NeurIPS 2024 论文列表

Linear causal models are important tools for modeling causal dependencies and yet in practice, only a subset of the variables can be observed. In this paper, we examine the parameter identifiability of these models by investigating whether the edge coefficients can be recovered given the causal structure and partially observed data. Our setting is more general than that of prior research—we allow all variables, including both observed and latent ones, to be flexibly related, and we consider the coefficients of all edges, whereas most existing works focus only on the edges between observed variables. Theoretically, we identify three types of indeterminacy for the parameters in partially observed linear causal models. We then provide graphical conditions that are sufficient for all parameters to be identifiable and show that some of them are provably necessary. Methodologically, we propose a novel likelihood-based parameter estimation method that addresses the variance indeterminacy of latent variables in a specific way and can asymptotically recover the underlying parameters up to trivial indeterminacy. Empirical studies on both synthetic and real-world datasets validate our identifiability theory and the effectiveness of the proposed method in the finite-sample regime.

Causal models are crucial for understanding complex systems and identifying causal relationships among variables. Even though causal models are extremely popular, conditional probability calculation of formulas involving interventions pose significant challenges. In case of Causal Bayesian Networks (CBNs), Pearl assumes autonomy of mechanisms that determine interventions to calculate a range of probabilities. We show that by making simple yet often realistic independence assumptions, it is possible to uniquely estimate the probability of an interventional formula (including the well-studied notions of probability of sufficiency and necessity). We discuss when these assumptions are appropriate. Importantly, in many cases of interest, when the assumptions are appropriate, these probability estimates can be evaluated using observational data, which carries immense significance in scenarios where conducting experiments is impractical or unfeasible.

Identifying causal effects is a key problem of interest across many disciplines. The two long-standing approaches to estimate causal effects are observational and experimental (randomized) studies. Observational studies can suffer from unmeasured confounding, which may render the causal effects unidentifiable. On the other hand, direct experiments on the target variable may be too costly or even infeasible to conduct. A middle ground between these two approaches is to estimate the causal effect of interest through proxy experiments, which are conducted on variables with a lower cost to intervene on compared to the main target. In an earlier work, we studied this setting and demonstrated that the problem of designing the optimal (minimum-cost) experiment for causal effect identification is NP-complete and provided a naive algorithm that may require solving exponentially many NP-hard problems as a sub-routine in the worst case. In this work, we provide a few reformulations of the problem that allow for designing significantly more efficient algorithms to solve it as witnessed by our extensive simulations. Additionally, we study the closely-related problem of designing experiments that enable us to identify a given effect through valid adjustments sets.

Recent Large Vision Language Models (LVLMs) present remarkable zero-shot conversational and reasoning capabilities given multimodal queries. Nevertheless, they suffer from object hallucination, a phenomenon where LVLMs are prone to generate textual responses not factually aligned with image inputs. Our pilot study reveals that object hallucination is closely tied with Rotary Position Encoding (RoPE), a widely adopted positional dependency modeling design in existing LVLMs. Due to the long-term decay in RoPE, LVLMs tend to hallucinate more when relevant visual cues are distant from instruction tokens in the multimodal input sequence, Additionally, we observe a similar effect when reversing the sequential order of visual tokens during multimodal alignment. Our tests indicate that long-term decay in RoPE poses challenges to LVLMs while capturing visual-instruction interactions across long distances. We propose Concentric Causal Attention (CCA), a simple yet effective positional alignment strategy that mitigates the impact of RoPE long-term decay in LVLMs by naturally reducing relative distance between visual and instruction tokens. With CCA, visual tokens can better interact with instruction tokens, thereby enhancing model's perception capability and alleviating object hallucination. Without bells and whistles, our positional alignment method surpasses existing hallucination mitigation strategies by large margins on multiple object hallucination benchmarks.

Intent learning, which aims to learn users' intents for user understanding and item recommendation, has become a hot research spot in recent years. However, existing methods suffer from complex and cumbersome alternating optimization, limiting performance and scalability. To this end, we propose a novel intent learning method termed \underline{ELCRec}, by unifying behavior representation learning into an \underline{E}nd-to-end \underline{L}earnable \underline{C}lustering framework, for effective and efficient \underline{Rec}ommendation. Concretely, we encode user behavior sequences and initialize the cluster centers (latent intents) as learnable neurons. Then, we design a novel learnable clustering module to separate different cluster centers, thus decoupling users' complex intents. Meanwhile, it guides the network to learn intents from behaviors by forcing behavior embeddings close to cluster centers. This allows simultaneous optimization of recommendation and clustering via mini-batch data. Moreover, we propose intent-assisted contrastive learning by using cluster centers as self-supervision signals, further enhancing mutual promotion. Both experimental results and theoretical analyses demonstrate the superiority of ELCRec from six perspectives. Compared to the runner-up, ELCRec improves NDCG@5 by 8.9\% and reduces computational costs by 22.5\% on the Beauty dataset. Furthermore, due to the scalability and universal applicability, we deploy this method on the industrial recommendation system with 130 million page views and achieve promising results. The codes are available on GitHub\footnote{https://github.com/yueliu1999/ELCRec}. A collection (papers, codes, datasets) of deep group recommendation/intent learning methods is available on GitHub\footnote{https://github.com/yueliu1999/Awesome-Deep-Group-Recommendation}.

The study of cells and their responses to genetic or chemical perturbations promises to accelerate the discovery of therapeutics targets. However, designing adequate and insightful models for such data is difficult because the response of a cell to perturbations essentially depends on contextual covariates (e.g., genetic background or type of the cell). There is therefore a need for models that can identify interactions between drugs and contextual covariates. This is crucial for discovering therapeutics targets, as such interactions may reveal drugs that affect certain cell types but not others. We tackle this problem with a novel Factorized Causal Representation (FCR) learning method, an identifiable deep generative model that reveals causal structure in single-cell perturbation data from several cell lines. FCR learns multiple cellular representations that are disentangled, comprised of covariate-specific (Z_x), treatment-specific (Z_t) and interaction-specific (Z_tx) representations. Based on recent advances of non-linear ICA theory, we prove the component-wise identifiability of Z_tx and block-wise identifiability of Z_t and Z_x. Then, we present our implementation of FCR, and empirically demonstrate that FCR outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in various tasks across four single-cell datasets.

Identifying the features learned by neural networks is a core challenge in mechanistic interpretability. Sparse autoencoders (SAEs), which learn a sparse, overcomplete dictionary that reconstructs a network's internal activations, have been used to identify these features. However, SAEs may learn more about the structure of the datatset than the computational structure of the network. There is therefore only indirect reason to believe that the directions found in these dictionaries are functionally important to the network. We propose end-to-end (e2e) sparse dictionary learning, a method for training SAEs that ensures the features learned are functionally important by minimizing the KL divergence between the output distributions of the original model and the model with SAE activations inserted. Compared to standard SAEs, e2e SAEs offer a Pareto improvement: They explain more network performance, require fewer total features, and require fewer simultaneously active features per datapoint, all with no cost to interpretability. We explore geometric and qualitative differences between e2e SAE features and standard SAE features. E2e dictionary learning brings us closer to methods that can explain network behavior concisely and accurately. We release our library for training e2e SAEs and reproducing our analysis at https://github.com/ApolloResearch/e2e_sae.

Covariate adjustment, also known as back-door adjustment, is a fundamental tool in causal inference. Although a sound and complete graphical identification criterion, known as the adjustment criterion (Shpitser, 2010), exists for static contexts, sequential contexts present challenges. Current practices, such as the sequential back-door adjustment (Pearl, 1995) or multi-outcome sequential back-door adjustment (Jung, 2020), are sound but incomplete; i.e., there are graphical scenarios where the causal effect is expressible via covariate adjustment, yet these criteria do not cover. In this paper, we exemplify this incompleteness and then present the *sequential adjustment criterion*, a sound and complete criterion for sequential covariate adjustment. We provide a constructive sequential adjustment criterion that identifies a set that satisfies the sequential adjustment criterion if and only if the causal effect can be expressed as a sequential covariate adjustment. Finally, we present an algorithm for identifying a *minimal* sequential covariate adjustment set, which optimizes efficiency by ensuring that no unnecessary vertices are included.

The collected data in recommender systems generally suffers selection bias. Considerable works are proposed to address selection bias induced by observed user and item features, but they fail when hidden features (e.g., user age or salary) that affect both user selection mechanism and feedback exist, which is called hidden confounding. To tackle this issue, methods based on sensitivity analysis and leveraging a few randomized controlled trial (RCT) data for model calibration are proposed. However, the former relies on strong assumptions of hidden confounding strength, whereas the latter relies on the expensive RCT data, thereby limiting their applicability in real-world scenarios. In this paper, we propose to employ heterogeneous observational data to address hidden confounding, wherein some data is subject to hidden confounding while the remaining is not. We argue that such setup is more aligned with practical scenarios, especially when some users do not have complete personal information (thus assumed with hidden confounding), while others do have (thus assumed without hidden confounding). To achieve unbiased learning, we propose a novel meta-learning based debiasing method called MetaDebias. This method explicitly models oracle error imputation and hidden confounding bias, and utilizes bi-level optimization for model training. Extensive experiments on three public datasets validate our method achieves state-of-the-art performance in the presence of hidden confounding, regardless of RCT data availability.

Understanding treatment effect heterogeneity is vital for scientific and policy research. However, identifying and evaluating heterogeneous treatment effects pose significant challenges due to the typically unknown subgroup structure. Recently, a novel approach, causal k-means clustering, has emerged to assess heterogeneity of treatment effect by applying the k-means algorithm to unknown counterfactual regression functions. In this paper, we expand upon this framework by integrating hierarchical and density-based clustering algorithms. We propose plug-in estimators which are simple and readily implementable using off-the-shelf algorithms. Unlike k-means clustering, which requires the margin condition, our proposed estimators do not rely on strong structural assumptions on the outcome process. We go on to study their rate of convergence, and show that under the minimal regularity conditions, the additional cost of causal clustering is essentially the estimation error of the outcome regression functions. Our findings significantly extend the capabilities of the causal clustering framework, thereby contributing to the progression of methodologies for identifying homogeneous subgroups in treatment response, consequently facilitating more nuanced and targeted interventions. The proposed methods also open up new avenues for clustering with generic pseudo-outcomes. We explore finite sample properties via simulation, and illustrate the proposed methods in voting and employment projection datasets.

We study causal effect estimation in a setting where the data are not i.i.d.$\ $(independent and identically distributed). We focus on exchangeable data satisfying an assumption of independent causal mechanisms. Traditional causal effect estimation frameworks, e.g., relying on structural causal models and do-calculus, are typically limited to i.i.d. data and do not extend to more general exchangeable generative processes, which naturally arise in multi-environment data. To address this gap, we develop a generalized framework for exchangeable data and introduce a truncated factorization formula that facilitates both the identification and estimation of causal effects in our setting. To illustrate potential applications, we introduce a causal Pólya urn model and demonstrate how intervention propagates effects in exchangeable data settings. Finally, we develop an algorithm that performs simultaneous causal discovery and effect estimation given multi-environment data.

Offline model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) enhances data efficiency by utilizing pre-collected datasets to learn models and policies, especially in scenarios where exploration is costly or infeasible. Nevertheless, its performance often suffers from the objective mismatch between model and policy learning, resulting in inferior performance despite accurate model predictions. This paper first identifies the primary source of this mismatch comes from the underlying confounders present in offline data for MBRL. Subsequently, we introduce **B**ilin**E**ar **CAUS**al r**E**presentation (BECAUSE), an algorithm to capture causal representation for both states and actions to reduce the influence of the distribution shift, thus mitigating the objective mismatch problem. Comprehensive evaluations on 18 tasks that vary in data quality and environment context demonstrate the superior performance of BECAUSE over existing offline RL algorithms. We show the generalizability and robustness of BECAUSE under fewer samples or larger numbers of confounders. Additionally, we offer theoretical analysis of BECAUSE to prove its error bound and sample efficiency when integrating causal representation into offline MBRL. See more details in our project page: [https://sites.google.com/view/be-cause](https://sites.google.com/view/be-cause).

Accurate estimation of treatment effects is essential for decision-making across various scientific fields. This task, however, becomes challenging in areas like social sciences and online marketplaces, where treating one experimental unit can influence outcomes for others through direct or indirect interactions. Such interference can lead to biased treatment effect estimates, particularly when the structure of these interactions is unknown. We address this challenge by introducing a new class of estimators based on causal message-passing, specifically designed for settings with pervasive, unknown interference. Our estimator draws on information from the sample mean and variance of unit outcomes and treatments over time, enabling efficient use of observed data to estimate the evolution of the system state. Concretely, we construct non-linear features from the moments of unit outcomes and treatments and then learn a function that maps these features to future mean and variance of unit outcomes. This allows for the estimation of the treatment effect over time. Extensive simulations across multiple domains, using synthetic and real network data, demonstrate the efficacy of our approach in estimating total treatment effect dynamics, even in cases where interference exhibits non-monotonic behavior in the probability of treatment.

Canonical work handling distribution shifts typically necessitates an entire target distribution that lands inside the training distribution. However, practical scenarios often involve only a handful target samples, potentially lying outside the training support, which requires the capability of extrapolation. In this work, we aim to provide a theoretical understanding of when extrapolation is possible and offer principled methods to achieve it without requiring an on-support target distribution. To this end, we formulate the extrapolation problem with a latent-variable model that embodies the minimal change principle in causal mechanisms. Under this formulation, we cast the extrapolation problem into a latent-variable identification problem. We provide realistic conditions on shift properties and the estimation objectives that lead to identification even when only one off-support target sample is available, tackling the most challenging scenarios. Our theory reveals the intricate interplay between the underlying manifold's smoothness and the shift properties. We showcase how our theoretical results inform the design of practical adaptation algorithms. Through experiments on both synthetic and real-world data, we validate our theoretical findings and their practical implications.

Causal reasoning capability is critical in advancing large language models (LLMs) towards artificial general intelligence (AGI). While versatile LLMs appear to have demonstrated capabilities in understanding contextual causality and providing responses that obey the laws of causality, it remains unclear whether they perform genuine causal reasoning akin to humans. However, current evidence indicates the contrary. Specifically, LLMs are only capable of performing shallow (level-1) causal reasoning, primarily attributed to the causal knowledge embedded in their parameters, but they lack the capacity for genuine human-like (level-2) causal reasoning. To support this hypothesis, methodologically, we delve into the autoregression mechanism of transformer-based LLMs, revealing that it is not inherently causal. Empirically, we introduce a new causal Q&A benchmark named CausalProbe 2024, whose corpus is fresh and nearly unseen for the studied LLMs. Empirical results show a significant performance drop on CausalProbe 2024 compared to earlier benchmarks, indicating that LLMs primarily engage in level-1 causal reasoning.To bridge the gap towards level-2 causal reasoning, we draw inspiration from the fact that human reasoning is usually facilitated by general knowledge and intended goals. Inspired by this, we propose G$^2$-Reasoner, a LLM causal reasoning method that incorporates general knowledge and goal-oriented prompts into LLMs' causal reasoning processes. Experiments demonstrate that G$^2$-Reasoner significantly enhances LLMs' causal reasoning capability, particularly in fresh and fictitious contexts. This work sheds light on a new path for LLMs to advance towards genuine causal reasoning, going beyond level-1 and making strides towards level-2.