NeurIPS 2025 论文列表

Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems

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Learning from A Single Markovian Trajectory: Optimality and Variance Reduction

Zhenyu Sun, Ermin Wei

展开摘要

In this paper, we consider the general stochastic non-convex optimization problem when the sampling process follows a Markov chain. This problem exhibits its significance in capturing many real-world applications, ranging from asynchronous distributed learning to reinforcement learning. In particular, we consider the worst case where one has no prior knowledge and control of the Markov chain, meaning multiple trajectories cannot be simulated but only a single trajectory is available for algorithm design. We first provide algorithm-independent lower bounds with $\Omega(\epsilon^{-3})$ (and $\Omega(\epsilon^{-4})$) samples, when objectives are (mean-squared) smooth, for any first-order methods accessing bounded variance gradient oracles to achieve $\epsilon$-approximate critical solutions of original problems. Then, we propose \textbf{Ma}rkov-\textbf{C}hain \textbf{SPIDER} (MaC-SPIDER), which leverages variance-reduced techniques, to achieve a $\mathcal{O}(\epsilon^{-3})$ upper bound for mean-squared smooth objective functions. To the best of our knowledge, MaC-SPIDER is the first to achieve $\mathcal{O}(\epsilon^{-3})$ complexity when sampling from a single Markovian trajectory. And our proposed lower bound concludes its (near) optimality.

Poster
Adversarial Robustness of Nonparametric Regression

Parsa Moradi, Hanzaleh Akbari Nodehi, Mohammad Ali Maddah-Ali

展开摘要

In this paper, we investigate the adversarial robustness of nonparametric regression, a fundamental problem in machine learning, under the setting where an adversary can arbitrarily corrupt a subset of the input data. While the robustness of parametric regression has been extensively studied, its nonparametric counterpart remains largely unexplored. We characterize the adversarial robustness in nonparametric regression, assuming the regression function belongs to the second-order Sobolev space (i.e., it is square integrable up to its second derivative). The contribution of this paper is two-fold: (i) we establish a minimax lower bound on the estimation error, revealing a fundamental limit that no estimator can overcome, and (ii) we show that, perhaps surprisingly, the classical smoothing spline estimator, when properly regularized, exhibits robustness against adversarial corruption. These results imply that if $o(n)$ out of $n$ samples are corrupted, the estimation error of the smoothing spline vanishes as $n \to \infty$. On the other hand, when a constant fraction of the data is corrupted, no estimator can guarantee vanishing estimation error, implying the optimality of the smoothing spline in terms of maximum tolerable number of corrupted samples.

Poster
CamEdit: Continuous Camera Parameter Control for Photorealistic Image Editing

Xinran Qin, Zhixin Wang, Fan Li, Haoyu Chen, Renjing Pei, Wenbo Li, Xiaochun Cao

展开摘要

Recent advances in diffusion models have substantially improved text-driven image editing. However, existing frameworks based on discrete textual tokens struggle to support continuous control over camera parameters and smooth transitions in visual effects. These limitations hinder their applications to realistic, camera-aware, and fine-grained editing tasks. In this paper, we present CamEdit, a diffusion-based framework for photorealistic image editing that enables continuous and semantically meaningful manipulation of common camera parameters such as aperture and shutter speed. CamEdit incorporates a continuous parameter prompting mechanism and a parameter-aware modulation module that guides the model in smoothly adjusting focal plane, aperture, and shutter speed, reflecting the effects of varying camera settings within the diffusion process. To support supervised learning in this setting, we introduce CamEdit50K, a dataset specifically designed for photorealistic image editing with continuous camera parameter settings. It contains over 50k image pairs combining real and synthetic data with dense camera parameter variations across diverse scenes. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CamEdit enables flexible, consistent, and high-fidelity image editing, achieving state-of-the-art performance in camera-aware visual manipulation and fine-grained photographic control.

Poster
Improve Temporal Reasoning in Multimodal Large Language Models via Video Contrastive Decoding

Daiqing Qi, Dongliang Guo, Hanzhang Yuan, Handong Zhao, Mengxuan Hu, Lehan Yang, Sheng Li

展开摘要

A major distinction between video and image understanding is that the former requires reasoning over time. Existing Video Large Language Models (VLLMs) demonstrate promising performance in general video understanding, such as brief captioning or object recognition within individual frames. However, they often struggle with temporal reasoning such as understanding continuous actions or tracking object transformations over time—which typically demands the integration of multiple frames in a temporally coherent manner. We first explore and explain such failures in Video LLMs from the perspective of \textit{language and ``image'' priors.} While existing research has attempted to enhance the temporal understanding of VLLMs through various training strategies, the demand for expensive computational resources and training data often presents significant barriers. To this end, we further propose a simple yet novel idea for improving temporal reasoning in videos at no additional training cost. Specifically, to better capture the temporal structure across multiple frames—the key to effective temporal reasoning—we distort the temporal consistency in key frames \textit{during the decoding phase}. Such corruption induces time-insensitive wrong responses from the model, which are then contrastively avoided when generating the final correct output. In this way, the model is encouraged to perform more temporally coherent reasoning. Our method yields consistent improvements across both temporal-specific and general video understanding benchmarks, demonstrating its effectiveness and generalizability.

Poster
Inference with correlated priors using sisters cells

Sina Tootoonian, Andreas T. Schaefer

展开摘要

A common view of sensory processing is as probabilistic inference of latent causes from receptor activations. Standard approaches often assume these causes are \textit{a priori} independent, yet real-world generative factors are typically correlated. Representing such structured priors in neural systems poses architectural challenges, particularly when direct interactions between units representing latent causes are biologically implausible or computationally expensive. Inspired by the architecture of the olfactory bulb, we propose a novel circuit motif that enables inference with correlated priors without requiring direct interactions among latent cause units. The key insight lies in using \textit{sister cells}: neurons receiving shared receptor input but connected differently to local interneurons. The required interactions among latent units are implemented indirectly through their connections to the sister cells, such that correlated connectivity implies anti-correlation in the prior and vice versa. We use geometric arguments to construct connectivity that implements a given prior and to bound the number of causes for which such priors can be constructed. Using simulations, we demonstrate the efficacy of such priors for inference in noisy environments and compare the inference dynamics to those experimentally observed. Finally, we show how, under certain assumptions on latent representations, the prior used can be inferred from sister cell activations. While biologically grounded in the olfactory system, our mechanism generalises to other natural and artificial sensory systems and may inform the design of architectures for efficient inference under correlated latent structure.

Poster
A Finite Sample Analysis of Distributional TD Learning with Linear Function Approximation

Yang Peng, Kaicheng Jin, Liangyu Zhang, Zhihua Zhang

展开摘要

In this paper, we study the finite-sample statistical rates of distributional temporal difference (TD) learning with linear function approximation. The aim of distributional TD learning is to estimate the return distribution of a discounted Markov decision process for a given policy $\pi$. Previous works on statistical analysis of distributional TD learning mainly focus on the tabular case. In contrast, we first consider the linear function approximation setting and derive sharp finite-sample rates. Our theoretical results demonstrate that the sample complexity of linear distributional TD learning matches that of classic linear TD learning. This implies that, with linear function approximation, learning the full distribution of the return from streaming data is no more difficult than learning its expectation (value function). To derive tight sample complexity bounds, we conduct a fine-grained analysis of the linear-categorical Bellman equation and employ the exponential stability arguments for products of random matrices. Our results provide new insights into the statistical efficiency of distributional reinforcement learning algorithms.

Poster
RePO: Understanding Preference Learning Through ReLU-Based Optimization

Junkang Wu, Kexin Huang, Xue Wang, Jinyang Gao, Bolin Ding, Jiancan Wu, Xiangnan He, Xiang Wang

展开摘要

Preference learning has become a common approach in various recent methods for aligning large language models with human values. These methods optimize the preference margin between chosen and rejected responses, subject to certain constraints for avoiding over-optimization. In this paper, we report surprising empirical findings that simple ReLU activation can learn meaningful alignments even using \emph{none} of the following: (i) sigmoid-based gradient constraints, (ii) explicit regularization terms. Our experiments show that over-optimization does exist, but a threshold parameter $\gamma$ plays an essential role in preventing it by dynamically filtering training examples. We further provide theoretical analysis demonstrating that ReLU-based Preference Optimization (RePO) corresponds to the convex envelope of the 0-1 loss, establishing its fundamental soundness. Our ``RePO'' method achieves competitive or superior results compared to established preference optimization approaches. We hope this simple baseline will motivate researchers to rethink the fundamental mechanisms behind preference optimization for language model alignment.

Poster
Synergy over Discrepancy: A Partition-Based Approach to Multi-Domain LLM Fine-Tuning

Hua Ye, Siyuan Chen, Haoliang Zhang, Weihao Luo, Yanbin Li, Xuan Zhang

展开摘要

Large language models (LLMs) demonstrate impressive generalization abilities, yet adapting them effectively across multiple heterogeneous domains remains challenging due to inter-domain interference. To overcome this challenge, we propose a partition-based multi-stage fine-tuning framework designed to exploit inter-domain synergies while minimizing negative transfer. Our approach strategically partitions domains into subsets (stages) by balancing domain discrepancy, synergy, and model capacity constraints. We theoretically analyze the proposed framework and derive novel generalization bounds that justify our partitioning strategy. Extensive empirical evaluations on various language understanding tasks show that our method consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines.

Poster
R-KV: Redundancy-aware KV Cache Compression for Reasoning Models

Zefan Cai, Wen Xiao, Hanshi Sun, Cheng Luo, Yikai Zhang, Ke Wan, YUCHENG LI, Yeyang Zhou, Li-Wen Chang, Jiuxiang Gu, Zhen Dong, Anima Anandkumar, Abedelkadir Asi, Junjie Hu

展开摘要

Reasoning models have demonstrated impressive performance in self-reflection and chain-of-thought reasoning. However, they often produce excessively long outputs, leading to prohibitively large key-value (KV) caches during inference. While chain-of-thought inference significantly improves performance on complex reasoning tasks, it can also lead to reasoning failures when deployed with existing KV cache compression approaches. To address this, we propose Redundancy-aware KV Cache Compression for Reasoning models (R-KV), a novel method specifically targeting redundant tokens in reasoning models. Our method preserves nearly 100% of the full KV cache performance using only 10% of the KV cache, substantially outperforming existing KV cache baselines, which reach only 60% of the performance. Remarkably, R-KV even achieves 105% of full KV cache performance with 38% of the KV cache. This KV-cache reduction also leads to a 50% memory saving and a 2x speedup over standard chain-of-thought reasoning inference. Experimental results show that R-KV consistently outperforms existing KV cache compression baselines across two mathematical reasoning datasets.

Poster
FairDICE: Fairness-Driven Offline Multi-Objective Reinforcement Learning

Woosung Kim, Jinho Lee, Jongmin Lee, Byung-Jun Lee

展开摘要

Multi-objective reinforcement learning (MORL) aims to optimize policies in the presence of conflicting objectives, where linear scalarization is commonly used to reduce vector-valued returns into scalar signals. While effective for certain preferences, this approach cannot capture fairness-oriented goals such as Nash social welfare or max-min fairness, which require nonlinear and non-additive trade-offs. Although several online algorithms have been proposed for specific fairness objectives, a unified approach for optimizing nonlinear welfare criteria in the offline setting—where learning must proceed from a fixed dataset—remains unexplored. In this work, we present FairDICE, the first offline MORL framework that directly optimizes nonlinear welfare objective. FairDICE leverages distribution correction estimation to jointly account for welfare maximization and distributional regularization, enabling stable and sample-efficient learning without requiring explicit preference weights or exhaustive weight search. Across multiple offline benchmarks, FairDICE demonstrates strong fairness-aware performance compared to existing baselines.

Poster
Online Inverse Linear Optimization: Efficient Logarithmic-Regret Algorithm, Robustness to Suboptimality, and Lower Bound

Shinsaku Sakaue, Taira Tsuchiya, Han Bao, Taihei Oki

展开摘要

In online inverse linear optimization, a learner observes time-varying sets of feasible actions and an agent's optimal actions, selected by solving linear optimization over the feasible actions. The learner sequentially makes predictions of the agent's true linear objective function, and their quality is measured by the *regret*, the cumulative gap between optimal objective values and those achieved by following the learner's predictions. A seminal work by Bärmann et al. (2017) obtained a regret bound of $O(\sqrt{T})$, where $T$ is the time horizon. Subsequently, the regret bound has been improved to $O(n^4 \ln T)$ by Besbes et al. (2021, 2025) and to $O(n \ln T)$ by Gollapudi et al. (2021), where $n$ is the dimension of the ambient space of objective vectors. However, these logarithmic-regret methods are highly inefficient when $T$ is large, as they need to maintain regions specified by $O(T)$ constraints, which represent possible locations of the true objective vector. In this paper, we present the first logarithmic-regret method whose per-round complexity is independent of $T$; indeed, it achieves the best-known bound of $O(n \ln T)$. Our method is strikingly simple: it applies the online Newton step (ONS) to appropriate exp-concave loss functions. Moreover, for the case where the agent's actions are possibly suboptimal, we establish a regret bound of $O(n\ln T + \sqrt{\Delta_T n\ln T})$, where $\Delta_T$ is the cumulative suboptimality of the agent's actions. This bound is achieved by using MetaGrad, which runs ONS with $\Theta(\ln T)$ different learning rates in parallel. We also present a lower bound of $\Omega(n)$, showing that the $O(n\ln T)$ bound is tight up to an $O(\ln T)$ factor.

Poster
Bridging Scales: Spectral Theory Reveals How Local Connectivity Rules Sculpt Global Neural Dynamics in Spatially Extended Networks

Yuhan Huang, Keren Gao, Dongping Yang, Sen Song, Guozhang Chen

展开摘要

The brain's diverse spatiotemporal activity patterns are fundamental to cognition and consciousness, yet how these macroscopic dynamics emerge from microscopic neural circuitry remains a critical challenge. We take a step in this direction by developing a spatially extended neural network model integrated with a spectral theory of its connectivity matrix. Our theory quantitatively demonstrates how local structural parameters, such as E/I neuron projection ranges, connection strengths, and density determine distinct features of the eigenvalue spectrum, specifically outlier eigenvalues and a bulk disk. These spectral signatures, in turn, precisely predict the network's emergent global dynamical regime, encompassing asynchronous states, synchronous states, oscillations, localized activity bumps, traveling waves, and chaos. Motivated by observations of shifting cortical dynamics in mice across arousal states, our framework not only provides a possible explanation for repertoire of behaviors but also offers a principled starting point for inferring underlying effective connectivity changes from macroscopic brain activity. By mechanistically linking neural structure to dynamics, this work advances a principled framework for dissecting how large-scale activity patterns—central to cognition and open questions in consciousness research—arise from, and constrain, local circuitry. The implementation code is available at https://github.com/huang-yh20/spatial-linear-project.

Poster
Spectral Learning for Infinite-Horizon Average-Reward POMDPs

Alessio Russo, Alberto Maria Metelli, Marcello Restelli

展开摘要

We address the learning problem in the context of infinite-horizon average-reward POMDPs. Traditionally, this problem has been approached using $\textit{Spectral Decomposition}$ (SD) methods applied to samples collected under non-adaptive policies, such as uniform or round-robin policies. Recently, SD techniques have been extended to accommodate a restricted class of adaptive policies such as $\textit{memoryless policies}$. However, the use of adaptive policies has introduced challenges related to data inefficiency, as SD methods typically require all samples to be drawn from a single policy. In this work, we propose $\texttt{Mixed Spectral Estimation}$, which generalizes spectral estimation techniques to support a broader class of $\textit{belief-based policies}$. We solve the open question of whether spectral methods can be applied to samples collected from multiple policies, and we provide finite-sample guarantees for our approach under standard observability and ergodicity assumptions. Building on this data-efficient estimation method, we introduce the $\texttt{Mixed Spectral UCRL}$ algorithm. Through a refined theoretical analysis, we demonstrate that it achieves a regret bound of $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{T})$ when compared to the optimal policy, without requiring full knowledge of either the transition or the observation model. Finally, we present numerical simulations that validate the theoretical analysis of both the proposed estimation procedure and the $\texttt{Mixed Spectral UCRL}$ algorithm.

Poster
Information Retrieval Induced Safety Degradation in AI Agents

Cheng Yu, Benedikt Stroebl, Diyi Yang, Orestis Papakyriakopoulos

展开摘要

Despite the growing integration of retrieval-enabled AI agents into society, their safety and ethical behavior remain inadequately understood. In particular, the growing integration of LLMs and AI agents with external information sources and real-world environments raises critical questions about how they engage with and are influenced by these external data sources and interactive contexts. This study investigates how expanding retrieval access—from no external sources to Wikipedia-based retrieval and open web search—affects model reliability, bias propagation, and harmful content generation. Through extensive benchmarking of censored and uncensored LLMs and AI Agents, our findings reveal a consistent degradation in refusal rates, bias sensitivity, and harmfulness safeguards as models gain broader access to external sources, culminating in a phenomenon we term safety degradation. Notably, retrieval-enabled agents built on aligned LLMs often behave more unsafely than uncensored models without retrieval. This effect persists even under strong retrieval accuracy and prompt-based mitigation, suggesting that the mere presence of retrieved content reshapes model behavior in structurally unsafe ways. These findings underscore the need for robust mitigation strategies to ensure fairness and reliability in retrieval-enabled and increasingly autonomous AI systems.

Poster
Denoising Trajectory Biases for Zero-Shot AI-Generated Image Detection

Yachao Liang, Min Yu, Gang Li, Jianguo Jiang, Fuqiang Du, Li Jingyuan, Lanchi Xie, Zhen Xu, Weiqing Huang

展开摘要

The rapid advancement of generative models has led to the widespread emergence of highly realistic synthetic images, making the detection of AI-generated content increasingly critical. In particular, diffusion models have recently achieved unprecedented levels of visual fidelity, further raising concerns. While most existing approaches rely on supervised learning, zero-shot detection methods have attracted growing interest due to their ability to bypass data collection and maintenance. Nevertheless, the performance of current zero-shot methods remains limited. In this paper, we introduce a novel zero-shot AI-generated image detection method. Unlike previous works that primarily focus on identifying artifacts in the final generated images, our work explores features within the image generation process that can be leveraged for detection. Specifically, we simulate the image sampling process via diffusion-based inversion and observe that the denoising outputs of generated images converge to the target image more rapidly than those of real images. Inspired by this observation, we compute the similarity between the original image and the outputs along the denoising trajectory, which is then used as an indicator of image authenticity.Since our method requires no training on any generated images, it avoids overfitting to specific generative models or dataset biases. Experiments across a wide range of generators demonstrate that our method achieves significant improvements over state-of-the-art supervised and zero-shot counterparts.

Poster
Large language models can learn and generalize steganographic chain-of-thought under process supervision

Robert McCarthy, Joey SKAF, Luis Ibanez-Lissen, Vasil Georgiev, Connor Watts, Hannes Whittingham, Lorena Gonzalez-Manzano, Cameron Tice, Edward James Young, Puria Radmard, David Lindner

展开摘要

Chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning not only enhances large language model performance but also provides critical insights into decision-making processes, marking it as a useful tool for monitoring model intent and planning. By proactively preventing models from acting on CoT indicating misaligned or harmful intent, CoT monitoring can be used to reduce risks associated with deploying models. However, developers may be incentivized to train away the appearance of harmful intent from CoT traces, by either customer preferences or regulatory requirements. However, recent works have shown that banning the mention of a specific example of reward hacking causes obfuscation of the undesired reasoning traces but the persistence of the undesired behavior, threatening the reliability of CoT monitoring. However, obfuscation of reasoning can be due to its internalization to latent space computation, or its encoding within the CoT. We provide an extension to these results with regard to the ability of models to learn a specific type of obfuscated reasoning: steganography. First, we show that penalizing the use of specific strings within load-bearing reasoning traces causes models to substitute alternative strings. Crucially, this does not alter the underlying method by which the model performs the task, demonstrating that the model can learn to steganographically encode its reasoning. This is an example of models learning to encode their reasoning. We further demonstrate that models can generalize an encoding scheme. When the penalized strings belong to an overarching class, the model learns not only to substitute strings seen in training, but also develops a general encoding scheme for all members of the class which it can apply to held-out testing strings.

Poster
Cognitive Predictive Processing: A Human-inspired Framework for Adaptive Exploration in Open-World Reinforcement Learning

boheng liu, Ziyu Li, Chenghua Duan, YuTian Liu, Zhuo Wang, Xiuxing Li, Qing Li, Xia Wu

展开摘要

Open-world reinforcement learning challenges agents to develop intelligent behavior in vast exploration spaces. Recent approaches like LS-Imagine have advanced the field by extending imagination horizons through jumpy state transitions, yet remain limited by fixed exploration mechanisms and static jump thresholds that cannot adapt across changing task phases, resulting in inefficient exploration and lower completion rates. Humans demonstrate remarkable capabilities in open-world decision-making through a chain-like process of task decomposition, selective memory utilization, and adaptive uncertainty regulation. Inspired by human decision-making processes, we present Cognitive Predictive Processing (CPP), a novel framework that integrates three neurologically-inspired systems: a phase-adaptive cognitive controller that dynamically decomposes tasks into exploration, approach, and completion phases with adaptive parameters; a dual-memory integration system implementing dual-modal memory that balances immediate context with selective long-term storage; and an uncertainty-modulated prediction regulator that continuously updates environmental predictions to modulate exploration behavior. Comprehensive experiments in MineDojo demonstrate that these human-inspired decision-making strategies enhance performance over recent techniques, with success rates improving by an average of 4.6\% across resource collection tasks while reducing task completion steps by an average of 7.1\%. Our approach bridges cognitive neuroscience and reinforcement learning, excelling in complex scenarios that require sustained exploration and strategic adaptation while demonstrating how neural-inspired models can solve key challenges in open-world AI systems.

Poster
See&Trek: Training-Free Spatial Prompting for Multimodal Large Language Model

Pengteng Li, Pinhao Song, Wuyang Li, Huizai Yao, Weiyu Guo, Yijie Xu, Dugang Liu, Hui Xiong

展开摘要

We introduce See&Trek, the first training-free prompting framework tailored to enhance the spatial understanding of Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) under vision-only constraints. While prior efforts have incorporated modalities like depth or point clouds to improve spatial reasoning, purely visual-spatial understanding remains underexplored. See&Trek addresses this gap by focusing on two core principles: increasing visual diversity and motion reconstruction. For visual diversity, we conduct Maximum Semantic Richness Sampling, which employs an off-the-shell perception model to extract semantically rich keyframes that capture scene structure. For motion reconstruction, we simulate visual trajectories and encode relative spatial positions into keyframes to preserve both spatial relations and temporal coherence. Our method is training&GPU-free, requiring only a single forward pass, and can be seamlessly integrated into existing MLLMs. Extensive experiments on the VSI-Bench and STI-Bench show that See&Trek consistently boosts various MLLMs performance across diverse spatial reasoning tasks with the most +3.5% improvement, offering a promising path toward stronger spatial intelligence.

Poster
CovMatch: Cross-Covariance Guided Multimodal Dataset Distillation with Trainable Text Encoder

Yongmin Lee, Hye Won Chung

展开摘要

Multimodal dataset distillation aims to synthesize a small set of image-text pairs that enables efficient training of large-scale vision-language models. While dataset distillation has shown promise in unimodal tasks, extending it to multimodal contrastive learning presents key challenges: learning cross-modal alignment and managing the high computational cost of large encoders. Prior approaches address scalability by freezing the text encoder and update only the image encoder and text projection layer. However, we find this severely limits semantic alignment and becomes a bottleneck for performance scaling. We propose CovMatch, a scalable dataset distillation framework that aligns the cross-covariance of real and synthetic features while regularizing feature distributions within each modality. Unlike prior approaches, CovMatch enables joint optimization of both encoders, leading to stronger cross-modal alignment and improved performance. Evaluated on Flickr30K and COCO, CovMatch outperforms state-of-the-art multimodal distillation methods and achieves up to 6.8\% absolute gains in retrieval accuracy using only 500 synthetic pairs.

Poster
Conformal Inference under High-Dimensional Covariate Shifts via Likelihood-Ratio Regularization

Sunay Joshi, Shayan Kiyani, George J. Pappas, Edgar Dobriban, Hamed Hassani

展开摘要

We consider the problem of conformal prediction under covariate shift. Given labeled data from a source domain and unlabeled data from a covariate shifted target domain, we seek to construct prediction sets with valid marginal coverage in the target domain. Most existing methods require estimating the unknown likelihood ratio function, which can be prohibitive for high-dimensional data such as images. To address this challenge, we introduce the likelihood ratio regularized quantile regression (LR-QR) algorithm, which combines the pinball loss with a novel choice of regularization in order to construct a threshold function without directly estimating the unknown likelihood ratio. We show that the LR-QR method has coverage at the desired level in the target domain, up to a small error term that we can control. Our proofs draw on a novel analysis of coverage via stability bounds from learning theory. Our experiments demonstrate that the LR-QR algorithm outperforms existing methods on high-dimensional prediction tasks, including a regression task for the Communities and Crime dataset, an image classification task from the WILDS repository, and an LLM question-answering task on the MMLU benchmark.

Poster