NeurIPS 2024 论文列表

As illustrated by the success of integer linear programming, linear integer arithmetics is a powerful tool for modelling combinatorial problems. Furthermore, the probabilistic extension of linear programming has been used to formulate problems in neurosymbolic AI. However, two key problems persist that prevent the adoption of neurosymbolic techniques beyond toy problems. First, probabilistic inference is inherently hard, #P-hard to be precise. Second, the discrete nature of integers renders the construction of meaningful gradients challenging, which is problematic for learning. In order to mitigate these issues, we formulate linear arithmetics over integer-valued random variables as tensor manipulations that can be implemented in a straightforward fashion using modern deep learning libraries. At the core of our formulation lies the observation that the addition of two integer-valued random variables can be performed by adapting the fast Fourier transform to probabilities in the log-domain. By relying on tensor operations we obtain a differentiable data structure, which unlocks, virtually for free, gradient-based learning. In our experimental validation we show that tensorising probabilistic integer linear arithmetics and leveraging the fast Fourier transform allows us to push the state of the art by several orders of magnitude in terms of inference and learning times.

Bayesian optimization is an effective technique for black-box optimization, but its applicability is typically limited to low-dimensional and small-budget problems due to the cubic complexity of computing the Gaussian process (GP) surrogate. While various approximate GP models have been employed to scale Bayesian optimization to larger sample sizes, most suffer from overly-smooth estimation and focus primarily on problems that allow for large online samples. In this work, we argue that Bayesian optimization algorithms with sparse GPs can more efficiently allocate their representational power to relevant regions of the search space. To achieve this, we propose focalized GP, which leverages a novel variational loss function to achieve stronger local prediction, as well as FocalBO, which hierarchically optimizes the focalized GP acquisition function over progressively smaller search spaces. Experimental results demonstrate that FocalBO can efficiently leverage large amounts of offline and online data to achieve state-of-the-art performance on robot morphology design and to control a 585-dimensional musculoskeletal system.

Bayes' rule naturally allows for inference refinement in a streaming fashion, without the need to recompute posteriors from scratch whenever new data arrives. In principle, Bayesian streaming is straightforward: we update our prior with the available data and use the resulting posterior as a prior when processing the next data chunk. In practice, however, this recipe entails i) approximating an intractable posterior at each time step; and ii) encapsulating results appropriately to allow for posterior propagation. For continuous state spaces, variational inference (VI) is particularly convenient due to its scalability and the tractability of variational posteriors, For discrete state spaces, however, state-of-the-art VI results in analytically intractable approximations that are ill-suited for streaming settings. To enable streaming Bayesian inference over discrete parameter spaces, we propose streaming Bayes GFlowNets (abbreviated as SB-GFlowNets) by leveraging the recently proposed GFlowNets --- a powerful class of amortized samplers for discrete compositional objects. Notably, SB-GFlowNet approximates the initial posterior using a standard GFlowNet and subsequently updates it using a tailored procedure that requires only the newly observed data. Our case studies in linear preference learning and phylogenetic inference showcase the effectiveness of SB-GFlowNets in sampling from an unnormalized posterior in a streaming setting. As expected, we also observe that SB-GFlowNets is significantly faster than repeatedly training a GFlowNet from scratch to sample from the full posterior.

The high-dimensional single index model (SIM), which assumes that the response is independent of the predictors given a linear combination of predictors, has drawn attention due to its flexibility and interpretability, but its efficiency is adversely affected by outlying observations and heavy-tailed distributions. This paper introduces a robust procedure by recasting the SIM into a pseudo-linear model with transformed responses. It relaxes the distributional conditions on random errors from sub-Gaussian to more general distributions and thus it is robust with substantial efficiency gain for heavy-tailed random errors. Under this paradigm, we provide asymptotically honest group inference procedures based on the idea of orthogonalization, which enjoys the feature that it does not require the zero and nonzero coefficients to be well-separated. Asymptotic null distribution and bootstrap implementation are both established. Moreover, we develop a multiple testing procedure for determining if the individual coefficients are relevant simultaneously, and show that it is able to control the false discovery rate asymptotically. Numerical results indicate that the new procedures can be highly competitive among existing methods, especially for heavy-tailed errors.

Large Language Models (LLMs) often suffer from overconfidence during inference, particularly when adapted to downstream domain-specific tasks with limited data. Previous work addresses this issue by employing approximate Bayesian estimation after the LLMs are trained, enabling them to quantify uncertainty. However, such post-training approaches' performance is severely limited by the parameters learned during training. In this paper, we go beyond post-training Bayesianization and propose Bayesian Low-Rank Adaptation by Backpropagation (BLoB), an algorithm that continuously and jointly adjusts both the mean and covariance of LLM parameters throughout the whole fine-tuning process. Our empirical results verify the effectiveness of BLoB in terms of generalization and uncertainty estimation, when evaluated on both in-distribution and out-of-distribution data.

Causal disentanglement aims to learn about latent causal factors behind data, hold- ing the promise to augment existing representation learning methods in terms of interpretability and extrapolation. Recent advances establish identifiability results assuming that interventions on (single) latent factors are available; however, it re- mains debatable whether such assumptions are reasonable due to the inherent nature of intervening on latent variables. Accordingly, we reconsider the fundamentals and ask what can be learned using just observational data. We provide a precise characterization of latent factors that can be identified in nonlinear causal models with additive Gaussian noise and linear mixing, without any interventions or graphical restrictions. In particular, we show that the causal variables can be identified up to a _layer_-wise transformation and that further disen- tanglement is not possible. We transform these theoretical results into a practical algorithm consisting of solving a quadratic program over the score estimation of the observed data. We provide simulation results to support our theoretical guarantees and demonstrate that our algorithm can derive meaningful causal representations from purely observational data.

Message-passing graph neural networks (MPNNs) have emerged as a powerful paradigm for graph-based machine learning. Despite their effectiveness, MPNNs face challenges such as under-reaching and over-squashing, where limited receptive fields and structural bottlenecks hinder information flow in the graph. While graph transformers hold promise in addressing these issues, their scalability is limited due to quadratic complexity regarding the number of nodes, rendering them impractical for larger graphs. Here, we propose implicitly rewired message-passing neural networks (IPR-MPNNs), a novel approach that integrates implicit probabilistic graph rewiring into MPNNs. By introducing a small number of virtual nodes, i.e., adding additional nodes to a given graph and connecting them to existing nodes, in a differentiable, end-to-end manner, IPR-MPNNs enable long-distance message propagation, circumventing quadratic complexity. Theoretically, we demonstrate that IPR-MPNNs surpass the expressiveness of traditional MPNNs. Empirically, we validate our approach by showcasing its ability to mitigate under-reaching and over-squashing effects, achieving state-of-the-art performance across multiple graph datasets. Notably, IPR-MPNNs outperform graph transformers while maintaining significantly faster computational efficiency.

State-space graphical models and the variational autoencoder framework provide a principled apparatus for learning dynamical systems from data. State-of-the-art probabilistic approaches are often able to scale to large problems at the cost of flexibility of the variational posterior or expressivity of the dynamics model. However, those consolidations can be detrimental if the ultimate goal is to learn a generative model capable of explaining the spatiotemporal structure of the data and making accurate forecasts. We introduce a low-rank structured variational autoencoding framework for nonlinear Gaussian state-space graphical models capable of capturing dense covariance structures that are important for learning dynamical systems with predictive capabilities. Our inference algorithm exploits the covariance structures that arise naturally from sample based approximate Gaussian message passing and low-rank amortized posterior updates -- effectively performing approximate variational smoothing with time complexity scaling linearly in the state dimensionality. In comparisons with other deep state-space model architectures our approach consistently demonstrates the ability to learn a more predictive generative model. Furthermore, when applied to neural physiological recordings, our approach is able to learn a dynamical system capable of forecasting population spiking and behavioral correlates from a small portion of single trials.

Understanding how the collective activity of neural populations relates to computation and ultimately behavior is a key goal in neuroscience. To this end, statistical methods which describe high-dimensional neural time series in terms of low-dimensional latent dynamics have played a fundamental role in characterizing neural systems. Yet, what constitutes a successful method involves two opposing criteria: (1) methods should be expressive enough to capture complex nonlinear dynamics, and (2) they should maintain a notion of interpretability often only warranted by simpler linear models. In this paper, we develop an approach that balances these two objectives: the Gaussian Process Switching Linear Dynamical System (gpSLDS). Our method builds on previous work modeling the latent state evolution via a stochastic differential equation whose nonlinear dynamics are described by a Gaussian process (GP-SDEs). We propose a novel kernel function which enforces smoothly interpolated locally linear dynamics, and therefore expresses flexible -- yet interpretable -- dynamics akin to those of recurrent switching linear dynamical systems (rSLDS). Our approach resolves key limitations of the rSLDS such as artifactual oscillations in dynamics near discrete state boundaries, while also providing posterior uncertainty estimates of the dynamics. To fit our models, we leverage a modified learning objective which improves the estimation accuracy of kernel hyperparameters compared to previous GP-SDE fitting approaches. We apply our method to synthetic data and data recorded in two neuroscience experiments and demonstrate favorable performance in comparison to the rSLDS.

We develop a Mean-Field (MF) view of the learning dynamics of overparametrized Artificial Neural Networks (NN) under distributional symmetries of the data w.r.t. the action of a general compact group $G$. We consider for this a class of generalized shallow NNs given by an ensemble of $N$ multi-layer units, jointly trained using stochastic gradient descent (SGD) and possibly symmetry-leveraging (SL) techniques, such as Data Augmentation (DA), Feature Averaging (FA) or Equivariant Architectures (EA). We introduce the notions of weakly and strongly invariant laws (WI and SI) on the parameter space of each single unit, corresponding, respectively, to $G$-invariant distributions, and to distributions supported on parameters fixed by the group action (which encode EA). This allows us to define symmetric models compatible with taking $N\to\infty$ and give an interpretation of the asymptotic dynamics of DA, FA and EA in terms of Wasserstein Gradient Flows describing their MF limits. When activations respect the group action, we show that, for symmetric data, DA, FA and freely-trained models obey the exact same MF dynamic, which stays in the space of WI parameter laws and attains therein the population risk's minimizer. We also provide a counterexample to the general attainability of such an optimum over SI laws. Despite this, and quite remarkably, we show that the space of SI laws is also preserved by these MF distributional dynamics even when freely trained. This sharply contrasts the finite-$N$ setting, in which EAs are generally not preserved by unconstrained SGD. We illustrate the validity of our findings as $N$ gets larger, in a teacher-student experimental setting, training a student NN to learn from a WI, SI or arbitrary teacher model through various SL schemes. We lastly deduce a data-driven heuristic to discover the largest subspace of parameters supporting SI distributions for a problem, that could be used for designing EA with minimal generalization error.

The metric backbone of a weighted graph is the union of all-pairs shortest paths. It is obtained by removing all edges $(u,v)$ that are not the shortest path between $u$ and $v$. In networks with well-separated communities, the metric backbone tends to preserve many inter-community edges, because these edges serve as bridges connecting two communities, but tends to delete many intra-community edges because the communities are dense. This suggests that the metric backbone would dilute or destroy the community structure of the network. However, this is not borne out by prior empirical work, which instead showed that the metric backbone of real networks preserves the community structure of the original network well. In this work, we analyze the metric backbone of a broad class of weighted random graphs with communities, and we formally prove the robustness of the community structure with respect to the deletion of all the edges that are not in the metric backbone. An empirical comparison of several graph sparsification techniques confirms our theoretical finding and shows that the metric backbone is an efficient sparsifier in the presence of communities.

Probabilistic integral circuits (PICs) have been recently introduced as probabilistic models enjoying the key ingredient behind expressive generative models: continuous latent variables (LVs). PICs are symbolic computational graphs defining continuous LV models as hierarchies of functions that are summed and multiplied together, or integrated over some LVs. They are tractable if LVs can be analytically integrated out, otherwise they can be approximated by tractable probabilistic circuits (PC) encoding a hierarchical numerical quadrature process, called QPCs. So far, only tree-shaped PICs have been explored, and training them via numerical quadrature requires memory-intensive processing at scale. In this paper, we address these issues, and present: (i) a pipeline for building DAG-shaped PICs out of arbitrary variable decompositions, (ii) a procedure for training PICs using tensorized circuit architectures, and (iii) neural functional sharing techniques to allow scalable training. In extensive experiments, we showcase the effectiveness of functional sharing and the superiority of QPCs over traditional PCs.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) lack the precise semantics and definitive probabilistic interpretation of probabilistic graphical models (PGMs). In this paper, we propose an innovative solution by constructing infinite tree-structured PGMs that correspond exactly to neural networks. Our research reveals that DNNs, during forward propagation, indeed perform approximations of PGM inference that are precise in this alternative PGM structure. Not only does our research complement existing studies that describe neural networks as kernel machines or infinite-sized Gaussian processes, it also elucidates a more direct approximation that DNNs make to exact inference in PGMs. Potential benefits include improved pedagogy and interpretation of DNNs, and algorithms that can merge the strengths of PGMs and DNNs.

Recently, research on denoising diffusion models has expanded its application to the field of image restoration. Traditional diffusion-based image restoration methods utilize degraded images as conditional input to effectively guide the reverse generation process, without modifying the original denoising diffusion process. However, since the degraded images already include low-frequency information, starting from Gaussian white noise will result in increased sampling steps. We propose Resfusion, a general framework that incorporates the residual term into the diffusion forward process, starting the reverse process directly from the noisy degraded images. The form of our inference process is consistent with the DDPM. We introduced a weighted residual noise, named resnoise, as the prediction target and explicitly provide the quantitative relationship between the residual term and the noise term in resnoise. By leveraging a smooth equivalence transformation, Resfusion determine the optimal acceleration step and maintains the integrity of existing noise schedules, unifying the training and inference processes. The experimental results demonstrate that Resfusion exhibits competitive performance on ISTD dataset, LOL dataset and Raindrop dataset with only five sampling steps. Furthermore, Resfusion can be easily applied to image generation and emerges with strong versatility. Our code and model are available at https://github.com/nkicsl/Resfusion.

We propose a novel approach to the problem of mutual information (MI) estimation via introducing a family of estimators based on normalizing flows. The estimator maps original data to the target distribution, for which MI is easier to estimate. We additionally explore the target distributions with known closed-form expressions for MI. Theoretical guarantees are provided to demonstrate that our approach yields MI estimates for the original data. Experiments with high-dimensional data are conducted to highlight the practical advantages of the proposed method.

Beyond estimating parameters of interest from data, one of the key goals of statistical inference is to properly quantify uncertainty in these estimates. In Bayesian inference, this uncertainty is provided by the posterior distribution, the computation of which typically involves an intractable high-dimensional integral. Among available approximation methods, sampling-based approaches come with strong theoretical guarantees but scale poorly to large problems, while variational approaches scale well but offer few theoretical guarantees. In particular, variational methods are known to produce overconfident estimates of posterior uncertainty and are typically non-identifiable, with many latent variable configurations generating equivalent predictions. Here, we address these challenges by showing how diffusion-based models (DBMs), which have recently produced state-of-the-art performance in generative modeling tasks, can be repurposed for performing calibrated, identifiable Bayesian inference. By exploiting a previously established connection between the stochastic and probability flow ordinary differential equations (pfODEs) underlying DBMs, we derive a class of models, \emph{inflationary flows,} that uniquely and deterministically map high-dimensional data to a lower-dimensional Gaussian distribution via ODE integration. This map is both invertible and neighborhood-preserving, with controllable numerical error, with the result that uncertainties in the data are correctly propagated to the latent space. We demonstrate how such maps can be learned via standard DBM training using a novel noise schedule and are effective at both preserving and reducing intrinsic data dimensionality. The result is a class of highly expressive generative models, uniquely defined on a low-dimensional latent space, that afford principled Bayesian inference.

Simulation-based inference (SBI) is constantly in search of more expressive and efficient algorithms to accurately infer the parameters of complex simulation models. In line with this goal, we present consistency models for posterior estimation (CMPE), a new conditional sampler for SBI that inherits the advantages of recent unconstrained architectures and overcomes their sampling inefficiency at inference time. CMPE essentially distills a continuous probability flow and enables rapid few-shot inference with an unconstrained architecture that can be flexibly tailored to the structure of the estimation problem. We provide hyperparameters and default architectures that support consistency training over a wide range of different dimensions, including low-dimensional ones which are important in SBI workflows but were previously difficult to tackle even with unconditional consistency models. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates that CMPE not only outperforms current state-of-the-art algorithms on hard low-dimensional benchmarks, but also achieves competitive performance with much faster sampling speed on two realistic estimation problems with high data and/or parameter dimensions.

Bayesian optimisation for real-world problems is often performed interactively with human experts, and integrating their domain knowledge is key to accelerate the optimisation process. We consider a setup where experts provide advice on the next query point through binary accept/reject recommendations (labels). Experts’ labels are often costly, requiring efficient use of their efforts, and can at the same time be unreliable, requiring careful adjustment of the degree to which any expert is trusted. We introduce the first principled approach that provides two key guarantees. (1) Handover guarantee: similar to a no-regret property, we establish a sublinear bound on the cumulative number of experts’ binary labels. Initially, multiple labels per query are needed, but the number of expert labels required asymptotically converges to zero, saving both expert effort and computation time. (2) No-harm guarantee with data-driven trust level adjustment: our adaptive trust level ensures that the convergence rate will not be worse than the one without using advice, even if the advice from experts is adversarial. Unlike existing methods that employ a user-defined function that hand-tunes the trust level adjustment, our approach enables data-driven adjustments. Real-world applications empirically demonstrate that our method not only outperforms existing baselines, but also maintains robustness despite varying labelling accuracy, in tasks of battery design with human experts.

Recent works in Variational Inference have examined alternative criteria to the commonly used exclusive Kullback-Leibler divergence. Encouraging empirical results have been obtained with the family of alpha-divergences, but few works have focused on the asymptotic properties of the proposed algorithms, especially as the number of iterations goes to infinity. In this paper, we study a procedure that ensures a monotonic decrease in the alpha-divergence. We provide sufficient conditions to guarantee its convergence to a local minimizer of the alpha-divergence at a geometric rate when the variational family belongs to the class of exponential models. The sample-based version of this ideal procedure involves biased gradient estimators, thus hindering any theoretical study. We propose an alternative unbiased algorithm, we prove its almost sure convergence to a local minimizer of the alpha-divergence, and a law of the iterated logarithm. Our results are exemplified with toy and real-data experiments.