NeurIPS 2024 论文列表

The Bayesian two-step change point detection method is popular for the Hawkes process due to its simplicity and intuitiveness. However, the non-conjugacy between the point process likelihood and the prior requires most existing Bayesian two-step change point detection methods to rely on non-conjugate inference methods. These methods lack analytical expressions, leading to low computational efficiency and impeding timely change point detection. To address this issue, this work employs data augmentation to propose a conjugate Bayesian two-step change point detection method for the Hawkes process, which proves to be more accurate and efficient. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real data demonstrate the superior effectiveness and efficiency of our method compared to baseline methods. Additionally, we conduct ablation studies to explore the robustness of our method concerning various hyperparameters.

For challenging state estimation problems arising in domains like vision and robotics, particle-based representations attractively enable temporal reasoning about multiple posterior modes. Particle smoothers offer the potential for more accurate offline data analysis by propagating information both forward and backward in time, but have classically required human-engineered dynamics and observation models. Extending recent advances in discriminative training of particle filters, we develop a framework for low-variance propagation of gradients across long time sequences when training particle smoothers. Our "two-filter" smoother integrates particle streams that are propagated forward and backward in time, while incorporating stratification and importance weights in the resampling step to provide low-variance gradient estimates for neural network dynamics and observation models. The resulting mixture density particle smoother is substantially more accurate than state-of-the-art particle filters, as well as search-based baselines, for city-scale global vehicle localization from real-world videos and maps.

We introduce Annealed Multiple Choice Learning (aMCL) which combines simulated annealing with MCL. MCL is a learning framework handling ambiguous tasks by predicting a small set of plausible hypotheses. These hypotheses are trained using the Winner-takes-all (WTA) scheme, which promotes the diversity of the predictions. However, this scheme may converge toward an arbitrarily suboptimal local minimum, due to the greedy nature of WTA. We overcome this limitation using annealing, which enhances the exploration of the hypothesis space during training. We leverage insights from statistical physics and information theory to provide a detailed description of the model training trajectory. Additionally, we validate our algorithm by extensive experiments on synthetic datasets, on the standard UCI benchmark, and on speech separation.

When solving ill-posed inverse problems, one often desires to explore the space of potential solutions rather than be presented with a single plausible reconstruction. Valuable insights into these feasible solutions and their associated probabilities are embedded in the posterior distribution. However, when confronted with data of high dimensionality (such as images), visualizing this distribution becomes a formidable challenge, necessitating the application of effective summarization techniques before user examination. In this work, we introduce a new approach for visualizing posteriors across multiple levels of granularity using *tree*-valued predictions. Our method predicts a tree-valued hierarchical summarization of the posterior distribution for any input measurement, in a single forward pass of a neural network. We showcase the efficacy of our approach across diverse datasets and image restoration challenges, highlighting its prowess in uncertainty quantification and visualization. Our findings reveal that our method performs comparably to a baseline that hierarchically clusters samples from a diffusion-based posterior sampler, yet achieves this with orders of magnitude greater speed. Code and examples are available at our [webpage](https://eliasnehme.github.io/PosteriorTrees/).

A popular paradigm for offline Reinforcement Learning (RL) tasks is to first fit the offline trajectories to a sequence model, and then prompt the model for actions that lead to high expected return. In addition to obtaining accurate sequence models, this paper highlights that tractability, the ability to exactly and efficiently answer various probabilistic queries, plays an important role in offline RL. Specifically, due to the fundamental stochasticity from the offline data-collection policies and the environment dynamics, highly non-trivial conditional/constrained generation is required to elicit rewarding actions. While it is still possible to approximate such queries, we observe that such crude estimates undermine the benefits brought by expressive sequence models. To overcome this problem, this paper proposes Trifle (Tractable Inference for Offline RL), which leverages modern tractable generative models to bridge the gap between good sequence models and high expected returns at evaluation time. Empirically, Trifle achieves $7$ state-of-the-art scores and the highest average scores in $9$ Gym-MuJoCo benchmarks against strong baselines. Further, Trifle significantly outperforms prior approaches in stochastic environments and safe RL tasks with minimum algorithmic modifications.

Latent Bayesian optimization (LBO) approaches have successfully adopted Bayesian optimization over a continuous latent space by employing an encoder-decoder architecture to address the challenge of optimization in a high dimensional or discrete input space. LBO learns a surrogate model to approximate the black-box objective function in the latent space. However, we observed that most LBO methods suffer from the `misalignment problem', which is induced by the reconstruction error of the encoder-decoder architecture. It hinders learning an accurate surrogate model and generating high-quality solutions. In addition, several trust region-based LBO methods select the anchor, the center of the trust region, based solely on the objective function value without considering the trust region's potential to enhance the optimization process. To address these issues, we propose $\textbf{Inv}$ersion-based Latent $\textbf{B}$ayesian $\textbf{O}$ptimization (InvBO), a plug-and-play module for LBO. InvBO consists of two components: an inversion method and a potential-aware trust region anchor selection. The inversion method searches the latent code that completely reconstructs the given target data. The potential-aware trust region anchor selection considers the potential capability of the trust region for better local optimization. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of InvBO on nine real-world benchmarks, such as molecule design and arithmetic expression fitting tasks. Code is available at https://github.com/mlvlab/InvBO.

Evidential Deep Learning (EDL), grounded in Evidence Theory and Subjective Logic (SL), provides a robust framework to estimate uncertainty for out-of-distribution (OOD) detection alongside traditional classification probabilities.However, the EDL framework is constrained by its focus on evidence that supports only single categories, neglecting the other collective evidences that could corroborate multiple in-distribution categories. This limitation leads to a diminished estimation of uncertainty and a subsequent decline in OOD detection performance.Additionally, EDL encounters the vanishing gradient problem within its fully-connected layers, further degrading classification accuracy.To address these issues, we introduce hyper-domain and propose Hyper-opinion Evidential Deep Learning (HEDL). HEDL extends the evidence modeling paradigm by explicitly integrating sharp evidence, which supports a singular category, with vague evidence that accommodates multiple potential categories.Additionally, we propose a novel opinion projection mechanism that translates hyper-opinion into multinomial-opinion, which is then optimized within the EDL framework to ensure precise classification and refined uncertainty estimation.HEDL integrates evidences across various categories to yield a holistic evidentiary foundation for achieving superior OOD detection. Furthermore, our proposed opinion projection method effectively mitigates the vanishing gradient issue, ensuring classification accuracy without additional model complexity. Extensive experiments over many datasets demonstrate our proposed method outperforms existing OOD detection methods.

Multiple types of inference are available for probabilistic graphical models, e.g., marginal, maximum-a-posteriori, and even marginal maximum-a-posteriori. Which one do researchers mean when they talk about ``planning as inference''? There is no consistency in the literature, different types are used, and their ability to do planning is further entangled with specific approximations or additional constraints. In this work we use the variational framework to show that, just like all commonly used types of inference correspond to different weightings of the entropy terms in the variational problem, planning corresponds _exactly_ to a _different_ set of weights. This means that all the tricks of variational inference are readily applicable to planning. We develop an analogue of loopy belief propagation that allows us to perform approximate planning in factored-state Markov decisions processes without incurring intractability due to the exponentially large state space. The variational perspective shows that the previous types of inference for planning are only adequate in environments with low stochasticity, and allows us to characterize each type by its own merits, disentangling the type of inference from the additional approximations that its practical use requires. We validate these results empirically on synthetic MDPs and tasks posed in the International Planning Competition.

Disease progression models infer group-level temporal trajectories of change in patients' features as a chronic degenerative condition plays out. They provide unique insight into disease biology and staging systems with individual-level clinical utility. Discrete models consider disease progression as a latent permutation of events, where each event corresponds to a feature becoming measurably abnormal. However, permutation inference using traditional maximum likelihood approaches becomes prohibitive due to combinatoric explosion, severely limiting model dimensionality and utility. Here we leverage ideas from optimal transport to model disease progression as a latent permutation matrix of events belonging to the Birkhoff polytope, facilitating fast inference via optimisation of the variational lower bound. This enables a factor of 1000 times faster inference than the current state of the art and, correspondingly, supports models with several orders of magnitude more features than the current state of the art can consider. Experiments demonstrate the increase in speed, accuracy and robustness to noise in simulation. Further experiments with real-world imaging data from two separate datasets, one from Alzheimer's disease patients, the other age-related macular degeneration, showcase, for the first time, pixel-level disease progression events in the brain and eye, respectively. Our method is low compute, interpretable and applicable to any progressive condition and data modality, giving it broad potential clinical utility.

Bayesian coresets speed up posterior inference in the large-scale data regime by approximating the full-data log-likelihood function with a surrogate log-likelihood based on a small, weighted subset of the data. But while Bayesian coresets and methods for construction are applicable in a wide range of models, existing theoretical analysis of the posterior inferential error incurred by coreset approximations only apply in restrictive settings---i.e., exponential family models, or models with strong log-concavity and smoothness assumptions. This work presents general upper and lower bounds on the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence of coreset approximations that reflect the full range of applicability of Bayesian coresets. The lower bounds require only mild model assumptions typical of Bayesian asymptotic analyses, while the upper bounds require the log-likelihood functions to satisfy a generalized subexponentiality criterion that is weaker than conditions used in earlier work. The lower bounds are applied to obtain fundamental limitations on the quality of coreset approximations, and to provide a theoretical explanation for the previously-observed poor empirical performance of importance sampling-based construction methods. The upper bounds are used to analyze the performance of recent subsample-optimize methods. The flexibility of the theory is demonstrated in validation experiments involving multimodal, unidentifiable, heavy-tailed Bayesian posterior distributions.

In this paper, we obtain the Berry–Esseen bound for multivariate normal approximation for the Polyak-Ruppert averaged iterates of the linear stochastic approximation (LSA) algorithm with decreasing step size. Moreover, we prove the non-asymptotic validity of the confidence intervals for parameter estimation with LSA based on multiplier bootstrap. This procedure updates the LSA estimate together with a set of randomly perturbed LSA estimates upon the arrival of subsequent observations. We illustrate our findings in the setting of temporal difference learning with linear function approximation.

In this paper, we study the statistical and geometrical properties of the Kullback-Leibler divergence with kernel covariance operators (KKL) introduced by [Bach, 2022, Information Theory with Kernel Methods]. Unlike the classical Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence that involves density ratios, the KKL compares probability distributions through covariance operators (embeddings) in a reproducible kernel Hilbert space (RKHS), and compute the Kullback-Leibler quantum divergence. This novel divergence hence shares parallel but different aspects with both the standard Kullback-Leibler between probability distributions and kernel embeddings metrics such as the maximum mean discrepancy. A limitation faced with the original KKL divergence is its inability to be defined for distributions with disjoint supports. To solve this problem, we propose in this paper a regularised variant that guarantees that divergence is well defined for all distributions. We derive bounds that quantify the deviation of the regularised KKL to the original one, as well as concentration bounds. In addition, we provide a closed-form expression for the regularised KKL, specifically applicable when the distributions consist of finite sets of points, which makes it implementable. Furthermore, we derive a Wasserstein gradient descent scheme of the KKL divergence in the case of discrete distributions, and study empirically its properties to transport a set of points to a target distribution.

Neural network sparsification is a promising avenue to save computational time and memory costs, especially in an age where many successful AI models are becoming too large to naively deploy on consumer hardware. While much work has focused on different weight pruning criteria, the overall sparsifiability of the network, i.e., its capacity to be pruned without quality loss, has often been overlooked. We present Sparsifiability via the Marginal likelihood (SpaM), a sparsification framework that highlights the effectiveness of using the Bayesian marginal likelihood in conjunction with sparsity-inducing priors for making neural networks more sparsifiable. Our approach implements an automatic Occam's razor that selects the most sparsifiable model that still explains the data well, both for structured and unstructured sparsification. In addition, we demonstrate that the pre-computed posterior precision from the Laplace approximation can be re-used to define a cheap pruning criterion, which outperforms many existing (more expensive) approaches. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework, especially at high sparsity levels, across a range of different neural network architectures and datasets.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a crucial but challenging task in many high-dimensional learning problems to increase the confidence of a given predictor. We develop a new data-driven approach for UQ in regression that applies both to classical optimization approaches such as the LASSO as well as to neural networks. One of the most notable UQ techniques is the debiased LASSO, which modifies the LASSO to allow for the construction of asymptotic confidence intervals by decomposing the estimation error into a Gaussian and an asymptotically vanishing bias component. However, in real-world problems with finite-dimensional data, the bias term is often too significant to disregard, resulting in overly narrow confidence intervals. Our work rigorously addresses this issue and derives a data-driven adjustment that corrects the confidence intervals for a large class of predictors by estimating the means and variances of the bias terms from training data, exploiting high-dimensional concentration phenomena. This gives rise to non-asymptotic confidence intervals, which can help avoid overestimating certainty in critical applications such as MRI diagnosis. Importantly, our analysis extends beyond sparse regression to data-driven predictors like neural networks, enhancing the reliability of model-based deep learning. Our findings bridge the gap between established theory and the practical applicability of such methods.

Given time series data, how can we answer questions like ``what will happen in the future?'' and ``how did we get here?'' These sorts of probabilistic inference questions are challenging when observations are high-dimensional. In this paper, we show how these questions can have compact, closed form solutions in terms of learned representations. The key idea is to apply a variant of contrastive learning to time series data. Prior work already shows that the representations learned by contrastive learning encode a probability ratio. By extending prior work to show that the marginal distribution over representations is Gaussian, we can then prove that joint distribution of representations is also Gaussian. Taken together, these results show that representations learned via temporal contrastive learning follow a Gauss-Markov chain, a graphical model where inference (e.g., prediction, planning) over representations corresponds to inverting a low-dimensional matrix. In one special case, inferring intermediate representations will be equivalent to interpolating between the learned representations. We validate our theory using numerical simulations on tasks up to 46-dimensions.

Estimating mutual information accurately is pivotal across diverse applications, from machine learning to communications and biology, enabling us to gain insights into the inner mechanisms of complex systems. Yet, dealing with high-dimensional data presents a formidable challenge, due to its size and the presence of intricate relationships. Recently proposed neural methods employing variational lower bounds on the mutual information have gained prominence. However, these approaches suffer from either high bias or high variance, as the sample size and the structure of the loss function directly influence the training process. In this paper, we propose a novel class of discriminative mutual information estimators based on the variational representation of the $f$-divergence. We investigate the impact of the permutation function used to obtain the marginal training samples and present a novel architectural solution based on derangements. The proposed estimator is flexible since it exhibits an excellent bias/variance trade-off. The comparison with state-of-the-art neural estimators, through extensive experimentation within established reference scenarios, shows that our approach offers higher accuracy and lower complexity.

This paper introduces an innovative approach to classification called Credal Deep Ensembles (CreDEs), namely, ensembles of novel Credal-Set Neural Networks (CreNets). CreNets are trained to predict a lower and an upper probability bound for each class, which, in turn, determine a convex set of probabilities (credal set) on the class set. The training employs a loss inspired by distributionally robust optimization which simulates the potential divergence of the test distribution from the training distribution, in such a way that the width of the predicted probability interval reflects the epistemic uncertainty about the future data distribution. Ensembles can be constructed by training multiple CreNets, each associated with a different random seed, and averaging the outputted intervals. Extensive experiments are conducted on various out-of-distributions (OOD) detection benchmarks (CIFAR10/100 vs SVHN/Tiny-ImageNet, CIFAR10 vs CIFAR10-C, ImageNet vs ImageNet-O) and using different network architectures (ResNet50, VGG16, and ViT Base). Compared to Deep Ensemble baselines, CreDEs demonstrate higher test accuracy, lower expected calibration error, and significantly improved epistemic uncertainty estimation.

Bayesian optimization is a technique for efficiently optimizing unknown functions in a black-box manner. To handle practical settings where gathering data requires use of finite resources, it is desirable to explicitly incorporate function evaluation costs into Bayesian optimization policies. To understand how to do so, we develop a previously-unexplored connection between cost-aware Bayesian optimization and the Pandora's Box problem, a decision problem from economics. The Pandora's Box problem admits a Bayesian-optimal solution based on an expression called the Gittins index, which can be reinterpreted as an acquisition function. We study the use of this acquisition function for cost-aware Bayesian optimization, and demonstrate empirically that it performs well, particularly in medium-high dimensions. We further show that this performance carries over to classical Bayesian optimization without explicit evaluation costs. Our work constitutes a first step towards integrating techniques from Gittins index theory into Bayesian optimization.

Relative entropy coding (REC) algorithms encode a random sample following a target distribution $Q$, using a coding distribution $P$ shared between the sender and receiver. Sadly, general REC algorithms suffer from prohibitive encoding times, at least on the order of $2^{D_{\text{KL}}[Q||P]}$, and faster algorithms are limited to very specific settings. This work addresses this issue by introducing a REC scheme utilizing space partitioning to reduce runtime in practical scenarios. We provide theoretical analyses of our method and demonstrate its effectiveness with both toy examples and practical applications. Notably, our method successfully handles REC tasks with $D_{\text{KL}}[Q||P]$ about three times greater than what previous methods can manage, and reduces the bitrate by approximately 5-15\% in VAE-based lossless compression on MNIST and INR-based lossy compression on CIFAR-10, compared to previous methods, significantly improving the practicality of REC for neural compression.