NeurIPS 2025 论文列表

We propose KOALA++, a scalable Kalman-based optimization algorithm that explicitly models structured gradient uncertainty in neural network training. Unlike second-order methods, which rely on expensive second order gradient calculation, our method directly estimates the parameter covariance matrix by recursively updating compact gradient covariance products. This design improves upon the original KOALA framework that assumed diagonal covariance by implicitly capturing richer uncertainty structure without storing the full covariance matrix and avoiding large matrix inversions. Across diverse tasks, including image classification and language modeling, KOALA++ achieves accuracy on par or better than state-of-the-art second-order optimizers while maintaining the efficiency of first-order methods.

Visual autoregressive modeling has recently demonstrated potential in image tasks by enabling coarse-to-fine, next-level prediction. Most indoor 3D occupancy prediction methods, however, continue to rely on dense voxel grids and convolution-heavy backbones, which incur high computational costs when applying such coarse-to-fine frameworks. In contrast, cost-efficient alternatives based on Gaussian representations—particularly in the context of multi-scale autoregression—remain underexplored. To bridge this gap, we propose DFGauss, a dynamic focused masking framework for multi-scale 3D Gaussian representation. Unlike conventional approaches that refine voxel volumes or 2D projections, DFGauss directly operates in the 3D Gaussian parameter space, progressively refining representations across resolutions under hierarchical supervision. Each finer-scale Gaussian is conditioned on its coarser-level counterpart, forming a scale-wise autoregressive process. To further enhance efficiency, we introduce an importance-guided refinement strategy that selectively propagates informative Gaussians across scales, enabling spatially adaptive detail modeling. Experiments on 3D occupancy benchmarks demonstrate that DFGauss achieves competitive performance, highlighting the promise of autoregressive modeling for scalable 3D occupancy prediction.

Text-to-Visualization (Text2VIS) enables users to create visualizations from natural language queries, making data insights more accessible. However, Text2VIS faces challenges in interpreting ambiguous queries, as users often express their visualization needs in imprecise language. To address this challenge, we introduce nBench 2.0, a new benchmark designed to evaluate Text2VIS systems in scenarios involving ambiguous queries. nvBench 2.0 includes 7,878 natural language queries and 24,076 corresponding visualizations, derived from 780 tables across 153 domains. It is built using a controlled ambiguity-injection pipeline that generates ambiguous queries through a reverse-generation workflow. By starting with unambiguous seed visualizations and selectively injecting ambiguities, the pipeline yields multiple valid interpretations for each query, with each ambiguous query traceable to its corresponding visualization through step-wise reasoning paths. We evaluate various Large Language Models (LLMs) on their ability to perform ambiguous Text2VIS tasks using nBench 2.0. We also propose Step-Text2Vis, an LLM-based model trained on nvBench 2.0, which enhances performance in ambiguous scenarios through step-wise preference optimization. Our results show that Step-Text2Vis outperforms all baselines, setting a new state-of-the-art for ambiguous Text2VIS tasks. Our source code and data are available at https://nvbench2.github.io/

The combination of linear transformations and nonlinear activation functions forms the foundation of most modern deep neural networks, enabling them to approximate highly complex functions. This paper explores the introduction of quadratic transformations to further increase the nonlinearity of the model, with the aim of enhancing the performance of existing architectures. To minimize the additional parameters and computational burden, we propose a lightweight quadratic enhancer that leverages matrix decomposition, weight sharing, and sparsification techniques. This approach introduces only a minimal and negligible increase in parameters and forward computation, while still yielding substantial improvements in model performance. We evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed method across three tasks: text classification, image classification, and fine-tuning large language models (LLMs). In all tasks, our approach demonstrates significant performance gains.

Adversarial input attacks can cause a significant shift of CLIP embeddings. This can affect the downstream robustness of models incorporating CLIP in the pipeline, such as text-to-image generative models or large vision language models. While some efforts have been done towards making the CLIP image encoders robust, the robustness of text encoders remains unexplored. In this work, we cover this gap in the literature. We propose LEAF: an efficient adversarial finetuning method for the text domain, with the ability to scale to large CLIP models. Our models significantly improve the zero-shot adversarial accuracy in the text domain, while maintaining the vision performance provided by robust image encoders. When combined with text-to-image diffusion models, we can improve the generation quality under adversarial noise. In multimodal retrieval tasks, LEAF improves the recall under adversarial noise over standard CLIP models. Finally, we show that robust text encoders facilitate better reconstruction of input text from its embedding via direct optimization. We open-source our code and models.

This work introduces a novel approach, Pairwise Epistemic Estimators (PairEpEsts), for epistemic uncertainty estimation in ensemble models for regression tasks using pairwise-distance estimators (PaiDEs). By utilizing the pairwise distances between model components, PaiDEs establish bounds on entropy. We leverage this capability to enhance the performance of Bayesian Active Learning by Disagreement (BALD). Notably, unlike sample-based Monte Carlo estimators, PairEpEsts can estimate epistemic uncertainty up to 100 times faster and demonstrate superior performance in higher dimensions. To validate our approach, we conducted a varied series of regression experiments on commonly used benchmarks: 1D sinusoidal data, *Pendulum*, *Hopper*, *Ant*, and *Humanoid*, demonstrating PairEpEsts’ advantage over baselines in high-dimensional regression active learning.

Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) are well suited to modelling noisy and/or irregularly-sampled time series, which are omnipresent in finance, physics, and machine learning applications. Traditional approaches require costly simulation of numerical solvers when sampling between arbitrary time points. We introduce Neural Stochastic Flows (NSFs) and their latent dynamic versions, which learns (latent) SDE transition laws directly using conditional normalising flows, with architectural constraints that preserve properties inherited from stochastic flow. This enables sampling between arbitrary states in a single step, providing up to two orders of magnitude speedup for distant time points. Experiments on synthetic SDE simulations and real-world tracking and video data demonstrate that NSF maintains distributional accuracy comparable to numerical approaches while dramatically reducing computation for arbitrary time-point sampling, enabling applications where numerical solvers remain prohibitively expensive.

Training deep learning models for point cloud prediction tasks such as shape completion and generation depends critically on loss functions that measure discrepancies between predicted and ground-truth point sets. Commonly used functions such as Chamfer Distance (CD), HyperCD, InfoCD and Density-aware CD rely on nearest-neighbor assignments, which often induce many-to-one correspondences, leading to point congestion in dense regions and poor coverage in sparse regions. These losses also involve non-differentiable operations due to index selection, which may affect gradient-based optimization. Earth Mover Distance (EMD) enforces one-to-one correspondences and captures structural similarity more effectively, but its cubic computational complexity limits its practical use. We propose the Adaptive Probabilistic Matching Loss (APML), a fully differentiable approximation of one-to-one matching that leverages Sinkhorn iterations on a temperature-scaled similarity matrix derived from pairwise distances. We analytically compute the temperature to guarantee a minimum assignment probability, eliminating manual tuning. APML achieves near-quadratic runtime, comparable to Chamfer-based losses, and avoids non-differentiable operations. When integrated into state-of-the-art architectures (PoinTr, PCN, FoldingNet) on ShapeNet benchmarks and on a spatio‑temporal Transformer (CSI2PC) that generates 3‑D human point clouds from WiFi‑CSI measurements, APM loss yields faster convergence, superior spatial distribution, especially in low-density regions, and improved or on-par quantitative performance without additional hyperparameter search. The code is available at: https://github.com/apm-loss/apml.

We study the problem of estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) in adaptive experiments where treatment can only be encouraged—rather than directly assigned—via a binary instrumental variable. Building on semiparametric efficiency theory, we derive the efficiency bound for ATE estimation under arbitrary, history-dependent instrument-assignment policies, and show it is minimized by a variance-aware allocation rule that balances outcome noise and compliance variability. Leveraging this insight, we introduce AMRIV—an **A**daptive, **M**ultiply-**R**obust estimator for **I**nstrumental-**V**ariable settings with variance-optimal assignment. AMRIV pairs (i) an online policy that adaptively approximates the optimal allocation with (ii) a sequential, influence-function–based estimator that attains the semiparametric efficiency bound while retaining multiply-robust consistency. We establish asymptotic normality, explicit convergence rates, and anytime-valid asymptotic confidence sequences that enable sequential inference. Finally, we demonstrate the practical effectiveness of our approach through empirical studies, showing that adaptive instrument assignment, when combined with the AMRIV estimator, yields improved efficiency and robustness compared to existing baselines.

The widespread adoption of Retrieval-Augmented Image Generation (RAIG) has raised significant concerns about the unauthorized use of private image datasets. While these systems have shown remarkable capabilities in enhancing generation quality through reference images, protecting visual datasets from unauthorized use in such systems remains a challenging problem. Traditional digital watermarking approaches face limitations in RAIG systems, as the complex feature extraction and recombination processes fail to preserve watermark signals during generation. To address these challenges, we propose ImageSentinel, a novel framework for protecting visual datasets in RAIG. Our framework synthesizes sentinel images that maintain visual consistency with the original dataset. These sentinels enable protection verification through randomly generated character sequences that serve as retrieval keys. To ensure seamless integration, we leverage vision-language models to generate the sentinel images. Experimental results demonstrate that ImageSentinel effectively detects unauthorized dataset usage while preserving generation quality for authorized applications.

Latent variables (LVs) play a crucial role in encoder-decoder models by enabling effective data compression, prediction, and generation. Although their theoretical properties, such as generalization, have been extensively studied in supervised learning, similar analyses for unsupervised models such as variational autoencoders (VAEs) remain insufficiently underexplored. In this work, we extend information-theoretic generalization analysis to vector-quantized (VQ) VAEs with discrete latent spaces, introducing a novel data-dependent prior to rigorously analyze the relationship among LVs, generalization, and data generation. We derive a novel generalization error bound of the reconstruction loss of VQ-VAEs, which depends solely on the complexity of LVs and the encoder, independent of the decoder. Additionally, we provide the upper bound of the 2-Wasserstein distance between the distributions of the true data and the generated data, explaining how the regularization of the LVs contributes to the data generation performance.

In recommendation systems, implicit feedback data can be automatically recorded and is more common than explicit feedback data. However, implicit feedback poses two challenges for relevance prediction, namely (a) positive-unlabeled (PU): negative feedback does not necessarily imply low relevance and (b) missing not at random (MNAR): items that are popular or frequently recommended tend to receive more clicks than other items, even if the user does not have a significant interest in them. Existing methods either overlook the MNAR issue or fail to account for the inherent mechanism of the PU issue. As a result, they may lead to inaccurate relevance predictions or inflated biases and variances. In this paper, we formulate the implicit feedback problem as a counterfactual estimation problem with missing treatment variables. Prediction of the relevance in implicit feedback is equivalent to answering the counterfactual question that ``whether a user would click a specific item if exposed to it?". To solve the counterfactual question, we propose the Counterfactual Implicit Feedback (Counter-IF) prediction approach that divides the user-item pairs into four disjoint groups, namely definitely positive (DP), highly exposed (HE), highly unexposed (HU), and unknown (UN) groups. Specifically, Counter-IF first performs missing treatment imputation with different confidence levels from raw implicit feedback, then estimates the counterfactual outcomes via causal representation learning that combines pointwise loss and pairwise loss based on the user-item pairs stratification. Theoretically the generalization bound of the learned model is derived. Extensive experiments are conducted on publicly available datasets to demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. The code is available at https://github.com/zhouchuanCN/NeurIPS25-Counter-IF.

Recently, optimization on the Riemannian manifold have provided valuable insights to the optimization community. In this regard, extending these methods to to the Wasserstein space is of particular interest, since optimization on Wasserstein space is closely connected to practical sampling processes. Generally, the standard (continuous) optimization method on Wasserstein space is Riemannian gradient flow (i.e., Langevin dynamics when minimizing KL divergence). In this paper, we aim to enrich the family of continuous optimization methods in the Wasserstein space, by extending the gradient flow on it into the stochastic gradient descent (SGD) flow and stochastic variance reduction gradient (SVRG) flow. By leveraging the property of Wasserstein space, we construct stochastic differential equations (SDEs) to approximate the corresponding discrete Euclidean dynamics of the desired Riemannian stochastic methods. Then, we obtain the flows in Wasserstein space by Fokker-Planck equation. Finally, we establish convergence rates of the proposed stochastic flows, which align with those known in the Euclidean setting.

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have significantly enhanced text generation capabilities, yet evaluating their performance in generative writing remains a challenge. Existing benchmarks primarily focus on generic text generation or limited in writing tasks, failing to capture the diverse requirements of high-quality written contents across various domains. To bridge this gap, we present WritingBench, a comprehensive benchmark designed to evaluate LLMs across 6 core writing domains and 100 subdomains. We further propose a query-dependent evaluation framework that empowers LLMs to dynamically generate instance-specific assessment criteria. This framework is complemented by a fine-tuned critic model for criteria-aware scoring, enabling evaluations in style, format and length. The framework's validity is further demonstrated by its data curation capability, which enables a 7B-parameter model to outperform the performance of GPT-4o in writing. We open-source the benchmark, along with evaluation tools and modular framework components, to advance the development of LLMs in writing.

The relative similarity testing aims to determine which of the distributions, $P$ or $Q$, is closer to an anchor distribution $U$. Existing kernel-based approaches often test the relative similarity with a fixed kernel in a manually specified alternative hypothesis, e.g., $Q$ is closer to $U$ than $P$. Although kernel selection is known to be important to kernel-based testing methods, the manually specified hypothesis poses a significant challenge for kernel selection in relative similarity testing: Once the hypothesis is specified first, we can always find a kernel such that the hypothesis is rejected. This challenge makes relative similarity testing ill-defined when we want to select a good kernel after the hypothesis is specified. In this paper, we cope with this challenge via learning a proper hypothesis and a kernel simultaneously, instead of learning a kernel after manually specifying the hypothesis. We propose an anchor-based maximum discrepancy (AMD), which defines the relative similarity as the maximum discrepancy between the distances of $(U, P)$ and $(U, Q)$ in a space of deep kernels. Based on AMD, our testing incorporates two phases. In Phase I, we estimate the AMD over the deep kernel space and infer the potential hypothesis. In Phase II, we assess the statistical significance of the potential hypothesis, where we propose a unified testing framework to derive thresholds for tests over different possible hypotheses from Phase I. Lastly, we validate our method theoretically and demonstrate its effectiveness via extensive experiments on benchmark datasets. Codes are publicly available at: https://github.com/zhijianzhouml/AMD.

Large language models (LLMs) deliver strong performance but are difficult to deploy due to high memory and compute costs. While pruning reduces these demands, most methods ignore activation sparsity observed at runtime. We reinterpret activation sparsity as dynamic structured weight sparsity and propose DuoGPT, a unified framework that constructs dual-sparse (spMspV) workloads by combining unstructured weight pruning with activation sparsity. To preserve accuracy, we extend the Optimal Brain Compression (OBC) framework with activation-aware calibration and introduce output residuals from the dense model as correction terms. We further optimize the solution for efficient GPU execution, enabling scalability to billion-parameter LLMs. Evaluations on LLaMA-2 and LLaMA-3 show that DuoGPT outperforms state-of-the-art structured pruning methods by up to 9.17\% accuracy at an iso-speedup of 1.39$\times$ compared to the baseline dense model. Code is available at GitHub.

The canonical approach in generative modeling is to split model fitting into two blocks: define first how to sample noise (e.g. Gaussian) and choose next what to do with it (e.g. using a single map or flows). We explore in this work an alternative route that ties sampling and mapping. We find inspiration in moment measures, a result that states that for any measure $\rho$, there exists a unique convex potential $u$ such that $\rho=\nabla u \sharp e^{-u}$. While this does seem to tie effectively sampling (from log-concave distribution $e^{-u}$) and action (pushing particles through $\nabla u$), we observe on simple examples (e.g., Gaussians or 1D distributions) that this choice is ill-suited for practical tasks. We study an alternative factorization, where $\rho$ is factorized as $\nabla w^* \sharp e^{-w}$, where $w^\ast$ is the convex conjugate of a convex potential $w$. We call this approach conjugate moment measures, and show far more intuitive results on these examples. Because $\nabla w^*$ is the Monge map between the log-concave distribution $e^{-w}$ and $\rho$, we rely on optimal transport solvers to propose an algorithm to recover $w$ from samples of $\rho$, and parameterize $w$ as an input-convex neural network. We also address the common sampling scenario in which the density of $\rho$ is known only up to a normalizing constant, and propose an algorithm to learn $w$ in this setting.

Motion simulation, prediction and planning are foundational tasks in autonomous driving, each essential for modeling and reasoning about dynamic traffic scenarios. While often addressed in isolation due to their differing objectives, such as generating diverse motion states or estimating optimal trajectories, these tasks inherently depend on shared capabilities: understanding multi-agent interactions, modeling motion behaviors, and reasoning over temporal and spatial dynamics. Despite this underlying commonality, existing approaches typically adopt specialized model designs, which hinders cross-task generalization and system scalability. More critically, this separation overlooks the potential mutual benefits among tasks. Motivated by these observations, we propose **UniMotion**, a unified motion framework that captures shared structures across motion tasks while accommodating their individual requirements. Built on a decoder-only Transformer architecture, UniMotion employs dedicated interaction modes and tailored training strategies to simultaneously support these motion tasks. This unified design not only enables joint optimization and representation sharing but also allows for targeted fine-tuning to specialize in individual tasks when needed. Extensive experiments on the Waymo Open Motion Dataset (WOMD) demonstrate that joint training leads to robust generalization and effective task integration. With further fine-tuning, UniMotion achieves state-of-the-art performance across a range of motion tasks, establishing it as a versatile and scalable solution for autonomous driving.

When applicants get rejected by a high-stakes algorithmic decision system, recourse explanations provide actionable suggestions for applicants on how to change their input features to get a positive evaluation. A crucial yet overlooked phenomenon is that recourse explanations are *performative*: When many applicants act according to their recommendations, their collective behavior may shift the data distribution and, once the model is refitted, also the decision boundary. Consequently, the recourse algorithm may render its own recommendations *invalid*, such that applicants who make the effort of implementing their recommendations may be rejected again when they reapply. In this work, we formally characterize the conditions under which recourse explanations remain valid under their own performative effects. In particular, we prove that recourse actions may become invalid if they are influenced by or if they intervene on non-causal variables. Based on this analysis, we caution against the use of standard counterfactual explanations and causal recourse methods, and instead advocate for recourse methods that recommend actions exclusively on causal variables.