ICML 2026 Papers

How can we train agents to navigate uncertainty over long horizons? In this work, we propose ∆Belief-RL, which leverages a language model's own intrinsic beliefs to reward intermediate progress. Our method utilizes the change in the probability an agent assigns to the target solution for credit assignment. By training on synthetic interaction data, ∆Belief-RL teaches information-seeking capabilities that consistently outperform purely outcome-based rewards for RL, with improvements generalizing to out-of-distribution applications ranging from customer service to personalization. Notably, the performance continues to improve as we scale test-time interactions beyond the training horizon, with interaction-efficiency increasing even on Pass@k metrics. Overall, our work introduces a scalable training strategy for navigating uncertainty over a long-horizon, by enabling credit assignment to intermediate actions via intrinsic ∆Belief rewards.

Time series are ubiquitous in real-world scenarios and crucial for applications ranging from energy management to traffic control. Consequently, the ability to reason over time series is a fundamental skill for generalist models to solve complex problems. However, current benchmarks for generalist models largely overlook this dimension. To bridge this gap, we introduce TSRBench, a comprehensive multi-modal benchmark designed to stress-test the full spectrum of time series reasoning capabilities. TSRBench features: i) a diverse set of 4125 problems from 14 domains, and is categorized into 4 major dimensions: Perception, Reasoning, Prediction, and Decision-Making. ii) 15 tasks from the 4 dimensions evaluating essential reasoning capabilities (e.g., numerical reasoning). Through extensive experiments, we evaluate over 30 leading proprietary and open-source LLMs, VLMs, and TSLLMs within TSRBench. Our findings reveal that: i) scaling laws hold for perception and reasoning but break down for prediction; ii) strong reasoning does not guarantee accurate context-aware forecasting, indicating a decoupling between semantic understanding and numerical prediction; and iii) despite the complementary nature of textual and visual forms of time series as inputs, current multimodal models fail to effectively fuse them for reciprocal performance gains. TSRBench provides a standardized evaluation platform that not only highlights existing challenges but also offers valuable insights to advance generalist models. Our code and dataset are available at https://tsrbench.github.io/.

Sparse Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models scale Transformers efficiently but suffer from expert overlap, where different experts process similar tokens and learn redundant functions, resulting in ambiguous routing and underutilized capacity. While architectural solutions like DeepSeek-style shared experts promote specialization, they require substantial structural modifications and rely solely on intra-layer signals. We propose two plug-and-play auxiliary losses that enhance MoE specialization and routing efficiency without modifying routers or model architectures. First, an intra-layer specialization loss penalizes cosine similarity between experts' SwiGLU activations on identical tokens, encouraging experts to specialize in complementary functions. Second, a cross-layer dependency loss maximizes joint Top-$k$ routing probabilities across adjacent layers, establishing coherent expert pathways through network depth while reinforcing intra-layer specialization. Both losses are orthogonal to the standard load-balancing loss and compatible with shared-expert and vanilla Top-$k$ MoE architectures. We implement both losses as a drop-in Megatron-LM module. Extensive experiments across pre-training, fine-tuning, and zero-shot benchmarks demonstrate consistent task gains, higher expert specialization, and lower-entropy routing; together, these improvements translate into faster inference via more stable expert pathways.

Personalizing AI decision support for heterogeneous human decision-makers remains a key challenge. We study a collaboration workflow where AI provides a reduced prediction set via conformal prediction and the human makes the final decision based on the set. We formulate this personalization problem as a contextual bandit, where individual and task features form the context, candidate significance levels $\alpha$ serve as arms, and the optimal prediction-set size varies across contexts. To address large arm spaces and high-dimensional contexts, we introduce the Adaptively Grouped Contextual Bandit (AGCB) framework, which avoids global function approximation by exploiting two Human-AI structural assumptions: continuity and monotonicity. Continuity enables information sharing across nearby contexts and decisions, and drives a data-driven Zooming Mechanism that balances intra-group estimation error against inter-group approximation bias. Monotonicity converts each observation into directional counterfactual information over the $K$ candidate $\alpha$ values, reducing the arm-dependence factor from polynomial to logarithmic in $K$. Together, these mechanisms yield minimax-optimal dependence on the learning horizon $T$ for both cumulative and simple regret objectives. Empirical results confirm that AGCB achieves the strongest overall performance across most heterogeneous, data-scarce settings.

Large Language Models (LLMs) exhibit high reasoning capacity in medical question-answering, but their tendency to produce hallucinations and outdated knowledge poses critical risks in healthcare fields. While Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) mitigates these issues, existing methods rely on noisy token-level signals and lack the multi-round refinement required for complex reasoning. In this paper, we propose **MA-RAG** (**M**ulti-Round **A**gentic RAG), a framework that facilitates test-time scaling for complex medical reasoning by iteratively evolving both external evidence and internal reasoning history within an agentic refinement loop. At each round, the agent transforms semantic **conflict** among candidate responses into actionable queries to retrieve external evidence, while optimizing history reasoning traces to mitigate long-context degradation. MA-RAG extends the *self-consistency* principle by leveraging the lack of consistency as a proactive signal for multi-round agentic reasoning and retrieval, and mirrors a *boosting* mechanism that iteratively minimizes the residual error toward a stable, high-fidelity medical **consensus**. Extensive evaluations across 7 medical Q\&A benchmarks show that MA-RAG consistently surpasses competitive inference-time scaling and RAG baselines, delivering **substantial +6.8 points** on average accuracy over the backbone model. Our code is available at https://github.com/NJU-RL/MA-RAG.

Federated Graph Learning (FGL) enables collaborative training across distributed clients without sharing raw graph data. However, its performance is severely hindered by graph-specific heterogeneity arising from divergent node feature distributions and disparate graph structures. Existing FGL methods primarily focus on aligning or personalizing node features but largely overlook the role of structural knowledge, leading to aggregation-induced representation drift during message passing. We observe that structural heterogeneity often originates from feature-driven connection biases shaped by local data collection practices or user preferences. To address this, we propose \textbf{Fed-Kalter}, a novel FGL framework that integrates Kalman filtering principles into graph neural networks. Fed-Kalter introduces Kalter-Conv, a graph convolution grounded in a Kalman framework with learnable dynamics, which treats structural embeddings as latent states and feature-augmented neighborhoods as noisy observations, thereby filtering feature-induced structural noise in a layer-wise manner. Only structural parameters are aggregated globally, enabling effective cross-client knowledge transfer while preserving local personalization. Extensive experiments on 16 graph classification datasets spanning 4 domains demonstrate that Fed-Kalter consistently outperforms state-of-the-art FGL methods. Further ablation and hyperparameter studies confirm its robustness, efficiency, and effectiveness in mitigating structural heterogeneity.

Density-based anomaly detection methods often provide accurate and interpretable predictions but their performance can be severely degraded by the inherent noise of data, such as changes arising from environmental conditions during data collection or background noise. To deal with such noise, we present noise-robust density estimation (NRDE) for tabular data anomaly detection. We aim to estimate the density of pure data with the influence of noises isolated, which is a non-trivial task since the data-generating process is completely unknown. Specifically, NRDE learns a Jacobian-regularized normalizing flow to estimate the sources of data and categorizes sources into two groups, where one group generates pure data and the other generates noise. After generating pure data, we can use the density of such pure data to detect anomalies caused by the sources of pure data solely. Therefore, NRDE is robust to inherent noise. We provide theoretical results to support the effectiveness of NRDE and compare NRDE with $17$ baselines on $47$ benchmark datasets under different settings, including vanilla anomaly detection, anomaly detection with anomaly contamination, anomaly detection on noisy data, and transductive outlier detection.

Recent work suggests that large-scale, multi-animal modeling can significantly improve neural recording analysis. However, for functional calcium traces, existing approaches remain task-specific, limiting transfer across common neuroscience objectives. To address this challenge, we propose \textbf{CalM}, a self-supervised neural foundation model trained solely on neuronal calcium traces and adaptable to multiple downstream tasks, including forecasting and decoding. Our key contribution is a pretraining framework, composed of a high-performance tokenizer mapping single-neuron traces into a shared discrete vocabulary, and a dual-axis autoregressive transformer modeling dependencies along both the neural and the temporal axis. We evaluate CalM on a large-scale, multi-animal, multi-session dataset. On the neural population dynamics forecasting task, CalM outperforms strong specialized baselines after pretraining. With a task-specific head, CalM further adapts to the behavior decoding task and achieves superior results compared with supervised decoding models. Moreover, linear analyses of CalM representations reveal interpretable functional structures beyond predictive accuracy. Taken together, we propose a novel and effective self-supervised pretraining paradigm for foundation models based on calcium traces, paving the way for scalable pretraining and broad applications in functional neural analysis.

The prohibitive cost of evaluating Large Language Models (LLMs) necessitates efficient alternatives to full-scale benchmarking. Prevalent approaches address this by identifying a small coreset of items to approximate full-benchmark performance. However, existing methods must estimate a reliable item profile from response patterns across many source models, which becomes statistically unstable when the source pool is small. This dependency is particularly limiting for newly released benchmarks with minimal historical evaluation data. We argue that discrete correctness labels are a lossy view of the model's decision process and fail to capture information encoded in hidden states. To address this, we introduce \textsc{RepCore}, which aligns heterogeneous hidden states into a unified latent space to construct representative coresets. Using these subsets for performance extrapolation, \textsc{RepCore} achieves precise estimation accuracy with as few as ten source models. Experiments on five benchmarks and over 200 models show consistent gains over output-based baselines in ranking correlation and estimation accuracy. Spectral analysis further indicates that the aligned representations contain separable components reflecting broad response tendencies and task-specific reasoning patterns.

As LLMs proliferate with diverse capabilities and costs, LLM routing has emerged by learning to predict each LLM's quality and cost for a given query, then selecting the one with high quality and low cost. However, existing routers implicitly assume a single fixed quality and cost per LLM for each query, ignoring that the same LLM's quality varies with its output length. This causes routers to exclude powerful LLMs when their estimated cost exceeds the budget, missing the opportunity that these LLMs could still deliver high quality at reduced cost with shorter outputs. To address this, we introduce R2-Router, which treats output length budget as a controllable variable and jointly selects the best LLM and length budget, enforcing the budget via length-constrained instructions. This enables R2-Router to discover that a powerful LLM with constrained output can outperform a weaker LLM at comparable cost—efficient configurations invisible to prior methods. Together with the router framework, we construct R2-Bench, the first routing dataset capturing LLM behavior across diverse output length budgets. Experiments show that R2-Router achieves state-of-the-art performance at $4-5\times$ lower cost compared with existing routers. This work opens a new direction: routing as reasoning, where routers evolve from reactive selectors to deliberate reasoners that explore which LLM to use and at what cost budget. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/UCF-ML-Research/R2-Router.

The diversity of robot embodiments and action spaces makes it challenging to build robot world models that generalize across different embodiments. We introduce the Latent Action-Conditioned Robot World Model (LAC-WM), which operates within a learned unified latent action space shared across diverse embodiments. This unified action space improves the world model’s performance when adapted to previously unseen robot embodiments. We compare LAC-WM with an Explicit Action-Conditioned World Model (EAC-WM), which conditions on explicit motion labels. Our results shows that explicit action conditioning leads to disjoint action representations across embodiments, limiting downstream performance when adapting to new robots. We evaluate both models on dexterous manipulation tasks and a modified LIBERO benchmark. LAC-WM improves downstream performance over EAC-WM by up to 46.7% on dexterous manipulation and 11.7% on LIBERO. Crucially, the unified latent action space allows LAC-WM’s downstream performance to scale positively with the number of embodiments used during pretraining. In contrast, the disjoint action space in EAC-WM leads to decreased performance as the number of pretraining embodiments increases. These results highlights the importance of a unified action space for efficient cross-embodiment learning, addressing a key challenge in robotics.

Continuous-time dynamic graphs (CTDGs) provide a richer framework to capture fine-grained temporal patterns in evolving relational data. Long-range information propagation is a key challenge while learning representations, wherein it is important to retain and update information over long temporal horizons. Existing approaches restrict models to capture one-hop or local temporal neighborhoods and fail to capture multi-hop or global structural patterns. To mitigate this, we derive a parameter-efficient state-space modeling framework for continuous-time dynamic graphs $\texttt{(CTDG-SSM)}$ from first principles. We first introduce continuous-time Topology-Aware higher order polynomial projection operator ($\texttt{CTT-HiPPO}$), a novel memory-based reformulation of $\texttt{HiPPO}$ to jointly encode temporal dynamics and graph structure. The solution from $\texttt{CTT-HiPPO}$ is obtained by projecting the classical HiPPO solution through a polynomial of the Laplacian matrix, yielding topology-aware memory updates that admit an equivalent state-space formulation for CTDGs ($\texttt{CTDG-SSM}$). Then a computationally efficient discrete formulation is obtained using the zero-order hold approach for model implementation. Across benchmarks on dynamic link prediction, dynamic node classification, and sequence classification, $\texttt{CTDG-SSM}$ achieves state-of-the-art performance. Notably, it achieves large performance gains on datasets that require long range temporal (LRT) and spatial reasoning.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have been increasingly adopted in forensics for their robust semantic understanding. As AI-generated images become realistic, semantic-level inconsistencies alone are often insufficient for reliable detection. This motivates a critical question: *whether MLLMs can achieve full-spectrum forensic signal perception, i.e., capturing low-level generator artifacts without sacrificing pre-trained semantic knowledge.* We then conduct a layer-wise analysis of forensic signal perception in MLLMs and find that semantic information is mainly encoded in the early-to-middle layers, and directly fine-tuning MLLMs for artifact learning causes rapid semantic forgetting. Based on this insight, we propose Deep Visual Residual MLLM (Deep-VRM) to \textit{preserve early semantic processing while injecting artifact-specific visual signals as a residual path into an intermediate layer}, where they are fused with semantic token representations and propagated through subsequent trainable layers. This enables later layers to jointly model semantic reasoning and signal-level forensic cues, and surprisingly, the model learns to adaptively leverage different levels of forensic signals depending on the input, achieving robust and generalizable detection performance. Extensive experiments show that our method achieves state-of-the-art across all benchmarks.

Traditional neural topic models are typically optimized by reconstructing the document's Bag-of-Words (BoW) representations, overlooking contextual information and struggling with data sparsity. In this work, we introduce a novel topic model training framework by Distilling Soft Labels (DSL) from Language Models (LMs). To construct the contextually enriched reconstruction signals, we project the next token probabilities, conditioned on a specialized prompt, onto a pre-defined vocabulary, and train the topic models to reconstruct the soft labels using the LM hidden states. This produces higher-quality topics that are more closely aligned with the underlying thematic structure of the corpus. Extensive experiments demonstrate that DSL achieves substantial improvements in topic coherence and assignment accuracy over existing baselines. Additionally, we also introduce a retrieval-based metric, which shows that our approach significantly outperforms existing methods in identifying semantically similar documents, highlighting its effectiveness for retrieval-oriented applications.

Incorporating textual information into time-series forecasting holds promise for addressing event- driven non-stationarity; however, a fundamental modality gap hinders effective fusion: textual descriptions express temporal impacts implicitly and qualitatively, whereas forecasting models rely on explicit and quantitative signals. Through controlled semi-synthetic experiments, we show that existing methods over-attend to redundant tokens and struggle to reliably translate textual semantics into usable numerical cues. To bridge this gap, we propose TESS, which introduces a Temporal Evolution Semantic Space as an intermediate bottleneck between modalities. This space consists of interpretable, numerically grounded temporal primitives—distribution shift, volatility, shape, and lag—extracted from text by an LLM via structured prompting and filtered through confidence-aware gating. Experiments on four real-world datasets demonstrate up to a 29% reduction in forecasting error compared to state-of-the-art unimodal and multimodal baselines. Code is available at: https://github.com/olivia3395/TESS.

Large language models increasingly rely on long chains of thought to improve accuracy, yet such gains come with substantial inference-time costs. We revisit token-efficient post-training and argue that existing sequence-level reward-shaping methods offer limited control over how reasoning effort is allocated across tokens. To bridge the gap, we propose IAPO, an information-theoretic post-training framework that assigns token-wise advantages based on each token’s conditional mutual information (MI) with the final answer. This yields an explicit, principled mechanism for identifying informative reasoning steps and suppressing low-utility exploration. We provide a theoretical analysis showing that our IAPO can induce monotonic reductions in reasoning verbosity without harming correctness. Empirically, IAPO consistently improves reasoning accuracy while reducing reasoning length by up to 36\%, outperforming existing token-efficient RL methods across various reasoning datasets. Our results demonstrate that information-aware advantage shaping is a powerful and general direction for token-efficient post-training. The code is available at https://github.com/YinhanHe123/IAPO.

Deep learning for human sensing on edge systems presents significant potential for smart applications. However, its training and development are hindered by the limited availability of sensor data and resource constraints of edge systems. While transferring pre-trained models to different sensing applications is promising, existing methods often require extensive sensor data and computational resources, resulting in high costs and limited transferability. In this paper, we propose XTransfer, a first-of-its-kind method enabling modality-agnostic, few-shot model transfer with resource-efficient design. XTransfer flexibly uses pre-trained models and transfers knowledge across different modalities by (i) model repairing that safely mitigates modality shift by adapting pre-trained layers with only few sensor data, and (ii) layer recombining that efficiently searches and recombines layers of interest from source models in a layer-wise manner to restructure models. We benchmark various baselines across diverse human sensing datasets spanning different modalities. The results show that XTransfer achieves state-of-the-art performance while significantly reducing the costs of sensor data collection, model training, and edge deployment.

This paper deals with stochastic optimization problems involving Markovian noise with a zero-order oracle. We present and analyze a novel derivative-free method for solving such problems in strongly convex smooth and non-smooth settings with both one-point and two-point feedback oracles. Using a randomized batching scheme, we show that when mixing time $\tau$ of the underlying noise sequence is less than the dimension of the problem $d$, the convergence estimates of our method do not depend on $\tau$. This observation provides an efficient way to interact with Markovian stochasticity: instead of invoking the expensive first-order oracle, one should use the zero-order oracle. Finally, we complement our upper bounds with the corresponding lower bounds. This confirms the optimality of our results.

Spherical signals provide a natural representation for omnidirectional perception and often benefit from equivariance to 3D rotations. Recent spherical vision transformers implement local self-attention on spherical grids, but most retain only partial $\mathrm{SO}(3)$ equivariance and rely on $\textit{location-dependent}$ local positional embeddings (LPEs). Such LPEs can degrade robustness to camera tilt or object reorientation and introduce additional memory and computational overhead. We propose $\textit{Spherical $\mathrm{SO}(3)$-Equivariant Local Attention}$ (SoLA), an LPE-free local attention mechanism for spherical signals. SoLA achieves full $\mathrm{SO}(3)$ equivariance through a distance-preserving positional modulation that couples query/key features with each token’s unit direction. Specifically, the modulation lifts queries and keys using an outer-product with the 4D direction dependent vector. The induced similarity of the modulated queries and keys depends on content affinity and great-circle distance while remaining invariant to global $\mathrm{SO}(3)$ rotations. The same formulation admits a softmax-free linear variant that computes local attention via key-value aggregation without per-query neighbor materialization. We integrate SoLA into a U-shaped spherical transformer for $360^\circ$ depth estimation and semantic segmentation, demonstrating substantially improved robustness to arbitrary 3D rotations compared to prior spherical transformers with similar computational costs.