NeurIPS 2026 论文列表

Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems

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Step-wise Rubric Rewards for LLM Reasoning

Weichu Xie, Haozhe Zhao, Wenpu Liu, Yongfu Zhu, Liang Chen, Minghao Ye, Zirong Chen, Yuqi Xu, Shuai Dong, Ziyue Wang, Xinbo Xu, Kean Shi, Ruoyu Wu, Xiaoying Zhang, Wenqi Shao, Baobao Chang, Nan Duan, Jiaqi Wang

展开摘要

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) is widely used to improve the reasoning capabilities of large language models, but its reward is derived only from the correctness of the final answer and provides no supervision over intermediate reasoning steps. Recent rubric-based methods, such as Rubrics as Rewards (RaR), introduce finer-grained supervision by scoring rollouts against a structured set of evaluation criteria. However, the resulting rubric scores are still aggregated into a single scalar that is applied to the entire response, leading to three structural weaknesses, namely loss of the multi-criterion rubric structure, uniform supervision of correct and incorrect reasoning steps, and reward hacking in the trained model through unbounded self-correction. On a sample of 1{,}000 problems, we find that 18.2\% of steps within answer-correct responses are themselves wrong yet positively rewarded, while 49.9\% of steps within answer-incorrect responses are in fact correct yet penalized. Therefore, we introduce \textbf{Step-wise Rubrics as Rewards (SRaR)}, an RLVR framework that (i) uses an LLM judge to attribute each rubric item to a specific reasoning step, (ii) normalizes the per-step rubric scores across rollouts so that only steps whose quality varies produce a learning signal, and (iii) combines the resulting per-step reward with the standard outcome reward through a decoupled advantage estimator that keeps the outcome-driven baseline stable. To support training, we further build a 16K-problem rubric dataset by contrastively distilling rubric items from correct and flawed reasoning paths sampled from a strong model and verified against the ground-truth answer. Across six mathematical reasoning benchmarks spanning multiple difficulty levels, SRaR improves the average accuracy over RaR by \textbf{3.57} points on Qwen3-8B-Non-Thinking and by \textbf{2.75} points on Qwen3-32B-Non-Thinking, raises the Faithful Reasoning Rate on AIME~2025 from 34.5\% to 46.7\% (every correct-answer trajectory of SRaR uses entirely correct reasoning steps), and reduces the rate of self-correction looping from 48.1\% to 26.5\%.

Poster
Step-dLLM: Adaptive Step-aware Sparse Attention for Efficient Diffusion LLM Inference

Zhichen Zeng, Xichong zhang, Junpan Wu, Yifei Zuo, Chi-Chih Chang, Jiayi Wang, Maohua Nie, Ji Liu, Ang Li, Banghua Zhu

展开摘要

Diffusion large language models (dLLMs) generate tokens in parallel via iterative denoising, but their bidirectional attention prevents the KV caching used by autoregressive models and recomputes the full attention map at every step, incurring quadratic per-step cost. Existing sparse attention methods for dLLMs compute a sparse mask once at the first denoising step and reuse it throughout, while allocating the sparsity budget uniformly across heads. We argue both choices ignore key structural properties of attention in dLLMs: empirically, attention patterns are only locally consistent across steps and shift abruptly at certain transitions, and different heads concentrate their attention mass to very different extents. To this end, we design Step-dLLM, which periodically refreshes a block-sparse mask at anchor steps along the denoising trajectory and reuses it within each locally consistent interval, while a head-adaptive global budget assigns more blocks to heads with more concentrated attention. Backed by a fused IO-aware Triton kernel for block-sparse attention, Step-dLLM applies to pre-trained LLaDA-1.5 and Dream-7B-Instruct without retraining, achieving a $4.2\times$ kernel-level speedup over dense FlashAttention at 16K context with 90% sparsity (up to $8.5\times$ at 95%), and achieves better model accuracy and lower latency than prior methods.

Poster
Step-by-Step Optimization-like Reasoning in LLMs over Expanding Search Spaces

Nicolas Astorga, Nabeel Seedat, Mihaela van der Schaar

展开摘要

Verifiable reward training has improved mathematical and coding reasoning, but these domains capture only part of step-by-step decision making. Many real-world tasks require finding a high-value feasible plan among many valid alternatives. We introduce $\text{OPT}\star$, a scalable family of optimization-style tasks for training and evaluating LLM step-by-step optimization-like reasoning along a complexity axis: each task provides a feasibility checker and evaluator, while a complexity parameter expands the search space without requiring new human labels. This motivates studying these tasks in two regimes: (i) solver-guided online policy optimization, which uses a solver as a value oracle for partial states and applies rank-based reward shaping to reinforce better next steps, and (ii) search-based offline RL when such solvers are unavailable. Theoretically, we relate success in large search spaces to the information a reasoner extracts per unit of search budget. Empirically, we ablate the ingredients that make search efficient on $\text{OPT}\star$ and show that training on $\text{OPT}\star$ improves step-by-step optimization-like reasoning.

Poster
Stein Transport for Generative Modeling

Clémentine CHAZAL, Linfeng Wang, Anna Korba, Nikolas Nüsken

展开摘要

We propose a nonparametric, kernel-based approach to generative modeling based on Stein operators and particle transport. Our method constructs a continuous-time transport from a simple reference distribution (typically, a standard Gaussian) to a target distribution using a Stein formulation of the continuity equation. Unlike alternative Stein transport methods, which require access to the target density or its gradient, we focus on the sample-only setting and introduce a tractable surrogate objective based on an Ornstein--Uhlenbeck (OU) probability path. This construction allows the velocity field driving the transport to be learned using only samples from the target distribution and Gaussian noise. By restricting the velocity field to a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, we obtain closed-form solutions via kernel ridge regression at each time step. The resulting method is particularly well suited to small data regimes, where heavily parameterised neural generative models may be difficult to train or overfit. We demonstrate the usefulness of the approach for sample-based generative modeling in the small data regime (generative data augmentation), and for posterior emulation in Bayesian inverse problems, where expensive Monte Carlo samplers produce limited sets of posterior samples that must be efficiently augmented.

Poster
Stein Kernelized Molecular Dynamics for Active Learning of Interatomic Potentials

Joanna Zou, Fraser Birks, Dallas Foster, Youssef Marzouk

展开摘要

Machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) enable efficient and accurate atomistic simulations but depend critically on the quality and diversity of the training data. We introduce Stein kernelized molecular dynamics (SKMD), an enhanced sampling method that uses interacting particle dynamics to acquire informative training configurations for the active learning and fine-tuning of MLIPs. SKMD corresponds to a stochastic variant of Stein variational gradient descent that is adapted for molecular dynamics by incorporating asynchronous particle updates and a kernel of global atomic descriptors, which provides a symmetry-aware measure of configurational similarity. Unlike other enhanced samplers used in molecular dynamics, SKMD preserves the Boltzmann distribution as the asymptotic distribution of the dynamics. This property enforces a balance between the exploration of diverse configurations and attraction toward high-probability regions of the energy landscape. We further propose an approach to efficient online data acquisition using an adaptive stopping criterion that selects non-redundant training data over the course of simulation. We demonstrate SKMD for the active learning of a neural network model of the Muller-Brown potential and the fine-tuning of a MACE interatomic potential for alanine dipeptide. Compared to active learning baselines, our method achieves higher model accuracy in fewer training iterations, with the same number of acquired training samples.

Poster
Steering Frozen LLMs: Adaptive Social Alignment via Online Prompt Routing

Zeyu Zhang, Xiangxiang Dai, Ziyi Han, Xutong Liu, John C. S. Lui

展开摘要

Large language models (LLMs) are typically governed by post-training alignment (e.g., RLHF or DPO), which yields a largely static policy during deployment and inference. However, real-world safety is a full-lifecycle problem: static defenses degrade against evolving jailbreak behaviors, and fixed weights cannot adapt to pluralistic, time-varying safety norms. This motivates inference-time governance that steers behavior without costly retraining. To address this, we introduce the Consensus Clustering LinUCB Bandit (CCLUB), a unified framework for adaptive social alignment via system-prompt routing. CCLUB employs a conservative consensus clustering mechanism: it pools data only within the intersection of utility and safety similarity graphs, effectively preventing unsafe generalization across semantically proximal but risk-divergent contexts. Our theoretical analysis gives an expected regret bound $O\left(d\log T/(p_{\min}\gamma^2\lambda_x) + d\sqrt{MT}\log T\right)$, separating the logarithmic cost of identifying safe consensus clusters from the dominant cluster-level exploitation term. Experiments show that CCLUB improves the safety--utility trade-off and offline deployment gap, and improves cumulative reward by 10.98\% over the strongest non-prototype baseline.

Poster
Steering Fields: Adaptive Vector Fields for Safe Image Generation and Beyond

Simone Facchiano, Jan Eric Lenssen, Bernt Schiele, Wolfgang Stammer, Fabio Galasso, Jonas Fischer

展开摘要

As state-of-the-art text-to-image flow models have matured to deliver near-photorealistic quality, controlling what they generate -- e.g., inhibiting harmful content while promoting benign alternatives -- has become a central challenge. The current steering paradigm consists of adding a global steering vector to selected model activations. While functional, a fixed vector applied example-agnostic and uniformly along the entire trajectory cannot adapt to the changing state of the generation, and causes uncontrolled global changes beyond the targeted concepts. We introduce Steering Fields, a generalization of steering vectors that adaptively re-estimates the steering direction at each step of the generative process. Steering Fields operate on latent representations, expose a continuous trade-off between steering strength and content preservation, and are compositional, enabling the simultaneous induction and inhibition of concepts, setting a new state of the art on safety steering benchmarks. Although our formulation prescribes no explicit spatial mask or object-level prior, the trajectory-adaptive estimation naturally preserves local structure, in a manner reminiscent of image editing. In fact, when applied in the VAE latent space, Steering Fields can serve as a structure-preserving image-editing technique that achieves state-of-the-art semantic fidelity (CLIP, VQAScore), while remaining model-agnostic and inversion-free

Poster
Steering Externalities: Benign Activation Steering Unintentionally Increases Jailbreak Risk for Large Language Models

Chen Xiong, Zhiyuan He, Pin-Yu Chen, Ching-Yun Ko, Tsung-Yi Ho

展开摘要

Activation steering is a practical post-training model alignment technique to enhance the utility of Large Language Models (LLMs). Prior to deploying a model as a service, developers can steer a pre-trained model toward specific behavioral objectives, such as better truthfulness, or reasoning ability, without the need for retraining. Conceptually, these methods implement behavior control through hidden-state interventions, without changing the underlying model parameters. However, this capability unintentionally introduces critical and under-explored safety risks. We identify a phenomenon termed **Steering Externalities**, where steering vectors derived from benign datasets—such as reducing harmless refusals, improving structured-output following, truthfulness, and reasoning performance—inadvertently erode safety guardrails. Experiments reveal that these interventions act as a force multiplier, creating new vulnerabilities to jailbreaks and increasing attack success rates to over 80\% on standard benchmarks by bypassing the initial safety alignment. Ultimately, our results expose a critical blind spot in deployment: benign activation steering can erode the ``safety margin,'' rendering models more vulnerable to black-box attacks and indicating that inference-time utility improvements must be rigorously audited for unintended safety externalities.

Poster
SteerVTE: Seamless Video Text Editing with Style and Glyph Control

Kai Zeng, Moran Li, Zhengwei Wang, Yingchen Yu, Yiheng Lin, Ruichuan An, Ming Lu, Qi She, Wentao Zhang

展开摘要

Visual text editing aims to precisely modify text in images and videos while preserving stylistic consistency and visual realism. Despite significant advances in the image domain, video text editing remains largely unexplored: it is a localized task demanding stroke-level precision within small text regions, which compounds the challenges of cross-frame accuracy, temporal coherence, and stylistic fidelity. We introduce SteerVTE, a unified framework that \underline{\textbf{steer}}s a frozen video diffusion model to perform precise \underline{\textbf{V}}ideo \underline{\textbf{T}}ext \underline{\textbf{E}}diting through style and glyph control. Built on a frozen diffusion transformer, SteerVTE attaches a lightweight text context adapter with two complementary modules: a style encoder capturing the original text's visual attributes, and dual-granularity glyph encoders encoding the target text at both the line and character levels. To overcome the inherently weak text rendering priors of video foundation models, we further propose a glyph-aware spatial-focal loss and a three-stage progressive training curriculum that scales from image to video data. To support large-scale training, we also develop an automatic synthesis pipeline and construct SteerVTE-1M, a dataset of one million triplets spanning diverse scenes, fonts, and stylistic effects. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SteerVTE substantially outperforms existing video editing baselines across text accuracy, style consistency, and temporal coherence. Our anonymous project website is available at \url{https://steervte-paper.github.io}.

Poster
SteerCast: Retrieval-Based Latent Steering for Decoder-Only Time Series Forecasting

Van Dai Do, Huu H Nguyen, Minh Hoang Nguyen, Hung Le

展开摘要

Time series forecasting aims to predict future values from historical observations and auxiliary features. We propose \textbf{SteerCast}, a retrieval-based latent steering method that improves decoder-only forecaster at inference time, without updating its parameters. SteerCast constructs a database from the training set by storing a representation of each history window together with a \emph{steering vector} computed in the forecaster's latent space, defined as the difference between representations induced by the ground-truth continuation and by the model's own prediction. At test time, SteerCast retrieves nearest neighbors for a query history, aggregates their steering vectors, and injects the resulting signal into the forecaster's hidden states at every step of autoregressive generation, guiding predictions toward trajectories consistent with similar training cases. Experiments across diverse multivariate benchmarks and multiple horizons show that SteerCast consistently improves forecasting accuracy over the fine-tuned backbone and retrieval-based baselines, while requiring no additional training beyond the original fine-tuning and using only the training set as a retrieval corpus.

Poster
Steer2Edit: From Activation Steering to Component-Level Editing

Chung-En Sun, Ge Yan, Zimo Wang, Lily Weng

展开摘要

Steering methods influence Large Language Model behavior by identifying semantic directions in hidden representations, and are typically realized through inference-time activation interventions that apply a fixed, global modification to the model's internal states. While effective, such interventions often induce unfavorable attribute--utility trade-offs under strong control, as they ignore the fact that many behaviors are governed by a small and heterogeneous subset of model components. To alleviate the trade-offs, we propose Steer2Edit, a theoretically grounded, training-free framework that transforms steering vectors from inference-time control signals into diagnostic signals for component-level rank-1 weight editing. Instead of uniformly injecting a steering direction during generation, Steer2Edit selectively redistributes behavioral influence across individual attention heads and MLP neurons, yielding interpretable edits that preserve the standard forward pass and remain compatible with optimized parallel inference. Across multiple tasks including safety alignment, truthfulness promotion, and reasoning efficiency, Steer2Edit consistently achieves a superior attribute--utility trade-offs: at matched downstream performance, it outperforms the strongest steering baseline by 17.2% in safety, 9.8% in truthfulness, and 12.2% in reasoning length reduction. Overall, Steer2Edit provides a principled bridge between representation steering and weight editing by translating steering signals into interpretable, training-free parameter updates.

Poster
Steer-to-Detect: Probing Hidden Representations for Detection of LLM-Generated Texts

Luxu LIANG, Xiang Li

展开摘要

The rapid advancement of large language models (LLMs) has made machine-generated text increasingly difficult to distinguish from human-written text. While recent studies explore leveraging internal representations of language models to uncover deeper detection signals, these raw features often exhibit substantial overlap between classes, limiting their discriminative power. To address this challenge, we propose Steer-to-Detect (\texttt{S2D}), a two-stage framework for detecting LLM-generated text. In the first stage, \texttt{S2D} learns a steering vector that is injected into the hidden states of a frozen observer LLM, producing representations with improved class separability. In the second stage, detection is performed via a hypothesis testing procedure based on the steered representations. We establish finite-sample, high-probability guarantees for Type I and Type II errors, providing a theoretical characterization of the procedure. Empirically, \texttt{S2D} achieves strong and consistent performance across a range of settings, including out-of-distribution scenarios and adversarial perturbations.

Poster
Stealthy World Model Manipulation via Data Poisoning

Yibin Hu, Zizhan Zheng

展开摘要

Model-based learning agents use learned world models to predict future states, plan actions, and adapt to new environments. However, the process of updating world models from collected experience creates a training-time attack surface: adversarially poisoned fine-tuning trajectories can manipulate the learned dynamics and thereby corrupt downstream planning. In this paper, we propose SWAAP, the first two-stage data poisoning framework for learned world models. In the first stage, SWAAP identifies a harmful target world model that induces low-return behavior under planning while remaining close to clean dynamics, using first-order bilevel optimization enabled by a transition-gradient theorem. In the second stage, SWAAP realizes this target through stealth-constrained gradient matching, modifying only a limited fraction of fine-tuning transition targets so that the induced training gradients steer the victim model toward the adversarial target, while a prediction-error regularizer encourages the poisoned targets to remain close to the world model's natural approximation error. To assess attack stealthiness, we evaluate defenses and detectability across three stages of the poisoning pipeline: pre-training detection of poisoned transitions, robust training during fine-tuning, and test-time monitoring of the resulting world model. Across diverse continuous-control tasks, SWAAP causes substantial performance degradation while keeping poisoned transitions close to clean data and avoiding detection by the evaluated defenses. These results reveal a practical vulnerability in world-model adaptation pipelines and highlight the need for robustness methods that protect both world-model training data and learned dynamics.

Poster
Stealth Apart, Harm Together: Skill Cascading Attacks on Skill-Based Agent Systems

Zihao Zhu, Siwei Lyu, Adel Bibi, Baoyuan Wu

展开摘要

A skill is a modular package of natural-language instructions, executable scripts, and reference resources that an agent can load at runtime to extend its capabilities for a specific task. Skill-based agent systems therefore enable flexible reuse of third-party capabilities, but the openness of this skill ecosystem also opens up a new attack surface. Prior work has focused on vulnerabilities within individual skills, but little attention has been paid to risks that arise from interactions across skills. In this paper, we introduce skill cascading attacks, a threat paradigm in which a malicious objective is distributed across multiple skills so that each modification looks benign in isolation, yet their combined execution is harmful. For instance, in a prescription-review pipeline, the first skill weakens signals of recently discontinued medications in the extracted history, the second downgrades the severity of any drug interaction tied to them, and the third suppresses the resulting low-priority alert in the final summary, so that a severe drug-interaction warning silently disappears before reaching the physician. To systematically study this safety blind spot, we develop SkillCascade, an automated multi-agent red-teaming framework, and release SkillCascade-Bench, a benchmark of 213 validated cascading test cases across multiple agent systems and domains. Across representative agents (e.g. OpenClaw, Claude Code, CodeX) and LLM backbones, cascaded interactions reliably induce harmful behaviors while evading existing per-skill scanners and runtime monitors. Our findings highlight a gap between component-level integrity and system-level safety, and call for defenses that reason over cross-skill interactions rather than individual skills in isolation.

Poster
SteadyThought: Mitigating LLM Under-Thinking via Thought-Level Preference Optimization

Zhenyue Peng, Lin Yang, Jie Wang, Xiaoqi Ni, Hanzhu Chen, Xize Liang, Yanjun Wu, RujingWang, Kaiwen Zhou, Jianye Hao

展开摘要

Flexible switching between reasoning trajectories (i.e., thoughts switching) has significantly enhanced the reasoning capabilities of Large Reasoning Models (LRMs). However, existing models often switch excessively yet fail to sustain promising reasoning thoughts---a phenomenon termed ''under-thinking''. While recent efforts suppress switching to mitigate this, such over-correction may discard valuable trajectories. To address this challenge, we propose Steady Thought (ST), a novel thought-level preference optimization framework. ST formalizes under-thinking as a preference issue at switching points, forcing single-path continuations from identified points to yield high-quality reasoning. Then, ST performs thought-level preference optimization by treating the newly generated response as preferred and the original one as dis-preferred. Experiments across multiple models and datasets show that ST effectively reduces token consumption while maintaining or even improving accuracy. It reduces output length by up to 63.8% while improving accuracy by up to 11.4%. Further analysis suggests that ST helps models acquire a generalizable ability to reduce redundant switching across domains and languages.

Poster
Stay Fair! Ensuring Group Fairness in Diffusion Models Across Guidance Scales

Myeongsoo Kim, Eunji Kim, Minwoo Chae, Sangwoo Mo

展开摘要

Diffusion models steer conditional generation with a tunable guidance scale, which users routinely adjust to trade off prompt alignment and diversity. However, these models often reflect and amplify social biases, whose mitigation has been a long-standing concern. Current debiasing techniques are often optimized for a single guidance scale, leaving them vulnerable to fairness degradation when that scale is adjusted. We trace this behavior to a previously overlooked source by decomposing total bias into two components: a model bias and a guidance bias. While prior work primarily targets the former, we show that the guidance bias grows monotonically with the guidance scale, eventually dominating the high-guidance regimes users prefer. To address this, we extend Strong Demographic Parity to guidance and derive a condition under which the target guided distribution retains its group ratio across guidance scales. We propose StayFair, which leverages this condition to design fair guidance algorithms in both regimes. For classifier guidance, it equalizes the classifier's output distributions across groups; for classifier-free guidance, it shifts the null embedding by a prompt-dependent offset. Since StayFair modifies only guidance, it is orthogonal to model debiasing and can be layered onto existing fair diffusion models to extend their fairness across guidance scales. Across class-conditional and text-to-image generation, StayFair decouples fairness from the guidance scale without sacrificing image quality.

Poster
Statistical Query Lower Bounds for Smoothed Agnostic Learning

Ilias Diakonikolas, Daniel Kane

展开摘要

We study the complexity of smoothed agnostic learning, in which the learner competes with the best classifier in a target class under slight Gaussian perturbations of the inputs. Specifically, we focus on the prototypical task of agnostically learning halfspaces under subgaussian distributions in this model. The best known upper bound for this problem is based on $L_1$-polynomial regression and has complexity $d^{\tilde O(1/\sigma^2)\log(1/\epsilon)}$, where $\sigma$ is the smoothing parameter and $\epsilon$ is the excess error. Our main result is a Statistical Query (SQ) lower bound showing that this upper bound is close to best possible. In particular, we prove that, even for Gaussian marginals, any SQ algorithm for smoothed agnostic learning of halfspaces requires complexity $d^{\Omega(1/\sigma^2+\log(1/\epsilon))}$. This is the first non-trivial computational lower bound for this task, and it nearly matches the known upper bound. At a conceptual level, we show that the complexity of the problem is governed by the low-degree $L_1$ approximation of the smoothed target $T_\sigma f$, so that applying $L_1$-polynomial regression to the smoothed function is essentially optimal in the SQ model. Our proof proceeds by constructing a moment-matching hard distribution via linear programming duality; the dual program corresponds exactly to finding a low-degree approximating polynomial for $T_\sigma f$, which is the same approximation-theoretic condition underlying the upper bound. To instantiate this framework for halfspaces, we prove explicit lower bounds on the approximation degree of the smoothed sign function. A key ingredient is a new structural result: we construct a distribution that matches moments with a Gaussian while exhibiting periodic structure. This result underlies our $1/\sigma^2$-degree lower bound and may be of independent interest.

Poster
Statistical Mixing Guarantees for Contractive Echo State Networks

Pradeep Singh, Balasubramanian Raman

展开摘要

Reservoir computing turns sequence learning into linear regression on fixed dynamical features, but those features come from a single highly dependent trajectory, so the true amount of usable data is often unclear. We develop a transport-based learning theory for contractive echo state networks driven by stochastic inputs by viewing the reservoir as a Markov process and proving a Wasserstein contraction that guarantees a unique stationary state law and explicit mixing rates. Using contraction-to-concentration tools, we obtain finite-sample deviation bounds for time-averaged features and empirical covariance estimates, and translate them into excess-risk and stability guarantees for ridge-trained linear readouts. The theory yields an explicit effective-sample-size principle and exposes a sharp trade-off: making reservoirs more “critical” can increase dynamical memory while slowing mixing and raising the data requirements for reliable training. Overall, the results complement echo-state and capacity analyses by providing verifiable design rules that link stability parameters to mixing time, generalization, and forecasting robustness under independent or weakly dependent inputs.

Poster
Statistical Inference in Causal Partial Identification under Smooth Densities

Sirui Lin, Zijun Gao, Jose Blanchet, Peter W. Glynn

展开摘要

Many causal quantities are only partially identifiable due to the inherent missingness of potential outcomes, and the associated partial identification (PI) sets can be obtained by solving an optimal transport (OT) problem. Covariates often provide additional information about the potential outcomes and thus yield tighter PI sets, which can be obtained via conditional optimal transport (COT). However, COT-based PI set estimators are susceptible to the curse of dimensionality in the covariates, which precludes the asymptotic normality and hinders statistical inference. In this paper, we exploit the smoothness in the marginal densities of covariates and potential outcomes, and develop a wavelet-based primal approach for COT that attains a faster convergence rate. Moreover, for quadratic cost functions, we establish a stability result for COT and prove asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator, enabling valid statistical inference for the PI set. Empirically, we validate the estimation and inference performance of our approach through numerical experiments in comparison with existing benchmarks.

Poster
Statistical Estimation of Adversarial Risk in Large Language Models under Best-of-N Sampling

Mingqian Feng, Xiaodong Liu, Weiwei Yang, Chenliang Xu, Christopher White, Jianfeng Gao

展开摘要

Large Language Models (LLMs) are typically evaluated for safety under single-shot or low-budget adversarial prompting, which underestimates real-world risk. In practice, attackers can exploit large-scale parallel sampling to repeatedly probe a model until a harmful response is produced. While recent work shows that attack success increases with repeated sampling, principled methods for predicting large-scale adversarial risk remain limited. We propose a scaling-aware Best-of-N estimation of risk, SABER, for modeling jailbreak vulnerability under Best-of-N sampling. We model sample-level success probabilities using a Beta distribution, the conjugate prior of the Bernoulli distribution, and derive an analytic scaling law that enables reliable extrapolation of large-N attack success rates from small-budget measurements. Using only n=200 samples, our anchored estimator predicts ASR@1000 with a mean absolute error of 1.44, compared to 6.58 for the baseline, which is a 78.1% reduction in estimation error. Our results reveal heterogeneous risk scaling profiles and show that models appearing robust under standard evaluation can experience rapid nonlinear risk amplification under parallel adversarial pressure. This work provides a low-cost, scalable methodology for realistic LLM safety assessment. We provide our code in the Supplementary Material.

Poster