NeurIPS 2025 Papers

Occupancy prediction infers fine-grained 3D geometry and semantics from camera images of the surrounding environment, making it a critical perception task for autonomous driving. Existing methods either adopt dense grids as scene representation which is difficult to scale to high resolution, or learn the entire scene using a single set of sparse queries, which is insufficient to handle the various object characteristics. In this paper, we present ODG, a hierarchical dual sparse Gaussian representation to effectively capture complex scene dynamics. Building upon the observation that driving scenes can be universally decomposed into static and dynamic counterparts, we define dual Gaussian queries to better model the diverse scene objects. We utilize a hierarchical Gaussian transformer to predict the occupied voxel centers and semantic classes along with the Gaussian parameters. Leveraging the real-time rendering capability of 3D Gaussian Splatting, we also impose rendering supervision with available depth and semantic map annotations injecting pixel-level alignment to boost occupancy learning. Extensive experiments on the Occ3D-nuScenes and Occ3D-Waymo benchmarks demonstrate our proposed method sets new state-of-the-art results while maintaining low inference cost.

Precise, generalizable subject-agnostic seizure prediction (SASP) remains a fundamental challenge due to the intrinsic complexity and significant spectral variability of electrophysiologial signals across individuals and recording modalities. We propose \model{FAPEX}, a novel architecture that introduces a learnable \emph{fractional neural frame operator} (FrNFO) for adaptive time–frequency decomposition. Unlike conventional models that exhibit spectral bias toward low frequencies, our FrNFO employs fractional-order convolutions to capture both high and low-frequency dynamics, achieving approximately $10\%$ improvement in F1-score and sensitivity over state-of-the-art baselines. The FrNFO enables the extraction of \emph{instantaneous phase and amplitude representations} that are particularly informative for preictal biomarker discovery and enhance out-of-distribution generalization. \model{FAPEX} further integrates structural state-space modeling and channelwise attention, allowing it to handle heterogeneous electrode montages. Evaluated across 12 benchmarks spanning species (human, rat, dog, macaque) and modalities (Scalp‑EEG, SEEG, ECoG, LFP), \model{FAPEX} consistently outperforms 23 supervised and 10 self-supervised baselines under nested cross-validation, with gains of up to $15\%$ in sensitivity on complex cross-domain scenarios. It further demonstrates superior performance in several external validation cohorts. To our knowledge, these establish \model{FAPEX} as the first epilepsy model to show consistent superiority in SASP, offering a promising solution for discovering epileptic biomarker evidence supporting the existence of a distinct and identifiable preictal state for and clinical translation.

Accident anticipation aims to predict potential collisions in an online manner, enabling timely alerts to enhance road safety. Existing methods typically predict frame-level risk scores as indicators of hazard. However, these approaches rely on ambiguous binary supervision—labeling all frames in accident videos as positive—despite the fact that risk varies continuously over time, leading to unreliable learning and false alarms. To address this, we propose a novel paradigm that shifts the prediction target from current-frame risk scoring to directly estimating accident scores at multiple future time steps (e.g., 0.1s–2.0s ahead), leveraging precisely annotated accident timestamps as supervision. Our method employs a snippet-level encoder to jointly model spatial and temporal dynamics, and a Transformer-based temporal decoder that predicts accident scores for all future horizons simultaneously using dedicated temporal queries. Furthermore, we introduce a refined evaluation protocol that reports Time-to-Accident (TTA) and recall—evaluated at multiple pre-accident intervals (0.5s, 1.0s, and 1.5s)—only when the false alarm rate (FAR) remains within an acceptable range, ensuring practical relevance. Experiments show that our method achieves superior performance in both recall and TTA under realistic FAR constraints. Project page: https://happytianhao.github.io/TOP/

Prediction with expert advice serves as a fundamental model in online learning and sequential decision-making. However, in many real-world settings, this classical model proves insufficient as the feedback available to the decision-maker is often subject to noise, errors, or communication constraints. This paper provides fundamental limits on performance, quantified by the regret, in the case when the feedback is corrupted by an additive noise. Our general analysis achieves sharp regret bounds for canonical examples of such additive noise as the Gaussian distribution, the uniform distribution, and a general noise with a log-concave density. This analysis demonstrates how different noise characteristics affect regret bounds and identifies how the regret fundamentally scales as a function of the properties of the noise distribution.

We consider the problem of conformal prediction under covariate shift. Given labeled data from a source domain and unlabeled data from a covariate shifted target domain, we seek to construct prediction sets with valid marginal coverage in the target domain. Most existing methods require estimating the unknown likelihood ratio function, which can be prohibitive for high-dimensional data such as images. To address this challenge, we introduce the likelihood ratio regularized quantile regression (LR-QR) algorithm, which combines the pinball loss with a novel choice of regularization in order to construct a threshold function without directly estimating the unknown likelihood ratio. We show that the LR-QR method has coverage at the desired level in the target domain, up to a small error term that we can control. Our proofs draw on a novel analysis of coverage via stability bounds from learning theory. Our experiments demonstrate that the LR-QR algorithm outperforms existing methods on high-dimensional prediction tasks, including a regression task for the Communities and Crime dataset, an image classification task from the WILDS repository, and an LLM question-answering task on the MMLU benchmark.

Occupancy prediction aims to estimate the 3D spatial distribution of occupied regions along with their corresponding semantic labels. Existing vision-based methods perform well on daytime benchmarks but struggle in nighttime scenarios due to limited visibility and challenging lighting conditions. To address these challenges, we propose LIAR, a novel framework that learns illumination-affined representations. LIAR first introduces Selective Low-light Image Enhancement (SLLIE), which leverages the illumination priors from daytime scenes to adaptively determine whether a nighttime image is genuinely dark or sufficiently well-lit, enabling more targeted global enhancement. Building on the illumination maps generated by SLLIE, LIAR further incorporates two illumination-aware components: 2D Illumination-guided Sampling (2D-IGS) and 3D Illumination-driven Projection (3D-IDP), to respectively tackle local underexposure and overexposure. Specifically, 2D-IGS modulates feature sampling positions according to illumination maps, assigning larger offsets to darker regions and smaller ones to brighter regions, thereby alleviating feature degradation in underexposed areas. Subsequently, 3D-IDP enhances semantic understanding in overexposed regions by constructing illumination intensity fields and supplying refined residual queries to the BEV context refinement process. Extensive experiments on both real and synthetic datasets demonstrate the superior performance of LIAR under challenging nighttime scenarios. The source code and pretrained models are available [here](https://github.com/yanzq95/LIAR).

We introduce *Backward Conformal Prediction*, a method that guarantees conformal coverage while providing flexible control over the size of prediction sets. Unlike standard conformal prediction, which fixes the coverage level and allows the conformal set size to vary, our approach defines a rule that constrains how prediction set sizes behave based on the observed data, and adapts the coverage level accordingly. Our method builds on two key foundations: (i) recent results by Gauthier et al. [2025] on post-hoc validity using e-values, which ensure marginal coverage of the form $\mathbb{P}(Y_{\rm test} \in \hat C_n^{\tilde{\alpha}}(X_{\rm test})) \ge 1 - \mathbb{E}[\tilde{\alpha}]$ up to a first-order Taylor approximation for any data-dependent miscoverage $\tilde{\alpha}$, and (ii) a novel leave-one-out estimator $\hat{\alpha}^{\rm LOO}$ of the marginal miscoverage $\mathbb{E}[\tilde{\alpha}]$ based on the calibration set, ensuring that the theoretical guarantees remain computable in practice. This approach is particularly useful in applications where large prediction sets are impractical such as medical diagnosis. We provide theoretical results and empirical evidence supporting the validity of our method, demonstrating that it maintains computable coverage guarantees while ensuring interpretable, well-controlled prediction set sizes.