NeurIPS 2025 论文列表

Time Series Forecasting (TSF) is a crucial task in various domains, yet existing TSF models rely heavily on high-quality data and insufficiently exploit all available data. This paper explores a novel self-supervised approach to re-label time series datasets by inherently constructing candidate datasets. During the optimization of a simple reconstruction network, intermediates are used as pseudo labels in a self-supervised paradigm, improving generalization for any predictor. We introduce the Self-Correction with Adaptive Mask (SCAM), which discards overfitted components and selectively replaces them with pseudo labels generated from reconstructions. Additionally, we incorporate Spectral Norm Regularization (SNR) to further suppress overfitting from a loss landscape perspective. Our experiments on eleven real-world datasets demonstrate that SCAM consistently improves the performance of various backbone models. This work offers a new perspective on constructing datasets and enhancing the generalization of TSF models through self-supervised learning. The code is available at https://github.com/SuDIS-ZJU/SCAM.

The powerful reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) in mathematics and coding, combined with their ability to automate complex tasks through agentic frameworks, present unprecedented opportunities for accelerating scientific innovation. In this paper, we introduce AI-Researcher, a fully autonomous research system that transforms how AI-driven scientific discovery is conducted and evaluated. Our framework seamlessly orchestrates the complete research pipeline--from literature review and hypothesis generation to algorithm implementation and publication-ready manuscript preparation--with minimal human intervention. To rigorously assess autonomous research capabilities, we develop Scientist-Bench, a comprehensive benchmark comprising state-of-the-art papers across diverse AI research domains, featuring both guided innovation and open-ended exploration tasks. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that AI-Researcher achieves remarkable implementation success rates and produces research papers that approach human-level quality. This work establishes new foundations for autonomous scientific innovation that can complement human researchers by systematically exploring solution spaces beyond cognitive limitations.

With the exponential growth of video content, aiming at localizing relevant video moments based on natural language queries, video moment retrieval (VMR) has gained significant attention. Existing weakly supervised VMR methods focus on designing various feature modeling and modal interaction modules to alleviate the reliance on precise temporal annotations. However, these methods have poor generalization capabilities on compositional queries with novel syntactic structures or vocabulary in real-world scenarios. To this end, we propose a new task: weakly supervised compositional moment retrieval (WSCMR). This task trains models using only video-query pairs without precise temporal annotations, while enabling generalization to complex compositional queries. Furthermore, a proposal-centric network (PC-Net) is proposed to tackle this challenging task. First, video and query features are extracted through frozen feature extractors, followed by modality interaction to obtain multimodal features. Second, to handle compositional queries with explicit temporal associations, a dual-granularity proposal generator decodes multimodal global and frame-level features to obtain query-relevant proposal boundaries with fine-grained temporal perception. Third, to improve the discrimination of proposal features, a proposal feature aggregator is constructed to conduct semantic alignment of frames and queries, and employ a learnable peak-aware Gaussian distributor to fit the frame weights within the proposals to derive proposal features from the video frame features. Finally, the proposal quality is assessed based on the results of reconstructing the masked query using the obtained proposal features. To further enhance the model's ability to capture semantic associations between proposals and queries, a quality margin regularizer is constructed to dynamically stratify proposals into high and low query-relevance subsets and enhance the association between queries and common elements within proposals, and suppress spurious correlations via inter-subset contrastive learning. Notably, PC-Net achieves superior performance with 54\% fewer parameters than prior works by parameter-efficient design. Experiments on Charades-CG and ActivityNet-CG demonstrate PC-Net’s ability to generalize across diverse compositional queries. Code is available at https://github.com/mingyao1120/PC-Net.

We study the _multinomial logit_ (MNL) contextual bandit problem for sequential assortment selection. Although most existing research assumes utility functions to be linear in item features, this linearity assumption restricts the modeling of intricate interactions between items and user preferences. A recent work (Zhang & Luo, 2024) has investigated general utility function classes, yet its method faces fundamental trade-offs between computational tractability and statistical efficiency. To address this limitation, we propose a computationally efficient algorithm for MNL contextual bandits leveraging the upper confidence bound principle, specifically designed for non-linear parametric utility functions, including those modeled by neural networks. Under a realizability assumption and a mild geometric condition on the utility function class, our algorithm achieves a regret bound of $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{T})$, where $T$ denotes the total number of rounds. Our result establishes that sharp $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{T})$-regret is attainable even with neural network-based utilities, without relying on strong assumptions such as neural tangent kernel approximations. To the best of our knowledge, our proposed method is the first computationally tractable algorithm for MNL contextual bandits with non-linear utilities that provably attains $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{T})$ regret. Comprehensive numerical experiments validate the effectiveness of our approach, showing robust performance not only in realizable settings but also in scenarios with model misspecification.

From media platforms to chatbots, algorithms shape how people interact, learn, and discover information. Such interactions between users and an algorithm often unfold over multiple steps, during which strategic users can guide the algorithm to better align with their true interests by selectively engaging with content. However, users frequently exhibit inconsistent preferences: they may spend considerable time on content that offers little long-term value, inadvertently signaling that such content is desirable. Focusing on the user side, this raises a key question: what does it take for such users to align the algorithm with their true interests? To investigate these dynamics, we model the user’s decision process as split between a rational "system 2" that decides whether to engage and an impulsive "system 1" that determines how long engagement lasts. We then study a multi-leader, single-follower extensive Stackelberg game, where users, specifically system 2, lead by committing to engagement strategies and the algorithm best-responds based on observed interactions. We define the burden of alignment as the minimum horizon over which users must optimize to effectively steer the algorithm. We show that a critical horizon exists: users who are sufficiently foresighted can achieve alignment, while those who are not are instead aligned to the algorithm’s objective. This critical horizon can be long, imposing a substantial burden. However, even a small, costly signal (e.g., an extra click) can significantly reduce it. Overall, our framework explains how users with inconsistent preferences can align an engagement-driven algorithm with their interests in a Stackelberg equilibrium, highlighting both the challenges and potential remedies for achieving alignment.

Geometric graph neural networks (GNNs) that respect E(3) symmetries have achieved strong performance on small molecule modeling, but they face scalability and expressiveness challenges when applied to large biomolecules such as RNA and proteins. These systems require models that can simultaneously capture fine-grained atomic interactions, long-range dependencies across spatially distant components, and biologically relevant hierarchical structure—such as atoms forming residues, which in turn form higher-order domains. Existing geometric GNNs, which typically operate exclusively in either Euclidean or Spherical Harmonics space, are limited in their ability to capture both the fine-scale atomic details and the long-range, symmetry-aware dependencies required for modeling the multi-scale structure of large biomolecules. We introduce DualEquiNet, a Dual-Space Hierarchical Equivariant Network that constructs complementary representations in both Euclidean and Spherical Harmonics spaces to capture local geometry and global symmetry-aware features. DualEquiNet employs bidirectional cross-space message passing and a novel Cross-Space Interaction Pooling mechanism to hierarchically aggregate atomic features into biologically meaningful units, such as residues, enabling efficient and expressive multi-scale modeling for large biomolecular systems. DualEquiNet achieves state-of-the-art performance on multiple existing benchmarks for RNA property prediction and protein modeling, and outperforms prior methods on two newly introduced 3D structural benchmarks demonstrating its broad effectiveness across a range of large biomolecule modeling tasks.

Simulation-based inference (SBI) offers a flexible and general approach to performing Bayesian inference: In SBI, a neural network is trained on synthetic data simulated from a model and used to rapidly infer posterior distributions for observed data. A key goal for SBI is to achieve accurate inference with as few simulations as possible, especially for expensive simulators. In this work, we address this challenge by repurposing recent probabilistic foundation models for tabular data: We show how tabular foundation models---specifically TabPFN---can be used as pre-trained autoregressive conditional density estimators for SBI. We propose Neural Posterior Estimation with Prior-data Fitted Networks (NPE-PFN) and show that it is competitive with current SBI approaches in terms of accuracy for both benchmark tasks and two complex scientific inverse problems. Crucially, it often substantially outperforms them in terms of simulation efficiency, sometimes requiring orders of magnitude fewer simulations. NPE-PFN eliminates the need for selecting and training an inference network and tuning its hyperparameters. We also show that it exhibits superior robustness to model misspecification and can be scaled to simulation budgets that exceed the context size limit of TabPFN. NPE-PFN provides a new direction for SBI, where training-free, general-purpose inference models offer efficient, easy-to-use, and flexible solutions for a wide range of stochastic inverse problems.

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models for autonomous driving show promise but falter in unstructured corner case scenarios, largely due to a scarcity of targeted benchmarks. To address this, we introduce Impromptu VLA. Our core contribution is the Impromptu VLA Dataset: over 80,000 meticulously curated video clips, distilled from over 2M source clips sourced from 8 open-source large-scale datasets. This dataset is built upon our novel taxonomy of four challenging unstructured categories and features rich, planning-oriented question-answering annotations and action trajectories. Crucially, experiments demonstrate that VLAs trained with our dataset achieve substantial performance gains on established benchmarks—improving closed-loop NeuroNCAP scores and collision rates, and reaching near state-of-the-art L2 accuracy in open-loop nuScenes trajectory prediction. Furthermore, our Q&A suite serves as an effective diagnostic, revealing clear VLM improvements in perception, prediction, and planning. Our code, data and models are available at https://github.com/ahydchh/Impromptu-VLA

In this work, we aim to incentivize the reasoning ability of Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) via reinforcement learning (RL) and develop an effective approach that mitigates the sparse reward and advantage vanishing issues during RL. To this end, we propose Share-GRPO, a novel RL approach that tackle these issues by exploring and sharing diverse reasoning trajectories over expanded question space. Specifically, Share-GRPO first expands the question space for a given question via data transformation techniques, and then encourages MLLM to effectively explore diverse reasoning trajectories over the expanded question space and shares the discovered reasoning trajectories across the expanded questions during RL. In addition, Share-GRPO also shares reward information during advantage computation, which estimates solution advantages hierarchically across and within question variants, allowing more accurate estimation of relative advantages and improving the stability of policy training. Extensive evaluations over 6 widely-used reasoning benchmarks showcase the superior performance of our method. Code is available at https://github.com/HJYao00/R1-ShareVL.

The recent success of generative AI highlights the crucial role of high-quality human feedback in building trustworthy AI systems. However, the increasing use of large language models (LLMs) by crowdsourcing workers poses a significant challenge: datasets intended to reflect human input may be compromised by LLM-generated responses. Existing LLM detection approaches often rely on high-dimensional training data such as text, making them unsuitable for structured annotation tasks like multiple-choice labeling. In this work, we investigate the potential of peer prediction --- a mechanism that evaluates the information within workers' responses --- to mitigate LLM-assisted cheating in crowdsourcing with a focus on annotation tasks. Our method quantifies the correlations between worker answers while conditioning on (a subset of) LLM-generated labels available to the requester. Building on prior research, we propose a training-free scoring mechanism with theoretical guarantees under a novel model that accounts for LLM collusion. We establish conditions under which our method is effective and empirically demonstrate its robustness in detecting low-effort cheating on real-world crowdsourcing datasets.

Masked generative models (MGMs) have emerged as a powerful framework for image synthesis, combining parallel decoding with strong bidirectional context modeling. However, generating high-quality samples typically requires many iterative decoding steps, resulting in high inference costs. A straightforward way to speed up generation is by decoding more tokens in each step, thereby reducing the total number of steps. However, when many tokens are decoded simultaneously, the model can only estimate the univariate marginal distributions independently, failing to capture the dependency among them. As a result, reducing the number of steps significantly compromises generation fidelity. In this work, we introduce ReCAP (Reused Context-Aware Prediction), a plug-and-play module that accelerates inference in MGMs by constructing low-cost steps via reusing feature embeddings from previously decoded context tokens. ReCAP interleaves standard full evaluations with lightweight steps that cache and reuse context features, substantially reducing computation while preserving the benefits of fine-grained, iterative generation. We demonstrate its effectiveness on top of three representative MGMs (MaskGIT, MAGE, and MAR), including both discrete and continuous token spaces and covering diverse architectural designs. In particular, on ImageNet256 class-conditional generation, ReCAP achieves up to 2.4$\times$ faster inference than the base model with minimal performance drop, and consistently delivers better efficiency–fidelity trade-offs under various generation settings.

The VC-dimension is a well-studied and fundamental complexity measure of a set system (or hypergraph) that is central to many areas of machine learning. We establish several new results on the complexity of computing the VC-dimension. In particular, given a hypergraph $\mathcal{H}=(\mathcal{V},\mathcal{E})$, we prove that the naive $2^{\mathcal{O}(|\mathcal{V}|)}$-time algorithm is asymptotically tight under the Exponential Time Hypothesis (ETH). We then prove that the problem admits a $1$-additive fixed-parameter approximation algorithm when parameterized by the maximum degree of $\mathcal{H}$ and a fixed-parameter algorithm when parameterized by its dimension, and that these are essentially the only such exploitable structural parameters. Lastly, we consider a generalization of the problem, formulated using graphs, which captures the VC-dimension of both set systems and graphs. We design a $2^{\mathcal{O}(\texttt{tw}\cdot \log \texttt{tw})}\cdot |V|$-time algorithm for any graph $G=(V,E)$ of treewidth $\texttt{tw}$ (which, for a set system, applies to the treewidth of its incidence graph). This is in contrast with closely related problems that require a double-exponential dependency on the treewidth (assuming the ETH).

The Koopman operator provides a principled framework for analyzing nonlinear dynamical systems through linear operator theory. Recent advances in dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) have shown that trajectory data can be used to identify dominant modes of a system in a data-driven manner. Building on this idea, deep learning methods such as VAMPnet and DPNet have been proposed to learn the leading singular subspaces of the Koopman operator. However, these methods require backpropagation through potentially numerically unstable operations on empirical second moment matrices, such as singular value decomposition and matrix inversion, during objective computation, which can introduce biased gradient estimates and hinder scalability to large systems. In this work, we propose a scalable and conceptually simple method for learning the top-$k$ singular functions of the Koopman operator for stochastic dynamical systems based on the idea of low-rank approximation. Our approach eliminates the need for unstable linear-algebraic operations and integrates easily into modern deep learning pipelines. Empirical results demonstrate that the learned singular subspaces are both reliable and effective for downstream tasks such as eigen-analysis and multi-step prediction.

Machine learning models are often brittle under distribution shift, i.e., when data distributions at test time differ from those during training. Understanding this failure mode is central to identifying and mitigating safety risks of mass adoption of machine learning. Here we analyze ridge regression under concept shift—a form of distribution shift in which the input-label relationship changes at test time. We derive an exact expression for prediction risk in the thermodynamic limit. Our results reveal nontrivial effects of concept shift on generalization performance, including a phase transition between weak and strong concept shift regimes and nonmonotonic data dependence of test performance even when double descent is absent. Our theoretical results are in good agreement with experiments based on transformers pretrained to solve linear regression; under concept shift, too long context length can be detrimental to generalization performance of next token prediction. Finally, experiments on MNIST and FashionMNIST further validate our theoretical predictions, suggesting these phenomena represent a fundamental aspect of learning under distribution shift.

Transformers are increasingly prevalent for multiview computer vision tasks, where geometric relationships between viewpoints are critical for 3D perception. To leverage these relationships, multiview transformers must use camera geometry to ground visual tokens in 3D space. In this work, we compare techniques for conditioning transformers on cameras: token-level raymap encodings, attention-level relative pose encodings, and a new relative encoding we propose—Projective Positional Encoding (PRoPE)—that captures complete camera frustums, both intrinsics and extrinsics, as a relative positional encoding. Our experiments begin by showing how relative conditioning methods improve performance in feedforward novel view synthesis, with further gains from PRoPE. This holds across settings: scenes with both shared and varying intrinsics, when combining token- and attention-level conditioning, and for generalization to inputs with out-of-distribution sequence lengths and camera intrinsics. We then verify that these benefits persist for different tasks, stereo depth estimation and discriminative spatial cognition, as well as larger model sizes.

The promise of autonomous scientific discovery (ASD) hinges not only on answering questions, but also on knowing which questions to ask. Most recent works in ASD explore the use of large language models (LLMs) in goal-driven settings, relying on human-specified research questions to guide hypothesis generation. However, scientific discovery may be accelerated further by allowing the AI system to drive exploration by its own criteria. The few existing approaches in open-ended ASD select hypotheses based on diversity heuristics or subjective proxies for human interestingness, but the former struggles to meaningfully navigate the typically vast hypothesis space, and the latter suffers from imprecise definitions. This paper presents AutoDiscovery—a method for open-ended ASD that instead drives scientific exploration using Bayesian surprise. Here, we quantify the epistemic shift from the LLM’s prior beliefs about a hypothesis to its posterior beliefs after gathering experimental results. To efficiently explore the space of nested hypotheses, our method employs a Monte Carlo tree search (MCTS) strategy with progressive widening using surprisal as the reward function. We evaluate AutoDiscovery in the setting of data-driven discovery across 21 real-world datasets spanning domains such as biology, economics, finance, and behavioral science. Our results demonstrate that under a fixed budget, AutoDiscovery substantially outperforms competitors by producing 5-29% more discoveries deemed surprising by the LLM. Our human evaluation further reveals that two-thirds of discoveries made by our system are surprising to domain experts as well, suggesting this is an important step towards building open-ended ASD systems.

Recently, semantically constrained adversarial examples (SemanticAE), which are directly generated from natural language instructions, have become a promising avenue for future research due to their flexible attacking forms, but have not been thoroughly explored yet. To generate SemanticAEs, current methods fall short of satisfactory attacking ability as the key underlying factors of semantic uncertainty in human instructions, such as $\textit{referring diversity}$, $\textit{descriptive incompleteness}$, and $\textit{boundary ambiguity}$, have not been fully investigated. To tackle the issues, this paper develops a multi-dimensional $\textbf{ins}$truction $\textbf{u}$ncertainty $\textbf{r}$eduction ($\textbf{InSUR}$) framework to generate more satisfactory SemanticAE, $\textit{i.e.}$, transferable, adaptive, and effective. Specifically, in the dimension of the sampling method, we propose the residual-driven attacking direction stabilization to alleviate the unstable adversarial optimization caused by the diversity of language references. By coarsely predicting the language-guided sampling process, the optimization process will be stabilized by the designed ResAdv-DDIM sampler‌, therefore releasing the transferable and robust adversarial capability of multi-step diffusion models. In task modeling, we propose the context-encoded attacking scenario constraint to supplement the missing knowledge from incomplete human instructions. Guidance masking and renderer integration are proposed to regulate the constraints of 2D/3D SemanticAE, activating stronger scenario-adapted attacks. Moreover, in the dimension of generator evaluation, we propose the semantic-abstracted attacking evaluation enhancement by clarifying the evaluation boundary based on the label taxonomy, facilitating the development of more effective SemanticAE generators. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of the transfer attack performance of InSUR. Besides, it is worth highlighting that we realize the reference-free generation of semantically constrained 3D adversarial examples by utilizing language-guided 3D generation models for the first time.

In this paper, we examine the robustness of Nash equilibria in continuous games, under both strategic and dynamic uncertainty. Starting with the former, we introduce the notion of a robust equilibrium as those equilibria that remain invariant to small—but otherwise arbitrary—perturbations to the game’s payoff structure, and we provide a crisp geometric characterization thereof. Subsequently, we turn to the question of dynamic robustness, and we examine which equilibria may arise as stable limit points of the dynamics of “follow the regularized leader” (FTRL) in the presence of randomness and uncertainty. Despite their very distinct origins, we establish a structural correspondence between these two notions of robustness: strategic robustness implies dynamic robustness, and, conversely, the requirement of strategic robustness cannot be relaxed if dynamic robustness is to be maintained. Finally, we examine the rate of convergence to robust equilibria as a function of the underlying regularizer, and we show that entropically regularized learning converges at a geometric rate in games with affinely constrained action spaces.

Future link prediction on temporal graphs is a fundamental task with wide applicability in real-world dynamic systems. These scenarios often involve both recurring (seen) and novel (unseen) interactions, requiring models to generalize effectively across both types of edges. However, existing methods typically rely on complex memory and aggregation modules, yet struggle to handle unseen edges. In this paper, we revisit the architecture of existing temporal graph models and identify two essential but overlooked modeling requirements for future link prediction: representing nodes with unique identifiers and performing target-aware matching between source and destination nodes. To this end, we propose Cross-Attention based Future Link Predictor on Temporal Graphs (CRAFT), a simple yet effective architecture that discards memory and aggregation modules and instead builds on two components: learnable node embeddings and cross-attention between the destination and the source's recent interactions. This design provides strong expressive power and enables target-aware modeling of the compatibility between candidate destinations and the source's interaction patterns. Extensive experiments on diverse datasets demonstrate that CRAFT consistently achieves superior performance with high efficiency, making it well-suited for large-scale real-world applications.