NeurIPS 2025 论文列表

We study dynamic regret in online convex optimization, where the objective is to achieve low cumulative loss relative to an arbitrary benchmark sequence. By observing that competing with an arbitrary sequence of comparators $u_{1},\ldots,u_{T}$ in $\mathcal{W}\subseteq\mathbb{R}^{d}$ can be reframed as competing with a *fixed* comparator *function* $u:[1,T]\to \mathcal{W}$, we cast dynamic regret minimization as a *static regret* problem in a *function space*. By carefully constructing a suitable function space in the form of a Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS), our reduction enables us to recover the optimal $R_{T}(u_{1},\ldots,u_{T}) = \mathcal{O}(\sqrt{\sum_{t}\\|u_{t}-u_{t-1}\\|T})$ dynamic regret guarantee in the setting of linear losses, and yields new scale-free and directionally-adaptive dynamic regret guarantees. Moreover, unlike prior dynamic-to-static reductions---which are valid only for linear losses---our reduction holds for *any* sequence of losses, allowing us to recover $\mathcal{O}\big(\\|u\\|^2+d_{\mathrm{eff}}(\lambda)\ln T\big)$ bounds when the losses have meaningful curvature, where $d_{\mathrm{eff}}(\lambda)$ is a measure of complexity of the RKHS. Despite working in an infinite-dimensional space, the resulting reduction leads to algorithms that are computable in practice, due to the reproducing property of RKHSs.

Conformal prediction is an emerging technique for uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true label with a predefined probability. Recent work develops online conformal prediction methods that adaptively construct prediction sets to accommodate distribution shifts. However, existing algorithms typically assume *perfect label accuracy* which rarely holds in practice. In this work, we investigate the robustness of online conformal prediction under uniform label noise with a known noise rate. We show that label noise causes a persistent gap between the actual mis-coverage rate and the desired rate $\alpha$, leading to either overestimated or underestimated coverage guarantees. To address this issue, we propose a novel loss function *robust pinball loss*, which provides an unbiased estimate of clean pinball loss without requiring ground-truth labels. Theoretically, we demonstrate that robust pinball loss enables online conformal prediction to eliminate the coverage gap under uniform label noise, achieving a convergence rate of $\mathcal{O}(T^{-1/2})$ for both empirical and expected coverage errors (i.e., absolute deviation of the empirical and expected mis-coverage rate from the target level $\alpha$). This loss offers a general solution to the uniform label noise, and is complementary to existing online conformal prediction methods. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed loss enhances the noise robustness of various online conformal prediction methods by achieving a precise coverage guarantee.

We explore the concept of replicability, which ensures algorithmic consistency despite input data variations, for online pricing problems, specifically prophet inequalities and delegation. Given the crucial role of replicability in enhancing transparency in economic decision-making, we present a replicable and nearly optimal pricing strategy for prophet inequalities, achieving a sample complexity of $\textnormal{poly}(\log^* |\mathcal{X}|)$, where $\mathcal{X}$ is the ground set of distributions. Furthermore, we extend these findings to the delegation problem and establish lower bound that proves the necessity of the $\log^*|\mathcal{X}|$ dependence. En route to obtaining these results, we develop a number of technical contributions which are of independent interest. Most notably, we propose a new algorithm for a variant of the heavy hitter problem, which has a nearly linear dependence on the inverse of the heavy hitter parameter, significantly improving upon existing results which have a cubic dependence.

Prediction with expert advice serves as a fundamental model in online learning and sequential decision-making. However, in many real-world settings, this classical model proves insufficient as the feedback available to the decision-maker is often subject to noise, errors, or communication constraints. This paper provides fundamental limits on performance, quantified by the regret, in the case when the feedback is corrupted by an additive noise. Our general analysis achieves sharp regret bounds for canonical examples of such additive noise as the Gaussian distribution, the uniform distribution, and a general noise with a log-concave density. This analysis demonstrates how different noise characteristics affect regret bounds and identifies how the regret fundamentally scales as a function of the properties of the noise distribution.

In online inverse linear optimization, a learner observes time-varying sets of feasible actions and an agent's optimal actions, selected by solving linear optimization over the feasible actions. The learner sequentially makes predictions of the agent's true linear objective function, and their quality is measured by the *regret*, the cumulative gap between optimal objective values and those achieved by following the learner's predictions. A seminal work by Bärmann et al. (2017) obtained a regret bound of $O(\sqrt{T})$, where $T$ is the time horizon. Subsequently, the regret bound has been improved to $O(n^4 \ln T)$ by Besbes et al. (2021, 2025) and to $O(n \ln T)$ by Gollapudi et al. (2021), where $n$ is the dimension of the ambient space of objective vectors. However, these logarithmic-regret methods are highly inefficient when $T$ is large, as they need to maintain regions specified by $O(T)$ constraints, which represent possible locations of the true objective vector. In this paper, we present the first logarithmic-regret method whose per-round complexity is independent of $T$; indeed, it achieves the best-known bound of $O(n \ln T)$. Our method is strikingly simple: it applies the online Newton step (ONS) to appropriate exp-concave loss functions. Moreover, for the case where the agent's actions are possibly suboptimal, we establish a regret bound of $O(n\ln T + \sqrt{\Delta_T n\ln T})$, where $\Delta_T$ is the cumulative suboptimality of the agent's actions. This bound is achieved by using MetaGrad, which runs ONS with $\Theta(\ln T)$ different learning rates in parallel. We also present a lower bound of $\Omega(n)$, showing that the $O(n\ln T)$ bound is tight up to an $O(\ln T)$ factor.

We study the value of stochastic predictions in online optimal control with random disturbances. Prior work provides performance guarantees based on prediction error but ignores the stochastic dependence between predictions and disturbances. We introduce a general framework modeling their joint distribution and define "prediction power" as the control cost improvement from the optimal use of predictions compared to ignoring the predictions. In the time-varying Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) setting, we derive a closed-form expression for prediction power and discuss its mismatch with prediction accuracy and connection with online policy optimization. To extend beyond LQR, we study general dynamics and costs. We establish a lower bound on prediction power under two sufficient conditions that generalize the properties of the LQR setting, characterizing the fundamental benefit of incorporating stochastic predictions. We apply this lower bound to non-quadratic costs and show that even weakly dependent predictions yield significant performance gains.

Bandit Convex Optimization is a fundamental class of sequential decision-making problems, where the learner selects actions from a continuous domain and observes a loss (but not its gradient) at only one point per round. We study this problem in non-stationary environments, and aim to minimize the regret under three standard measures of non-stationarity: the number of switches $S$ in the comparator sequence, the total variation $\Delta$ of the loss functions, and the path-length $P$ of the comparator sequence. We propose a polynomial-time algorithm, Tilted Exponentially Weighted Average with Sleeping Experts (TEWA-SE), which adapts the sleeping experts framework from online convex optimization to the bandit setting. For strongly convex losses, we prove that TEWA-SE is minimax-optimal with respect to known $S$ and $\Delta$ by establishing matching upper and lower bounds. By equipping TEWA-SE with the Bandit-over-Bandit framework, we extend our analysis to environments with unknown non-stationarity measures. For general convex losses, we introduce a second algorithm, clipped Exploration by Optimization (cExO), based on exponential weights over a discretized action space. While not polynomial-time computable, this method achieves minimax-optimal regret with respect to known $S$ and $\Delta$, and improves on the best existing bounds with respect to $P$.

In online allocation problems, an algorithm must choose from a set of options at each step, where each option incurs a set of costs/rewards associated with a set of $d$ agents. The goal is to minimize/maximize a function of the accumulated costs/rewards assigned to the agents over the course of the entire allocation process. Such problems are common in combinatorial optimization, including minimization problems such as machine scheduling and network routing, as well as maximization problems such as fair allocation for welfare maximization. In this paper, we develop a general learning-augmented algorithmic framework for online allocation problems that produces a nearly optimal solution using only a single $d$-dimensional vector of learned weights. Using this general framework, we derive learning-augmented online algorithms for a broad range of application problems in routing, scheduling, and fair allocation. Our main tool is convex programming duality, which may also have further implications for learning-augmented algorithms in the future.