

Off-policy evaluation can leverage logged data to estimate the effectiveness of new policies in e-commerce, search engines, media streaming services, or automatic diagnostic tools in healthcare. However, the performance of baseline off-policy estimators like IPS deteriorates when the logging policy significantly differs from the evaluation policy. Recent work proposes sharing information across similar actions to mitigate this problem. In this work, we propose an alternative estimator that shares information across similar contexts using clustering. We study the theoretical properties of the proposed estimator, characterizing its bias and variance under different conditions. We also compare the performance of the proposed estimator and existing approaches in various synthetic problems, as well as a real-world recommendation dataset. Our experimental results confirm that clustering contexts improves estimation accuracy, especially in deficient information settings.

Poster
Cost-aware simulation-based inference

Ayush Bharti, Daolang Huang, Samuel Kaski, Francois-Xavier Briol

展开摘要

Simulation-based inference (SBI) is rapidly becoming the preferred framework for estimating parameters of intractable models in science and engineering. A significant challenge in this context is the large computational cost of simulating data from complex models, and the fact that this cost often depends on parameter values. We therefore propose *cost-aware SBI methods* which can significantly reduce the cost of existing sampling-based SBI methods, such as neural SBI and approximate Bayesian computation. This is achieved through a combination of rejection and self-normalised importance sampling, which significantly reduces the number of expensive simulations needed. Our approach is studied extensively on models from epidemiology to telecommunications engineering, where we obtain significant reductions in the overall cost of inference.

Poster