NeurIPS 2024 论文列表

Since the inception of our planet, the meteorological environment, as reflected through spatio-temporal data, has always been a fundamental factor influencing human life, socio-economic progress, and ecological conservation. A comprehensive exploration of this data is thus imperative to gain a deeper understanding and more accurate forecasting of these environmental shifts. Despite the success of deep learning techniques within the realm of spatio-temporal data and earth science, existing public datasets are beset with limitations in terms of spatial scale, temporal coverage, and reliance on limited time series data. These constraints hinder their optimal utilization in practical applications. To address these issues, we introduce **Terra**, a multimodal spatio-temporal dataset spanning the earth. This dataset encompasses hourly time series data from 6,480,000 grid areas worldwide over the past 45 years, while also incorporating multimodal spatial supplementary information including geo-images and explanatory text. Through a detailed data analysis and evaluation of existing deep learning models within earth sciences, utilizing our constructed dataset. we aim to provide valuable opportunities for enhancing future research in spatio-temporal data mining, thereby advancing towards more spatio-temporal general intelligence. Our source code and data can be accessed at https://github.com/CityMind-Lab/NeurIPS24-Terra.

Unlike natural language processing and computer vision, the development of Foundation Models (FMs) for time series forecasting is blocked due to data scarcity. While recent efforts are focused on building such FMs by unlocking the potential of language models (LMs) for time series analysis, dedicated parameters for various downstream forecasting tasks need training, which hinders the common knowledge sharing across domains. Moreover, data owners may hesitate to share the access to local data due to privacy concerns and copyright protection, which makes it impossible to simply construct a FM on cross-domain training instances. To address these issues, we propose Time-FFM, a Federated Foundation Model for Time series forecasting by leveraging pretrained LMs. Specifically, we begin by transforming time series into the modality of text tokens. To bootstrap LMs for time series reasoning, we propose a prompt adaption module to determine domain-customized prompts dynamically instead of artificially. Given the data heterogeneity across domains, we design a personalized federated training strategy by learning global encoders and local prediction heads. Our comprehensive experiments indicate that Time-FFM outperforms state-of-the-arts and promises effective few-shot and zero-shot forecaster. The code is available at https://github.com/CityMind-Lab/NeurIPS24-Time-FFM/tree/main.

Evaluating observational estimators of causal effects demands information that is rarely available: unconfounded interventions and outcomes from the population of interest, created either by randomization or adjustment. As a result, it is customary to fall back on simulators when creating benchmark tasks. Simulators offer great control but are often too simplistic to make challenging tasks, either because they are hand-designed and lack the nuances of real-world data, or because they are fit to observational data without structural constraints. In this work, we propose a general, repeatable strategy for turning observational data into sequential structural causal models and challenging estimation tasks by following two simple principles: 1) fitting real-world data where possible, and 2) creating complexity by composing simple, hand-designed mechanisms. We implement these ideas in a highly configurable software package and apply it to the well-known Adult income data set to construct the IncomeSCM simulator. From this, we devise multiple estimation tasks and sample data sets to compare established estimators of causal effects. The tasks present a suitable challenge, with effect estimates varying greatly in quality between methods, despite similar performance in the modeling of factual outcomes, highlighting the need for dedicated causal estimators and model selection criteria.

Monocular depth estimation (MDE) is fundamental for deriving 3D scene structures from 2D images. While state-of-the-art monocular relative depth estimation (MRDE) excels in estimating relative depths for in-the-wild images, current monocular metric depth estimation (MMDE) approaches still face challenges in handling unseen scenes. Since MMDE can be viewed as the composition of MRDE and metric scale recovery, we attribute this difficulty to scene dependency, where MMDE models rely on scenes observed during supervised training for predicting scene scales during inference. To address this issue, we propose to use humans as landmarks for distilling scene-independent metric scale priors from generative painting models. Our approach, Metric from Human (MfH), bridges from generalizable MRDE to zero-shot MMDE in a generate-and-estimate manner. Specifically, MfH generates humans on the input image with generative painting and estimates human dimensions with an off-the-shelf human mesh recovery (HMR) model. Based on MRDE predictions, it propagates the metric information from painted humans to the contexts, resulting in metric depth estimations for the original input. Through this annotation-free test-time adaptation, MfH achieves superior zero-shot performance in MMDE, demonstrating its strong generalization ability.

Foundation models of time series have not been fully developed due to the limited availability of time series corpora and the underexploration of scalable pre-training. Based on the similar sequential formulation of time series and natural language, increasing research demonstrates the feasibility of leveraging large language models (LLM) for time series. Nevertheless, the inherent autoregressive property and decoder-only architecture of LLMs have not been fully considered, resulting in insufficient utilization of LLM abilities. To fully revitalize the general-purpose token transition and multi-step generation capability of large language models, we propose AutoTimes to repurpose LLMs as autoregressive time series forecasters, which projects time series into the embedding space of language tokens and autoregressively generates future predictions with arbitrary lengths. Compatible with any decoder-only LLMs, the consequent forecaster exhibits the flexibility of the lookback length and scalability with larger LLMs. Further, we formulate time series as prompts, extending the context for prediction beyond the lookback window, termed in-context forecasting. By introducing LLM-embedded textual timestamps, AutoTimes can utilize chronological information to align multivariate time series. Empirically, AutoTimes achieves state-of-the-art with 0.1% trainable parameters and over $5\times$ training/inference speedup compared to advanced LLM-based forecasters. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/AutoTimes.

In this paper, we introduce a novel theoretical framework for multi-task regression, applying random matrix theory to provide precise performance estimations, under high-dimensional, non-Gaussian data distributions. We formulate a multi-task optimization problem as a regularization technique to enable single-task models to leverage multi-task learning information. We derive a closed-form solution for multi-task optimization in the context of linear models. Our analysis provides valuable insights by linking the multi-task learning performance to various model statistics such as raw data covariances, signal-generating hyperplanes, noise levels, as well as the size and number of datasets. We finally propose a consistent estimation of training and testing errors, thereby offering a robust foundation for hyperparameter optimization in multi-task regression scenarios. Experimental validations on both synthetic and real-world datasets in regression and multivariate time series forecasting demonstrate improvements on univariate models, incorporating our method into the training loss and thus leveraging multivariate information.

Diffusion models have become a leading method for generative modeling of both image and scientific data. As these models are costly to train and \emph{evaluate}, reducing the inference cost for diffusion models remains a major goal. Inspired by the recent empirical success in accelerating diffusion models via the parallel sampling technique~\cite{shih2024parallel}, we propose to divide the sampling process into $\mathcal{O}(1)$ blocks with parallelizable Picard iterations within each block. Rigorous theoretical analysis reveals that our algorithm achieves $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\mathrm{poly} \log d)$ overall time complexity, marking \emph{the first implementation with provable sub-linear complexity w.r.t. the data dimension $d$}. Our analysis is based on a generalized version of Girsanov's theorem and is compatible with both the SDE and probability flow ODE implementations. Our results shed light on the potential of fast and efficient sampling of high-dimensional data on fast-evolving modern large-memory GPU clusters.

Time series forecasting has played a pivotal role across various industries, including finance, transportation, energy, healthcare, and climate. Due to the abundant seasonal information they contain, timestamps possess the potential to offer robust global guidance for forecasting techniques. However, existing works primarily focus on local observations, with timestamps being treated merely as an optional supplement that remains underutilized. When data gathered from the real world is polluted, the absence of global information will damage the robust prediction capability of these algorithms. To address these problems, we propose a novel framework named GLAFF. Within this framework, the timestamps are modeled individually to capture the global dependencies. Working as a plugin, GLAFF adaptively adjusts the combined weights for global and local information, enabling seamless collaboration with any time series forecasting backbone. Extensive experiments conducted on nine real-world datasets demonstrate that GLAFF significantly enhances the average performance of widely used mainstream forecasting models by 12.5\%, surpassing the previous state-of-the-art method by 5.5\%.

Detecting and rejecting unknown out-of-distribution (OOD) samples is critical for deployed neural networks to void unreliable predictions. In real-world scenarios, however, the efficacy of existing OOD detection methods is often impeded by the inherent imbalance of in-distribution (ID) data, which causes significant performance decline. Through statistical observations, we have identified two common challenges faced by different OOD detectors: misidentifying tail class ID samples as OOD, while erroneously predicting OOD samples as head class from ID. To explain this phenomenon, we introduce a generalized statistical framework, termed ImOOD, to formulate the OOD detection problem on imbalanced data distribution. Consequently, the theoretical analysis reveals that there exists a class-aware bias item between balanced and imbalanced OOD detection, which contributes to the performance gap. Building upon this finding, we present a unified training-time regularization technique to mitigate the bias and boost imbalanced OOD detectors across architecture designs. Our theoretically grounded method translates into consistent improvements on the representative CIFAR10-LT, CIFAR100-LT, and ImageNet-LT benchmarks against several state-of-the-art OOD detection ap- proaches. Code is available at https://github.com/alibaba/imood.

Mixed time series (MiTS) comprising both continuous variables (CVs) and discrete variables (DVs) are frequently encountered yet under-explored in time series analysis. Essentially, CVs and DVs exhibit different temporal patterns and distribution types. Overlooking these heterogeneities would lead to insufficient and imbalanced representation learning, bringing biased results. This paper addresses the problem with two insights: 1) DVs may originate from intrinsic latent continuous variables (LCVs), which lose fine-grained information due to extrinsic discretization; 2) LCVs and CVs share similar temporal patterns and interact spatially. Considering these similarities and interactions, we propose a general MiTS analysis framework MiTSformer, which recovers LCVs behind DVs for sufficient and balanced spatial-temporal modeling by designing two essential inductive biases: 1) hierarchically aggregating multi-scale temporal context information to enrich the information granularity of DVs; 2) adaptively learning the aggregation processes via the adversarial guidance from CVs. Subsequently, MiTSformer captures complete spatial-temporal dependencies within and across LCVs and CVs via cascaded self- and cross-attention blocks. Empirically, MiTSformer achieves consistent SOTA on five mixed time series analysis tasks, including classification, extrinsic regression, anomaly detection, imputation, and long-term forecasting. The code is available at https://github.com/chunhuiz/MiTSformer.

Exploring the intricate dynamics between muscular and skeletal structures is pivotal for understanding human motion. This domain presents substantial challenges, primarily attributed to the intensive resources required for acquiring ground truth muscle activation data, resulting in a scarcity of datasets. In this work, we address this issue by establishing Muscles in Time (MinT), a large-scale synthetic muscle activation dataset. For the creation of MinT, we enriched existing motion capture datasets by incorporating muscle activation simulations derived from biomechanical human body models using the OpenSim platform, a common framework used in biomechanics and human motion research. Starting from simple pose sequences, our pipeline enables us to extract detailed information about the timing of muscle activations within the human musculoskeletal system. Muscles in Time contains over nine hours of simulation data covering 227 subjects and 402 simulated muscle strands. We demonstrate the utility of this dataset by presenting results on neural network-based muscle activation estimation from human pose sequences with two different sequence-to-sequence architectures.

Motion time series collected from low-power, always-on mobile and wearable devices such as smartphones and smartwatches offer significant insights into human behavioral patterns, with wide applications in healthcare, automation, IoT, and AR/XR. However, given security and privacy concerns, building large-scale motion time series datasets remains difficult, hindering the development of pre-trained models for human activity analysis. Typically, existing models are trained and tested on the same dataset, leading to poor generalizability across variations in device location, device mounting orientation, and human activity type. In this paper, we introduce UniMTS, the first unified pre-training procedure for motion time series that generalizes across diverse device latent factors and activities. Specifically, we employ a contrastive learning framework that aligns motion time series with text descriptions enriched by large language models. This helps the model learn the semantics of time series to generalize across activities. Given the absence of large-scale motion time series data, we derive and synthesize time series from existing motion skeleton data with all-joint coverage. We use spatio-temporal graph networks to capture the relationships across joints for generalization across different device locations. We further design rotation-invariant augmentation to make the model agnostic to changes in device mounting orientations. Our model shows exceptional generalizability across 18 motion time series classification benchmark datasets, outperforming the best baselines by 340% in the zero-shot setting, 16.3% in the few-shot setting, and 9.2% in the full-shot setting.

The spatio-temporal relations of impacts of extreme events and their drivers in climate data are not fully understood and there is a need of machine learning approaches to identify such spatio-temporal relations from data. The task, however, is very challenging since there are time delays between extremes and their drivers, and the spatial response of such drivers is inhomogeneous. In this work, we propose a first approach and benchmarks to tackle this challenge. Our approach is trained end-to-end to predict spatio-temporally extremes and spatio-temporally drivers in the physical input variables jointly. By enforcing the network to predict extremes from spatio-temporal binary masks of identified drivers, the network successfully identifies drivers that are correlated with extremes. We evaluate our approach on three newly created synthetic benchmarks, where two of them are based on remote sensing or reanalysis climate data, and on two real-world reanalysis datasets. The source code and datasets are publicly available at the project page https://hakamshams.github.io/IDE.

Large language models (LLMs) are being applied to time series forecasting. But are language models actually useful for time series? In a series of ablation studies on three recent and popular LLM-based time series forecasting methods, we find that removing the LLM component or replacing it with a basic attention layer does not degrade forecasting performance---in most cases, the results even improve! We also find that despite their significant computational cost, pretrained LLMs do no better than models trained from scratch, do not represent the sequential dependencies in time series, and do not assist in few-shot settings. Additionally, we explore time series encoders and find that patching and attention structures perform similarly to LLM-based forecasters. All resources needed to reproduce our work are available: https://github.com/BennyTMT/LLMsForTimeSeries.

In this paper, we introduce Cosine Autoencoder (CosAE), a novel, generic Autoencoder that seamlessly leverages the classic Fourier series with a feed-forward neural network. CosAE represents an input image as a series of 2D Cosine time series, each defined by a tuple of learnable frequency and Fourier coefficients. This method stands in contrast to a conventional Autoencoder that often sacrifices detail in their reduced-resolution bottleneck latent spaces. CosAE, however, encodes frequency coefficients, i.e., the amplitudes and phases, in its bottleneck. This encoding enables extreme spatial compression, e.g., $64\times$ downsampled feature maps in the bottleneck, without losing detail upon decoding. We showcase the advantage of CosAE via extensive experiments on flexible-resolution super-resolution and blind image restoration, two highly challenging tasks that demand the restoration network to effectively generalize to complex and even unknown image degradations. Our method surpasses state-of-the-art approaches, highlighting its capability to learn a generalizable representation for image restoration. The project page is maintained at [https://sifeiliu.net/CosAE-page/](https://sifeiliu.net/CosAE-page/).

Scaling law that rewards large datasets, complex models and enhanced data granularity has been observed in various fields of deep learning. Yet, studies on time series forecasting have cast doubt on scaling behaviors of deep learning methods for time series forecasting: while more training data improves performance, more capable models do not always outperform less capable models, and longer input horizon may hurt performance for some models. We propose a theory for scaling law for time series forecasting that can explain these seemingly abnormal behaviors. We take into account the impact of dataset size and model complexity, as well as time series data granularity, particularly focusing on the look-back horizon, an aspect that has been unexplored in previous theories. Furthermore, we empirically evaluate various models using a diverse set of time series forecasting datasets, which (1) verifies the validity of scaling law on dataset size and model complexity within the realm of time series forecasting, and (2) validates our theoretical framework, particularly regarding the influence of look back horizon. We hope our findings may inspire new models targeting time series forecasting datasets of limited size, as well as large foundational datasets and models for time series forecasting in future works.

When decisions are made at high frequency, traditional reinforcement learning (RL) methods struggle to accurately estimate action values. In turn, their performance is inconsistent and often poor. Whether the performance of distributional RL (DRL) agents suffers similarly, however, is unknown. In this work, we establish that DRL agents *are* sensitive to the decision frequency. We prove that action-conditioned return distributions collapse to their underlying policy's return distribution as the decision frequency increases. We quantify the rate of collapse of these return distributions and exhibit that their statistics collapse at different rates. Moreover, we define distributional perspectives on action gaps and advantages. In particular, we introduce the *superiority* as a probabilistic generalization of the advantage---the core object of approaches to mitigating performance issues in high-frequency value-based RL. In addition, we build a superiority-based DRL algorithm. Through simulations in an option-trading domain, we validate that proper modeling of the superiority distribution produces improved controllers at high decision frequencies.

The interaction between Fourier transform and deep learning opens new avenues for long-term time series forecasting (LTSF). We propose a new perspective to reconsider the Fourier transform from a basis functions perspective. Specifically, the real and imaginary parts of the frequency components can be viewed as the coefficients of cosine and sine basis functions at tiered frequency levels, respectively. We argue existing Fourier-based methods do not involve basis functions thus fail to interpret frequency coefficients precisely and consider the time-frequency relationship sufficiently, leading to inconsistent starting cycles and inconsistent series length issues. Accordingly, a novel Fourier basis mapping (FBM) method addresses these issues by mixing time and frequency domain features through Fourier basis expansion. Differing from existing approaches, FBM (i) embeds the discrete Fourier transform with basis functions, and then (ii) can enable plug-and-play in various types of neural networks for better performance. FBM extracts explicit frequency features while preserving temporal characteristics, enabling the mapping network to capture the time-frequency relationships. By incorporating our unique time-frequency features, the FBM variants can enhance any type of networks like linear, multilayer-perceptron-based, transformer-based, and Fourier-based networks, achieving state-of-the-art LTSF results on diverse real-world datasets with just one or three fully connected layers. The code is available at: https://github.com/runze1223/Fourier-Basis-Mapping.

With the proposal of patching technique in time series forecasting, Transformerbased models have achieved compelling performance and gained great interest from the time series community. But at the same time, we observe a new problem that the recent Transformer-based models are overly reliant on patching to achieve ideal performance, which limits their applicability to some forecasting tasks unsuitable for patching. In this paper, we intent to handle this emerging issue. Through diving into the relationship between patching and full attention (the core mechanism in Transformer-based models), we further find out the reason behind this issue is that full attention relies overly on the guidance of patching to focus on the important time points and learn non-trivial temporal representation. Based on this finding, we propose DeformableTST as an effective solution to this emerging issue. Specifically, we propose deformable attention, a sparse attention mechanism that can better focus on the important time points by itself, to get rid of the need of patching. And we also adopt a hierarchical structure to alleviate the efficiency issue caused by the removal of patching. Experimentally, our DeformableTST achieves the consistent state-of-the-art performance in a broader range of time series tasks, especially achieving promising performance in forecasting tasks unsuitable for patching, therefore successfully reducing the reliance on patching and broadening the applicability of Transformer-based models. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/luodhhh/DeformableTST.