NeurIPS 2025 Papers

The prediction of learning curves for Natural Language Processing (NLP) models enables informed decision-making to meet specific performance objectives, while reducing computational overhead and lowering the costs associated with dataset acquisition and curation. In this work, we formulate the prediction task as a multitask learning problem, where each task’s data is modelled as being organized within a two-layer hierarchy. To model the shared information and dependencies across tasks and hierarchical levels, we employ latent variable multi-output Gaussian Processes, enabling to account for task correlations and supporting zero-shot prediction of learning curves (LCs). We demonstrate that this approach facilitates the development of probabilistic scaling laws at lower costs. Applying an active learning strategy, LCs can be queried to reduce predictive uncertainty and provide predictions close to ground truth scaling laws. We validate our framework on three small-scale NLP datasets with up to $30$ LCs. These are obtained from nanoGPT models, from bilingual translation using mBART and Transformer models, and from multilingual translation using M2M100 models of varying sizes.

A recent study has proposed the ``Master Key Filters Hypothesis" for convolutional neural network filters. This paper extends this hypothesis by radically constraining its scope to a single set of just 8 universal filters that depthwise separable convolutional networks inherently converge to. While conventional DS-CNNs employ thousands of distinct trained filters, our analysis reveals these filters are predominantly linear shifts (ax+b) of our discovered universal set. Through systematic unsupervised search, we extracted these fundamental patterns across different architectures and datasets. Remarkably, networks initialized with these 8 unique frozen filters achieve over 80\% ImageNet accuracy, and even outperform models with thousands of trainable parameters when applied to smaller datasets. The identified master key filters closely match Difference of Gaussians (DoGs), Gaussians, and their derivatives, structures that are not only fundamental to classical image processing but also strikingly similar to receptive fields in mammalian visual systems. Our findings provide compelling evidence that depthwise convolutional layers naturally gravitate toward this fundamental set of spatial operators regardless of task or architecture. This work offers new insights for understanding generalization and transfer learning through the universal language of these master key filters.

Marked Temporal Point Process (MTPP) has been well studied to model the event distribution in marked event streams, which can be used to predict the mark and arrival time of the next event. However, existing studies overlook that the distribution of event marks is highly imbalanced in many real-world applications, with some marks being frequent but others rare. The imbalance poses a significant challenge to the performance of the next event prediction, especially for events of rare marks. To address this issue, we propose a thresholding method, which learns thresholds to tune the mark probability normalized by the mark's prior probability to optimize mark prediction, rather than predicting the mark directly based on the mark probability as in existing studies. In conjunction with this method, we predict the mark first and then the time. In particular, we develop a novel neural Marked Temporal Point Process (MTPP) model to support effective time sampling and estimation of mark probability without computationally expensive numerical improper integration. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate the superior performance of our solution against various baselines for the next event mark and time prediction. The code is available at https://github.com/undes1red/IFNMTPP.

Estimating associations between spatial covariates and responses — rather than merely predicting responses — is central to environmental science, epidemiology, and economics. For instance, public health officials might be interested in whether air pollution has a strictly positive association with a health outcome, and the magnitude of any effect. Standard machine learning methods often provide accurate predictions but offer limited insight into covariate-response relationships. And we show that existing methods for constructing confidence (or credible) intervals for associations can fail to provide nominal coverage in the face of model misspecification and nonrandom locations — despite both being essentially always present in spatial problems. We introduce a method that constructs valid frequentist confidence intervals for associations in spatial settings. Our method requires minimal assumptions beyond a form of spatial smoothness and a homoskedastic Gaussian error assumption. In particular, we do not require model correctness or covariate overlap between training and target locations. Our approach is the first to guarantee nominal coverage in this setting and outperforms existing techniques in both real and simulated experiments. Our confidence intervals are valid in finite samples when the noise of the Gaussian error is known, and we provide an asymptotically consistent estimation procedure for this noise variance when it is unknown.

We propose a generalized score-based diffusion framework for learning multivariate Gaussian mixture models with homoscedastic or heteroscedastic noise. Our goal is to nonparametrically estimate the latent location distribution and denoise the observations. Departing from the conventional maximum likelihood approach, we reinterpret each observation as a temporal slice of a family of stochastic diffusion processes. This modeling choice enables a principled characterization of the additive noise structure and supports a multi-step denoising procedure grounded in reverse-time dynamics. We introduce a score-based objective that explicitly models the latent distribution and accommodates observation-specific noise covariances. Theoretically, we establish that the score estimation error with $n$ independent observations achieves a near-parametric error rate of $\frac{\mathrm{polylog}(n)}{n}$, improving upon existing results in the diffusion literature. Empirically, our method outperforms the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator in both density estimation and denoising fidelity, especially in high-dimensional settings. These findings suggest a promising direction for integrating nonparametric empirical Bayes with diffusion-based generative modeling for latent structure recovery.

Self-distillation (SD), a technique where a model improves itself using its own predictions, has attracted attention as a simple yet powerful approach in machine learning. Despite its widespread use, the mechanisms underlying its effectiveness remain unclear. In this study, we investigate the efficacy of hyperparameter-tuned multi-stage SD with a linear classifier for binary classification on noisy Gaussian mixture data. For the analysis, we employ the replica method from statistical physics. Our findings reveal that the primary driver of SD's performance improvement is denoising through hard pseudo-labels, with the most notable gains observed in moderately sized datasets. We also identify two practical heuristics to enhance SD: early stopping that limits the number of stages, which is broadly effective, and bias parameter fixing, which helps under label imbalance. To empirically validate our theoretical findings derived from our toy model, we conduct additional experiments on CIFAR-10 classification using pretrained ResNet backbone. These results provide both theoretical and practical insights, advancing our understanding and application of SD in noisy settings.

3D reconstruction from in-the-wild images remains a challenging task due to inconsistent lighting conditions and transient distractors. Existing methods typically rely on heuristic strategies to handle the low-quality training data, which often struggle to produce stable and consistent reconstructions, frequently resulting in visual artifacts. In this work, we propose Asymmetric Dual 3DGS, a novel framework that leverages the stochastic nature of these artifacts: they tend to vary across different training runs due to minor randomness. Specifically, our method trains two 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) models in parallel, enforcing a consistency constraint that encourages convergence on reliable scene geometry while suppressing inconsistent artifacts. To prevent the two models from collapsing into similar failure modes due to confirmation bias, we introduce a divergent masking strategy that applies two complementary masks: a multi-cue adaptive mask and a self-supervised soft mask, which leads to an asymmetric training process of the two models, reducing shared error modes. In addition, to improve the efficiency of model training, we introduce a lightweight variant called Dynamic EMA Proxy, which replaces one of the two models with a dynamically updated Exponential Moving Average (EMA) proxy, and employs an alternating masking strategy to preserve divergence. Extensive experiments on challenging real-world datasets demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms existing approaches while achieving high efficiency. Codes and trained models will be released.

3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) has emerged as a powerful technique for radiance field rendering, but it typically requires millions of redundant Gaussian primitives, overwhelming memory and rendering budgets. Existing compaction approaches address this by pruning Gaussians based on heuristic importance scores, without global fidelity guarantee. To bridge this gap, we propose a novel optimal transport perspective that casts 3DGS compaction as global Gaussian mixture reduction. Specifically, we first minimize the composite transport divergence over a KD-tree partition to produce a compact geometric representation, and then decouple appearance from geometry by fine-tuning color and opacity attributes with far fewer Gaussian primitives. Experiments on benchmark datasets show that our method (i) yields negligible loss in rendering quality (PSNR, SSIM, LPIPS) compared to vanilla 3DGS with only 10\% Gaussians; and (ii) consistently outperforms state-of-the-art 3DGS compaction techniques. Notably, our method is applicable to any stage of vanilla or accelerated 3DGS pipelines, providing an efficient and agnostic pathway to lightweight neural rendering.

Recent advances in 3D Gaussian diffusion models suffer from time-intensive denoising and post-denoising processing due to the massive number of Gaussian primitives, resulting in slow generation and limited scalability along sampling trajectories. To improve the efficiency of 3D diffusion models, we propose $\textbf{TRIM}$ ($\textbf{T}$rajectory $\textbf{R}$eduction and $\textbf{I}$nstance $\textbf{M}$ask denoising), a post-training approach that incorporates both temporal and spatial trimming strategies, to accelerate inference without compromising output quality while supporting the inference-time scaling for Gaussian diffusion models. Instead of scaling denoising trajectories in a costly end-to-end manner, we develop a lightweight selector model to evaluate latent Gaussian primitives derived from multiple sampled noises, enabling early trajectory reduction by selecting candidates with high-quality potential. Furthermore, we introduce instance mask denoising to prune learnable Gaussian primitives by filtering out redundant background regions, reducing inference computation at each denoising step. Extensive experiments and analysis demonstrate that TRIM significantly improves both the efficiency and quality of 3D generation.

We present Orientation-anchored Gaussian Splatting (OriGS), a novel framework for high-quality 4D reconstruction from casually captured monocular videos. While recent advances extend 3D Gaussian Splatting to dynamic scenes via various motion anchors, such as graph nodes or spline control points, they often rely on low-rank assumptions and fall short in modeling complex, region-specific deformations inherent to unconstrained dynamics. OriGS addresses this by introducing a hyperdimensional representation grounded in scene orientation. We first estimate a Global Orientation Field that propagates principal forward directions across space and time, serving as stable structural guidance for dynamic modeling. Built upon this, we propose Orientation-aware Hyper-Gaussian, a unified formulation that embeds time, space, geometry, and orientation into a coherent probabilistic state. This enables inferring region-specific deformation through principled conditioned slicing, adaptively capturing diverse local dynamics in alignment with global motion intent. Experiments demonstrate the superior reconstruction fidelity of OriGS over mainstream methods in challenging real-world dynamic scenes.

This paper addresses the Bayesian optimization problem (also referred to as the Bayesian setting of the Gaussian process bandit), where the learner seeks to minimize the regret under a function drawn from a known Gaussian process (GP). Under a Mat\'ern kernel with some extent of smoothness, we show that the Gaussian process upper confidence bound (GP-UCB) algorithm achieves $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{T})$ cumulative regret with high probability. Furthermore, our analysis yields $O(\sqrt{T \ln^2 T})$ regret under a squared exponential kernel. These results fill the gap between the existing regret upper bound of GP-UCB and the current best upper bound provided by Scarlett [2018]. The key idea in our proof is to capture the concentration behavior of the input sequence realized by GP-UCB, enabling us to handle GP's information gain in a refined manner.

In modern theoretical analyses of neural networks, the infinite-width limit is often invoked to justify Gaussian approximations of neuron preactivations (e.g., via neural network Gaussian processes or Tensor Programs). However, these Gaussian-based asymptotic theories have so far been unable to capture the behavior of attention layers, except under special regimes such as infinitely many heads or tailored scaling schemes. In this paper, leveraging the Tensor Programs framework, we rigorously identify the infinite-width limit distribution of variables within a single attention layer under realistic architectural dimensionality and standard $1/\sqrt{n}$-scaling with $n$ dimensionality. We derive the exact form of this limit law without resorting to infinite-head approximations or tailored scalings, demonstrating that it departs fundamentally from Gaussianity. This limiting distribution exhibits non-Gaussianity from a hierarchical structure, being Gaussian conditional on the random similarity scores. Numerical experiments validate our theoretical predictions, confirming the effectiveness of our theory at finite width and accurate description of finite-head attentions. Beyond characterizing a standalone attention layer, our findings lay the groundwork for developing a unified theory of deep Transformer architectures in the infinite-width regime.

In-the-wild photo collections often contain limited volumes of imagery and exhibit multiple appearances, e.g., taken at different times of day or seasons, posing significant challenges to scene reconstruction and novel view synthesis. Although recent adaptations of Neural Radiance Field (NeRF) and 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) have improved in these areas, they tend to oversmooth and are prone to overfitting. In this paper, we present MS-GS, a novel framework designed with \textbf{M}ulti-appearance capabilities in \textbf{S}parse-view scenarios using 3D\textbf{GS}. To address the lack of support due to sparse initializations, our approach is built on the geometric priors elicited from monocular depth estimations. The key lies in extracting and utilizing local semantic regions with a Structure-from-Motion (SfM) points anchored algorithm for reliable alignment and geometry cues. Then, to introduce multi-view constraints, we propose a series of geometry-guided supervision steps at virtual views in pixel and feature levels to encourage 3D consistency and reduce overfitting. We also introduce a dataset and an in-the-wild experiment setting to set up more realistic benchmarks. We demonstrate that MS-GS achieves photorealistic renderings under various challenging sparse-view and multi-appearance conditions, and outperforms existing approaches significantly across different datasets.

We introduce *BecomingLit*, a novel method for reconstructing relightable, high-resolution head avatars that can be rendered from novel viewpoints at interactive rates. Therefore, we propose a new low-cost light stage capture setup, tailored specifically towards capturing faces. Using this setup, we collect a novel dataset consisting of diverse multi-view sequences of numerous subjects under varying illumination conditions and facial expressions. By leveraging our new dataset, we introduce a new relightable avatar representation based on 3D Gaussian primitives that we animate with a parametric head model and an expression-dependent dynamics module. We propose a new hybrid neural shading approach, combining a neural diffuse BRDF with an analytical specular term. Our method reconstructs disentangled materials from our dynamic light stage recordings and enables all-frequency relighting of our avatars with both point lights and environment maps. In addition, our avatars can easily be animated and controlled from monocular videos. We validate our approach in extensive experiments on our dataset, where we consistently outperform existing state-of-the-art methods in relighting and reenactment by a significant margin.

Low-rank recurrent neural networks (RNNs) provide a powerful framework for characterizing how neural systems solve complex cognitive tasks. However, fitting and interpreting these networks remains an important open problem. In this paper, we develop new methods for efficiently fitting low-rank RNNs in ''teacher-training'' settings. In particular, we build upon the neural engineering framework (NEF), in which RNNs are viewed as approximating an ordinary differential equation (ODE) of interest using a set of random nonlinear basis functions. This view provides geometric insight into how the choice of neural nonlinearity (e.g. tanh, ReLU) and the distribution of model parameters affects an RNN's representational capacity. We adapt this framework for online training and demonstrate better performance with significantly smaller networks compared to FORCE. Additionally, we outperform backpropagation-trained networks of similar size, while requiring substantially less training time. Next, we ask: how many neurons---and what distribution over their parameters---are needed to approximate a given dynamical system? To address this, we introduce methods for finding the smallest low-rank RNN to approximate a given dynamical system using an extension of orthogonal matching pursuit (OMP). We then consider infinite unit low-rank RNNs, which converge to a Gaussian Process (GP) over ODEs. In particular, we show that we can optimize the distribution over RNN parameters using the marginal likelihood under the equivalent GP covariance function---which can be computed in closed form for particular choices of nonlinearity. This results in substantially better training performance even for finite low-rank RNNs. Finally, we describe active learning methods for low-rank RNNs, which speed up training through the selection of maximally informative activity patterns.

Recent advances in false discovery rate (FDR)-controlled feature selection methods have improved reliability by effectively limiting false positives, making them well-suited for complex applications. A popular FDR-controlled framework called data splitting uses the "mirror statistics" to select features. However, we find that the unit variance assumption on mirror statistics could potentially limit the feature selection power. To address this, we generalize the mirror statistics in the Gaussian mirror framework and introduce a new approach called "generalized Gaussian mirror" ($\text{G}^2\text{M}$), which adaptively learns the variance and forms new test statistics. We demonstrate both theoretically and empirically that the proposed test statistics achieve higher power than those of Gaussian mirror and data splitting. Comparisons with other FDR-controlled frameworks on synthetic, semi-synthetic, and real datasets highlight the superior performance of the $\text{G}^2\text{M}$ method in achieving higher power while maintaining FDR control. These findings suggest the potential for the $\text{G}^2\text{M}$ method for practical applications in real-world problems. Code is available in https://github.com/skyve2012/G2M.

Motion in the real world takes place in 3D space. Existing Frame Interpolation methods often estimate global receptive fields in 2D frame space. Due to the limitations of 2D space, these global receptive fields are limited, which makes it difficult to match object correspondences between frames, resulting in sub-optimal performance when handling large-motion scenarios. In this paper, we introduce a novel pipeline for exploring object correspondences based on differential surface theory. The differential surface coordinate system provides a better representation of the real world, enabling effective exploration of object correspondences. Specifically, the pipeline first transforms an input pair of video frames from the image coordinate system to the differential surface coordinate system. Subsequently, within this coordinate system, object correspondences are explored based on surface geometric properties and the surface uniqueness theorem. Experimental findings showcase that our method attains state-of-the-art performance across large motion benchmarks. Our method demonstrates the state-of-the-art performance on these VFI subsets with large motion.

Schrodinger Bridges (SBs) are diffusion processes that steer, in finite time, a given initial distribution to another final one while minimizing a suitable cost functional. Although various methods for computing SBs have recently been proposed in the literature, most of these approaches require computationally expensive training schemes, even for solving low-dimensional problems. In this work, we propose an analytic parametrization of a set of feasible policies for steering the distribution of a dynamical system from one Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) to another. Instead of relying on standard non-convex optimization techniques, the optimal policy within the set can be approximated as the solution of a low-dimensional linear program whose dimension scales linearly with the number of components in each mixture. The proposed method generalizes naturally to more general classes of dynamical systems, such as controllable linear time-varying systems, enabling efficient solutions to multi-marginal momentum SBs between GMMs, a challenging distribution interpolation problem. We showcase the potential of this approach in low-to-moderate dimensional problems such as image-to-image translation in the latent space of an autoencoder, learning of cellular dynamics using multi-marginal momentum SBs, and various other examples. The implementation is publicly available at https://github.com/georgeRapa/GMMflow.

Federated Learning has gained traction in privacy-sensitive collaborative environments, with local SGD emerging as a key optimization method in decentralized settings. While its convergence properties are well-studied, asymptotic statistical guarantees beyond convergence remain limited. In this paper, we present two generalized Gaussian approximation results for local SGD and explore their implications. First, we prove a Berry-Esseen theorem for the final local SGD iterates, enabling valid multiplier bootstrap procedures. Second, motivated by robustness considerations, we introduce two distinct time-uniform Gaussian approximations for the entire trajectory of local SGD. The time-uniform approximations support Gaussian bootstrap-based tests for detecting adversarial attacks. Extensive simulations are provided to support our theoretical results.