NeurIPS 2025 论文列表

We consider the problem of validating whether a neural posterior estimate $q(\theta \mid x)$ is an accurate approximation to the true, unknown true posterior $p(\theta \mid x)$. Existing methods for evaluating the quality of an NPE estimate are largely derived from classifier-based tests or divergence measures, but these suffer from several practical drawbacks. As an alternative, we introduce the *Conditional Localization Test* (**CoLT**), a principled method designed to detect discrepancies between $p(\theta \mid x)$ and $q(\theta \mid x)$ across the full range of conditioning inputs. Rather than relying on exhaustive comparisons or density estimation at every $x$, CoLT learns a localization function that adaptively selects points $\theta_l(x)$ where the neural posterior $q$ deviates most strongly from the true posterior $p$ for that $x$. This approach is particularly advantageous in typical simulation-based inference settings, where only a single draw $\theta \sim p(\theta \mid x)$ from the true posterior is observed for each conditioning input, but where the neural posterior $q(\theta \mid x)$ can be sampled an arbitrary number of times. Our theoretical results establish necessary and sufficient conditions for assessing distributional equality across all $x$, offering both rigorous guarantees and practical scalability. Empirically, we demonstrate that CoLT not only performs better than existing methods at comparing $p$ and $q$, but also pinpoints regions of significant divergence, providing actionable insights for model refinement. These properties position CoLT as a state-of-the-art solution for validating neural posterior estimates.

Modeling boiling---an inherently chaotic, multiphase process central to energy and thermal systems---remains a significant challenge for neural PDE surrogates. Existing models require future input (e.g., bubble positions) during inference because they fail to learn nucleation from past states, limiting their ability to autonomously forecast boiling dynamics. They also fail to model flow boiling velocity fields, where sharp interface–momentum coupling demands long-range and directional inductive biases. We introduce Bubbleformer, a transformer-based spatiotemporal model that forecasts stable and long-range boiling dynamics including nucleation, interface evolution, and heat transfer without dependence on simulation data during inference. Bubbleformer integrates factorized axial attention, frequency-aware scaling, and conditions on thermophysical parameters to generalize across fluids, geometries, and operating conditions.To evaluate physical fidelity in chaotic systems, we propose interpretable physics-based metrics that evaluate heat flux consistency, interface geometry, and mass conservation. We also release BubbleML 2.0, a high-fidelity dataset that spans diverse working fluids (cryogens, refrigerants, dielectrics), boiling configurations (pool and flow boiling), flow regimes (bubbly, slug, annular), and boundary conditions. Bubbleformer sets new benchmark results in both prediction and forecasting of two-phase boiling flows.

To enhance the generalization ability of graph neural networks (GNNs) in learning and simulation physical dynamics, a series of equivariant GNNs have been developed to incorporate the symmetric inductive bias. However, the existing methods do not take into account the non-stationarity nature of physical dynamics, where the joint distribution changes over time. Moreover, previous approaches for modeling non-stationary time series typically involve normalizing the data, which disrupts the symmetric assumption inherent in physical dynamics. To model the non-stationary physical dynamics while preserving the symmetric inductive bias, we introduce a Non-Stationary Equivariant Graph Neural Network (NS-EGNN) to capture the non-stationarity in physical dynamics while preserving the symmetric property of the model. Specifically, NS-EGNN employs Fourier Transform on segments of physical dynamics to extract time-varying frequency information from the trajectories. It then uses the first and second-order differences to mitigate non-stationarity, followed by pooling for future predictions. Through capturing varying frequency characteristics and alleviate the linear and quadric trend in the raw physical dynamics, NS-EGNN better models the temporal dependencies in the physical dynamics. NS-EGNN has been applied on various types of physical dynamics, including molecular, motion and protein dynamics. In various scenario, NS-EGNN consistently surpasses the performance of existing state-of-the-art algorithms, underscoring its effectiveness. The implementation of NS-EGNN is available at https://github.com/MaojiWEN/NS-EGNN.