NeurIPS 2026 论文列表

We study online identification of linear-in-parameter dynamical systems whose true parameters drift over time. Measuring non-stationarity through the path variation $V_T = \sum_{t=1}^{T-1}\|\theta_{t+1}^\star - \theta_t^\star\|$, we make two contributions. First, we give a clean blockwise dynamic-regret analysis for continuous projected online gradient descent, yielding $E[R_T] = O(T/\sqrt{\tilde W} + \tilde W V_T)$ and hence the oracle-tuned rate $O(T^{2/3}V_T^{1/3})$ . Second, we propose a residual-based adaptive step size and prove an oracle-proxy comparison theorem: when the residual proxy tracks the local prediction-error signal with lower-order overhead, the adaptive algorithm inherits the oracle scaling. Experiments on synthetic systems and real turbofan-engine degradation data (NASA C-MAPSS) support the matched-regime slope prediction on synthetic data, diagnose the failure regime when proxy overhead dominates, and show a clear unsupervised health-indicator trend in the residual proxy on FD001. A separate fast-rate guarantee under persistent excitation and a tube MPC integration are deferred to the appendix.

Learning a response law for continuous decisions from observational time series is central to many real-world decision systems, yet temporal non-stationarity poses a fundamental challenge: outcome levels drift over time, causing naive models that fit raw outcomes to conflate treatment effects with shifting baseline conditions. Even when the one-step response is identifiable, unrestricted cross-time generalization remains fundamentally ill-posed. Thus, we introduce a constrained decision target based on a causal action geometry with anchored link-scale morphologies. Our approach constructs anchored contrasts over a family of link functions, isolating the action-dependent component of the response that can be shared across periods while allowing flexible, period-specific calibration. This yields a morphology-restricted oracle target for continuous decision making under temporal drift. Building on this formulation, we develop a two-stage orthogonal estimator that first obtains cross-fitted pilot estimates of anchored responses and then performs honest profiled selection over morphology and representation classes. The resulting estimator admits oracle guarantees for the restricted target and, under approximate persistence, produces decision rules that remain near optimal in future periods. Experiments on synthetic data and a large-scale e-commerce pricing application support the proposed target and its decision benefits under temporal shift.

Universal adversarial perturbations (UAPs) aim to learn a single input-agnostic perturbation that consistently induces misclassification across diverse inputs, exposing systemic vulnerabilities of deep models. To enhance practical applicability, data-free UAP methods replace real data with samples drawn from handcrafted synthetic priors and optimize UAPs via activation maximization. However, existing approaches rely on a single synthetic prior throughout training, which biases optimization toward a narrow feature subspace and necessitates costly per-prior tuning. Moreover, the commonly used stochastic gradient ascent (SGA) updates are inherently unstable and tend to converge to sharp regions of the loss landscape, weakening black-box transferability. To overcome these limitations, we propose HPSR-UAP, a data-free framework that couples hybrid-prior reweighting with gradient-guided sharpness regularization. Specifically, we develop a dynamic reweighting mechanism over multiple synthetic priors to mitigate prior bias and avoid overfitting to any single distribution. Building upon this, we introduce a gradient-guided sharpness regularization that smooths the prior-weighted activation loss landscape within a local perturbation neighborhood, promoting updates towards flatter and more transferable directions. Extensive experiments on ImageNet demonstrate that HPSR-UAP outperforms state-of-the-art methods in both white-box and black-box data-free attack settings. We further introduce a multi-granularity block-wise similarity metric that quantifies spatial repetitiveness within UAPs, revealing a strong correlation between structural regularity and attack performance.

Current text-to-image diffusion models remain unreliable for culturally grounded generation, often producing incorrect or stereotyped depictions, particularly for underrepresented cultures. While prior work has largely focused on evaluation and benchmarking, improving cultural generation remains underexplored. In this work, we study cross-cultural image generation through cultural vectors, defined as the difference between fine-tuned and pretrained model parameters. We show that cultural vectors enable fine-grained control over cultural alignment and failure modes through simple scaling at inference time. We further find that deeper U-Net layers encode stronger cultural information, while cultural vectors across countries occupy largely independent directions in parameter space. However, unlike prior work on task arithmetic, naively combining cultural vectors fails to produce meaningful multi-cultural behavior due to strong interference across cultures. Motivated by this limitation, we propose Descriptor-Guided Merging (DGM), a culturally-aware merging approach that estimates cultural vectors for unseen countries using descriptor-based similarities across cultures. Experiments on two benchmarks across 16/10 countries show that cultural vectors improve generation over pretrained models by 18.9%, while DGM improves cross-cultural generalization by 4.2% over naive merging.

Prefill-Decode (PD) disaggregation improves LLM serving by isolating compute-bound prefilling and memory-bound decoding onto specialized GPU pools. However, dynamically rebalancing these pools is challenging because request arrival rates, prompt lengths, and generation lengths change over time. We formulate this autoscaling problem as latency-constrained cost minimization: the controller must minimize GPU usage while keeping P99 tail latency within TTFT and TPOT targets. Existing threshold-based heuristics require extensive parameter tuning, yet still tend to over-provision. To address this, we propose a reinforcement learning (RL) framework that learns a cost-efficient autoscaling policy. The policy uses a recurrent network to track multi-timescale workload trends and pod lifecycle states, enabling decisions that account for delayed pod readiness and delayed SLO feedback. It also restricts the action space with hard masks and anti-oscillation cooldowns, enforcing feasible scaling actions while reducing wasteful GPU transitions. We train the policy in a high-fidelity PD-disaggregated serving simulator calibrated from profiling data and validated against a physical testbed. Simulator experiments on ShareGPT and Azure Conversational traces show that the learned policy satisfies the same latency constraints as grid-searched heuristic baselines while reducing average GPU occupancy. Real-cluster deployment on ShareGPT further confirms sim-to-real transfer while satisfying the latency targets.

Traffic flow forecasting plays a pivotal role in intelligent transportation systems. However, most existing methods adopt a black-box learning paradigm, resulting in a lack of interpretability in their decision-making processes. Existing explainable methods mostly follow the feature attribution paradigm, leaving explanations at the level of static or discrete feature evidence and making it difficult to reveal the continuous evolution mechanism of spatio-temporal dependencies during dynamic traffic propagation. Meanwhile, prior methods often decouple spatial and temporal explanations, treating spatial structures and temporal dynamics independently and thus failing to capture the intrinsic coupling between spatial dependencies and temporal contexts in model decision-making. To this end, we propose STGIB, a new spatio-temporal graph information bottleneck theory for characterizing continuously evolving explanations in traffic forecasting. STGIB redefines traffic explanation as a time-indexed spatio-temporal explanation trajectory, and jointly learns dynamic key structures and their temporal representations under predictive sufficiency and information compression constraints. Furthermore, we derive tractable recursive variational bounds to make the theoretical objective optimizable, and instantiate a new explainable traffic flow forecasting model via spatio-temporal explanation trajectory generation. Experiments on real-world traffic datasets demonstrate that STGIB maintains competitive predictive performance while generating more faithful and spatio-temporally consistent explanations.

Efficient exploration in sparse-reward environments, where informative extrinsic feedback is scarce, remains a significant challenge in reinforcement learning. A key limitation of existing exploration strategies is that they often assume densely coupled environment dynamics, overlooking the underlying causal mechanisms of the environment, particularly the fact that causal relationships may vary across contexts. To address this issue, we propose contextual causal dynamics model-based intrinsic motivation (CIM), a causality-aware exploration framework that explicitly captures context-dependent sparse causal structures and derives intrinsic motivation signals, specifically causal action influence and curiosity. These intrinsic rewards encourage interventions on causally relevant state factors rather than merely promoting observation novelty-seeking behavior, thereby facilitating robust exploration and active skill acquisition. Moreover, by learning contextual causal mechanisms, CIM identifies and filters out task-irrelevant state variables, improving generalization under distribution shifts. Empirical results demonstrate that our method achieves superior sample efficiency, training robustness, and out-of-distribution generalization performance across multiple robotic manipulation tasks.

Mobile sensing for real-time anomaly detection couples routing, sampling, and stopping: dispatch determines which locations are observed, while observations update the evidence used for future dispatch. We study this problem for a fleet of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), where each UAV observes only its current location and anomalies may occur at unknown locations and times. The goal is to detect anomalies quickly while controlling false alarms under decision-dependent partial observations, local mobility, and collision-avoidance constraints. Existing quickest-detection methods typically ignore mobility and collision constraints, whereas learning-based routing methods scale to large fleets but are not designed for statistically calibrated detection. We formulate route-wise monitoring as a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) and propose DispatchPPO, a deep reinforcement learning method for long-horizon detection-aware dispatch. Its policy architecture, DispatchNet, uses autoregressive decoding with dynamic feasibility masking to generate collision-free joint UAV moves without enumerating the exponential joint action space. We establish theoretical properties for persistent coverage, evidence-based focusing, and detection delay through a resource-allocation information-rate bound. Experiments show that DispatchPPO reduces detection delay relative to heuristic and optimization-based baselines, while transferring effectively to real-robot and wildfire monitoring case studies.

Safe reinforcement learning (RL) commonly enforces expected-cost constraints, but such expectation safety may fail to control the probability of rare high-cost trajectories. Chance-constrained MDPs (CCMDPs) impose a stronger probability-level requirement, but are widely viewed as harder because the chance constraint is nonconvex and depends on the full trajectory rather than a Bellman-linear expectation. In this paper, we reveal that this computational difficulty does not imply a higher statistical price. In tabular discounted CCMDPs, we give a Bellman-certified model-based algorithm whose sample complexity matches the \emph{minimax optimal} primary dependence of classical CMDP learning, and prove a matching lower bound. Technically, our key idea is the \emph{Bellman distributional certificate}, which constructs a Bellman recursion for constraint violation probabilities before policy selection. The certificate can be reused across candidate policies, shifting concentration analysis from the number of possible policies to a finite Bellman certificate table. Building on this certificate, we establish high-probability safety and near-optimality guarantees for deterministic policy learning in discounted CCMDPs. To our knowledge, we also provide the first model-free sample complexity guarantee for stochastic policy learning in CCMDPs via variance-reduced policy gradient. Numerical experiments on synthetic CCMDPs and IEEE 14-bus energy-storage control benchmark illustrate the safety and behavior of the proposed algorithms.

In-context learning for tabular data sets strong predictive standards in observational settings; it however primarily relies on correlational structure, which becomes unreliable under distribution shift or intervention. While established methods to discover causal structure exist, they are often focused on structure identifiability and decoupled from the predictive architectures that could benefit from them. To bridge these perspectives, we study how to simultaneously infer and enforce causal structure in the form of topological variable orderings into tabular prediction. Unlike standard architectures, our model TabOrder uses causal order-constrained attention, basing predictions only on features that precede a target under a learned causal order. Similar to causal discovery methods, TabOrder learns the optimal variable ordering in an unsupervised manner through a likelihood-based objective. We justify this choice under standard functional model classes and also study how sample missingness, a common challenge in tabular data, interacts with causal direction identification. Empirically, we confirm that TabOrder recovers accurate variable orderings while addressing prediction and imputation tasks, as well as gives insight into real-world biological data under intervention.

Command line interface (CLI) agents are emerging as a practical paradigm for agent-computer interaction over evolving filesystems, executable command line programs, and online execution feedback. Recent work has used reinforcement learning (RL) to learn these interaction abilities from verifiable task feedback, yet few methods exploit the native structured attributes of CLI actions as learning signals. Beyond this underused action structure, CLI learning also couples two bottlenecks for coding agents. First, the agent must identify task-relevant evidence in a large codebase from partial observations. Second, sparse terminal rewards must be assigned to the actions that shape a long multi-turn trajectory. We study these bottlenecks through shell-driven information extraction and file editing tasks. For selective observation, we introduce $\sigma$-Reveal, an inference-time mechanism that selects token-budgeted context for the same CLI. For credit assignment, we propose Action Advantage Assignment ($\mathrm{A}^3$), a native agentic RL method that preserves the algorithmic complexity of standard agentic RL. $\mathrm{A}^3$ constructs turn-level advantages from episode-level relative feedback, abstract syntax tree (AST) based action sub-chain residuals, and tree-level trajectory margins. To further evaluate this problem setting, we construct ShellOps, a verifiable dataset suite covering CLI tasks in repository environments.

Adversarial training attains strong empirical robustness to specific adversarial attacks by training on concrete adversarial perturbations, but it produces neural networks that are not amenable to strong robustness certificates through neural network verification. On the other hand, earlier certified training schemes directly train on bounds from network relaxations to obtain models that are certifiably robust, but display sub-par standard performance. Recent work has shown that state-of-the-art trade-offs between certified robustness and standard performance can be obtained through a family of losses combining adversarial outputs and neural network bounds. Nevertheless, differently from empirical robustness, verifiability still comes at a significant cost in standard performance. In this work, we propose to leverage empirically-robust teachers to improve the performance of certifiably-robust models through knowledge distillation. Using versatile feature-space distillation objectives, we show that distillation from adversarially-trained teachers can significantly improve the performance of state-of-the-art certified training algorithms for ReLU networks on robust computer vision benchmarks.

The field of learning-augmented algorithms has demonstrated that machine-learned predictions can bypass worst-case lower bounds across a wide range of problems. So far, however, the focus has been almost exclusively on *polynomial-time* algorithms, where predictions improve competitive ratios, approximation guarantees, or running times. In this paper, we raise the question of whether predictions can push the frontier of *exact exponential-time* algorithms for NP-hard problems. We answer this question affirmatively by proposing a *general approach* that augments an entire family of state-of-the-art exact algorithms for a variety of subset selection problems. We show that a noisy predictor that is only marginally better than random guessing suffices to provably reduce the search space, and that the resulting runtime speedup scales smoothly with the prediction quality. Importantly, our algorithms require only *pairwise* independence of predictions or, alternatively, do not require the knowledge of the predictor's accuracy–both strictly weaker and more realistic settings than typically assumed.

Recent progress in integrating vision-language-action (VLA) models with world modeling has significantly advanced end-to-end autonomous driving by allowing systems to reason about imagined futures instead of merely reacting to current observations. However, most world VLA models generate future frames at the pixel level with plenty of dense visual tokens. Although such generated futures can be visually plausible, they preserve many driving-irrelevant appearance details, i.e., only a small portion of the tokens directly encode planning-relevant factors, such as agent geometry, motion dynamics, and interactions. This introduces a significant performance bottleneck. An important question thus arises: what world state should a world VLA model reason over to support planning beyond pixel-level prediction? We argue that planning-oriented world modeling should focus on an agentic latent state that captures the interactions between objects in the driving scene over time. As such, we introduce AgentWorld, an agentic world VLA model that uses discrete agent tokens jointly for reasoning and trajectory planning. Each token is dynamically grounded to a surrounding agent associated with its object's state, such as semantic identity, 3D geometry, motion, and interaction context. AgentWorld learns these tokens through three key processes: explicit geometric grounding, reasoning-oriented supervised fine-tuning, and agent-oriented reinforcement learning. Extensive open-loop and closed-loop experiments under diverse driving scenarios show that AgentWorld enhances planning capabilities, fully exploits visual evidence and agent dynamics, and yields interpretable agentic world states. The code will be made publicly available.

Animals integrate information across sensory modalities to guide exploration, suggesting that they maintain internal estimates of where actions are expected to reduce uncertainty. However, how such action-conditioned information maps are learned from multimodal sensory experience remains unclear, as previous studies have been largely confined to unimodal sensing frameworks. We introduce a multimodal predictive-coding framework for learning uncertainty-reduction maps from visual and mechanosensory observations in hawkmoth flower interaction tasks. A variational generative model trained on simulated environments recovers modality-specific information landscapes over the action space, capturing how visual patterns, surface geometry, and mechanosensory cues shape the value of exploratory actions. These learned maps account for several features of hawkmoth behavior, including angled offsets during flower tracking, probing along visual patterns, and geometry-dependent changes in exploration. Applying the model to behavioral data from flower tracking and nectary search, we find that natural trajectories tend to occupy regions of high uncertainty reduction in these learned maps. Building on these observations, we develop an uncertainty-gated lexicographic algorithm that switches between information gathering and reward exploitation based on perceptual uncertainty. Across downstream reward-learning tasks, this policy learns faster, is more sample-efficient, and generalizes better to unseen environmental conditions than exploitation-only policies, $\epsilon$-greedy exploration, and non-lexicographic baselines. Together, these results suggest that multimodal generative perception models can learn actionable information landscapes that explain biological sensing and support exploration in embodied decision-making.

Randomization is often used to compromise among fixed policies, classifiers, or interventions, but affected stakeholders may be unable or unwilling to report utilities over all alternatives. We study a weaker feedback model in which, for each proposed lottery, each stakeholder reports only whether it is acceptable. Unlike prior work focused on finding a unanimously acceptable lottery when one exists, we allow unanimity to be impossible and seek lotteries that minimize aggregate acceptability violations. We model each stakeholder's acceptable lotteries by an unknown linear threshold rule over the lottery simplex, and the learner may only ask accept/reject queries. Since binary labels do not reveal utility shortfalls, and such shortfalls are not comparable across stakeholders, we measure violation geometrically: the Euclidean distance, within the affine hull of the simplex, to the stakeholder's normalized acceptance hyperplane. These distances are aggregated using the power mean. Our results characterize exactly which boundary information can be learned from these queries. A deterministic algorithm uses $\mathcal{O}(nm\log(m/\varepsilon))$ queries to recover the normalized boundary whenever violation distances are identifiable from query answers. Otherwise, queries determine the acceptable face but not the rate at which violation grows away from it; this ambiguity is unavoidable. When no ambiguity arises, the aggregate violation objective can be optimized exactly. When it does, we optimize a convex worst-case upper bound objective based on distance to the learned acceptable set and prove an additive loss bound of $\sqrt{2}(|B|/n)^{1/p}$. We also prove structural properties of optimal lotteries, including a support-size bound of $n+1$, and give a limited-budget algorithm with additive-$\alpha$ guarantees. Synthetic experiments illustrate the resulting breadth-depth tradeoff and the effect of the power-mean parameter $p$ on violation distribution.

Softmax attention in Transformers suffers from quadratic complexity in sequence length, making it impractical for long-context applications. Linear attention alleviates this issue by replacing the exponential kernel with alternative functions that enable linear-time computation. Among existing linear attention approaches, recent studies have shown that polynomial kernels are particularly effective, as they exhibit sparse and spiky behavior similar to softmax attention, which emphasizes large dot products while suppressing irrelevant interactions. However, the exact computation of high-degree polynomial kernels is infeasible for high-dimensional representations. As a result, prior work relies on approximate polynomial kernels. This introduces a non-negligible approximation error. In this paper, we show that, from the perspective of polynomial kernel approximation, existing linear attention methods are still suboptimal. We propose Learnable Low-Rank Polynomial Sketch (LLoPS), a principled and flexible framework for approximating polynomial kernels with linear attention. Our method learns a low-rank polynomial sketch that provably achieves a strictly smaller approximation error than existing approaches. Experiment results show that LLoPS achieves the highest performance across extensive benchmarks, comparing with various linear attention baselines.

Generative models, from diffusion models to large language models, achieve remarkable performance but at a cost in training data orders of magnitude larger than what biological learners require. An alternative paradigm has emerged in which networks are trained to predict their \emph{own} latent representations of related views or masked regions, as in data2vec and JEPA -- an idea related to predictive-coding accounts of the cortex. Despite strong empirical results, the theoretical understanding of these methods remains limited. Central questions include: by how much does latent prediction actually improve data efficiency? Is there a benefit to stacking such methods into multi-scale hierarchies? We answer both using as data a tractable probabilistic context-free grammar that captures the compositional structure of natural language and images. We prove that latent prediction recovers the full latent tree of depth $L$ from a number of samples scaling as $m^3$, where $m$ is the number of production rules per symbol. This is much fewer than the $m^L$ samples required by supervised learning and the $m^{L+1}$ required by token-level SSL. We confirm this bound with (i) a hierarchical clustering algorithm, (ii) an end-to-end neural network whose predictor-clusterer modules predict their own latents at each level via gradient descent, and (iii) the first sample-complexity analysis of data2vec, which we show implicitly performs hierarchical latent prediction. This suggests that explicit stacking such as H-JEPA is largely redundant.

Masked diffusion models (MDMs) have emerged as a promising alternative to autoregressive models, enabling parallel token generation while achieving competitive performance. Despite these advantages, MDMs face a fundamental limitation: once tokens are unmasked, they remain fixed, leading to error accumulation and ultimately degrading sample quality. We address this by proposing a framework that trains a model to perform both unmasking and correction. By reusing outputs from the MDM denoising network as inputs for corrector training, we train a model to recover from potential mistakes. During generation we apply additional corrective refinement steps between unmasking ones in order to change decoded tokens and improve outputs. We name our training and sampling method **Pro**gressive **Se**lf-**Co**rrection (**ProSeCo**) for its unique ability to iteratively refine an entire sequence, including already generated tokens. We conduct extensive experimental validation across multiple conditional and unconditional tasks, demonstrating that \method~yields better quality-efficiency trade-offs (up to ~4x faster sampling) and enables inference-time compute scaling to further increase sample quality beyond standard MDMs (up to ~1.2x improvement on benchmarks).