NeurIPS 2025 论文列表

Recovering the dynamics from a few snapshots of a high-dimensional system is a challenging task in statistical physics and machine learning, with important applications in computational biology. Many algorithms have been developed to tackle this problem, based on frameworks such as optimal transport and the Schrödinger bridge. A notable recent framework is Regularized Unbalanced Optimal Transport (RUOT), which integrates both stochastic dynamics and unnormalized distributions. However, since many existing methods do not explicitly enforce optimality conditions, their solutions often struggle to satisfy the principle of least action and meet challenges to converge in a stable and reliable way. To address these issues, we propose Variational RUOT (Var-RUOT), a new framework to solve the RUOT problem. By incorporating the optimal necessary conditions for the RUOT problem into both the parameterization of the search space and the loss function design, Var-RUOT only needs to learn a scalar field to solve the RUOT problem and can search for solutions with lower action. We also examined the challenge of selecting a growth penalty function in the widely used Wasserstein-Fisher-Rao metric and proposed a solution that better aligns with biological priors in Var-RUOT. We validated the effectiveness of Var-RUOT on both simulated data and real single-cell datasets. Compared with existing algorithms, Var-RUOT can find solutions with lower action while exhibiting faster convergence and improved training stability. Our code is available at https://github.com/ZerooVector/VarRUOT.

Variational inference seeks the best approximation of a target distribution within a chosen family, where "best" means minimizing Kullback-Leibler divergence. When the approximation family is exponential, the optimal approximation satisfies a fixed-point equation. We introduce LSVI (Least Squares Variational Inference), a gradient-free, Monte Carlo-based scheme for the fixed-point recursion, where each iteration boils down to performing ordinary least squares regression on tempered log-target evaluations under the variational approximation. We show that LSVI is equivalent to biased stochastic natural gradient descent and use this to derive convergence rates with respect to the numbers of samples and iterations. When the approximation family is Gaussian, LSVI involves inverting the Fisher information matrix, whose size grows quadratically with dimension $d$. We exploit the regression formulation to eliminate the need for this inversion, yielding $O(d^3)$ complexity in the full-covariance case and $O(d)$ in the mean-field case. Finally, we numerically demonstrate LSVI’s performance on various tasks, including logistic regression, discrete variable selection, and Bayesian synthetic likelihood, showing competitive results with state-of-the-art methods, even when gradients are unavailable.

We prove that, given a mean-field location-scale variational family, black-box variational inference (BBVI) with the reparametrization gradient converges at a rate that is nearly independent of explicit dimension dependence. Specifically, for a $d$-dimensional strongly log-concave and log-smooth target, the number of iterations for BBVI with a sub-Gaussian family to obtain a solution $\epsilon$-close to the global optimum has a dimension dependence of $\mathrm{O}(\log d)$. This is a significant improvement over the $\mathrm{O}(d)$ dependence of full-rank location-scale families. For heavy-tailed families, we prove a weaker $\mathrm{O}(d^{2/k})$ dependence, where $k$ is the number of finite moments of the family. Additionally, if the Hessian of the target log-density is constant, the complexity is free of any explicit dimension dependence. We also prove that our bound on the gradient variance, which is key to our result, cannot be improved using only spectral bounds on the Hessian of the target log-density.

Advances in large-scale recording technologies now enable simultaneous measurements from multiple brain areas, offering new opportunities to study signal transmission across interacting components of neural circuits. However, neural responses exhibit substantial trial-to-trial variability, often driven by unobserved factors such as subtle changes in animal behavior or internal states. To prevent evolving background dynamics from contaminating identification of functional coupling, we developed a hybrid neural spike train model, GLM-Transformer, that incorporates flexible, deep latent variable models into a point process generalized linear model (GLM) having an interpretable component for cross-population interactions. A Transformer-based variational autoencoder captures nonstationary individual-neuron dynamics that vary across trials, while standard nonparametric regression GLM coupling terms provide estimates of directed interactions between neural populations. We incorporate a low-rank structure on population-to-population coupling effects to improve scalability. Across synthetic datasets and mechanistic simulations, GLM-Transformer recovers known coupling structure and remains robust to shared background fluctuations. When applied to the Allen Institute Visual Coding dataset, it identifies feedforward pathways consistent with established visual hierarchies. This work offers a step toward improved identification of neural population interactions, and contributes to ongoing efforts aimed at achieving interpretable results while harvesting the benefits of deep learning.

Variational inference (VI) is a popular approach in Bayesian inference, that looks for the best approximation of the posterior distribution within a parametric family, minimizing a loss that is typically the (reverse) Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence. In this paper, we focus on the following parametric family: mixtures of isotropic Gaussians (i.e., with diagonal covariance matrices proportional to the identity) and uniform weights. We develop a variational framework and provide efficient algorithms suited for this family. In contrast with mixtures of Gaussian with generic covariance matrices, this choice presents a balance between accurate approximations of multimodal Bayesian posteriors, while being memory and computationally efficient. Our algorithms implement gradient descent on the location of the mixture components (the modes of the Gaussians), and either (an entropic) Mirror or Bures descent on their variance parameters. We illustrate the performance of our algorithms on numerical experiments.

Inference in both brains and machines can be formalized by optimizing a shared objective: maximizing the evidence lower bound (ELBO) in machine learning, or minimizing variational free energy ($\mathcal{F}$) in neuroscience (ELBO = $-\mathcal{F}$). While this equivalence suggests a unifying framework, it leaves open how inference is implemented in neural systems. Here, we introduce FOND (*Free energy Online Natural-gradient Dynamics*), a framework that derives neural inference dynamics from three principles: (1) natural gradients on $\mathcal{F}$, (2) online belief updating, and (3) iterative refinement. We apply FOND to derive iP-VAE (*iterative Poisson variational autoencoder*), a recurrent spiking neural network that performs variational inference through membrane potential dynamics, replacing amortized encoders with iterative inference updates. Theoretically, iP-VAE yields several desirable features such as emergent normalization via lateral competition, and hardware-efficient integer spike count representations. Empirically, iP-VAE outperforms both standard VAEs and Gaussian-based predictive coding models in sparsity, reconstruction, and biological plausibility, and scales to complex color image datasets such as CelebA. iP-VAE also exhibits strong generalization to out-of-distribution inputs, exceeding hybrid iterative-amortized VAEs. These results demonstrate how deriving inference algorithms from first principles can yield concrete architectures that are simultaneously biologically plausible and empirically effective.

Neural networks make accurate predictions but often fail to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, especially when test-time covariates differ from those seen during training, as occurs with selection bias or shifts over time. To address this, we propose a Bayesian framework for uncertainty estimation that explicitly accounts for covariate shifts. Unlike conventional approaches that rely on fixed priors, a key idea of our method is an adaptive prior, conditioned on both training and new covariates. This prior naturally increases uncertainty for inputs that lie far from the training distribution in regions where predictive performance is likely to degrade. To efficiently approximate the resulting posterior predictive distribution, we employ amortized variational inference. Finally, we construct synthetic environments by drawing small bootstrap samples from the training data, simulating a range of plausible covariate shifts using only the original dataset. We evaluate our method on both synthetic and real-world data, demonstrating that it yields substantially improved uncertainty estimates under distribution shift compared to existing approaches.