ICML 2026 Papers

Time series anomaly detection(TSAD) is a critical task, but developing models that generalize to unseen data in a zero-shot manner remains challenging. Existing foundation models for TSAD often rely on reconstruction-error scoring at inference time, which can miss subtle anomalies that are well reconstructed and can falsely flag complex but normal patterns in unseen domains. We introduce TimeRCD, a foundation model for TSAD built on Relative Context Discrepancy (RCD), a pre-training paradigm that trains the model to detect anomalies by comparing a query pattern with its surrounding context. This relational formulation, implemented with a standard Transformer architecture, enables the model to infer normality from the input context rather than relying on fixed global normal patterns. We further construct a large-scale synthetic corpus with context-dependent anomaly labels to provide supervised pre-training signals for RCD. Experiments across diverse benchmarks show that TimeRCD outperforms existing general-purpose and anomaly-specific foundation models in most zero-shot TSAD settings, while remaining competitive with dataset-specific full-shot baselines. These results provide empirical evidence that RCD is an effective direction for building robust and generalizable TSAD models.

Learning latent dynamics is central to assessing current states and forecasting future trajectories for high-dimensional time series. For locally-stationary latent dynamics parameterized by past latent states and an environment variable c, with latent dynamics state z_t, prior identifiability results largely focus on z_t when conditioned on pre-defined label u of the dynamics environment. This leaves two limitations: reliance on pre-defined labels that hinder generalization to unseen environments, and limited understanding of the identifiability of F and c which---while offering important structural properties for the identifiability of z_t---are learned jointly with z_t. We address these challenges with Meta-iLaD, a novel latent dynamics framework to attain identifiability by meta-learning across dynamics environments. Meta-iLaD replaces the conditioning of c on pre-defined labels with a novel conditional prior, modeled as a feedforward meta-learner that rapidly extracts c from few-shot examples. We further establish simultaneous identifiability for z_t, c and F, for a general formulation of the dynamics function F over past latent states and c, without restricting the dimension of c or how it modulates F. We provide strong empirical evidence that 1) conditioning on few-shot examples enables generalization to out-of-distribution environments, and 2) identifiability for c and F is critical for accurate forecasting beyond reconstructing observed trajectories.

This paper studies causal discovery in irregularly sampled time series—a key challenge in risk-sensitive domains like finance, healthcare, and climate science, where missing data and inconsistent sampling frequencies distort causal mechanisms. The main challenge comes from the interdependence between missing data imputation and causal structure recovery: errors in imputation and structure learning can reinforce each other, leading to an inaccurate causal graph. Existing methods either impute first and then discover, or jointly optimize both via neural representation learning, but lack explicit mechanisms to ensure mutual consistency of imputation and structure learning. We address this challenge with ReTimeCausal, an EM-based framework that alternates between imputation and structure learning, which encourages structural consistency throughout the optimization process. Our framework provides theoretical consistency guarantees for structure recovery and extends classical results to settings with irregular sampling and high missingness. ReTimeCausal combines kernel-based sparse regression and structural constraints in an alternating process that updates the completed data and the causal graph in turn. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets show that ReTimeCausal is more effective than existing methods under challenging irregular sampling and missing data.

In this paper, we study dynamic regret in unconstrained online convex optimization (OCO) with movement costs. Specifically, we generalize the standard setting by allowing the movement cost coefficients $\lambda_t$ to vary arbitrarily over time. Our main contribution is a novel algorithm that establishes the first comparator-adaptive dynamic regret bound for this setting, guaranteeing $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{(M^2+MP_T)(T+\sum_t \lambda_t)})$ regret, where $P_T$ is the path length of the comparator sequence over $T$ rounds and $M$ is the maximal comparator norm. Our result recovers the optimal adaptive rates for both static and dynamic regret in OCO as the special case where $\lambda_t=0$ for all rounds. To demonstrate the versatility of our results, we consider two applications: *OCO with delayed feedback* and *OCO with time-varying memory*. We show that both problems can be translated into time-varying movement costs, establishing a novel reduction specifically for the delayed feedback setting that is of independent interest. A crucial observation is that the first-order dependence on movement costs in our regret bound plays a key role in enabling optimal comparator-adaptive dynamic regret guarantees in both settings.

This paper proposes a power-enhanced panel Granger causality test (PE-PGCT) for assessing the Granger non-causality in heterogeneous and potentially high-dimensional panel data. Building on any existing panel Granger non-causality test, we show, both theoretically and empirically, that the proposed PE-PGCT boosts its power substantially. The power gains are particularly significant in situations of high-dimensional panels when the cross-sectional dimension exceeds the time dimension, as well as under sparse alternatives when the signals are sparsely distributed across panel units. We establish rigorous theoretical guarantees on the asymptotic behavior of the proposed power enhancement component, demonstrating attractive power enhancement properties that it induces negligible size distortion under the null hypothesis while delivering significant power gain under the alternatives. The empirical performances are illustrated via extensive simulation studies, as well as a real-world application.

Transformers enable in-context learning (ICL) for rapid, gradient-free adaptation in time series forecasting, yet most ICL-style approaches rely on tabularized, hand-crafted features, while end-to-end sequence models lack inference-time adaptation. We bridge this gap with a unified framework, Baguan-TS, which integrates the raw-sequence representation learning with ICL, instantiated by a 3D Transformer that attends jointly over temporal, variable, and context axes. To make this high-capacity model practical, we tackle two key hurdles: (i) calibration and training stability, improved with a feature-agnostic, target-space retrieval-based local calibration; and (ii) output oversmoothing, mitigated via context-overfitting strategy. On public benchmark with covariates, Baguan-TS consistently outperforms established baselines, achieving the highest win rate and significant reductions in both point and probabilistic forecasting metrics. Further evaluations across diverse real-world energy datasets demonstrate its robustness, yielding substantial improvements.

Spatio-temporal forecasting is critical for real-world applications like traffic management, yet capturing complex interactions under high-noise conditions remains challenging. While current methods have shown improved accuracy using spatial physical priors, they often struggle with evolving temporal correlations and systematic errors. In this work, we propose a nested forecasting framework that couples future macro-level regional trends with micro-level historical observations, enabling top-down guidance from abstract future representations for fine-grained forecasting. Specifically, we construct semantically coherent regions via spectral clustering and design a progressive coarse-to-fine predictor to inject macro-dynamics into node-level forecasting. Extensive experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, validating the effectiveness of future macro-guided nested forecasting.

Test-time compute scaling allocates inference computation uniformly, uses fixed sampling strategies, and applies verification only for reranking. In contrast, we propose a verifier-guided adaptive framework treating reasoning as iterative trajectory generation and selection. For each problem, the agent runs multiple inference iterations. In each iteration, it optionally produces a high-level plan, selects a set of reasoning tools and a compute strategy together with an exploration parameter, and then generates a candidate reasoning trajectory. A process reward model (PRM) serves as a unified control signal: within each iteration, step-level PRM scores are aggregated to guide pruning and expansion during generation, and across iterations, aggregated trajectory rewards are used to select the final response. Across datasets, our dynamic, PRM-guided approach consistently outperforms direct test-time scaling, yielding large gains on MATH-500 and several-fold improvements on harder benchmarks such as AIME24 and AMO-Bench. We characterize efficiency using theoretical FLOPs and a compute intensity metric penalizing wasted generation and tool overhead, demonstrating that verification-guided allocation concentrates computation on high-utility reasoning paths.

Inference-time alignment, the approach of adapting pre-trained models to reward feedback during inference, has proven empirically effective at improving language-model performance. Despite its success, theoretical foundations remain underdeveloped, especially in practical settings where neural networks are employed as reward models. In this paper, we explore the advantages of neural networks and how to effectively train them for inference-time alignment. Assuming that the true reward function lies in Besov spaces to capture the non-uniform smoothness, we compare neural networks to linear estimators and show that feature learning capability of neural networks is crucial for improving performance. We further analyze algorithms for training neural-network reward estimators. Specifically, we consider a multi-step algorithm that alternates between sampling from the current policy and refitting the reward estimator, and prove that it improves the regret, especially when the true reward exhibits local structure.

Reconstruction-based methods are a dominant paradigm in time series anomaly detection (TSAD), however, their near-universal reliance on Mean Squared Error (MSE) loss results in statistically flawed reconstruction residuals. This fundamental weakness leads to noisy, unstable anomaly scores, hindering reliable detection. To address this, we propose Constrained Gaussian-Noise Optimization and Smoothing (COGNOS), a universal, model-agnostic enhancement framework that tackles this issue at its source. COGNOS introduces a novel Gaussian-White Noise Regularization strategy during training, which directly constrains the model's output residuals to conform to a Gaussian white noise distribution. This engineered statistical property creates the ideal precondition for our second contribution: Adaptive Residual Kalman Smoother that provably operates as a statistically robust estimator to denoise the raw anomaly scores. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmarks demonstrate that COGNOS consistently enhances the performance of state-of-the-art backbones significantly, validating the efficacy of coupling statistical regularization with adaptive filtering.

Effective time series representation is critical for revealing temporal dynamics in many fields. However, existing approaches encounter fundamental limitations. Discrete-time representations struggle with irregular sampling and the tradeoff of fidelity and efficiency, while traditional implicit neural representations suffer from spectral bias and frequency entanglement. To address these challenges, we conceptualize time series as the superposition of continuous trends and discrete events from a continuous-time perspective and propose DualTimesField, a framework that utilizes dual implicit neural fields. Its Continuous Time Field captures smooth trends through bandwidth-limited parameterization, while a Discrete Geometric Field models transient events using learnable Gabor atoms, gated sparsity, and coarse-to-fine scale annealing. This explicit field separation effectively overcomes both limitations. Experiments on nine real-world benchmarks demonstrate substantial improvements in representation fidelity, achieving 51.2% average MSE reduction over discrete-time baselines and competitive interpolation on irregular data. Code is available at https://github.com/WisdomTogether/DualTimesField.

Inference on the conditional mean function (CMF) is central to tasks from adaptive experimentation to optimal treatment assignment and algorithmic fairness auditing. In this work, we provide a novel asymptotic anytime-valid test for a CMF global null (e.g., that all conditional means are zero) and contrasts between CMFs, enabling experimenters to make high confidence decisions at \textit{any} time during the experiment beyond a minimum sample size. We provide mild conditions under which our tests achieve (i) asymptotic type-I error guarantees, (i) power one, and, unlike past tests, (iii) optimal sample complexity relative to a Gaussian location testing. By inverting our tests, we show how to construct function-valued asymptotic confidence sequences for the CMF and contrasts thereof. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world data show our method is well-powered across various distributions while preserving the nominal error rate under continuous monitoring.

How can we learn the laws underlying the dynamics of stochastic systems when their trajectories are sampled sparsely in time? Existing methods either require temporally resolved high-frequency observations, or rely on geometric arguments that apply only to conservative systems, limiting the range of dynamics they can recover. Here, we present a new framework that reconciles these two perspectives by reformulating inference as a stochastic control problem. Our method uses geometry-driven path augmentation, guided by structure in the system’s invariant density to reconstruct likely trajectories and infer the underlying dynamics without assuming specific parametric models. Applied to overdamped Langevin systems, our approach accurately recovers stochastic dynamics even from severely undersampled data, outperforming existing methods in synthetic benchmarks. This work demonstrates the effectiveness of incorporating geometric inductive biases into stochastic system identification methods, with broad applications across physics, biology, and control.

Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) and stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) are fundamental for modeling stochastic dynamics across the natural sciences and modern machine learning. Learning their solution operators with deep learning models promises fast solvers and new perspectives on classical learning tasks. In this work, we build on Wiener--chaos expansions (WCE) to design neural operator (NO) architectures for SDEs and SPDEs: we project driving noise paths onto orthonormal Wick--Hermite features and use NO backbones to parameterize the corresponding chaos coefficients governed by deterministic equations, enabling reconstruction of S(P)DE solutions from the observed noise trajectories. Empirically, we achieve competitive accuracy across several tasks, including standard SPDE benchmarks and SDE-based diffusion one-step image sampling, topological graph interpolation, financial extrapolation, parameter estimation, and manifold SDE flood forecasting. We further explore a law-matching setting where the Brownian trajectories paired with training solutions are unobserved, and show that the proposed framework remains effective by sampling auxiliary Brownian paths from the prescribed noise prior. These results suggest WCE-based neural operators are a practical and scalable approach to learning SDE/SPDE solution operators across domains. Our source code can be found in https://github.com/EEthanShi/SDENO.

Recent time series modeling faces a sharp divide between numerical generation and semantic understanding, with research showing that generation models often rely on superficial pattern matching, while understanding-oriented models struggle with high-fidelity numerical output. Although unified multimodal models (UMMs) have bridged this gap in vision, their potential for time series remains untapped. We propose TimeOmni-VL, the first vision-centric framework that unifies time series understanding and generation through two key innovations: (1) Fidelity-preserving bidirectional mapping between time series and images (Bi-TSI), which advances Time Series-to-Image (TS2I) and Image-to-Time Series (I2TS) conversions to ensure near-lossless transformations. (2) Understanding-guided generation. We introduce TSUMM-Suite, a novel dataset consisting of six understanding tasks rooted in time series analytics and coupled with two generation tasks. With a calibrated Chain-of-Thought (CoT), TimeOmni-VL is the first to leverage time series understanding as an explicit control signal for high-fidelity generation. Experiments confirm that this unified approach significantly improves semantic understanding and numerical precision, establishing a new frontier for multimodal time series modeling.

Large language models (LLMs) handle many tasks with one set of parameters, but under KV-cached inference it is unclear what task-general structure, if any, is used at $\textit{decode time}$ rather than during $\textit{prefill}$. We propose $\textbf{DecodeShare}$, a protocol that identifies a low-dimensional subspace consistently shared across tasks in decode-time hidden states, and then tests its causal role by removing that subspace only during decoding. In our experiments, disturbing the discovered shared subspace degrades decision performance far more than disturbing either a prefill-derived or random subspace under the same intervention budget. We further show this decode-shared subspace has practical consequences for activation steering: common steering directions can overlap the task-general decode channel. Projecting out this shared subspace directly separates the functional roles of the two components, while evaluating steering vectors at decode-time yields more reliable signal for downstream deployment than prefill-based proxies. Despite its compactness, the shared subspace can serve as a high-leverage causal channel at decode time. Code is available at: https://github.com/Zishan-Shao/decodeshare.git.

Time series data is fundamental to decision-making across many domains including healthcare, finance, power systems, and logistics. However, analyzing this data correctly often requires incorporating unstructured contextual information, answering domain-specific questions, and generating natural language explanations – capabilities that traditional time series models lack. While Large Language Models (LLMs) excel at contextual reasoning and knowledge integration, they struggle with numerical time series due to inefficient text-based representations and limited exposure to numerical data during pretraining. We address this gap by augmenting an LLM with specialized time series perception through a patch-based encoder-decoder architecture. We train this time series-augmented LLM (TsLLM) on a large corpus of over 25 billion tokens of interleaved time series and text spanning diverse tasks: forecasting with contextual information, question-answering, anomaly detection, classification, report generation, and more, all unified as autoregressive next token prediction. This training enables TsLLM to leverage both its natural language skills and newly acquired understanding of numerical time series signals. While not designed to surpass specialized models on traditional benchmarks, TsLLM demonstrates strong performance on tasks requiring the integration of time series analysis with natural language – capabilities that conventional approaches cannot provide. It also exhibits strong zero-shot and few-shot performance, showing it can adapt to new data without additional training.

Irregular multivariate time series impose a trade-off for long-horizon forecasting: discrete methods can distort temporal structure via re-gridding, while continuous-time models often require sequential solvers prone to drift. To bridge this gap, we present Latent Laplace Diffusion (LLapDiff), a generative framework that models the target as a low-dimensional latent trajectory, enabling horizon-wide generation without step-by-step integration over physical time. We guide the reverse process utilizing a stable modal parameterization motivated by stochastic port-Hamiltonian dynamics, and parameterize its mean evolution in the Laplace domain via learnable complex-conjugate poles, enabling direct evaluation over irregular timestamps. We also link continuous dynamics to irregular observations through renewal-averaging analysis, which maps sampling gaps to effective event-domain poles and motivates a gap-aware history summarizer. Extensive experiments show that LLapDiff improves over baselines in long-horizon forecasting, and its continuous-time generative nature supports missing-value imputation by querying the same model at historical timestamps. Code is available at \url{https://github.com/pixelhero98/LLapDiffusion}.

Prediction-powered inference is a recent methodology for the safe use of black-box ML models to impute missing data, strengthening inference of statistical parameters. However, many applications require strong properties besides valid inference, such as privacy, robustness or validity under continuous distribution shifts; deriving prediction-powered methods with such guarantees is generally an arduous process, and has to be done case by case. In this paper, we resolve this issue by connecting prediction-powered inference with conformal prediction: by performing imputation through a calibrated set-predictor, we attain validity while achieving additional guarantees in a natural manner. We instantiate our procedure for the inference of means, Z- and M-estimation, as well as e-values and e-value-based procedures. Furthermore, in the case of e-values, ours is the first general prediction-powered procedure that operates off-line. We demonstrate these advantages by applying our method on private and time-series data. Both tasks are nontrivial within the standard prediction-powered framework but become natural under our method.