NeurIPS 2025 论文列表

Generative models such as Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs), Variational Autoencoders (VAEs), and diffusion models often suffer from mode collapse, failing to reproduce the full diversity of their training data. While this problem has been extensively studied in image generation, it remains largely unaddressed for time series. We introduce a formal definition of mode collapse for time series and propose DMD-GEN, a geometry-aware metric that quantifies its severity. DMD-GEN leverages Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) to extract coherent temporal structures and uses Optimal Transport between DMD eigenvectors to measure discrepancies in underlying dynamics. By representing the subspaces spanned by the DMD eigenvectors as point structures on a Grassmann manifold, and comparing them via Wasserstein distances computed from principal angles, DMD-GEN enables a principled geometric comparison between real and generated sequences. The metric is efficient, requiring no additional training, supports mini-batch evaluation, and is easily parallelizable. Beyond quantification, DMD-GEN offers interpretability by revealing which dynamical modes are distorted or missing in the generated data. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets using TimeGAN, TimeVAE, and DiffusionTS show that DMD-GEN aligns with existing metrics while providing the first principled framework for detecting and interpreting mode collapse in time series.

Predicting future neural activity is a core challenge in modeling brain dynamics, with applications ranging from scientific investigation to closed-loop neurotechnology. While recent models of population activity emphasize interpretability and behavioral decoding, neural forecasting—particularly across multi-session, spontaneous recordings—remains underexplored. We introduce POCO, a unified forecasting model that combines a lightweight univariate forecaster with a population-level encoder to capture both neuron-specific and brain-wide dynamics. Trained across five calcium imaging datasets spanning zebrafish, mice, and *C. elegans*, POCO achieves state-of-the-art accuracy at cellular resolution in spontaneous behaviors. After pre-training, POCO rapidly adapts to new recordings with minimal fine-tuning. Notably, POCO's learned unit embeddings recover biologically meaningful structure—such as brain region clustering—without any anatomical labels. Our comprehensive analysis reveals several key factors influencing performance, including context length, session diversity, and preprocessing. Together, these results position POCO as a scalable and adaptable approach for cross-session neural forecasting and offer actionable insights for future model design. By enabling accurate, generalizable forecasting models of neural dynamics across individuals and species, POCO lays the groundwork for adaptive neurotechnologies and large-scale efforts for neural foundation models. Code is available at [https://github.com/yuvenduan/POCO](https://github.com/yuvenduan/POCO).

Dynamic GNNs, which integrate temporal and spatial features in Electroencephalography (EEG) data, have shown great potential in automating seizure detection. However, fully capturing the underlying dynamics necessary to represent brain states, such as seizure and non-seizure, remains a non-trivial task and presents two fundamental challenges. First, most existing dynamic GNN methods are built on temporally fixed static graphs, which fail to reflect the evolving nature of brain connectivity during seizure progression. Second, current efforts to jointly model temporal signals and graph structures and, more importantly, their interactions remain nascent, often resulting in inconsistent performance. To address these challenges, we present the first theoretical analysis of these two problems, demonstrating the effectiveness and necessity of explicit dynamic modeling and time-then-graph dynamic GNN method. Building on these insights, we propose EvoBrain, a novel seizure detection model that integrates a two-stream Mamba architecture with a GCN enhanced by Laplacian Positional Encoding, following neurological insights. Moreover, EvoBrain incorporates explicitly dynamic graph structures, allowing both nodes and edges to evolve over time. Our contributions include (a) a theoretical analysis proving the expressivity advantage of explicit dynamic modeling and time-then-graph over other approaches, (b) a novel and efficient model that significantly improves AUROC by 23\% and F1 score by 30\%, compared with the dynamic GNN baseline, and (c) broad evaluation of our method on the challenging early seizure prediction task.

While deep learning methods have achieved strong performance in time series prediction, their black-box nature and inability to explicitly model underlying stochastic processes often limit their robustness handling non-stationary data, especially in the presence of abrupt changes. In this work, we introduce Neural MJD, a neural network based non-stationary Merton jump diffusion (MJD) model. Our model explicitly formulates forecasting as a stochastic differential equation (SDE) simulation problem, combining a time-inhomogeneous Itô diffusion to capture non-stationary stochastic dynamics with a time-inhomogeneous compound Poisson process to model abrupt jumps. To enable tractable learning, we introduce a likelihood truncation mechanism that caps the number of jumps within small time intervals and provide a theoretical error bound for this approximation. Additionally, we propose an Euler-Maruyama with restart solver, which achieves a provably lower error bound in estimating expected states and reduced variance compared to the standard solver. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that Neural MJD consistently outperforms state-of-the-art deep learning and statistical learning methods. Our code is available at https://github.com/DSL-Lab/neural-MJD.

Deploying large, complex policies in the real world requires the ability to steer them to fit the needs of a situation. Most common steering approaches, like goal-conditioning, require training the robot policy with a distribution of test-time objectives in mind. To overcome this limitation, we present DynaGuide, a steering method for diffusion policies using guidance from an external dynamics model during the diffusion denoising process. DynaGuide separates the dynamics model from the base policy, which gives it multiple advantages, including the ability to steer towards multiple objectives, enhance underrepresented base policy behaviors, and maintain robustness on low-quality objectives. The separate guidance signal also allows DynaGuide to work with off-the-shelf pretrained diffusion policies. We demonstrate the performance and features of DynaGuide against other steering approaches in a series of simulated and real experiments, showing an average steering success of 70% on a set of articulated CALVIN tasks and outperforming goal-conditioning by 5.4x when steered with low-quality objectives. We also successfully steer an off-the-shelf real robot policy to express preference for particular objects and even create novel behavior.

Deep learning models for time series classification (TSC) have achieved impressive performance, but explaining their decisions remains a significant challenge. Existing post-hoc explanation methods typically operate solely in the time domain and from a single-view perspective, limiting both faithfulness and robustness. In this work, we propose MIX (Multi-view Time-Frequency Interactive EXplanation Framework), a novel framework that helps to explain deep learning models in a multi-view setting by leveraging multi-resolution, time-frequency views constructed using the Haar Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT). MIX introduces an interactive cross-view refinement scheme, where explanation's information from one view is propagated across views to enhance overall interpretability. To align with user-preferred perspectives, we propose a greedy selection strategy that traverses the multi-view space to identify the most informative features. Additionally, we present OSIGV, a user-aligned segment-level attribution mechanism based on overlapping windows for each view, and introduce keystone-first IG, a method that refines explanations in each view using additional information from another view. Extensive experiments across multiple TSC benchmarks and model architectures demonstrate that MIX significantly outperforms state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods in terms of explanation faithfulness and robustness.

We introduce the Deformable Gaussian Splats Large Reconstruction Model (DGS-LRM), the first feed-forward method predicting deformable 3D Gaussian splats from a monocular posed video of any dynamic scene. Feed-forward scene reconstruction has gained significant attention for its ability to rapidly create digital replicas of real-world environments. However, most existing models are limited to static scenes and fail to reconstruct the motion of moving objects. Developing a feed-forward model for dynamic scene reconstruction poses significant challenges, including the scarcity of training data and the need for appropriate 3D representations and training paradigms. To address these challenges, we introduce several key technical contributions: an enhanced large-scale synthetic dataset with ground-truth multi-view videos and dense 3D scene flow supervision; a per-pixel deformable 3D Gaussian representation that is easy to learn, supports high-quality dynamic view synthesis, and enables long-range 3D tracking; and a large transformer network that achieves real-time, generalizable dynamic scene reconstruction. Extensive qualitative and quantitative experiments demonstrate that DGS-LRM achieves dynamic scene reconstruction quality comparable to optimization-based methods, while significantly outperforming the state-of-the-art predictive dynamic reconstruction method on real-world examples. Its predicted physically grounded 3D deformation is accurate and can be readily adapted for long-range 3D tracking tasks, achieving performance on par with state-of-the-art monocular video 3D tracking methods.

Time series analysis provides essential insights for real-world system dynamics and informs downstream decision-making, yet most existing methods often overlook the rich contextual signals present in auxiliary modalities. To bridge this gap, we introduce TimeXL, a multi-modal prediction framework that integrates a prototype-based time series encoder with three collaborating Large Language Models (LLMs) to deliver more accurate predictions and interpretable explanations. First, a multi-modal prototype-based encoder processes both time series and textual inputs to generate preliminary forecasts alongside case-based rationales. These outputs then feed into a prediction LLM, which refines the forecasts by reasoning over the encoder's predictions and explanations. Next, a reflection LLM compares the predicted values against the ground truth, identifying textual inconsistencies or noise. Guided by this feedback, a refinement LLM iteratively enhances text quality and triggers encoder retraining. This closed-loop workflow---prediction, critique (reflect), and refinement---continuously boosts the framework's performance and interpretability. Empirical evaluations on four real-world datasets demonstrate that TimeXL achieves up to 8.9\% improvement in AUC and produces human-centric, multi-modal explanations, highlighting the power of LLM-driven reasoning for time series prediction.

This paper investigates Reinforcement Learning (RL) on data without explicit labels for reasoning tasks in Large Language Models (LLMs). The core challenge of the problem is reward estimation during inference while not having access to ground-truth information. While this setting appears elusive, we find that common practices in Test-Time Scaling (TTS), such as majority voting, yield surprisingly effective rewards suitable for driving RL training. In this work, we introduce Test-Time Reinforcement Learning (TTRL), a novel method for training LLMs using RL on unlabeled data. TTRL enables self-evolution of LLMs by utilizing the priors in the pre-trained models. Our experiments demonstrate that TTRL consistently improves performance across a variety of tasks and models. Notably, TTRL boosts the pass@1 performance of Qwen-2.5-Math-7B by approximately 211% on the AIME 2024 with only unlabeled test data. Furthermore, although TTRL is only supervised by the Maj@N metric, TTRL has demonstrated performance to consistently surpass the upper limit of the initial model, and approach the performance of models trained directly on test data with ground-truth labels. Our experimental findings validate the general effectiveness of TTRL across various tasks and highlight TTRL's potential for broader tasks and domains.

State Space Models (SSMs) have emerged as efficient alternatives to Vision Transformers (ViTs), with VMamba standing out as a pioneering architecture designed for vision tasks. However, their generalization performance degrades significantly under distribution shifts. To address this limitation, we propose TRUST (Test-Time Refinement using Uncertainty-Guided SSM Traverses), a novel test-time adaptation (TTA) method that leverages diverse traversal permutations to generate multiple causal perspectives of the input image. Model predictions serve as pseudo-labels to guide updates of the Mamba-specific parameters, and the adapted weights are averaged to integrate the learned information across traversal scans. Altogether, TRUST is the first approach that explicitly leverages the unique architectural properties of SSMs for adaptation. Experiments on seven benchmarks show that TRUST consistently improves robustness and outperforms existing TTA methods.

Real-world multivariate time series anomalies are rare and often unlabeled. Additionally, prevailing methods rely on increasingly complex architectures tuned to benchmarks, detecting only fragments of anomalous segments and overstating performance. In this paper, we introduce OracleAD, a simple and interpretable unsupervised framework for multivariate time series anomaly detection. OracleAD encodes each variable’s past sequence into a single causal embedding to jointly predict the present time point and reconstruct the input window, effectively modeling temporal dynamics. These embeddings then undergo self-attention mechanism to project them into a shared latent space and capture spatial relationships. These relationships are not static, since they are modeled by a property that emerges from each variable's temporal dynamics. The projected embeddings are aligned to a Stable Latent Structure (SLS) representing normal-state relationships. Anomalies are identified using a dual scoring mechanism based on prediction error and deviation from the SLS, enabling fine-grained anomaly diagnosis at each time point and across individual variables. Since any noticeable SLS deviation originates from embeddings that violate the learned temporal causality of normal data, OracleAD directly pinpoints the root-cause variables at the embedding level. OracleAD achieves state-of-the-art results across multiple real-world datasets and evaluation protocols, while remaining interpretable through SLS.

Time series forecasting is a critical and complex task, characterized by diverse temporal patterns, varying statistical properties, and different prediction horizons across datasets and domains. Conventional approaches typically rely on a single, unified model architecture to handle all forecasting scenarios. However, such monolithic models struggle to generalize across dynamically evolving time series with shifting patterns. In reality, different types of time series may require distinct modeling strategies. Some benefit from homogeneous multi-scale forecasting awareness, while others rely on more complex and heterogeneous signal perception. Relying on a single model to capture all temporal diversity and structural variations leads to limited performance and poor interpretability. To address this challenge, we propose a Multi-Agent Forecasting System (MAFS) that abandons the one-size-fits-all paradigm. MAFS decomposes the forecasting task into multiple sub-tasks, each handled by a dedicated agent trained on specific temporal perspectives (e.g., different forecasting resolutions or signal characteristics). Furthermore, to achieve holistic forecasting, agents share and refine information through different communication topology, enabling cooperative reasoning across different temporal views. A lightweight voting aggregator then integrates their outputs into consistent final predictions. Extensive experiments across 11 benchmarks demonstrate that MAFS significantly outperforms traditional single-model approaches, yielding more robust and adaptable forecasts.

Robust validation metrics remain essential in contemporary deep learning, not only to detect overfitting and poor generalization, but also to monitor training dynamics. In the supervised classification setting, we investigate whether interactions between training data and model weights can yield such a metric that both tracks generalization during training and attributes performance to individual training samples. We introduce Gradient-Weight Alignment (GWA), quantifying the coherence between per-sample gradients and model weights. We show that effective learning corresponds to coherent alignment, while misalignment indicates deteriorating generalization. GWA is efficiently computable during training and reflects both sample-specific contributions and dataset-wide learning dynamics. Extensive experiments show that GWA accurately predicts optimal early stopping, enables principled model comparisons, and identifies influential training samples, providing a validation-set-free approach for model analysis directly from the training data.

Dense matching methods like DUSt3R regress pairwise pointmaps for 3D reconstruction. However, the reliance on pairwise prediction and the limited generalization capability inherently restrict the global geometric consistency. In this work, we introduce \textbf{Test3R}, a surprisingly simple test-time learning technique that significantly boosts geometric accuracy. Using image triplets ($I_1,I_2,I_3$), Test3R generates reconstructions from pairs ($I_1,I_2$) and ($I_1,I_3$). The core idea is to optimize the network at test time via a self-supervised objective: maximizing the geometric consistency between these two reconstructions relative to the common image $I_1$. This ensures the model produces cross-pair consistent outputs, regardless of the inputs. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our technique significantly outperforms previous state-of-the-art methods on the 3D reconstruction and multi-view depth estimation tasks. Moreover, it is universally applicable and nearly cost-free, making it easily applied to other models and implemented with minimal test-time training overhead and parameter footprint. Code is available at https://github.com/nopQAQ/Test3R.

The Time-Dependent Traveling Salesman Problem (TDTSP) extends classical TSP with dynamic edge weights that vary with departure time, reflecting real-world scenarios like transportation networks, where travel times fluctuate due to congestion patterns. TDTSP violates symmetry, triangle inequality, and cyclic invariance properties of classical TSP, creating unique computational challenges. In this paper, we propose a neural model that extends MatNet from static asymmetric TSP to time-dependent settings through an adjacency tensor that captures temporal variations, followed by a time-aware decoder. Our architecture addresses the unique challenge where asymmetry and triangle inequality violations change dynamically with time. Beyond architectural innovations, our research reveals a critical evaluation insight: many practical TDTSP instances maintain the same optimal solution regardless of time-dependent edge weights. This exposes a fundamental limitation in current evaluation practices for TDTSP that rely solely on average travel time metrics across all instances. Such metrics fail to effectively distinguish between methods that genuinely capture temporal dynamics and those that merely perform well on static routing problems. Instead, we present extensive experiments on real-world datasets, evaluating our approach on both entire datasets and specifically filtered instances where temporal dependencies alter the optimal solution. Results show that our method achieves state-of-the-art average optimality gap on full instances and significant travel time reduction on instances for which time-aware routing saves time. These results demonstrate state-of-the-art ability to identify and exploit temporal dependencies while establishing new standards for evaluating routing problems with temporal dependencies.

One main challenge in time series anomaly detection for industrial IoT lies in the complex spatio-temporal couplings within multivariate data. However, as traditional anomaly detection methods focus on modeling spatial or temporal dependencies independently, resulting in suboptimal representation learning and limited sensitivity to anomalous dispersion in high-dimensional spaces. In this work, we conduct an empirical analysis showing that both normal and anomalous samples tend to scatter in high-dimensional space, especially anomalous samples are markedly more dispersed. We formalize this dispersion phenomenon as scattering, quantified by the mean pairwise distance among sample representations, and leverage it as an inductive signal to enhance spatio-temporal anomaly detection. Technically, we propose ScatterAD to model representation scattering across temporal and topological dimensions. ScatterAD incorporates a topological encoder for capturing graph-structured scattering and a temporal encoder for constraining over-scattering through mean squared error minimization between neighboring time steps. We introduce a contrastive fusion mechanism to ensure the complementarity of the learned temporal and topological representations. Additionally, we theoretically show that maximizing the conditional mutual information between temporal and topological views improves cross-view consistency and enhances more discriminative representations. Extensive experiments on multiple public benchmarks show that ScatterAD achieves state-of-the-art performance on multivariate time series anomaly detection.

The function of biomolecules such as proteins depends on their ability to interconvert between a wide range of structures or conformations. Researchers have endeavored for decades to develop computational methods to predict the distribution of conformations, which is far harder to determine experimentally than a static folded structure. We present ConforMix, an inference-time algorithm that enhances sampling of conformational distributions using a combination of classifier guidance, filtering, and free energy estimation. Our approach upgrades diffusion models---whether trained for static structure prediction or conformational generation---to enable more efficient discovery of conformational variability without requiring prior knowledge of major degrees of freedom. ConforMix is orthogonal to improvements in model pretraining and would benefit even a hypothetical model that perfectly reproduced the Boltzmann distribution. Remarkably, when applied to a diffusion model trained for static structure prediction, ConforMix captures structural changes including domain motion, cryptic pocket flexibility, and transporter cycling, while avoiding unphysical states. Case studies of biologically critical proteins demonstrate the scalability, accuracy, and utility of this method.

The influence function serves as an efficient post-hoc interpretability tool that quantifies the impact of training data modifications on model parameters, enabling enhanced model performance, improved generalization, and interpretability insights without the need for expensive retraining processes. Recently, Multivariate Time Series (MTS) analysis has become an important yet challenging task, attracting significant attention. While channel extremely matters to MTS tasks, channel-centric methods are still largely under-explored for MTS. Particularly, no previous work studied the effects of channel information of MTS in order to explore counterfactual effects between these channels and model performance. To fill this gap, we propose a novel Channel-wise Influence (ChInf) method that is the first to estimate the influence of different channels in MTS. Based on ChInf, we naturally derived two channel-wise algorithms by incorporating ChInf into classic MTS tasks. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of ChInf and ChInf-based methods in critical MTS analysis tasks, such as MTS anomaly detection and MTS data pruning. Specifically, our ChInf-based methods rank top-1 among all methods for comparison, while previous influence functions do not perform well on MTS anomaly detection tasks and MTS data pruning problem. This fully supports the superiority and necessity of ChInf.

Encountering shifted data at test time is a ubiquitous challenge when deploying predictive machine learning models. Test-time adaptation (TTA) methods aim to address this issue by continuously adapting a deployed model using only unlabeled test data. While TTA can help extend the model's deployment lifespan, there are scenarios where, despite adaptation, the drop in the model's performance remains significant enough to warrant taking the model offline and retraining. To detect such failure cases, we propose pairing TTA with risk monitoring frameworks that track predictive performance and raise alerts when predefined performance criteria are violated. Specifically, we extend existing monitoring tools based on sequential testing with confidence sequences to accommodate scenarios where the model is updated at test time and no test labels are available to estimate the performance metrics of interest. Our extensions unlock the application of rigorous statistical risk monitoring in TTA and we demonstrate applicability of our proposed TTA monitoring framework across a representative set of TTA methods, datasets and distribution shift types.