NeurIPS 2025 论文列表

Probabilistic reasoning is a key aspect of both human and artificial intelligence that allows for handling uncertainty and ambiguity in decision-making. In this paper, we introduce a new numerical reasoning task under uncertainty for large language models, focusing on estimating the privacy risk of user-generated documents containing privacy-sensitive information. We propose BRANCH, a new LLM methodology that estimates the $k$-privacy value of a text—the size of the population matching the given information. BRANCH factorizes a joint probability distribution of personal information as random variables. The probability of each factor in a population is estimated separately using a Bayesian network and combined to compute the final $k$-value. Our experiments show that this method successfully estimates the $k$-value 73% of the time, a 13% increase compared to o3-mini with chain-of-thought reasoning. We also find that LLM uncertainty is a good indicator for accuracy, as high variance predictions are 37.47% less accurate on average.

Improving Multi-modal Large Language Models (MLLMs) in the post-training stage typically relies on supervised fine-tuning (SFT) or reinforcement learning (RL), which require expensive and manually annotated multi-modal data--an ultimately unsustainable resource. This limitation has motivated a growing interest in unsupervised paradigms as a third stage of post-training after SFT and RL. While recent efforts have explored this direction, their methods are complex and difficult to iterate. To address this, we propose MM-UPT, a simple yet effective framework for unsupervised post-training of MLLMs, enabling continual self-improvement without any external supervision. The training method of MM-UPT builds upon GRPO, replacing traditional reward signals with a self-rewarding mechanism based on majority voting over multiple sampled responses. Our experiments demonstrate that such training method effectively improves the reasoning ability of Qwen2.5-VL-7B (e.g., 66.3\%$\rightarrow$72.9\% on MathVista, 62.9\%$\rightarrow$68.7\% on We-Math), using standard dataset without ground truth labels. To further explore scalability, we extend our framework to a data self-generation setting, designing two strategies that prompt the MLLM to synthesize new training samples on its own. Additional experiments show that combining these synthetic data with the unsupervised training method can also boost performance, highlighting a promising approach for scalable self-improvement. Overall, MM-UPT offers a new paradigm for autonomous enhancement of MLLMs, serving as a critical third step after initial SFT and RL in the absence of external supervision. Our code is available at \url{https://github.com/waltonfuture/MM-UPT}.

The efficient deployment of large language models (LLMs) in online settings requires optimizing inference performance under stringent latency constraints, particularly the time-to-first-token (TTFT) and time-per-output-token (TPOT). This paper focuses on the query scheduling problem for LLM inference with prefix reuse, a technique that leverages shared prefixes across queries to reduce computational overhead. Our work reveals previously unknown limitations of the existing first-come-first-serve (FCFS) and longest-prefix-match (LPM) scheduling strategies with respect to satisfying latency constraints. We present a formal theoretical framework for LLM query scheduling under RadixAttention, a prefix reuse mechanism that stores and reuses intermediate representations in a radix tree structure. Our analysis establishes the NP-hardness of the scheduling problem with prefix reuse under TTFT constraints and proposes a novel scheduling algorithm, $k$-LPM, which generalizes existing methods by balancing prefix reuse and fairness in query processing. Theoretical guarantees demonstrate that $k$-LPM achieves improved TTFT performance under realistic traffic patterns captured by a data generative model. Empirical evaluations in a realistic serving setting validates our findings, showing significant reductions in P99 TTFT compared to baseline methods.

This work introduces Structured Linear Controlled Differential Equations (SLiCEs), a unifying framework for sequence models with structured, input-dependent state-transition matrices that retain the maximal expressivity of dense matrices whilst being cheaper to compute. The framework encompasses existing architectures, such as input-dependent block-diagonal linear recurrent neural networks and DeltaNet's diagonal-plus-low-rank structure, as well as two novel variants based on sparsity and the Walsh-Hadamard transform. We prove that, unlike the diagonal state-transition matrices of S4D and Mamba, SLiCEs employing block-diagonal, sparse, or Walsh-Hadamard matrices match the maximal expressivity of dense matrices. Empirically, SLiCEs solve the $A_5$ state-tracking benchmark with a single layer, achieve best-in-class length generalisation on regular language tasks among parallel-in-time models, and match the performance of log neural controlled differential equations on six multivariate time-series classification datasets while cutting the average time per training step by a factor of twenty.

Diffusion Transformers (DiTs) deliver state-of-the-art image quality, yet their training remains notoriously slow. A recent remedy---representation alignment (REPA) that matches DiT hidden features to those of a non-generative teacher (e.g., DINO)---dramatically accelerates the early epochs but plateaus or even degrades performance later. We trace this failure to the capacity mismatch: once the generative student begins modeling the joint data distribution, the teacher's lower-dimensional embeddings and attention patterns become a straitjacket rather than a guide. We then introduce HASTE (Holistic Alignment with Stage-wise Termination for Efficient training), a two-phase schedule that keeps the help and drops the hindrance. Phase I applies a holistic alignment loss that simultaneously distills attention maps (relational priors) and feature projections (semantic anchors) from the teacher into mid-level layers of the DiT, yielding rapid convergence. Phase II then performs one-shot termination that deactivates the alignment loss, once a simple trigger such as a fixed iteration is hit, freeing the DiT to focus on denoising and exploit its generative capacity. HASTE speeds up training of diverse DiTs without architecture changes. On ImageNet 256×256, it reaches the vanilla SiT-XL/2 baseline FID in 50 epochs and matches REPA’s best FID in 500 epochs, amounting to a 28× reduction in optimization steps. HASTE also improves text-to-image DiTs on MS-COCO, proving to be a simple yet principled recipe for efficient diffusion training across various tasks.

Riemannian symmetric spaces (RSS) such as hyperbolic spaces and symmetric positive definite (SPD) manifolds have become popular spaces for representation learning. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for building discriminative neural networks on Siegel spaces, a family of RSS that is largely unexplored in machine learning tasks. For classification applications, one focus of recent works is the construction of multiclass logistic regression (MLR) and fully-connected (FC) layers for hyperbolic and SPD neural networks. Here we show how to build such layers for Siegel neural networks. Our approach relies on the quotient structure of those spaces and the notation of vector-valued distance on RSS. We demonstrate the relevance of our approach on two applications, i.e., radar signal classification and node classification. Our results successfully demonstrate state-of-the-art performance across all datasets.

With businesses starting to deploy agents to act on their behalf, an emerging challenge that businesses have to contend with is how to incentivize other agents with differing interests to work alongside its own agent. In present day commerce, payment is a common way that different parties use to \emph{economically} align their interests. In this paper, we study how one could analogously learn such payment schemes for aligning agents in the decentralized multi-agent setting. We model this problem as a Stackelberg Markov game, in which the leader can commit to a policy and also designate a set of outcome-based payments. We are interested in answering the question: when do efficient learning algorithms exist? To this end, we characterize the computational and statistical complexity of planning and learning in general-sum and cooperative games. In general-sum games, we find that planning is computationally intractable. In cooperative games, we show that learning can be statistically hard without payment and efficient with payment, showing that payment is necessary for learning even with aligned rewards. Altogether, our work aims to consolidate our theoretical understanding of outcome-based payment algorithms that can economically align decentralized agents.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in scientific machine learning is increasingly critical as neural networks are widely adopted to tackle complex problems across diverse scientific disciplines. For physics-informed neural networks (PINNs), a prominent model in scientific machine learning, uncertainty is typically quantified using Bayesian or dropout methods. However, both approaches suffer from a fundamental limitation: the prior distribution or dropout rate required to construct honest confidence sets cannot be determined without additional information. In this paper, we propose a novel method within the framework of extended fiducial inference (EFI) to provide rigorous uncertainty quantification for PINNs. The proposed method leverages a narrow-neck hyper-network to learn the parameters of the PINN and quantify their uncertainty based on imputed random errors in the observations. This approach overcomes the limitations of Bayesian and dropout methods, enabling the construction of honest confidence sets based solely on observed data. This advancement represents a significant breakthrough for PINNs, greatly enhancing their reliability, interpretability, and applicability to real-world scientific and engineering challenges. Moreover, it establishes a new theoretical framework for EFI, extending its application to large-scale models, eliminating the need for sparse hyper-networks, and significantly improving the automaticity and robustness of statistical inference.

Selective prediction [Dru13, QV19] models the scenario where a forecaster freely decides on the prediction window that their forecast spans. Many data statistics can be predicted to a non-trivial error rate *without any* distributional assumptions or expert advice, yet these results rely on that the forecaster may predict at any time. We introduce a model of Prediction with Limited Selectivity (PLS) where the forecaster can start the prediction only on a subset of the time horizon. We study the optimal prediction error both on an instance-by-instance basis and via an average-case analysis. We introduce a complexity measure that gives instance-dependent bounds on the optimal error. For a randomly-generated PLS instance, these bounds match with high probability.

Large reconstruction model has remarkable progress, which can directly predict 3D or 4D representations for unseen scenes and objects. However, current work has not systematically explored the potential of large reconstruction models in the field of autonomous driving. To achieve this, we introduce the Large 4D Gaussian Reconstruction Model (DrivingRecon). With an elaborate and simple framework design, it not only ensures efficient and high-quality reconstruction, but also provides potential for downstream tasks. There are two core contributions: firstly, the Prune and Dilate Block (PD-Block) is proposed to prune redundant and overlapping Gaussian points and dilate Gaussian points for complex objects. Then, dynamic and static decoupling is tailored to better learn the temporary-consistent geometry across different time. Experimental results demonstrate that DrivingRecon significantly improves scene reconstruction quality compared to existing methods. Furthermore, we explore applications of DrivingRecon in model pre-training, vehicle type adaptation, and scene editing. Our code will be available.

Discrete diffusion has emerged as a powerful framework for generative modeling in discrete domains, yet efficiently sampling from these models remains challenging. Existing sampling strategies often struggle to balance computation and sample quality when the number of sampling steps is reduced, even when the model has learned the data distribution well. To address these limitations, we propose a predictor-corrector sampling scheme where the corrector is informed by the diffusion model to more reliably counter the accumulating approximation errors. To further enhance the effectiveness of our informed corrector, we introduce complementary architectural modifications based on hollow transformers and a simple tailored training objective that leverages more training signal. We use a synthetic example to illustrate the failure modes of existing samplers and show how informed correctors alleviate these problems. On the Text8 dataset, the informed corrector improves sample quality by generating text with significantly fewer errors than the baselines. On tokenized ImageNet 256x256, this approach consistently produces superior samples with fewer steps, achieving improved FID scores for discrete diffusion models. These results underscore the potential of informed correctors for fast and high-fidelity generation using discrete diffusion.

Detecting deepfakes has been an increasingly important topic, especially given the rapid development of AI generation techniques. In this paper, we ask: How can we build a universal detection framework that is effective for most facial deepfakes? One significant challenge is the wide variety of deepfake generators available, resulting in varying forgery artifacts (e.g., lighting inconsistency, color mismatch, etc). But should we ``teach" the detector to learn all these artifacts separately? It is impossible and impractical to elaborate on them all. So the core idea is to pinpoint the more common and general artifacts across different deepfakes. Accordingly, we categorize deepfake artifacts into two distinct yet complementary types: Face Inconsistency Artifacts (FIA) and Up-Sampling Artifacts (USA). FIA arise from the challenge of generating all intricate details, inevitably causing inconsistencies between the complex facial features and relatively uniform surrounding areas. USA, on the other hand, are the inevitable traces left by the generator's decoder during the up-sampling process. This categorization stems from the observation that all existing deepfakes typically exhibit one or both of these artifacts. To achieve this, we propose a new data-level pseudo-fake creation framework that constructs fake samples with only the FIA and USA, without introducing extra less-general artifacts. Specifically, we employ a super-resolution to simulate the USA, while utilise image-level self-blending on diverse facial regions to create the FIA. We surprisingly found that, with this intuitive design, a standard image classifier trained only with our pseudo-fake data can non-trivially generalize well to previously unseen deepfakes.

Federated Graph Learning (FGL) shows superiority in cross-domain graph training while preserving data privacy. Existing approaches usually assume shared generic knowledge (e.g., prototypes, spectral features) via aggregating local structures statistically to alleviate structural heterogeneity. However, imposing overly strict assumptions about the presumed correlation between structural features and the global objective often fails in generalizing to local tasks, leading to suboptimal performance. To tackle this issue, we propose a **Fed**erated **I**nvariant **G**raph **L**earning (**FedIGL**) framework based on invariant learning, which effectively disrupts spurious correlations and further mines the invariant factors across different distributions. Specifically, a server-side global model is trained to capture client-agnostic subgraph patterns shared across clients, whereas client-side models specialize in client-specific subgraph patterns. Subsequently, without compromising privacy, we propose a novel Bi-Gradient Regularization strategy that introduces gradient constraints to guide the model in identifying client-agnostic and client-specific subgraph patterns for better graph representations. Extensive experiments on graph-level clustering and classification tasks demonstrate the superiority of FedIGL against its competitors.

Listwise reranking with large language models (LLMs) enhances top-ranked results in retrieval-based applications. Due to the limit in context size and high inference cost of long context, reranking is typically performed over a fixed size of small subsets, with the final ranking aggregated from these partial results. This fixed computation disregards query difficulty and document distribution, leading to inefficiencies. We propose AcuRank, an adaptive reranking framework that dynamically adjusts both the amount and target of computation based on uncertainty estimates over document relevance. Using a Bayesian TrueSkill model, we iteratively refine relevance estimates until reaching sufficient confidence levels, and our explicit modeling of ranking uncertainty enables principled control over reranking behavior and avoids unnecessary updates to confident predictions. Results on the TREC-DL and BEIR benchmarks show that our method consistently achieves a superior accuracy–efficiency trade-off and scales better with compute than fixed-computation baselines. These results highlight the effectiveness and generalizability of our method across diverse retrieval tasks and LLM-based reranking models.

We consider a decentralized setup in which the participants collaboratively train and serve a large neural network, and where each participant only processes a subset of the model. In this setup, we explore the possibility of unmaterializable weights, where a full weight set is never available to any one participant. We introduce Unextractable Protocol Models (UPMs): a training and inference framework that leverages the sharded model setup to ensure model shards (i.e.,, subsets) held by participants are incompatible at different time steps. UPMs periodically inject time-varying, random, invertible transforms at participant boundaries; preserving the overall network function yet rendering cross-time assemblies incoherent. On Qwen-2.5-0.5B and Llama-3.2-1B, 10 000 transforms leave FP32 perplexity unchanged ($\Delta$PPL$< 0.01$; Jensen–Shannon drift $<4 \times 10^{-5}$), and we show how to control growth for lower precision datatypes. Applying a transform every 30s adds 3% latency, 0.1% bandwidth, and 10% GPU-memory overhead at inference, while training overhead falls to 1.6% time and < 1% memory. We consider several attacks, showing that the requirements of direct attacks are impractical and easy to defend against, and that gradient-based fine-tuning of stitched partitions consumes $\geq 60\%$ of the tokens required to train from scratch. By enabling models to be collaboratively trained yet not extracted, UPMs make it practical to embed programmatic incentive mechanisms in community-driven decentralized training.

We study the generalized linear bandit (GLB) problem, a contextual multi-armed bandit framework that extends the classical linear model by incorporating a non-linear link function, thereby modeling a broad class of reward distributions such as Bernoulli and Poisson. While GLBs are widely applicable to real-world scenarios, their non-linear nature introduces significant challenges in achieving both computational and statistical efficiency. Existing methods typically trade off between two objectives, either incurring high per-round costs for optimal regret guarantees or compromising statistical efficiency to enable constant-time updates. In this paper, we propose a jointly efficient algorithm that attains a nearly optimal regret bound with $\mathcal{O}(1)$ time and space complexities per round. The core of our method is a tight confidence set for the online mirror descent (OMD) estimator, which is derived through a novel analysis that leverages the notion of mix loss from online prediction. The analysis shows that our OMD estimator, even with its one-pass updates, achieves statistical efficiency comparable to maximum likelihood estimation, thereby leading to a jointly efficient optimistic method.

Time series forecasting plays a pivotal role in various real-world applications and has attracted significant attention in recent decades. While recent methods have achieved remarkable accuracy by incorporating advanced inductive biases and training strategies, we observe that instance-level variations remain a significant challenge. These variations—stemming from distribution shifts, missing data, and long-tail patterns—often lead to suboptimal forecasts for specific instances, even when overall performance appears strong. To address this issue, we propose a model-agnostic framework, PIR, designed to enhance forecasting performance through Post-forecasting Identification and Revision. Specifically, PIR first identifies biased forecast instances by estimating their predictive accuracy. Based on this, the framework revises the forecasts using contextual information, including covariates and historical time series, from both local and global perspectives in a post-processing fashion. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets with mainstream forecasting models demonstrate that PIR effectively mitigates instance-level errors and significantly improves forecasting reliability.

Accurate attribution for multiple platforms is critical for evaluating performance-based advertising. However, existing attribution methods rely heavily on the heuristic methods, e.g., Last-Click Mechanism (LCM) which always allocates the attribution to the platform with the latest report, lacking theoretical guarantees for attribution accuracy. In this work, we propose a novel theoretical model for the advertising attribution problem, in which we aim to design the optimal dominant strategy incentive compatible (DSIC) mechanisms and evaluate their performance. We first show that LCM is not DSIC and performs poorly in terms of accuracy and fairness. To address this limitation, we introduce the Peer-Validated Mechanism (PVM), a DSIC mechanism in which a platform's attribution depends solely on the reports of other platforms. We then examine the accuracy of PVM across both homogeneous and heterogeneous settings, and provide provable accuracy bounds for each case. Notably, we show that PVM is the optimal DSIC mechanism in the homogeneous setting. Finally, numerical experiments are conducted to show that PVM consistently outperforms LCM in terms of attribution accuracy and fairness.

With video games leading in entertainment revenues, optimizing game development workflows is critical to the industry’s long-term success. Recent advances in vision-language models (VLMs) hold significant potential to automate and enhance various aspects of game development—particularly video game quality assurance (QA), which remains one of the most labor-intensive processes with limited automation. To effectively measure VLM performance in video game QA tasks and evaluate their ability to handle real-world scenarios, there is a clear need for standardized benchmarks, as current ones fall short in addressing this domain. To bridge this gap, we introduce VideoGameQA-Bench - a comprehensive benchmark designed to encompass a wide range of game QA activities, including visual unit testing, visual regression testing, needle-in-a-haystack, glitch detection, and bug report generation for both images and videos.