NeurIPS 2024 论文列表

Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems

录用类型

4,562篇论文

按官方录用论文列表统计,可能与会议公布的数字略有出入。

  • Oral
    721.6%
  • Spotlight
    3828.4%
  • Poster
    4,06489.1%
  • 其他 / 未标注
    441.0%

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Nonparametric Classification on Low Dimensional Manifolds using Overparameterized Convolutional Residual Networks

Zixuan Zhang, Kaiqi Zhang, Minshuo Chen, Yuma Takeda, Mengdi Wang, Tuo Zhao, Yu-Xiang Wang

展开摘要

Convolutional residual neural networks (ConvResNets), though overparametersized, can achieve remarkable prediction performance in practice, which cannot be well explained by conventional wisdom. To bridge this gap, we study the performance of ConvResNeXts trained with weight decay, which cover ConvResNets as a special case, from the perspective of nonparametric classification. Our analysis allows for infinitely many building blocks in ConvResNeXts, and shows that weight decay implicitly enforces sparsity on these blocks. Specifically, we consider a smooth target function supported on a low-dimensional manifold, then prove that ConvResNeXts can adapt to the function smoothness and low-dimensional structures and efficiently learn the function without suffering from the curse of dimensionality. Our findings partially justify the advantage of overparameterized ConvResNeXts over conventional machine learning models.

Poster
Brain-JEPA: Brain Dynamics Foundation Model with Gradient Positioning and Spatiotemporal Masking

Zijian Dong, Li Ruilin, Yilei Wu, Thuan Tinh Nguyen, Joanna Su Xian Chong, Fang Ji, Nathanael Ren Jie Tong, Christopher Li Hsian Chen, Juan Helen Zhou

展开摘要

We introduce *Brain-JEPA*, a brain dynamics foundation model with the Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture (JEPA). This pioneering model achieves state-of-the-art performance in demographic prediction, disease diagnosis/prognosis, and trait prediction through fine-tuning. Furthermore, it excels in off-the-shelf evaluations (e.g., linear probing) and demonstrates superior generalizability across different ethnic groups, surpassing the previous large model for brain activity significantly. Brain-JEPA incorporates two innovative techniques: **Brain Gradient Positioning** and **Spatiotemporal Masking**. Brain Gradient Positioning introduces a functional coordinate system for brain functional parcellation, enhancing the positional encoding of different Regions of Interest (ROIs). Spatiotemporal Masking, tailored to the unique characteristics of fMRI data, addresses the challenge of heterogeneous time-series patches. These methodologies enhance model performance and advance our understanding of the neural circuits underlying cognition. Overall, Brain-JEPA is paving the way to address pivotal questions of building brain functional coordinate system and masking brain activity at the AI-neuroscience interface, and setting a potentially new paradigm in brain activity analysis through downstream adaptation.

Spotlight
Diffusion4D: Fast Spatial-temporal Consistent 4D generation via Video Diffusion Models

HANWEN LIANG, Yuyang Yin, Dejia Xu, hanxue liang, Zhangyang Wang, Konstantinos N. Plataniotis, Yao Zhao, Yunchao Wei

展开摘要

The availability of large-scale multimodal datasets and advancements in diffusion models have significantly accelerated progress in 4D content generation. Most prior approaches rely on multiple images or video diffusion models, utilizing score distillation sampling for optimization or generating pseudo novel views for direct supervision. However, these methods are hindered by slow optimization speeds and multi-view inconsistency issues. Spatial and temporal consistency in 4D geometry has been extensively explored respectively in 3D-aware diffusion models and traditional monocular video diffusion models. Building on this foundation, we propose a strategy to migrate the temporal consistency in video diffusion models to the spatial-temporal consistency required for 4D generation. Specifically, we present a novel framework, \textbf{Diffusion4D}, for efficient and scalable 4D content generation. Leveraging a meticulously curated dynamic 3D dataset, we develop a 4D-aware video diffusion model capable of synthesizing orbital views of dynamic 3D assets. To control the dynamic strength of these assets, we introduce a 3D-to-4D motion magnitude metric as guidance. Additionally, we propose a novel motion magnitude reconstruction loss and 3D-aware classifier-free guidance to refine the learning and generation of motion dynamics. After obtaining orbital views of the 4D asset, we perform explicit 4D construction with Gaussian splatting in a coarse-to-fine manner. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method surpasses prior state-of-the-art techniques in terms of generation efficiency and 4D geometry consistency across various prompt modalities.

Poster
Visual Autoregressive Modeling: Scalable Image Generation via Next-Scale Prediction

Keyu Tian, Yi Jiang, Zehuan Yuan, BINGYUE PENG, Liwei Wang

展开摘要

We present Visual AutoRegressive modeling (VAR), a new generation paradigm that redefines the autoregressive learning on images as coarse-to-fine "next-scale prediction" or "next-resolution prediction", diverging from the standard raster-scan "next-token prediction". This simple, intuitive methodology allows autoregressive (AR) transformers to learn visual distributions fast and generalize well: VAR, for the first time, makes GPT-style AR models surpass diffusion transformers in image generation. On ImageNet 256x256 benchmark, VAR significantly improve AR baseline by improving Frechet inception distance (FID) from 18.65 to 1.73, inception score (IS) from 80.4 to 350.2, with around 20x faster inference speed. It is also empirically verified that VAR outperforms the Diffusion Transformer (DiT) in multiple dimensions including image quality, inference speed, data efficiency, and scalability. Scaling up VAR models exhibits clear power-law scaling laws similar to those observed in LLMs, with linear correlation coefficients near -0.998 as solid evidence. VAR further showcases zero-shot generalization ability in downstream tasks including image in-painting, out-painting, and editing. These results suggest VAR has initially emulated the two important properties of LLMs: Scaling Laws and zero-shot task generalization. We have released all models and codes to promote the exploration of AR/VAR models for visual generation and unified learning.

Oral
Boosting Vision-Language Models with Transduction

Maxime Zanella, Benoît Gérin, Ismail Ben Ayed

展开摘要

Transduction is a powerful paradigm that leverages the structure of unlabeled data to boost predictive accuracy. We present TransCLIP, a novel and computationally efficient transductive approach designed for Vision-Language Models (VLMs). TransCLIP is applicable as a plug-and-play module on top of popular inductive zero- and few-shot models, consistently improving their performances. Our new objective function can be viewed as a regularized maximum-likelihood estimation, constrained by a KL divergence penalty that integrates the text-encoder knowledge and guides the transductive learning process. We further derive an iterative Block Majorize-Minimize (BMM) procedure for optimizing our objective, with guaranteed convergence and decoupled sample-assignment updates, yielding computationally efficient transduction for large-scale datasets. We report comprehensive evaluations, comparisons, and ablation studies that demonstrate: (i) Transduction can greatly enhance the generalization capabilities of inductive pretrained zero- and few-shot VLMs; (ii) TransCLIP substantially outperforms standard transductive few-shot learning methods relying solely on vision features, notably due to the KL-based language constraint.

Spotlight
In-Context Learning State Vector with Inner and Momentum Optimization

Dongfang Li, zhenyu liu, Xinshuo Hu, Zetian Sun, Baotian Hu, Min Zhang

展开摘要

Large Language Models (LLMs) have exhibited an impressive ability to perform In-Context Learning (ICL) from only a few examples. Recent works have indicated that the functions learned by ICL can be represented through compressed vectors derived from the transformer. However, the working mechanisms and optimization of these vectors are yet to be thoroughly explored. In this paper, we address this gap by presenting a comprehensive analysis of these compressed vectors, drawing parallels to the parameters trained with gradient descent, and introducing the concept of state vector. Inspired by the works on model soup and momentum-based gradient descent, we propose inner and momentum optimization methods that are applied to refine the state vector progressively as test-time adaptation. Moreover, we simulate state vector aggregation in the multiple example setting, where demonstrations comprising numerous examples are usually too lengthy for regular ICL, and further propose a divide-and-conquer aggregation method to address this challenge. We conduct extensive experiments using Llama-2 and GPT-J in both zero-shot setting and few-shot setting. The experimental results show that our optimization method effectively enhances the state vector and achieves the state-of-the-art performance on diverse tasks.

Poster
PIVOT-R: Primitive-Driven Waypoint-Aware World Model for Robotic Manipulation

Kaidong Zhang, Pengzhen Ren, Bingqian Lin, Junfan Lin, Shikui Ma, Hang Xu, Xiaodan Liang

展开摘要

Language-guided robotic manipulation is a challenging task that requires an embodied agent to follow abstract user instructions to accomplish various complex manipulation tasks. Previous work generally maps instructions and visual perceptions directly to low-level executable actions, neglecting the modeling of critical waypoints (e.g., key states of “close to/grab/move up” in action trajectories) in manipulation tasks. To address this issue, we propose a PImitive-driVen waypOinT-aware world model for Robotic manipulation (PIVOT-R) that focuses solely on the prediction of task-relevant waypoints. Specifically, PIVOT-R consists of a Waypoint-aware World Model (WAWM) and a lightweight action prediction module. The former performs primitive action parsing and primitive-driven waypoint prediction, while the latter focuses on decoding low-level actions. Additionally, we also design an asynchronous hierarchical executor (AHE) for PIVOT-R, which can use different execution frequencies for different modules of the model, thereby helping the model reduce computational redundancy and improve model execution efficiency. Our PIVOT-R outperforms state-of-the-art (SoTA) open-source models on the SeaWave benchmark, achieving an average relative improvement of 19.45% across four levels of instruction tasks. Moreover, compared to the synchronously executed PIVOT-R, the execution efficiency of PIVOT-R with AHE is increased by 28-fold, with only a 2.9% drop in performance. These results provide compelling evidence that our PIVOT-R can significantly improve both the performance and efficiency of robotic manipulation.

Poster
SARAD: Spatial Association-Aware Anomaly Detection and Diagnosis for Multivariate Time Series

Zhihao Dai, Ligang He, Shuanghua Yang, Matthew Leeke

展开摘要

Anomaly detection in time series data is fundamental to the design, deployment, and evaluation of industrial control systems. Temporal modeling has been the natural focus of anomaly detection approaches for time series data. However, the focus on temporal modeling can obscure or dilute the spatial information that can be used to capture complex interactions in multivariate time series. In this paper, we propose SARAD, an approach that leverages spatial information beyond data autoencoding errors to improve the detection and diagnosis of anomalies. SARAD trains a Transformer to learn the spatial associations, the pairwise inter-feature relationships which ubiquitously characterize such feedback-controlled systems. As new associations form and old ones dissolve, SARAD applies subseries division to capture their changes over time. Anomalies exhibit association descending patterns, a key phenomenon we exclusively observe and attribute to the disruptive nature of anomalies detaching anomalous features from others. To exploit the phenomenon and yet dismiss non-anomalous descent, SARAD performs anomaly detection via autoencoding in the association space. We present experimental results to demonstrate that SARAD achieves state-of-the-art performance, providing robust anomaly detection and a nuanced understanding of anomalous events.

Poster
Metric Space Magnitude for Evaluating the Diversity of Latent Representations

Katharina Limbeck, Rayna Andreeva, Rik Sarkar, Bastian Rieck

展开摘要

The *magnitude* of a metric space is a novel invariant that provides a measure of the 'effective size' of a space across multiple scales, while also capturing numerous geometrical properties, such as curvature, density, or entropy. We develop a family of magnitude-based measures of the intrinsic diversity of latent representations, formalising a novel notion of dissimilarity between magnitude functions of finite metric spaces. Our measures are provably stable under perturbations of the data, can be efficiently calculated, and enable a rigorous multi-scale characterisation and comparison of latent representations. We show their utility and superior performance across different domains and tasks, including the automated estimation of diversity, the detection of mode collapse, and the evaluation of generative models for text, image, and graph data.

Poster
Selective Generation for Controllable Language Models

Minjae Lee, Kyungmin Kim, Taesoo Kim, Sangdon Park

展开摘要

Trustworthiness of generative language models (GLMs) is crucial in their deployment to critical decision making systems. Hence, certified risk control methods such as selective prediction and conformal prediction have been applied to mitigating the hallucination problem in various supervised downstream tasks. However, the lack of appropriate correctness metric hinders applying such principled methods to language generation tasks. In this paper, we circumvent this problem by leveraging the concept of textual entailment to evaluate the correctness of the generated sequence, and propose two selective generation algorithms which control the false discovery rate with respect to the textual entailment relation (FDR-E) with a theoretical guarantee: $\texttt{SGen}^{\texttt{Sup}}$ and $\texttt{SGen}^{\texttt{Semi}}$. $\texttt{SGen}^{\texttt{Sup}}$, a direct modification of the selective prediction, is a supervised learning algorithm which exploits entailment-labeled data, annotated by humans. Since human annotation is costly, we further propose a semi-supervised version, $\texttt{SGen}^{\texttt{Semi}}$, which fully utilizes the unlabeled data by pseudo-labeling, leveraging an entailment set function learned via conformal prediction. Furthermore, $\texttt{SGen}^{\texttt{Semi}}$ enables to use more general class of selection functions, neuro-selection functions, and provides users with an optimal selection function class given multiple candidates. Finally, we demonstrate the efficacy of the $\texttt{SGen}$ family in achieving a desired FDR-E level with comparable selection efficiency to those from baselines on both open and closed source GLMs. Code and datasets are provided at https://github.com/ml-postech/selective-generation.

Spotlight
Learning to Understand: Identifying Interactions via the Möbius Transform

Justin Singh Kang, Yigit Efe Erginbas, Landon Butler, Ramtin Pedarsani, Kannan Ramchandran

展开摘要

One of the key challenges in machine learning is to find interpretable representations of learned functions. The Möbius transform is essential for this purpose, as its coefficients correspond to unique *importance scores* for *sets of input variables*. This transform is closely related to widely used game-theoretic notions of importance like the *Shapley* and *Bhanzaf value*, but it also captures crucial higher-order interactions. Although computing the Möbius Transform of a function with $n$ inputs involves $2^n$ coefficients, it becomes tractable when the function is *sparse* and of *low-degree* as we show is the case for many real-world functions. Under these conditions, the complexity of the transform computation is significantly reduced. When there are $K$ non-zero coefficients, our algorithm recovers the Möbius transform in $O(Kn)$ samples and $O(Kn^2)$ time asymptotically under certain assumptions, the first non-adaptive algorithm to do so. We also uncover a surprising connection between group testing and the Möbius transform. For functions where all interactions involve at most $t$ inputs, we use group testing results to compute the Möbius transform with $O(Kt\log n)$ sample complexity and $O(K\mathrm{poly}(n))$ time. A robust version of this algorithm withstands noise and maintains this complexity. This marks the first $n$ sub-linear query complexity, noise-tolerant algorithm for the Möbius transform. While our algorithms are conceptualized in an idealized setting, they indicate that the Möbius transform is a potent tool for interpreting deep learning models.

Poster
CigTime: Corrective Instruction Generation Through Inverse Motion Editing

Qihang Fang, Chengcheng Tang, Bugra Tekin, Yanchao Yang

展开摘要

Recent advancements in models linking natural language with human motions have shown significant promise in motion generation and editing based on instructional text. Motivated by applications in sports coaching and motor skill learning, we investigate the inverse problem: generating corrective instructional text, leveraging motion editing and generation models. We introduce a novel approach that, given a user’s current motion (source) and the desired motion (target), generates text instructions to guide the user towards achieving the target motion. We leverage large language models to generate corrective texts and utilize existing motion generation and editing frameworks to compile datasets of triplets (source motion, target motion, and corrective text). Using this data, we propose a new motion-language model for generating corrective instructions. We present both qualitative and quantitative results across a diverse range of applications that largely improve upon baselines. Our approach demonstrates its effectiveness in instructional scenarios, offering text-based guidance to correct and enhance user performance.

Poster
Federated Fine-tuning of Large Language Models under Heterogeneous Tasks and Client Resources

Jiamu Bai, Daoyuan Chen, Bingchen Qian, Liuyi Yao, Yaliang Li

展开摘要

Federated Learning (FL) has recently been applied to the parameter-efficient fine-tuning of Large Language Models (LLMs). While promising, it raises significant challenges due to the heterogeneous resources and data distributions of clients.This study introduces FlexLoRA, a simple yet effective aggregation scheme for LLM fine-tuning, which mitigates the "buckets effect" in traditional FL that restricts the potential of clients with ample resources by tying them to the capabilities of the least-resourced participants. FlexLoRA allows for dynamic adjustment of local LoRA ranks, fostering the development of a global model imbued with broader, less task-specific knowledge. By synthesizing a full-size LoRA weight from individual client contributions and employing Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) for weight redistribution, FlexLoRA fully leverages heterogeneous client resources. Involving thousands of clients performing heterogeneous NLP tasks and client resources, our experiments validate the efficacy of FlexLoRA, with the federated global model achieving consistently better improvement over SOTA FL methods in downstream NLP task performance across various heterogeneous distributions. FlexLoRA's practicality is further underscored by our theoretical analysis and its seamless integration with existing LoRA-based FL methods, offering a path toward cross-device, privacy-preserving federated tuning for LLMs.

Poster
Improving the Worst-Case Bidirectional Communication Complexity for Nonconvex Distributed Optimization under Function Similarity

Kaja Gruntkowska, Alexander Tyurin, Peter Richtárik

展开摘要

Effective communication between the server and workers plays a key role in distributed optimization. In this paper, we focus on optimizing communication, uncovering inefficiencies in prevalent downlink compression approaches. Considering first the pure setup where the uplink communication costs are negligible, we introduce MARINA-P, a novel method for downlink compression, employing a collection of correlated compressors. Theoretical analysis demonstrates that MARINA-P with permutation compressors can achieve a server-to-worker communication complexity improving with the number of workers, thus being provably superior to existing algorithms. We further show that MARINA-P can serve as a starting point for extensions such as methods supporting bidirectional compression: we introduce M3, a method combining MARINA-P with uplink compression and a momentum step, achieving bidirectional compression with provable improvements in total communication complexity as the number of workers increases. Theoretical findings align closely with empirical experiments, underscoring the efficiency of the proposed algorithms.

Spotlight
MimicTalk: Mimicking a personalized and expressive 3D talking face in minutes

Zhenhui Ye, Tianyun Zhong, Yi Ren, Ziyue Jiang, Jiawei Huang, Rongjie Huang, Jinglin Liu, Jinzheng He, Chen Zhang, Zehan Wang, Xize Cheng, Xiang Yin, Zhou Zhao

展开摘要

Talking face generation (TFG) aims to animate a target identity's face to create realistic talking videos. Personalized TFG is a variant that emphasizes the perceptual identity similarity of the synthesized result (from the perspective of appearance and talking style). While previous works typically solve this problem by learning an individual neural radiance field (NeRF) for each identity to implicitly store its static and dynamic information, we find it inefficient and non-generalized due to the per-identity-per-training framework and the limited training data. To this end, we propose MimicTalk, the first attempt that exploits the rich knowledge from a NeRF-based person-agnostic generic model for improving the efficiency and robustness of personalized TFG. To be specific, (1) we first come up with a person-agnostic 3D TFG model as the base model and propose to adapt it into a specific identity; (2) we propose a static-dynamic-hybrid adaptation pipeline to help the model learn the personalized static appearance and facial dynamic features; (3) To generate the facial motion of the personalized talking style, we propose an in-context stylized audio-to-motion model that mimics the implicit talking style provided in the reference video without information loss by an explicit style representation. The adaptation process to an unseen identity can be performed in 15 minutes, which is 47 times faster than previous person-dependent methods. Experiments show that our MimicTalk surpasses previous baselines regarding video quality, efficiency, and expressiveness. Video samples are available at https://mimictalk.github.io .

Poster
Conditional Synthesis of 3D Molecules with Time Correction Sampler

Hojung Jung, Youngrok Park, Laura Schmid, Jaehyeong Jo, Dongkyu Lee, Bongsang Kim, Se-Young Yun, Jinwoo Shin

展开摘要

Diffusion models have demonstrated remarkable success in various domains, including molecular generation. However, conditional molecular generation remains a fundamental challenge due to an intrinsic trade-off between targeting specific chemical properties and generating meaningful samples from the data distribution. In this work, we present Time-Aware Conditional Synthesis (TACS), a novel approach to conditional generation on diffusion models. It integrates adaptively controlled plug-and-play "online" guidance into a diffusion model, driving samples toward the desired properties while maintaining validity and stability. A key component of our algorithm is our new type of diffusion sampler, Time Correction Sampler (TCS), which is used to control guidance and ensure that the generated molecules remain on the correct manifold at each reverse step of the diffusion process at the same time. Our proposed method demonstrates significant performance in conditional 3D molecular generation and offers a promising approach towards inverse molecular design, potentially facilitating advancements in drug discovery, materials science, and other related fields.

Poster
Test-Time Adaptation Induces Stronger Accuracy and Agreement-on-the-Line

Eungyeup Kim, Mingjie Sun, Christina Baek, Aditi Raghunathan, J Zico Kolter

展开摘要

Recently, Miller et al. (2021) and Baek et al. (2022) empirically demonstrated strong linear correlations between in-distribution (ID) versus out-of-distribution (OOD) accuracy and agreement. These trends, coined accuracy-on-the-line (ACL) and agreement-on-the-line (AGL), enable OOD model selection and performance estimation without labeled data. However, these phenomena also break for certain shifts, such as CIFAR10-C Gaussian Noise, posing a critical bottleneck. In this paper, we make a key finding that recent test-time adaptation (TTA) methods not only improve OOD performance, but it drastically strengthen the ACL and AGL trends in models, even in shifts where models showed very weak correlations before. To analyze this, we revisit the theoretical conditions from Miller et al. (2021) that outline the types of distribution shifts needed for perfect ACL in linear models. Surprisingly, these conditions are satisfied after applying TTA to deep models in the penultimate feature embedding space. In particular, TTA causes the data distribution to collapse complex shifts into those can be expressed by a singular "scaling" variable in the feature space. Our results show that by combining TTA with AGL-based estimation methods, we can estimate the OOD performance of models with high precision for a broader set of distribution shifts. This lends us a simple system for selecting the best hyperparameters and adaptation strategy without any OOD labeled data. Code is available at https://github.com/EungyeupKim/TTALine.

Poster
In-N-Out: Lifting 2D Diffusion Prior for 3D Object Removal via Tuning-Free Latents Alignment

Dongting Hu, Huan Fu, Jiaxian Guo, Liuhua Peng, Tingjin Chu, Feng Liu, Tongliang Liu, Mingming Gong

展开摘要

Neural representations for 3D scenes have made substantial advancements recently, yet object removal remains a challenging yet practical issue, due to the absence of multi-view supervision over occluded areas. Diffusion Models (DMs), trained on extensive 2D images, show diverse and high-fidelity generative capabilities in the 2D domain. However, due to not being specifically trained on 3D data, their application to multi-view data often exacerbates inconsistency, hence impacting the overall quality of the 3D output. To address these issues, we introduce "In-N-Out", a novel approach that begins by inpainting a prior, i.e., the occluded area from a single view using DMs, followed by outstretching it to create multi-view inpaintings via latents alignments. Our analysis identifies that the variability in DMs' outputs mainly arises from initially sampled latents and intermediate latents predicted in the denoising process. We explicitly align of initial latents using a Neural Radiance Field (NeRF) to establish a consistent foundational structure in the inpainted area, complemented by an implicit alignment of intermediate latents through cross-view attention during the denoising phases, enhancing appearance consistency across views. To further enhance rendering results, we apply a patch-based hybrid loss to optimize NeRF. We demonstrate that our techniques effectively mitigate the challenges posed by inconsistencies in DMs and substantially improve the fidelity and coherence of inpainted 3D representations.

Poster
Achieving Optimal Clustering in Gaussian Mixture Models with Anisotropic Covariance Structures

Xin Chen, Anderson Ye Zhang

展开摘要

We study clustering under anisotropic Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs), where covariance matrices from different clusters are unknown and are not necessarily the identity matrix. We analyze two anisotropic scenarios: homogeneous, with identical covariance matrices, and heterogeneous, with distinct matrices per cluster. For these models, we derive minimax lower bounds that illustrate the critical influence of covariance structures on clustering accuracy. To solve the clustering problem, we consider a variant of Lloyd's algorithm, adapted to estimate and utilize covariance information iteratively. We prove that the adjusted algorithm not only achieves the minimax optimality but also converges within a logarithmic number of iterations, thus bridging the gap between theoretical guarantees and practical efficiency.

Oral
Quasi-Bayes meets Vines

David Huk, Yuanhe Zhang, Ritabrata Dutta, Mark Steel

展开摘要

Recently developed quasi-Bayesian (QB) methods \cite{fong2023martingale} proposed a stimulating change of paradigm in Bayesian computation by directly constructing the Bayesian predictive distribution through recursion, removing the need for expensive computations involved in sampling the Bayesian posterior distribution. This has proved to be data-efficient for univariate predictions, however, existing constructions for higher dimensional densities are only possible by relying on restrictive assumptions on the model's multivariate structure. Here, we propose a wholly different approach to extend Quasi-Bayesian prediction to high dimensions through the use of Sklar's theorem, by decomposing the predictive distribution into one-dimensional predictive marginals and a high-dimensional copula. We use the efficient recursive QB construction for the one-dimensional marginals and model the dependence using highly expressive vine copulas. Further, we tune hyperparameters using robust divergences (eg. energy score) and show that our proposed Quasi-Bayesian Vine (QB-Vine) is a fully non-parametric density estimator with \emph{an analytical form} and convergence rate independent of the dimension of the data in some situations. Our experiments illustrate that the QB-Vine is appropriate for high dimensional distributions ($\sim$64), needs very few samples to train ($\sim$200) and outperforms state-of-the-art methods with analytical forms for density estimation and supervised tasks by a considerable margin.

Poster