NeurIPS 2025 Papers

Efficient neural networks are essential for scaling machine learning models to real-time applications and resource-constrained environments. Fully-connected feedforward layers (FFLs) introduce computation and parameter count bottlenecks within neural network architectures. To address this challenge, in this work, we propose a new class of dense layers that generalize standard fully-connected feedforward layers, $\textbf{E}$fficient, $\textbf{U}$nified and $\textbf{Gen}$eral dense layers (EUGens). EUGens leverage random features to approximate standard FFLs and go beyond them by incorporating a direct dependence on the input norms in their computations. The proposed layers unify existing efficient FFL extensions and improve efficiency by reducing inference complexity from quadratic to linear time. They also lead to $\textbf{the first}$ unbiased algorithms approximating FFLs with arbitrary polynomial activation functions. Furthermore, EuGens reduce the parameter count and computational overhead while preserving the expressive power and adaptability of FFLs. We also present a layer-wise knowledge transfer technique that bypasses backpropagation, enabling efficient adaptation of EUGens to pre-trained models. Empirically, we observe that integrating EUGens into Transformers and MLPs yields substantial improvements in inference speed (up to $\textbf{27}$\%) and memory efficiency (up to $\textbf{30}$\%) across a range of tasks, including image classification, language model pre-training, and 3D scene reconstruction. Overall, our results highlight the potential of EUGens for the scalable deployment of large-scale neural networks in real-world scenarios.

Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) offers a cost-effective solution for fine-tuning large language models (LLMs), but it often produces overconfident predictions in data-scarce few-shot settings. To address this issue, several classical statistical learning approaches have been repurposed for scalable uncertainty-aware LoRA fine-tuning. However, these approaches neglect how input characteristics affect the predictive uncertainty estimates. To address this limitation, we propose Contextual Low-Rank Adaptation (**C-LoRA**) as a novel uncertainty-aware and parameter efficient fine-tuning approach, by developing new lightweight LoRA modules contextualized to each input data sample to dynamically adapt uncertainty estimates. Incorporating data-driven contexts into the parameter posteriors, C-LoRA mitigates overfitting, achieves well-calibrated uncertainties, and yields robust predictions. Extensive experiments on LLaMA2-7B models demonstrate that C-LoRA consistently outperforms the state-of-the-art uncertainty-aware LoRA methods in both uncertainty quantification and model generalization. Ablation studies further confirm the critical role of our contextual modules in capturing sample-specific uncertainties. C-LoRA sets a new standard for robust, uncertainty-aware LLM fine-tuning in few-shot regimes. Although our experiments are limited to 7B models, our method is architecture-agnostic and, in principle, applies beyond this scale; studying its scaling to larger models remains an open problem. Our code is available at https://github.com/ahra99/c_lora.

When building a world model, a common assumption is that the environment has a single, unchanging underlying causal rule, like applying Newton's laws to every situation. However, in truly open-ended environments, the apparent causal mechanism may drift over time because the agent continually encounters novel contexts and operates within a limited observational window. This brings about a problem that, when building a world model, even subtle shifts in policy or environment states can alter the very observed causal mechanisms. In this work, we introduce the Meta-Causal Graph as world models for open-ended environments, a minimal unified representation that efficiently encodes the transformation rules governing how causal structures shift across different latent world states. A single Meta-Causal Graph is composed of multiple causal subgraphs, each triggered by meta state, which is in the latent state space. Building on this representation, we introduce a Causality-Seeking Agent whose objectives are to (1) identify the meta states that trigger each subgraph, (2) discover the corresponding causal relationships by agent curiosity-driven intervention policy, and (3) iteratively refine the Meta-Causal Graph through ongoing curiosity-driven exploration and agent experiences. Experiments on both synthetic tasks and a challenging robot arm manipulation task demonstrate that our method robustly captures shifts in causal dynamics and generalizes effectively to previously unseen contexts.

In this paper, we study the quantitative convergence of shallow neural networks trained via gradient descent to their associated Gaussian processes in the infinite-width limit. While previous work has established qualitative convergence under broad settings, precise, finite-width estimates remain limited, particularly during training. We provide explicit upper bounds on the quadratic Wasserstein distance between the network output and its Gaussian approximation at any training time $t \ge 0$, demonstrating polynomial decay with network width. Our results quantify how architectural parameters, such as width and input dimension, influence convergence, and how training dynamics affect the approximation error

Distribution-free uncertainty estimation for ensemble methods is increasingly desirable due to the widening deployment of multi-modal black-box predictive models. Conformal prediction is one approach that avoids such distributional assumptions. Methods for conformal aggregation have in turn been proposed for ensembled prediction, where the prediction regions of individual models are merged as to retain coverage guarantees while minimizing conservatism. Merging the prediction regions directly, however, sacrifices structures present in the conformal scores that can further reduce conservatism. We, therefore, propose a novel framework that extends the standard scalar formulation of a score function to a multivariate score that produces more efficient prediction regions. We then demonstrate that such a framework can be efficiently leveraged in both classification and predict-then-optimize regression settings downstream and empirically show the advantage over alternate conformal aggregation methods.

We study channel simulation and distributed matching, two fundamental problems with several applications to machine learning, using a recently introduced generalization of the standard rejection sampling (RS) algorithm known as Ensemble Rejection Sampling (ERS). For channel simulation, we propose a new coding scheme based on ERS that achieves a near-optimal coding rate. In this process, we demonstrate that standard RS can also achieve a near-optimal coding rate and generalize the result of Braverman and Garg (2014) to the continuous alphabet setting. Next, as our main contribution, we present a distributed matching lemma for ERS, which serves as the rejection sampling counterpart to the Poisson Matching Lemma (PML) introduced by Li and Anantharam (2021). Our result also generalizes a recent work on importance matching lemma (Phan et al, 2024) and, to our knowledge, is the first result on distributed matching in the family of rejection sampling schemes where the matching probability is close to PML. We demonstrate the practical significance of our approach over prior works by applying it to distributed compression. The effectiveness of our proposed scheme is validated through experiments involving synthetic Gaussian sources and distributed image compression using the MNIST dataset.

Computational methods for learning to sample from the Boltzmann distribution—where the target distribution is known only up to an unnormalized energy function—have advanced significantly recently. Due to the lack of explicit target samples, however, prior diffusion-based methods, known as _diffusion samplers_, often require importance-weighted estimation or complicated learning processes. Both trade off scalability with extensive evaluations of the energy and model, thereby limiting their practical usage. In this work, we propose **Adjoint Schrödinger Bridge Sampler (ASBS)**, a new diffusion sampler that employs simple and scalable matching-based objectives yet without the need to estimate target samples during training. ASBS is grounded on a mathematical model—the Schrödinger Bridge—which enhances sampling efficiency via kinetic-optimal transportation. Through a new lens of stochastic optimal control theory, we demonstrate how SB-based diffusion samplers can be learned at scale via Adjoint Matching and prove convergence to the global solution. Notably, ASBS generalizes the recent Adjoint Sampling (Havens et al., 2025) to arbitrary source distributions by relaxing the so-called memoryless condition that largely restricts the design space. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate the effectiveness of ASBS on sampling from classical energy functions, amortized conformer generation, and molecular Boltzmann distributions. Codes are available at https://github.com/facebookresearch/adjoint_samplers

Predictions in the form of sets of probability distributions, so-called credal sets, provide a suitable means to represent a learner's epistemic uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a theoretically grounded approach to credal prediction based on the statistical notion of relative likelihood: The target of prediction is the set of all (conditional) probability distributions produced by the collection of plausible models, namely those models whose relative likelihood exceeds a specified threshold. This threshold has an intuitive interpretation and allows for controlling the trade-off between correctness and precision of credal predictions. We tackle the problem of approximating credal sets defined in this way by means of suitably modified ensemble learning techniques. To validate our approach, we illustrate its effectiveness by experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrating superior uncertainty representation without compromising predictive performance. We also compare our method against several state-of-the-art baselines in credal prediction.

Fitting Gaussian Processes (GPs) provides interpretable aleatoric uncertainty quantification for estimation of spatio-temporal fields. Spatio-temporal deep learning models, while scalable, typically assume a simplistic independent covariance matrix for the response, failing to capture the underlying correlation structure. However, spatio-temporal GPs suffer from issues of scalability and various forms of approximation bias resulting from restrictive assumptions of the covariance kernel function. We propose STACI, a novel framework consisting of a variational Bayesian neural network approximation of non-stationary spatio-temporal GP along with a novel spatio-temporal conformal inference algorithm. STACI is highly scalable, taking advantage of GPU training capabilities for neural network models, and provides statistically valid prediction intervals for uncertainty quantification. STACI outperforms competing GPs and deep methods in accurately approximating spatio-temporal processes and we show it easily scales to datasets with millions of observations.

Variational mean field approximations tend to struggle with contemporary overparametrized deep neural networks. Where a Bayesian treatment is usually associated with high-quality predictions and uncertainties, the practical reality has been the opposite, with unstable training, poor predictive power, and subpar calibration. Building upon recent work on reparametrizations of neural networks, we propose a simple variational family that considers two independent linear subspaces of the parameter space. These represent functional changes inside and outside the support of training data. This allows us to build a fully-correlated approximate posterior reflecting the overparametrization that tunes easy-to-interpret hyperparameters. We develop scalable numerical routines that maximize the associated evidence lower bound (ELBO) and sample from the approximate posterior. Empirically, we observe state-of-the-art performance across tasks, models, and datasets compared to a wide array of baseline methods. Our results show that approximate Bayesian inference applied to deep neural networks is far from a lost cause when constructing inference mechanisms that reflect the geometry of reparametrizations.

The integration of logic programs with embedding models resulted in a class of neurosymbolic frameworks that jointly learn symbolic rules and representations for the symbols in the logic (constant or predicate). The key idea that enabled this integration was the differentiable relaxation of unification, the algorithm for variable instantiation during inference in logic programs. Unlike unification, its relaxed counterpart exploits the similarity between symbols in the embedding space to decide when two symbols are semantically equivalent. We show that this similarity between symbols violates the transitive law of equivalence, leading to undesirable side effects in learning and inference. To alleviate those side effects, we are the first to revamp the well-known possible world semantics of probabilistic logic programs into new semantics called equivalence semantics. In our semantics, a probabilistic logic program induces a probability distribution over all possible equivalence relations between symbols, instead of a probability distribution over all possible subsets of probabilistic facts. We propose a factorization of the equivalence distribution using latent random variables and characterize its expressivity. Additionally, we propose both exact and approximate techniques for reasoning in our semantics. Experiments on well-known benchmarks show that the equivalence semantics leads to neurosymbolic models with up to 42% higher results than state-of-the-art baselines.

Cluster DAGs (C-DAGs) provide an abstraction of causal graphs in which nodes represent clusters of variables, and edges encode both cluster-level causal relationships and dependencies arisen from unobserved confounding. C-DAGs define an equivalence class of acyclic causal graphs that agree on cluster-level relationships, enabling causal reasoning at a higher level of abstraction. However, when the chosen clustering induces cycles in the resulting C-DAG, the partition is deemed inadmissible under conventional C-DAG semantics. In this work, we extend the C-DAG framework to support arbitrary variable clusterings by relaxing the partition admissibility constraint, thereby allowing cyclic C-DAG representations. We extend the notions of d-separation and causal calculus to this setting, significantly broadening the scope of causal reasoning across clusters and enabling the application of C-DAGs in previously intractable scenarios. Our calculus is both sound and atomically complete with respect to the do-calculus: all valid interventional queries at the cluster level can be derived using our rules, each corresponding to a primitive do-calculus step.

In real-world applications, anomaly detection (AD) often operates without access to anomalous data, necessitating semi-supervised methods that rely solely on normal data. Among these methods, deep $k$-nearest neighbor (deep $k$NN) AD stands out for its interpretability and flexibility, leveraging distance-based scoring in deep latent spaces. Despite its strong performance, deep $k$NN lacks a mechanism to quantify uncertainty—an essential feature for critical applications such as industrial inspection. To address this limitation, we propose a statistical framework that quantifies the significance of detected anomalies in the form of $p$-values, thereby enabling control over false positive rates at a user-specified significance level (e.g.,0.05). A central challenge lies in managing selection bias, which we tackle using Selective Inference—a principled method for conducting inference conditioned on data-driven selections. We evaluate our method on diverse datasets and demonstrate that it provides reliable AD well-suited for industrial use cases.

Data fusion techniques integrate information from heterogeneous data sources to improve learning, generalization, and decision-making across data sciences. In causal inference, these methods leverage rich observational data to improve causal effect estimation, while maintaining the trustworthiness of randomized controlled trials. Existing approaches often relax the strong "no unobserved confounding" assumption by instead assuming exchangeability of counterfactual outcomes across data sources. However, when both assumptions simultaneously fail—a common scenario in practice—current methods cannot identify or estimate causal effects. We address this limitation by proposing a novel partial identification framework that enables researchers to answer key questions such as: *Is the causal effect positive/negative?* and *How severe must assumption violations be to overturn this conclusion?* Our approach introduces interpretable sensitivity parameters that quantify assumption violations and derives corresponding causal effect bounds. We develop doubly robust estimators for these bounds and operationalize breakdown frontier analysis to understand how causal conclusions change as assumption violations increase. We apply our framework to the Project STAR study, which investigates the effect of classroom size on students’ third-grade standardized test performance. Our analysis reveals that the Project STAR results are robust to simultaneous violations of key assumptions, both on average and across various subgroups of interest. This strengthens confidence in the study's conclusions despite potential unmeasured biases in the data.

In this work, we consider the problem of Bayesian Optimization (BO) under reward model uncertainty—that is, when the underlying distribution type of the reward is unknown and potentially intractable to specify. This challenge is particularly evident in many modern applications, where the reward distribution is highly ill-behaved, often non-stationary, multi-modal, or heavy-tailed. In such settings, classical Gaussian Process (GP)-based BO methods often fail due to their strong modeling assumptions. To address this challenge, we propose a novel surrogate model, the infinity-Gaussian Process ($\infty$-GP), which represents a sequential spatial Dirichlet Process mixture with a GP baseline. The $\infty$-GP quantifies both value uncertainty and model uncertainty, enabling more flexible modeling of complex reward structures. Combined with Thompson Sampling, the $\infty$-GP facilitates principled exploration and exploitation in the distributional space of reward models. Theoretically, we prove that the $\infty$-GP surrogate model can approximate a broad class of reward distributions by effectively exploring the distribution space, achieving near-minimax-optimal posterior contraction rates. Empirically, our method outperforms state-of-the-art approaches in various challenging scenarios, including highly non-stationary and heavy-tailed reward settings where classical GP-based BO often fails.

We introduce learning to condition (L2C), a scalable, data-driven framework for accelerating Most Probable Explanation (MPE) inference in Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs)—a fundamentally intractable problem. L2C trains a neural network to score variable-value assignments based on their utility for conditioning, given observed evidence. To facilitate supervised learning, we develop a scalable data generation pipeline that extracts training signals from the search traces of existing MPE solvers. The trained network serves as a heuristic that integrates with search algorithms, acting as a conditioning strategy prior to exact inference or as a branching and node selection policy within branch-and-bound solvers. We evaluate L2C on challenging MPE queries involving high-treewidth PGMs. Experiments show that our learned heuristic significantly reduces the search space while maintaining or improving solution quality over state-of-the-art methods.

We study the problem of causal structure learning from a combination of observational and interventional data generated by a linear non-Gaussian structural equation model that might contain cycles. Recent results show that using mere observational data identifies the causal graph only up to a permutation-equivalence class. We obtain a combinatorial characterization of this class by showing that each equivalence class corresponds to a perfect matching in a bipartite graph. This bipartite representation allows us to analyze how interventions modify or constrain the matchings. Specifically, we show that each atomic intervention reveals one edge of the true matching and eliminates all incompatible causal graphs. Consequently, we formalize the optimal experiment design task as an adaptive stochastic optimization problem over the set of equivalence classes with a natural reward function that quantifies how many graphs are eliminated from the equivalence class by an intervention. We show that this reward function is adaptive submodular and provide a greedy policy with a provable near-optimal performance guarantee. A key technical challenge is to efficiently estimate the reward function without having to explicitly enumerate all the graphs in the equivalence class. We propose a sampling-based estimator using random matchings and analyze its bias and concentration behavior. Our simulation results show that performing a small number of interventions guided by our stochastic optimization framework recovers the true underlying causal structure.

Concept Bottleneck Models (CBMs) have been proposed as a compromise between white-box and black-box models, aiming to achieve interpretability without sacrificing accuracy. The standard training procedure for CBMs is to predefine a candidate set of human-interpretable concepts, extract their values from the training data, and identify a sparse subset as inputs to a transparent prediction model. However, such approaches are often hampered by the tradeoff between exploring a sufficiently large set of concepts versus controlling the cost of obtaining concept extractions, resulting in a large interpretability-accuracy tradeoff. This work investigates a novel approach that sidesteps these challenges: BC-LLM iteratively searches over a potentially infinite set of concepts within a Bayesian framework, in which Large Language Models (LLMs) serve as both a concept extraction mechanism and prior. Even though LLMs can be miscalibrated and hallucinate, we prove that BC-LLM can provide rigorous statistical inference and uncertainty quantification. Across image, text, and tabular datasets, BC-LLM outperforms interpretable baselines and even black-box models in certain settings, converges more rapidly towards relevant concepts, and is more robust to out-of-distribution samples.

Bayesian Optimization (BO) is a powerful tool for optimizing expensive black-box objective functions. While extensive research has been conducted on the single-objective optimization problem, the multi-objective optimization problem remains challenging. In this paper, we propose MOBO-OSD, a multi-objective Bayesian Optimization algorithm designed to generate a diverse set of Pareto optimal solutions by solving multiple constrained optimization problems, referred to as MOBO-OSD subproblems, along orthogonal search directions (OSDs) defined with respect to an approximated convex hull of individual objective minima. By employing a well-distributed set of OSDs, MOBO-OSD ensures broad coverage of the objective space, enhancing both solution diversity and hypervolume performance. To further improve the density of the set of the Pareto optimal candidate solutions without requiring an excessive number of subproblems, we leverage a Pareto Front Estimation technique to generate additional solutions in the neighborhood of existing solutions. Additionally, MOBO-OSD supports batch optimization, enabling parallel function evaluations to accelerate the optimization process when resources are available. Through extensive experiments and analysis on a variety of synthetic and real-world benchmark functions with two to six objectives, we demonstrate that MOBO-OSD consistently outperform the state-of-the-art algorithms.