NeurIPS 2026 论文列表

Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems

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Privacy Meets Hierarchy: Differentially Private Distributed Trilevel Learning

Yang Jiao, Kai Yang

展开摘要

Trilevel learning has emerged as a powerful paradigm across various domains in machine learning and networking. In practical scenarios, data is frequently generated and distributed across multiple decentralized nodes. While existing distributed trilevel learning methods circumvent the transmission of raw data, they remain susceptible to privacy leakage. Furthermore, cutting plane methods, which are widely adopted in bilevel and trilevel learning, exhibit analogous intrinsic privacy risks. To address these critical issues, we propose a Differentially Private Distributed Trilevel Optimization (DPDTO) framework. In DPDTO, we first develop a value-function-embedded privacy-preserving cutting plane method for trilevel optimization problems, comprising an inner-layer value function reformulation and an outer-layer cutting plane relaxation. Building upon this, a distributed optimization algorithm is introduced to effectively address trilevel optimization while preserving privacy. Theoretically, we provide a comprehensive analysis for the proposed framework, including asymptotic convergent relaxation, non-asymptotic convergence rate, privacy guarantees, and communication complexity, uncovering a tripartite trade-off among privacy, utility, and complexity in trilevel optimization. Extensive experimental results on two distributed trilevel optimization problems further demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed DPDTO.

Poster
Practical Adversarial Attacks on Stochastic Bandits via Fake Data Injection

Qirun Zeng, Eric He, Richard Hoffmann, Xuchuang Wang, Jinhang Zuo

展开摘要

Adversarial attacks on stochastic bandits have traditionally relied on some unrealistic assumptions, such as per-round reward manipulation and unbounded perturbations, limiting their relevance to real-world systems. We propose a more practical threat model, Fake Data Injection, which reflects realistic adversarial constraints: the attacker can inject only a limited number of bounded fake feedback samples into the learner's history, simulating legitimate interactions. We design effective attack strategies under this model, explicitly addressing both magnitude constraints (on reward values) and temporal constraints (on when and how often data can be injected). Our theoretical analysis shows that these attacks can mislead a class of bandit algorithms into selecting a target arm in nearly all rounds while incurring only sublinear attack cost. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets validate the effectiveness of our strategies, revealing vulnerabilities in stochastic bandit algorithms under practical adversarial scenarios.

Poster
Poisoning Attacks on LLMs Require a Near-constant Number of Poison Samples

Alexandra Souly, Javier Rando, Ed Chapman, Xander Davies, Burak Hasircioglu, Ezzeldin Shereen, Carlos Mougan, Vasilios Mavroudis, Erik Jones, Chris Hicks, Nicholas Carlini, Yarin Gal, Robert Kirk

展开摘要

Poisoning attacks can compromise the safety of large language models (LLMs) by injecting malicious documents into their training data. Existing work has studied pretraining poisoning assuming adversaries control a percentage of the training corpus. However, for large models, even small percentages translate to impractically large amounts of data. This work demonstrates for the first time that poisoning attacks instead require a near-constant number of documents regardless of dataset size. We conduct the largest pretraining poisoning experiments to date, pretraining models from 600M to 13B parameters on chinchilla-optimal datasets (6B to 260B tokens). We find that 250 poisoned documents similarly compromise models across all model and dataset sizes, despite the largest models training on more than 20 times more clean data. We also run smaller-scale experiments to ablate factors that could influence attack success, including broader ratios of poisoned to clean data and non-random distributions of poisoned samples. Finally, we demonstrate the same dynamics for poisoning during fine-tuning. Altogether, our results suggest that injecting backdoors through data poisoning may be easier for large models than previously believed as the number of poisons required does not scale up with model size—highlighting the need for more research on defences to mitigate this risk in future models.

Spotlight
Neural Reconstruction of LiDAR Point Clouds under Jamming Attacks via Full-Waveform Representation and Simultaneous Laser Sensing

Ryo Yoshida, TAKAMI SATO, Wenlun Zhang, Yuki Hayakawa, Shota Nagai, Kazuma Ikeda

展开摘要

LiDAR sensors are critical for autonomous driving perception, yet remain vulnerable to spoofing attacks. Jamming attacks inject high-frequency laser pulses that completely blind LiDAR sensors by overwhelming authentic returns with malicious signals. We discover that while point clouds become randomized, the underlying full-waveform data retains distinguishable signatures between attack and legitimate signals. In this work, we propose PULSAR-Net, capable of reconstructing authentic point clouds under jamming attacks by leveraging previously underutilized intermediate full-waveform representations and simultaneous laser sensing in modern LiDAR systems. PULSAR-Net adopts a novel U-Net architecture with axial spatial attention mechanisms specifically designed to identify attack-induced signals from authentic object returns in the full-waveform representation. To address the lack of full-waveform representations in existing LiDAR datasets under jamming attacks, we introduce a physics-aware dataset generation pipeline that synthesizes realistic full-waveform representations under jamming attacks. Despite being trained exclusively on synthetic data, PULSAR-Net achieves reconstruction rates of 92\% and 73\% for vehicles obscured by jamming attacks in real-world static and driving scenarios, respectively.

Poster
MVPISplat: Multi-View Photometric Inconsistency for Defending 3D Gaussian Splatting Attacks

Md Mahedi Hasan Rigan, Nicole Meng, Miao Yin, Yingjie Lao, Faysal Hossain Shezan

展开摘要

3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) achieves real-time photorealistic novel-view synthesis but is vulnerable to adversarial perturbations of its training images. Recent attacks inflate the Gaussian count to exhaust GPU memory or corrupt rendered scenes to mislead downstream classifiers. We find that both attacks have the same structural signature: 2D image adversarial perturbations are not 3D-consistent by design. The Gaussians generated to match them provide erroneous contributions in some views while making significant contributions in others. We propose Multi-View Photometric Inconsistency (MVPI) Defense that scores each Gaussian by the variance of its opacity-weighted local $\mathcal{L}_1$ contribution across a stratified set of training views. The most inconsistent are soft-pruned via 3DGS's existing opacity threshold method. We evalute our approach on two different datasets. MVPI reduces peak Gaussian count by up to $1.90\times$ and training time by $1.22{-}1.50\times$ under Poison-Splat attack. It also restores top-1 classification accuracy on adversarially perturbed renders from $57.4\%$ to $66.5\%$. Our code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/PruneDefense-2876/README.md.

Poster
MPCI-Bench: A Benchmark for Multimodal Pairwise Contextual Integrity Privacy Evaluation of Language Model Agents

Shouju Wang, Haopeng Zhang

展开摘要

As language-model agents evolve from passive chatbots into proactive assistants that handle personal data, evaluating their adherence to social norms becomes increasingly critical, often through the lens of Contextual Integrity (CI). However, existing CI benchmarks are largely text-centric and primarily emphasize negative refusal scenarios, overlooking multimodal privacy risks and the fundamental trade-off between privacy and utility. In this paper, we introduce MPCI-Bench, the first Multimodal Pairwise Contextual Integrity benchmark for evaluating privacy behavior in agentic settings. MPCI-Bench consists of paired positive and negative instances derived from the same visual source and instantiated across three tiers: normative Seed judgments, context-rich Story reasoning, and executable agent action Traces. Data quality is ensured through a Tri-Principle Iterative Refinement pipeline. Evaluations of state-of-the-art multimodal models reveal systematic failures to balance privacy and utility and a pronounced modality leakage gap, where sensitive visual information is leaked more frequently than textual information.

Poster
Local FDR Membership Inference Attacks: Multiple Testing and the Role of Ridge Regularization

Jinyoung Hong, Bonwoo Lee, Jeongyoun Ahn

展开摘要

Membership inference attacks (MIAs) are commonly formulated as single-sample hypothesis tests with false positive rate control. However, realistic adversaries often test many candidate samples and aggregate the declared members, making membership inference a multiple testing problem. In this regime, per-sample calibration can produce unreliable sets of inferred members. We develop a false discovery rate (FDR)-controlled framework for membership inference based on the classical local FDR formulation. We instantiate the framework for high dimensional ridge regression. Under a conditional sufficiency condition, we establish FDR guarantee of the proposed method, and derive an asymptotic characterization of its detection power in high-dimensional regimes under an isotropic Gaussian design. Our analysis shows that, under FDR control, stronger ridge regularization reduces membership inference risk. Experiments on synthetic and a real-world dataset validate the theoretical findings and demonstrate that the proposed methods provide more reliable membership discoveries than existing attacks.

Poster
Leveraging Soft Prompts for Privacy Attacks in Federated Prompt Tuning

Quan M. Nguyen, Min-Seon Kim, Hoang M Ngo, Nghia Hoang, Hyuk-Yoon Kwon, My T. Thai

展开摘要

Membership inference attacks (MIAs) pose a serious privacy threat in federated learning (FL). While MIAs have been extensively studied in standard FL, the recent shift toward federated fine-tuning introduces new and largely unexplored attack surfaces. In this work, we show that federated prompt-tuning, which adapts pre-trained foundation models using lightweight input prefixes, exposes a novel and effective vector for membership inference. We propose PromptMIA, a membership inference attack tailored to federated prompt-tuning, in which a malicious server introduces adversarially crafted prompts and exploits their updates during collaborative training to determine whether a target data point belongs to a client’s private dataset. We formalize this threat via a security game and demonstrate that PromptMIA achieves consistently high attack advantage across diverse benchmark datasets, substantially outperforming current SOTA federated MIAs. We also provide a theoretical lower bound on the attack advantage that explains the observed empirical behavior. Finally, we show that existing MIA defenses are often ineffective against PromptMIA, highlighting the need for defense mechanisms specifically tailored to prompt-tuning in federated settings.

Poster
Learning the Signature of Memorization in Autoregressive Language Models

David Ilić, Kostadin Cvejoski, David Stanojević, Evgeny Grigorenko

展开摘要

All prior membership inference attacks for fine-tuned language models use hand-crafted heuristics (e.g., loss thresholding, Min-K\%, reference calibration), each bounded by the designer's intuition. We introduce the first transferable learned attack, enabled by the observation that fine-tuning any model on any corpus yields unlimited labeled data, since membership is known by construction. This removes the shadow model bottleneck and brings membership inference into the deep learning era: learning what matters rather than designing it, with generalization through training diversity and scale. We discover that fine-tuning language models produces an invariant signature of memorization detectable across architectural families and data domains. We train a membership inference classifier exclusively on transformer-based models. It transfers zero-shot to Mamba (state-space), RWKV-4 (linear attention), and RecurrentGemma (gated recurrence), achieving 0.963, 0.972, and 0.936 AUC respectively. Each evaluation combines an architecture and dataset never seen during training, yet all three exceed performance on held-out transformers (0.908 AUC). These four families share no computational mechanisms, their only commonality is gradient descent on cross-entropy loss. Even simple likelihood-based methods exhibit strong transfer, confirming the signature exists independently of the detection method. Our method, Learned Transfer MIA (LT-MIA), captures this signal most effectively by reframing membership inference as sequence classification over per-token distributional statistics. On transformers, LT-MIA achieves 2.8$\times$ higher true positive rate at 0.1\% false positive rate than the strongest baseline. The method also transfers to code (0.865 AUC) despite training only on natural language texts. Our results imply that leakage from memorization is intrinsic to cross-entropy training; architectural innovation within this paradigm did not escape our attack. Code and the trained classifier are provided.

Poster
Learning Robust Representations for Defending White-Box Adversarial Attacks in Continual Learning

Yusen Chen, Fei YE, Qihe Liu, Adrian G. Bors, Shijie Zhou

展开摘要

Continual learning under adversarial perturbations remains underexplored, despite its importance in security-critical deployments where attack patterns evolve over time. Existing continual adversarial defense methods mainly rely on replay or prediction-space regularization, but often fail to preserve robust representations across sequentially arriving attack types. In this paper, we study continual adversarial defense, where a model receives a sequence of tasks induced by different white-box attacks and must acquire robustness to new attacks without forgetting previously learned defenses. We address this challenging learning scenario by proposing the Learning Robust Representation Framework (LRRF), a representation-centric framework that improves robustness through hierarchical alignment at three complementary levels. First, we introduce the Dynamic Representation Matching (DRM) mechanism that aligns clean and adversarial feature distributions within each task to reduce the clean-robustness trade-off. Second, a Cross-Task Invariant Representation (CTIR) mechanism is proposed to regularize the current representation network against an accumulated network from previous tasks, encouraging attack-invariant features to persist over time. Third, a Knowledge Consolidation Optimization (KCO) mechanism is proposed to match class-consistent clean and adversarial features using replayed samples, which further stabilizes category structure across tasks. The empirical results show that the proposed approach achieves state-of-the-art performance.

Poster
Learning Lotteries with Minimal Violations from Membership Queries

Paul W. Goldberg, Nicholas Teh

展开摘要

We study how to choose a probability distribution, or lottery, over $m$ alternatives for $n$ agents when each agent's acceptable lotteries form an unknown linear halfspace of the simplex. The learner observes only binary accept/reject membership queries. Prior work asks whether there exists a lottery accepted by every agent; we study the relaxation that minimizes the number of agents who reject the lottery. We first show that this problem is APX-hard even when all halfspaces are explicitly known and scores are binary. We then give exact algorithms under additional structure: fixed $m$, and a margin condition under which an optimal lottery can be replaced by one supported on $\mathcal{O}(\log n/\gamma^2)$ alternatives. With limited queries, uniform sampling of agents gives additive population guarantees after recovering the sampled agents' normalized halfspaces. For arbitrary $m$, we give a polynomial-time LP based on a one-sided margin penalty and prove a population guarantee depending on the number of true violations and the number of agents near their thresholds. Finally, we prove a tight deterministic lower bound: without a stochastic link between queried and unqueried agents, querying only $K$ distinct agents cannot guarantee additive gap below $n-K$, and this gap is achievable.

Poster
Latent-space Attacks for Refusal Evasion in Language Models

Giorgio Piras, Raffaele Mura, Fabio Brau, Maura Pintor, Luca Oneto, Fabio Roli, Battista Biggio

展开摘要

Safety-aligned language models are trained to refuse harmful requests, yet refusal behavior can be suppressed by steering their internal representations. Existing methods do so by ablating a refusal direction from model activations, aiming to remove refusal from the model’s residual stream. Despite their empirical success, these methods lack a principled account of the latent-space transformation they induce and why it suppresses refusal. In this work, we recast refusal suppression as a latent-space evasion attack against linear probes trained to separate refused from answered prompts. Under this view, prior work’s difference-in-means direction naturally defines such a probe, and its ablation is exactly a projection onto its decision boundary, i.e., a minimum-confidence evasion attack. This perspective not only explains the empirical success of prior work but also admits a key limitation: evasion stops at the decision boundary, motivating the need to push representations further into the compliant region, i.e., where the model answers. We leverage this by proposing a Controlled Latent-space Evasion attack that projects representations past the boundary with an optimized confidence. We achieve state-of-the-art attack success rate across 15 instruction-tuned, multimodal, and reasoning models, outperforming existing refusal-ablation baselines and specialized jailbreak attacks.

Poster
Improved Regret bounds in Tabular Reinforcement Learning under Local Differential Privacy

Hugo Richard

展开摘要

We study regret minimization for time-homogeneous episodic tabular reinforcement learning with $S$ states and $A$ actions under non-interactive $\epsilon$-local differential privacy (LDP). In each episode $k \in [K]$, the decision-maker sends a policy to a user, the user executes the policy for $H$ steps, and sends an $\epsilon$-locally differentially private message back to the decision-maker. When $H=1$, the problem reduces to an LDP contextual bandit with $S$ contexts, $A$ arms and horizon $K$. We prove that the minimax regret is $\min\bigg(K, \frac{ \sqrt{\max( S, \exp(\epsilon) + 1) S A K (\exp(\epsilon) + 1)}}{\exp(\epsilon) - 1}\bigg)$, up to constants and a $\sqrt{\log(A)}$ factor. The upper bound is achieved by an adaptation of EXP3 and a unary encoding mechanism. When $H > 1$, and for small $\epsilon$, we show a lower bound in $\Omega(HS\frac{\sqrt{A K}}{\epsilon})$ and an upper bound in $\tilde{O}(H^2 S^2 \frac{\sqrt{ AK}}{\epsilon})$. The upper bound is achieved by an algorithm based on UCBVI and a unary encoding mechanism. For small $\epsilon$, these bounds improve the previously known lower bound by a factor $\sqrt{S}$ and the previously known upper bound by a factor of $H \sqrt{A}$.

Poster
How Far Are VLMs from Privacy Awareness in the Physical World? An Empirical Study

Junran Wang, Xinjie Shen, Zehao Jin, Pan Li

展开摘要

As Vision-Language Models (VLMs) are increasingly deployed as autonomous cognitive cores for embodied assistants, evaluating their privacy awareness in physical environments becomes critical. Unlike digital chatbots, these agents operate in intimate spaces, such as homes and hospitals, where they possess the physical agency to observe and manipulate privacy-sensitive information and artifacts. However, current benchmarks remain limited to unimodal, text-based representations that cannot capture the demands of real-world settings. To bridge this gap, we present ImmersedPrivacy, an interactive audio-visual evaluation framework that simulates realistic physical environments using a Unity-based simulator. ImmersedPrivacy evaluates physically grounded privacy awareness across three progressive tiers that test a model's ability to identify sensitive items in cluttered scenes, adapt to shifting social contexts, and resolve conflicts between explicit commands and inferred privacy constraints. Our evaluation of 12 state-of-the-art models reveals consistent deficits. In cluttered scenes, all models exhibit monotonic performance decay as scene complexity grows due to perceptual deficit. When social context shifts, no model exceed 65% selection accuracy. Under conflicting commands, the best model gemini-3.1-pro perfectly balances task completion and privacy preservation in only 51% of cases. These findings reveal that current VLMs in the physical world suffer from perceptual fragility and fail to let their knowledge of privacy cues govern their situated behavior. Our code and data is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/immersed-privacy-review-3A3C.

Poster
HelpBench: Assessing the Ability of LLMs to Provide Privacy, Safety, and Security Advice

Sarah Meiklejohn, Sunny Consolvo, Patrick G Kelley, Tara Matthews, Sai Teja Peddinti, Renee Shelby, Lenin Simicich, Kurt Thomas

展开摘要

People increasingly turn to large language models (LLMs) for advice on numerous aspects of their lives. This paper investigates LLM capabilities in responding to questions about digital privacy, safety, and security, such as regaining access to a lost or suspended account, removing malware from a device, dealing with scammers or technology-facilitated abuse, and more. We curated a benchmark of 450 questions representing authentic user situations and developed rubrics for each question to evaluate factual accuracy and tone-based qualities of a response. We then developed and applied an auto-rater to evaluate responses from 18 state-of-the-art LLMs. Our results indicate that while models provide high-quality advice (with scores of 82\% on average), all models have significant room to improve, especially when tailoring advice to complex or high-risk scenarios.

Poster
HPE: Hallucinated Positive Entanglement for Backdoor Attacks in Federated Self-Supervised Learning

Jiayao Wang, Yang Song, Zhendong Zhao, Jiale Zhang, Xiaoying Lei, Qilin Wu, Wenliang Yuan, Junwu Zhu, Dongfang Zhao

展开摘要

Federated self-supervised learning (FSSL) enables collaborative training of self-supervised representation models without sharing raw unlabeled data. While it serves as a crucial paradigm for privacy-preserving learning, its security remains vulnerable to backdoor attacks, where malicious clients manipulate local training to inject targeted backdoors. Existing FSSL attack methods, however, often suffer from low utilization of poisoned samples, limited transferability, and weak persistence. To address these limitations, we propose a new backdoor attack method for FSSL, namely Hallucinated Positive Entanglement (HPE). HPE first employs hallucination-based augmentation using synthetic positive samples to enhance the encoder’s embedding of backdoor features. It then introduces feature entanglement to enforce tight binding between triggers and backdoor samples in the representation space. Finally, selective parameter poisoning and proximity-aware updates constrain the poisoned model within the vicinity of the global model, enhancing its stability and persistence. Experimental results on several FSSL scenarios and datasets show that HPE significantly outperforms existing backdoor attack methods in performance and exhibits strong robustness under various defense mechanisms.

Poster
Guarding the Life Code: Preserving Membership Privacy in Genomic Foundation Models

Xinyu Zhao, Jinhao Duan, Zhen Tan, Tianlong Chen

展开摘要

Genomic Foundation Models (GFMs) have become a promising paradigm for decoding DNA sequences, yet their privacy risks are critically underexplored.Trained on human cohorts, GFMs can unintentionally memorize sensitive genomic signatures, that enable membership inference attacks (MIAs) and expose individuals to long-lasting privacy harms.However, existing defenses often fall short in genomics: globally applied mechanisms can substantially degrade motif-sensitive utility, and model-agnostic post-processing provides limited insight into which genomic regions drive leakage. Through a systematic privacy audit, we find that membership leakage in GFMs is highly non-uniform, concentrating on a small subset of high-risk samples and sparse token spans corresponding to biologically meaningful patterns. Motivated by this finding, we propose GenoGuard, a model- and sample-adaptive defense that shifts from blanket protection to targeted, region-aware mitigation. GenoGuard (i) localizes privacy-leaking subsequences via gradient-based token attribution and performs token-level risk reduction through selective gradient routing, (ii) applies sample-level risk reduction with risk-adaptive label smoothing guided by a reference-calibrated loss gap score, and (iii) provides region-level attribution maps for privacy auditing and biological interpretation. Experiments across representative GFMs (Mistral-DNA, Nucleotide Transformer) demonstrate that GenoGuard consistently improves privacy against multiple MIA families while preserving strong fine-tuning performance and interpretability.

Poster
GitInject: Real-World Prompt Injection Attacks in AI-Powered CI/CD Pipelines

Jafar Isbarov, Umid Suleymanov, I Shumailov, Murat Kantarcioglu

展开摘要

AI agents are increasingly embedded in continuous integration and continuous delivery (CI/CD) workflows to autonomously review pull requests, triage issues, and maintain codebases. We study fully automated configurations in which external contributions invoke agents without prior human approval. Because these agents ingest untrusted content while operating with repository credentials and tools, prompt injection can have software supply chain consequences. We present GitInject, an open-source framework for evaluating prompt injection in live GitHub Actions workflows. Unlike benchmarks that simulate tool calls, GitInject provisions ephemeral repositories and executes actual workflows, exposing platform semantics such as sandbox constraints, credential handling, and permission boundaries. We use GitInject to evaluate eleven named attack scenarios across five workflows from four AI providers, covering configuration-file injection, credential exfiltration, judgment manipulation, and availability. Every provider is susceptible to at least one high-severity attack in the tested configurations. The most consequential vulnerabilities are structural: attacker-controlled configuration files from an unmerged contribution are loaded as operator-level instructions, allowing the agent--infrastructure interaction to expose credentials or corrupt review judgments. Two configuration-file attacks replicate on GitLab and Hugging Face as well as GitHub. We evaluate workflow-level countermeasures and show their coverage and utility tradeoffs. We release GitInject and all attack scenarios.

Poster
Evaluating an Evaluation: Membership Inference Attacks as Machine Unlearning Diagnostics

Umid Suleymanov, Laman Aliyeva, Nihat Abdullayev, Saida Zarbiyeva, Murat Kantarcioglu

展开摘要

Evaluation practices in machine learning are increasingly objects of scientific study in their own right: their assumptions, statistical properties, and failure modes determine which research conclusions can be trusted. We audit one such practice - the use of aggregate-subset Membership Inference Attacks (MIAs) for evaluating machine unlearning - across 8 dataset-architecture pairs, 4 unlearning methods, and over 500 experimental runs, identifying five failure modes: (1) limited and regime-dependent identifiability between baseline and retrained models, with KS-test indistinguishability ($p > 0.05$) in $\approx$42\% of experiment--task pairs; (2) regime-dependent signal-to-noise collapse; (3) monotonicity violations in 5 of 8 experiments under graded forgetting; (4) inter-task rank inconsistency, and (5) regime confounding by model training quality. To quantify these failures, we develop the Membership Inference Attack Unlearning Score (MIAU), a normalized diagnostic framework integrating three MIA comparisons as gap closure fractions between baseline and retrained references. We formalize four validity properties any unlearning metric should satisfy. Our findings indicate that aggregate-subset MIAs are reliable unlearning diagnostics only in narrow high-memorization regimes, and motivate complementary evaluation paradigms, alongside MIA-based protocols.

Poster
Estimating Model-Level Membership Inference Vulnerability Without Reference Models

Euodia Dodd, Natasa Krco, Igor Shilov, Matthew R Wicker, Yves-Alexandre de Montjoye

展开摘要

Membership inference attacks (MIAs) have emerged as the standard tool for evaluating the privacy risks of AI models. However, state-of-the-art attacks require training numerous, often computationally expensive, reference models, limiting their practicality. We present a novel approach for estimating model-level vulnerability to the Likelihood Ratio Attack (LiRA), the strongest available attack, directly from the train and test loss distributions of the target model and without training any reference models. We show that LiRA's per-sample signal decomposes into a variance-ratio term and a residual mean-shift term, with the relative contribution of each determined by how much training collapses model uncertainty at the trained sample. This places models on a continuum, with different regimes calling for different reference-free loss-based statistics as proxies for LiRA TPR. The shapes of the loss distributions themselves indicate which proxy applies. We instantiate the framework with two natural proxies. At the heavy-tailed end, the LOSS attack TNR predicts LiRA TPR@FPR=$10^{-3}$ with RMSE 0.03 across 9 image classification architectures and 4 datasets, outperforming low-cost reference-model attacks such as RMIA. At the symmetric end, the LOSS attack AUC predicts LiRA TPR with RMSE 0.01 across five GPT-2 sizes from 10M to 1B parameters. We also show these proxies to outperform both low-cost (few reference models) attacks such as RMIA and other measures of distribution difference.

Poster