NeurIPS 2025 论文列表

This work introduces Structured Linear Controlled Differential Equations (SLiCEs), a unifying framework for sequence models with structured, input-dependent state-transition matrices that retain the maximal expressivity of dense matrices whilst being cheaper to compute. The framework encompasses existing architectures, such as input-dependent block-diagonal linear recurrent neural networks and DeltaNet's diagonal-plus-low-rank structure, as well as two novel variants based on sparsity and the Walsh-Hadamard transform. We prove that, unlike the diagonal state-transition matrices of S4D and Mamba, SLiCEs employing block-diagonal, sparse, or Walsh-Hadamard matrices match the maximal expressivity of dense matrices. Empirically, SLiCEs solve the $A_5$ state-tracking benchmark with a single layer, achieve best-in-class length generalisation on regular language tasks among parallel-in-time models, and match the performance of log neural controlled differential equations on six multivariate time-series classification datasets while cutting the average time per training step by a factor of twenty.

Time series forecasting plays a pivotal role in various real-world applications and has attracted significant attention in recent decades. While recent methods have achieved remarkable accuracy by incorporating advanced inductive biases and training strategies, we observe that instance-level variations remain a significant challenge. These variations—stemming from distribution shifts, missing data, and long-tail patterns—often lead to suboptimal forecasts for specific instances, even when overall performance appears strong. To address this issue, we propose a model-agnostic framework, PIR, designed to enhance forecasting performance through Post-forecasting Identification and Revision. Specifically, PIR first identifies biased forecast instances by estimating their predictive accuracy. Based on this, the framework revises the forecasts using contextual information, including covariates and historical time series, from both local and global perspectives in a post-processing fashion. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets with mainstream forecasting models demonstrate that PIR effectively mitigates instance-level errors and significantly improves forecasting reliability.

Time series segmentation is a fundamental task in analyzing temporal data across various domains, from human activity recognition to energy monitoring. While numerous state-of-the-art methods have been developed to tackle this problem, the evaluation of their performance remains critically limited. Existing measures predominantly focus on change point accuracy or rely on point-based metrics such as Adjusted Rand Index (ARI), which fail to capture the quality of the detected segments, ignore the nature of errors, and offer limited interpretability. In this paper, we address these shortcomings by introducing two novel evaluation measures: WARI (Weighted Adjusted Rand Index), a temporal extension of ARI that accounts for the position of segmentation errors, and SMS (State Matching Score), a fine-grained metric that identifies and scores four distinct and fundamental types of segmentation errors while allowing error-specific weighting. We empirically validate WARI and SMS on synthetic and real-world benchmarks, showing that they not only provide a more accurate assessment of segmentation quality but also uncover insights, such as error provenance and type, that are inaccessible with traditional measures.

Long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) aims to predict future trends based on historical data. While longer lookback windows theoretically offer more comprehensive insights, Transformer-based models often struggle with them. On one hand, longer windows introduce more noise and redundancy, hindering the model's learning process. On the other hand, Transformers suffer from attention dispersion and are prone to overfitting to noise, especially when processing long sequences. In this paper, we introduce the Maximum Effective Window (MEW) metric to assess a model's ability to effectively utilize the lookback window. We also propose two model-agnostic modules to enhance MEW, enabling models to better leverage historical data for improved performance. Specifically, to reduce redundancy and noise, we introduce the Information Bottleneck Filter (IBF), which employs information bottleneck theory to extract the most essential subsequences from the input. Additionally, we propose the Hybrid-Transformer-Mamba (HTM), which incorporates the Mamba mechanism for selective forgetting of long sequences while harnessing the Transformer's strong modeling capabilities for shorter sequences. We integrate these two modules into various Transformer-based models, and experimental results show that they effectively enhance MEW, leading to improved overall performance. Our code is available at \url{https://github.com/forever-ly/PIH}.

Dark matter makes up approximately 85\% of total matter in our universe, yet it has never been directly observed in any laboratory on Earth. The origin of dark matter is one of the most important questions in contemporary physics, and a convincing detection of dark matter would be a Nobel-Prize-level breakthrough in fundamental science. The ABRACADABRA experiment was specifically designed to search for dark matter. Although it has not yet made a discovery, ABRACADABRA has produced several dark matter search results widely endorsed by the physics community. The experiment generates ultra-long time-series data at a rate of 10 million samples per second, where the dark matter signal would manifest itself as a sinusoidal oscillation mode within the ultra-long time series. In this paper, we present the TIDMAD --- a comprehensive data release from the ABRACADABRA experiment including three key components: an ultra-long time series dataset divided into training, validation, and science subsets; a carefully-designed denoising score for direct model benchmarking; and a complete analysis framework which produces a physics community-standard dark matter search result suitable for publication as a physics paper. This data release enables core AI algorithms to extract the dark matter signal and produce real physics results thereby advancing fundamental science.

In real-world environments, a well-designed model must be capable of handling dynamically evolving distributions, where both in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) samples appear unpredictably and individually, making real-time adaptation particularly challenging. While open-set test-time adaptation has demonstrated effectiveness in adjusting to distribution shifts, existing methods often rely on batch processing and struggle to manage single-sample data stream in open-set environments. To address this limitation, we propose Open-IRT, a novel open-set Intermediate-Representation-based Test-time adaptation framework tailored for single-image test-time adaptation with vision-language models. Open-IRT comprises two key modules designed for dynamic, single-sample adaptation in open-set scenarios. The first is Polarity-aware Prompt-based OOD Filter module, which fully constructs the ID-OOD distribution, considering both the absolute semantic alignment and relative semantic polarity. The second module, Intermediate Domain-based Test-time Adaptation module, constructs an intermediate domain and indirectly decomposes the ID-OOD distributional discrepancy to refine the separation boundary during the test-time. Extensive experiments on a range of domain adaptation benchmarks demonstrate the superiority of Open-IRT. Compared to previous state-of-the-art methods, it achieves significant improvements on representative benchmarks, such as CIFAR-100C and SVHN — with gains of +8.45\% in accuracy, -10.80\% in FPR95, and +11.04\% in AUROC.

We propose two simple, principled and practical algorithms that enjoy provable scaling laws for the test-time compute of large language models (LLMs). The first one is a two-stage knockout-style algorithm: given an input problem, it first generates multiple candidate solutions, and then aggregate them via a knockout tournament for the final output. Assuming that the LLM can generate a correct solution with non-zero probability and do better than a random guess in comparing a pair of correct and incorrect solutions, we prove theoretically that the failure probability of this algorithm decays to zero exponentially or by a power law (depending on the specific way of scaling) as its test-time compute grows. The second one is a two-stage league-style algorithm, where each candidate is evaluated by its average win rate against multiple opponents, rather than eliminated upon loss to a single opponent. Under analogous but more robust assumptions, we prove that its failure probability also decays to zero exponentially with more test-time compute. Both algorithms require a black-box LLM and nothing else (e.g., no verifier or reward model) for a minimalistic implementation, which makes them appealing for practical applications and easy to adapt for different tasks. Through extensive experiments with diverse models and datasets, we validate the proposed theories and demonstrate the outstanding scaling properties of both algorithms.

Although there is an extensive body of work characterizing the sample complexity of discounted-return offline RL with function approximations, prior work on the average-reward setting has received significantly less attention, and existing approaches rely on restrictive assumptions, such as ergodicity or linearity of the MDP. In this work, we establish the first sample complexity results for average-reward offline RL with function approximation for weakly communicating MDPs, a much milder assumption. To this end, we introduce Anchored Fitted Q-Iteration, which combines the standard Fitted Q-Iteration with an anchor mechanism. We show that the anchor, which can be interpreted as a form of weight decay, is crucial for enabling finite-time analysis in the average-reward setting. We also extend our finite-time analysis to the setup where the dataset is generated from a single-trajectory rather than IID transitions, again leveraging the anchor mechanism.

Initialization plays a critical role in Deep Neural Network training, directly influencing convergence, stability, and generalization. Common approaches such as Glorot and He initializations rely on randomness, which can produce uneven weight distributions across layer connections. In this paper, we introduce the Sinusoidal initialization, a novel deterministic method that employs sinusoidal functions to construct structured weight matrices expressly to improve the spread and balance of weights throughout the network while simultaneously fostering a more uniform, well‑conditioned distribution of neuron activation states from the very first forward pass. Because Sinusoidal initialization begins with weights and activations that are already evenly and efficiently utilized, it delivers consistently faster convergence, greater training stability, and higher final accuracy across a wide range of models, including convolutional neural networks, vision transformers, and large language models. On average, our experiments show an increase of 4.8 % in final validation accuracy and 20.9 % in convergence speed. By replacing randomness with structure, this initialization provides a stronger and more reliable foundation for Deep Learning systems.

Many \textit{Deep Reinforcement Learning} (DRL) algorithms are sensitive to time discretization, which reduces their performance in real-world scenarios. We propose Continuous Soft Actor-Critic, an off-policy actor-critic DRL algorithm in continuous time and space. It is robust to environment time discretization. We also extend the framework to multi-agent scenarios. This \textit{Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning} (MARL) algorithm is suitable for both competitive and cooperative settings. Policy evaluation employs stochastic control theory, with loss functions derived from martingale orthogonality conditions. We establish scaling principles for hyperparameters of the algorithm as the environment time discretization $\delta t$ changes ($\delta t \rightarrow 0$). We provide theoretical proofs for the relevant theorems. To validate the algorithm's effectiveness, we conduct comparative experiments between the proposed algorithm and other mainstream methods across multiple tasks in \textit{Virtual Multi-Agent System} (VMAS). Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm achieves robust performance across various environments with different time discretization parameter settings, outperforming other methods.

Graph anomaly detection (GAD) is widely prevalent in scenarios such as financial fraud detection, anti-money laundering, and social bot detection. However, structural distribution shifts are commonly observed in real-world GAD data due to selection bias, resulting in reduced homophily. Existing GAD methods tend to rely on homophilic shortcuts when trained on high-homophily structures, limiting their ability to generalize well to data with low homophily under structural distribution shifts. In this study, we propose to handle structural distribution shifts by generating novel environments characterized by diverse homophilic structures and utilizing invariant patterns, i.e., features and structures with the capability of stable prediction across structural distribution shifts, which face two challenges: (1) How to discover invariant patterns from entangled features and structures, as structures are sensitive to varying homophilic distributions. (2) How to systematically construct new environments with diverse homophilic structures. To address these challenges, we propose the Ego-Neighborhood Disentangled Encoder with Homophily-aware Environment Mixup (HEM), which effectively handles structural distribution shifts in GAD by discovering invariant patterns. Specifically, we first propose an ego-neighborhood disentangled encoder to decouple the learning of feature embeddings and structural embeddings, which facilitates subsequent improvements in the invariance of structural embeddings for prediction. Next, we introduce a homophily-aware environment mixup that dynamically adjusts edge weights through adversarial learning, effectively generating environments with diverse structural distributions. Finally, we iteratively train the classifier and environment mixup via adversarial training, simultaneously improving the diversity of constructed environments and discovering invariant patterns under structural distribution shifts. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that our method outperforms existing baselines and achieves state-of-the-art performance under structural distribution shift conditions.

Unsupervised anomaly detection of multivariate time series remains challenging in complex nonstationary dynamics, due to the high false-positive rates and limited interpretability. We propose PhysDiff, combining physics-guided decomposition with diffusion-based reconstruction, to address these issues. The physics-guided signal decomposition is introduced to disentangle overlapping dynamics by isolating high frequency oscillations and low frequency trends, which can reduce interference and provide meaningful physical priors. The reconstruction through conditional diffusion modeling captures deviations from learned normal behavior, making anomalies more distinguishable. Notably, PhysDiff introduces an amplitude-sensitive permutation entropy criterion to adaptively determine the optimal decomposition depth, and automatically extract adaptive frequency components used as explicit physics-based constraints for the diffusion process. Furthermore, the proposed conditional diffusion network employs a dual-path conditioning mechanism that integrates high-frequency and low-frequency physical priors, dynamically regulating the denoising process via a novel time frequency energy routing mechanism. By weighting reconstruction errors across frequency bands, our method improves anomaly localization and enhances interpretability. Extensive experiments on five benchmark datasets and two NeurIPS-TS scenarios demonstrate that PhysDiff outperforms 18 state-of-the-art baselines, with average F1-score improvements on both standard and challenging datasets. Experimental results validate the advantages of combining principled signal decomposition with diffusion-based reconstruction for robust, interpretable anomaly detection in complex dynamic systems.

The practical performance of generative diffusion models depends on the appropriate choice of the noise scheduling function, which can also be equivalently expressed as a time reparameterization. In this paper, we present a time scheduler that selects sampling points based on entropy rather than uniform time spacing, ensuring that each point contributes an equal amount of information to the final generation. We prove that this time reparameterization does not depend on the initial choice of time. Furthermore, we provide a tractable exact formula to estimate this \emph{entropic time} for a trained model using the training loss without substantial overhead. Alongside the entropic time, inspired by the optimality results, we introduce a rescaled entropic time. In our experiments with mixtures of Gaussian distributions and ImageNet, we show that using the (rescaled) entropic times greatly improves the inference performance of trained models. In particular, we found that the image quality in pretrained EDM2 models, as evaluated by FID and FD-DINO scores, can be substantially increased by the rescaled entropic time reparameterization without increasing the number of function evaluations, with greater improvements in the few NFEs regime. Code is available at \url{https://github.com/DejanStancevic/Entropic-Time-Schedulers-for-Generative-Diffusion-Models}.

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) is crucial for personalized decision-making. However, this task is challenging in survival analysis, which includes time-to-event data with censored outcomes (e.g., due to study dropout). In this paper, we propose a toolbox of orthogonal survival learners to estimate HTEs from time-to-event data under censoring. Our learners have three main advantages: (i) we show that learners from our toolbox are guaranteed to be orthogonal and thus robust with respect to nuisance estimation errors; (ii) our toolbox allows for incorporating a custom weighting function, which can lead to robustness against different types of low overlap, and (iii) our learners are \emph{model-agnostic} (i.e., they can be combined with arbitrary machine learning models). We instantiate the learners from our toolbox using several weighting functions and, as a result, propose various neural orthogonal survival learners. Some of these coincide with existing survival learners (including survival versions of the DR- and R-learner), while others are novel and further robust w.r.t. low overlap regimes specific to the survival setting (i.e., survival overlap and censoring overlap). We then empirically verify the effectiveness of our learners for HTE estimation in different low-overlap regimes through numerical experiments. In sum, we provide practitioners with a large toolbox of learners that can be used for randomized and observational studies with censored time-to-event data.

Estimating causal effects from spatiotemporal observational data is essential in public health, environmental science, and policy evaluation, where randomized experiments are often infeasible. Existing approaches, however, either rely on strong structural assumptions or fail to handle key challenges such as interference, spatial confounding, temporal carryover, and *time-varying confounding*—where covariates are influenced by past treatments and, in turn, affect future ones. We introduce the **GST-UNet** (**G**-computation **S**patio-**T**emporal **UNet**), a theoretically grounded neural framework that combines a U-Net-based spatiotemporal encoder with regression-based iterative G-computation to estimate location-specific potential outcomes under complex intervention sequences. GST-UNet explicitly adjusts for time-varying confounders and captures non-linear spatial and temporal dependencies, enabling valid causal inference from a *single* observed trajectory in data-scarce settings. We validate its effectiveness in synthetic experiments and in a real-world analysis of wildfire smoke exposure and respiratory hospitalizations during the 2018 California Camp Fire. Together, these results position GST-UNet as a **principled and ready-to-use framework** for spatiotemporal causal inference, advancing reliable estimation in policy-relevant and scientific domains.

As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in real-world applications, ensuring the safety of their outputs during decoding has become a critical challenge. However, existing decoding-time interventions, such as Contrastive Decoding, often force a severe trade-off between safety and response quality. In this work, we propose **CARE**, a novel framework for decoding-time safety alignment that integrates three key components: (1) a guard model for real-time safety monitoring, enabling detection of potentially unsafe content; (2) a rollback mechanism with a token buffer to correct unsafe outputs efficiently at an earlier stage without disrupting the user experience; and (3) a novel introspection-based intervention strategy, where the model generates self-reflective critiques of its previous outputs and incorporates these reflections into the context to guide subsequent decoding steps. The framework achieves a superior safety-quality trade-off by using its guard model for precise interventions, its rollback mechanism for timely corrections, and our novel introspection method for effective self-correction. Experimental results demonstrate that our framework achieves a superior balance of safety, quality, and efficiency, attaining a **low harmful response rate** and **minimal disruption to the user experience** while **maintaining high response quality**.

Explaining time series classification models is crucial, particularly in high-stakes applications such as healthcare and finance, where transparency and trust play a critical role. Although numerous time series classification methods have identified key subsequences, known as shapelets, as core features for achieving state-of-the-art performance and validating their pivotal role in classification outcomes, existing post-hoc time series explanation (PHTSE) methods primarily focus on timestep-level feature attribution. These explanation methods overlook the fundamental prior that classification outcomes are predominantly driven by key shapelets. To bridge this gap, we present ShapeX, an innovative framework that segments time series into meaningful shapelet-driven segments and employs Shapley values to assess their saliency. At the core of ShapeX lies the Shapelet Describe-and-Detect (SDD) framework, which effectively learns a diverse set of shapelets essential for classification. We further demonstrate that ShapeX produces explanations which reveal causal relationships instead of just correlations, owing to the atomicity properties of shapelets. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that ShapeX outperforms existing methods in identifying the most relevant subsequences, enhancing both the precision and causal fidelity of time series explanations.

Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs), as a biologically plausible alternative to Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), have demonstrated advantages in terms of energy efficiency, temporal processing, and biological plausibility. However, SNNs are highly sensitive to distribution shifts, which can significantly degrade their performance in real-world scenarios. Traditional test-time adaptation (TTA) methods designed for ANNs often fail to address the unique computational dynamics of SNNs, such as sparsity and temporal spiking behavior. To address these challenges, we propose SPike-Aware Consistency Enhancement (SPACE), the first source-free and single-instance TTA method specifically designed for SNNs. SPACE leverages the inherent spike dynamics of SNNs to maximize the consistency of spike-behavior-based local feature maps across augmented versions of a single test sample, enabling robust adaptation without requiring source data. We evaluate SPACE on multiple datasets. Furthermore, SPACE exhibits robust generalization across diverse network architectures, consistently enhancing the performance of SNNs on CNNs, Transformer, and ConvLSTM architectures. Experimental results show that SPACE outperforms state-of-the-art ANN methods while maintaining lower computational cost, highlighting its effectiveness and robustness for SNNs in real-world settings. The code will be available at https://github.com/ethanxyluo/SPACE.

Algorithm unrolling methods have proven powerful for solving the regularized least squares problem in computational magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). These approaches unfold an iterative algorithm with a fixed number of iterations, typically alternating between a neural network-based proximal operator for regularization, a data fidelity operation and auxiliary updates with learnable parameters. While the connection to optimization methods dictate that the proximal operator network should be shared across unrolls, this can introduce artifacts or blurring. Heuristically, practitioners have shown that using distinct networks may be beneficial, but this significantly increases the number of learnable parameters, making it challenging to prevent overfitting. To address these shortcomings, by taking inspirations from proximal operators with varying thresholds in approximate message passing (AMP) and the success of time-embedding in diffusion models, we propose a time-embedded algorithm unrolling scheme for inverse problems. Specifically, we introduce a novel perspective on the iteration-dependent proximal operation in vector AMP (VAMP) and the subsequent Onsager correction in the context of algorithm unrolling, framing them as a time-embedded neural network. Similarly, the scalar weights in the data fidelity operation and its associated Onsager correction are cast as time-dependent learnable parameters. Our extensive experiments on the fastMRI dataset, spanning various acceleration rates and datasets, demonstrate that our method effectively reduces aliasing artifacts and mitigates noise amplification, achieving state-of-the-art performance. Furthermore, we show that our time-embedding strategy extends to existing algorithm unrolling approaches, enhancing reconstruction quality without increasing the computational complexity significantly. Code available at https://github.com/JN-Yun/TE-Unrolling-MRI.