NeurIPS 2024 论文列表

Consider a data-generation process that transforms low-dimensional _latent_ causally-related variables to high-dimensional _observed_ variables. Causal representation learning (CRL) is the process of using the observed data to recover the latent causal variables and the causal structure among them. Despite the multitude of identifiability results under various interventional CRL settings, the existing guarantees apply exclusively to the _infinite-sample_ regime (i.e., infinite observed samples). This paper establishes the first sample-complexity analysis for the finite-sample regime, in which the interactions between the number of observed samples and probabilistic guarantees on recovering the latent variables and structure are established. This paper focuses on _general_ latent causal models, stochastic _soft_ interventions, and a linear transformation from the latent to the observation space. The identifiability results ensure graph recovery up to ancestors and latent variables recovery up to mixing with parent variables. Specifically, ${\cal O}((\log \frac{1}{\delta})^{4})$ samples suffice for latent graph recovery up to ancestors with probability $1 - \delta$, and ${\cal O}((\frac{1}{\epsilon}\log \frac{1}{\delta})^{4})$ samples suffice for latent causal variables recovery that is $\epsilon$ close to the identifiability class with probability $1 - \delta$.

Detecting and measuring confounding effects from data is a key challenge in causal inference. Existing methods frequently assume causal sufficiency, disregarding the presence of unobserved confounding variables. Causal sufficiency is both unrealistic and empirically untestable. Additionally, existing methods make strong parametric assumptions about the underlying causal generative process to guarantee the identifiability of confounding variables. Relaxing the causal sufficiency and parametric assumptions and leveraging recent advancements in causal discovery and confounding analysis with non-i.i.d. data, we propose a comprehensive approach for detecting and measuring confounding. We consider various definitions of confounding and introduce tailored methodologies to achieve three objectives: (i) detecting and measuring confounding among a set of variables, (ii) separating observed and unobserved confounding effects, and (iii) understanding the relative strengths of confounding bias between different sets of variables. We present useful properties of a confounding measure and present measures that satisfy those properties. Our empirical results support the usefulness of the proposed measures.

Fairness metrics are a core tool in the fair machine learning literature (FairML), used to determine that ML models are, in some sense, “fair.” Real-world data, however, are typically plagued by various measurement biases and other violated assumptions, which can render fairness assessments meaningless. We adapt tools from causal sensitivity analysis to the FairML context, providing a general frame- work which (1) accommodates effectively any combination of fairness metric and bias that can be posed in the “oblivious setting”; (2) allows researchers to inves- tigate combinations of biases, resulting in non-linear sensitivity; and (3) enables flexible encoding of domain-specific constraints and assumptions. Employing this framework, we analyze the sensitivity of the most common parity metrics under 3 varieties of classifier across 14 canonical fairness datasets. Our analysis reveals the striking fragility of fairness assessments to even minor dataset biases. We show that causal sensitivity analysis provides a powerful and necessary toolkit for gauging the informativeness of parity metric evaluations. Our repository is \href{https://github.com/Jakefawkes/fragile_fair}{available here}.

We consider the challenging problem of estimating causal effects from purely observational data in the bi-directional Mendelian randomization (MR), where some invalid instruments, as well as unmeasured confounding, usually exist. To address this problem, most existing methods attempt to find proper valid instrumental variables (IVs) for the target causal effect by expert knowledge or by assuming that the causal model is a one-directional MR model. As such, in this paper, we first theoretically investigate the identification of the bi-directional MR from observational data. In particular, we provide necessary and sufficient conditions under which valid IV sets are correctly identified such that the bi-directional MR model is identifiable, including the causal directions of a pair of phenotypes (i.e., the treatment and outcome). Moreover, based on the identification theory, we develop a cluster fusion-like method to discover valid IV sets and estimate the causal effects of interest. We theoretically demonstrate the correctness of the proposed algorithm. Experimental results show the effectiveness of our method for estimating causal effects in both one-directional and bi-directional MR models.

Estimating causal quantities from observational data is crucial for understanding the safety and effectiveness of medical treatments. However, to make reliable inferences, medical practitioners require not only estimating averaged causal quantities, such as the conditional average treatment effect, but also understanding the randomness of the treatment effect as a random variable. This randomness is referred to as aleatoric uncertainty and is necessary for understanding the probability of benefit from treatment or quantiles of the treatment effect. Yet, the aleatoric uncertainty of the treatment effect has received surprisingly little attention in the causal machine learning community. To fill this gap, we aim to quantify the aleatoric uncertainty of the treatment effect at the covariate-conditional level, namely, the conditional distribution of the treatment effect (CDTE). Unlike average causal quantities, the CDTE is not point identifiable without strong additional assumptions. As a remedy, we employ partial identification to obtain sharp bounds on the CDTE and thereby quantify the aleatoric uncertainty of the treatment effect. We then develop a novel, orthogonal learner for the bounds on the CDTE, which we call AU-learner. We further show that our AU-learner has several strengths in that it satisfies Neyman-orthogonality and, thus, quasi-oracle efficiency. Finally, we propose a fully-parametric deep learning instantiation of our AU-learner.

Softmax Loss (SL) is widely applied in recommender systems (RS) and has demonstrated effectiveness. This work analyzes SL from a pairwise perspective, revealing two significant limitations: 1) the relationship between SL and conventional ranking metrics like DCG is not sufficiently tight; 2) SL is highly sensitive to false negative instances. Our analysis indicates that these limitations are primarily due to the use of the exponential function. To address these issues, this work extends SL to a new family of loss functions, termed Pairwise Softmax Loss (PSL), which replaces the exponential function in SL with other appropriate activation functions. While the revision is minimal, we highlight three merits of PSL: 1) it serves as a tighter surrogate for DCG with suitable activation functions; 2) it better balances data contributions; and 3) it acts as a specific BPR loss enhanced by Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO). We further validate the effectiveness and robustness of PSL through empirical experiments. The code is available at https://github.com/Tiny-Snow/IR-Benchmark.

Designing causal bandit algorithms depends on two central categories of assumptions: (i) the extent of information about the underlying causal graphs and (ii) the extent of information about interventional statistical models. There have been extensive recent advances in dispensing with assumptions on either category. These include assuming known graphs but unknown interventional distributions, and the converse setting of assuming unknown graphs but access to restrictive hard/$\operatorname{do}$ interventions, which removes the stochasticity and ancestral dependencies. Nevertheless, the problem in its general form, i.e., _unknown_ graph and _unknown_ stochastic intervention models, remains open. This paper addresses this problem and establishes that in a graph with $N$ nodes, maximum in-degree $d$ and maximum causal path length $L$, after $T$ interaction rounds the regret upper bound scales as $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}((cd)^{L-\frac{1}{2}}\sqrt{T} + d + RN)$ where $c>1$ is a constant and $R$ is a measure of intervention power. A universal minimax lower bound is also established, which scales as $\Omega(d^{L-\frac{3}{2}}\sqrt{T})$. Importantly, the graph size $N$ has a diminishing effect on the regret as $T$ grows. These bounds have matching behavior in $T$, exponential dependence on $L$, and polynomial dependence on $d$ (with the gap $d\ $). On the algorithmic aspect, the paper presents a novel way of designing a computationally efficient CB algorithm, addressing a challenge that the existing CB algorithms using soft interventions face.

This work presents a modification of the self-attention dynamics proposed in Geshkovski et al to better reflect the practically relevant, causally masked attention used in transformer architectures for generative AI. This modification translates into an interacting particle system that cannot be interpreted as a mean-field gradient flow. Despite this loss of structure, we significantly strengthen the results of Geshkovski et al in this context: While previous rigorous results focused on cases where all three matrices (key, query, and value) were scaled identities, we prove asymptotic convergence to a single cluster for arbitrary key-query matrices and value matrix equal to the identity. Additionally, we establish a connection to the classical R\'enyi parking problem from combinatorial geometry to make initial theoretical steps towards demonstrating the existence of meta-stable states.

We study the identification of causal effects, motivated by two improvements to identifiability which can be attained if one knows that some variables in a causal graph are functionally determined by their parents (without needing to know the specific functions). First, an unidentifiable causal effect may become identifiable when certain variables are functional. Second, certain functional variables can be excluded from being observed without affecting the identifiability of a causal effect, which may significantly reduce the number of needed variables in observational data. Our results are largely based on an elimination procedure which removes functional variables from a causal graph while preserving key properties in the resulting causal graph, including the identifiability of causal effects.

Developing fair automated machine learning algorithms is critical in making safe and trustworthy decisions. Many causality-based fairness notions have been proposed to address the above issues by quantifying the causal connections between sensitive attributes and decisions, and when the true causal graph is fully known, certain algorithms that achieve interventional fairness have been proposed. However, when the true causal graph is unknown, it is still challenging to effectively and efficiently exploit partially directed acyclic graphs (PDAGs) to achieve interventional fairness. To exploit the PDAGs for achieving interventional fairness, previous methods have been built on variable selection or causal effect identification, but limited to reduced prediction accuracy or strong assumptions. In this paper, we propose a general min-max optimization framework that can achieve interventional fairness with promising prediction accuracy and can be extended to maximally oriented PDAGs (MPDAGs) with added background knowledge. Specifically, we first estimate all possible treatment effects of sensitive attributes on a given prediction model from all possible adjustment sets of sensitive attributes via an efficient local approach. Next, we propose to alternatively update the prediction model and possible estimated causal effects, where the prediction model is trained via a min-max loss to control the worst-case fairness violations. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets verify the superiority of our methods. To benefit the research community, we have released our project at https://github.com/haoxuanli-pku/NeurIPS24-Interventional-Fairness-with-PDAGs.

Causal disentanglement aims to learn about latent causal factors behind data, hold- ing the promise to augment existing representation learning methods in terms of interpretability and extrapolation. Recent advances establish identifiability results assuming that interventions on (single) latent factors are available; however, it re- mains debatable whether such assumptions are reasonable due to the inherent nature of intervening on latent variables. Accordingly, we reconsider the fundamentals and ask what can be learned using just observational data. We provide a precise characterization of latent factors that can be identified in nonlinear causal models with additive Gaussian noise and linear mixing, without any interventions or graphical restrictions. In particular, we show that the causal variables can be identified up to a _layer_-wise transformation and that further disen- tanglement is not possible. We transform these theoretical results into a practical algorithm consisting of solving a quadratic program over the score estimation of the observed data. We provide simulation results to support our theoretical guarantees and demonstrate that our algorithm can derive meaningful causal representations from purely observational data.

Modality differences have led to the development of heterogeneous architectures for vision and language models. While images typically require 2D non-causal modeling, texts utilize 1D causal modeling. This distinction poses significant challenges in constructing unified multi-modal models. This paper explores the feasibility of representing images using 1D causal modeling. We identify an "over-focus" issue in existing 1D causal vision models, where attention overly concentrates on a small proportion of visual tokens. The issue of "over-focus" hinders the model's ability to extract diverse visual features and to receive effective gradients for optimization. To address this, we propose De-focus Attention Networks, which employ learnable bandpass filters to create varied attention patterns. During training, large and scheduled drop path rates, and an auxiliary loss on globally pooled features for global understanding tasks are introduced. These two strategies encourage the model to attend to a broader range of tokens and enhance network optimization. Extensive experiments validate the efficacy of our approach, demonstrating that 1D causal visual representation can perform comparably to 2D non-causal representation in tasks such as global perception, dense prediction, and multi-modal understanding. Code shall be released.

Recent text-based causal methods attempt to mitigate confounding bias by estimating proxies of confounding variables that are partially or imperfectly measured from unstructured text data. These approaches, however, assume analysts have supervised labels of the confounders given text for a subset of instances, a constraint that is sometimes infeasible due to data privacy or annotation costs. In this work, we address settings in which an important confounding variable is completely unobserved. We propose a new causal inference method that uses two instances of pre-treatment text data, infers two proxies using two zero-shot models on the separate instances, and applies these proxies in the proximal g-formula. We prove, under certain assumptions about the instances of text and accuracy of the zero-shot predictions, that our method of inferring text-based proxies satisfies identification conditions of the proximal g-formula while other seemingly reasonable proposals do not. To address untestable assumptions associated with our method and the proximal g-formula, we further propose an odds ratio falsification heuristic that flags when to proceed with downstream effect estimation using the inferred proxies. We evaluate our method in synthetic and semi-synthetic settings---the latter with real-world clinical notes from MIMIC-III and open large language models for zero-shot prediction---and find that our method produces estimates with low bias. We believe that this text-based design of proxies allows for the use of proximal causal inference in a wider range of scenarios, particularly those for which obtaining suitable proxies from structured data is difficult.

Imitation learning enables an agent to learn from expert demonstrations when the performance measure is unknown and the reward signal is not specified. Standard imitation methods do not generally apply when the learner and the expert's sensory capabilities mismatch and demonstrations are contaminated with unobserved confounding bias. To address these challenges, recent advancements in causal imitation learning have been pursued. However, these methods often require access to underlying causal structures that might not always be available, posing practical challenges. In this paper, we investigate robust imitation learning within the framework of canonical Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) using partial identification, allowing the agent to achieve expert performance even when the system dynamics are not uniquely determined from the confounded expert demonstrations. Specifically, first, we theoretically demonstrate that when unobserved confounders (UCs) exist in an MDP, the learner is generally unable to imitate expert performance. We then explore imitation learning in partially identifiable settings --- either transition distribution or reward function is non-identifiable from the available data and knowledge. Augmenting the celebrated GAIL method (Ho \& Ermon, 2016), our analysis leads to two novel causal imitation algorithms that can obtain effective policies guaranteed to achieve expert performance.

Recommending out-of-vocabulary (OOV) items is a challenging problem since the in-vocabulary (IV) items have well-trained behavioral embeddings but the OOV items only have content features. Current OOV recommendation models often generate 'makeshift' embeddings for OOV items from content features and then jointly recommend with the `makeshift' OOV item embeddings and the behavioral IV item embeddings. However, merely using the 'makeshift' embedding will result in suboptimal recommendation performance due to the substantial gap between the content feature and the behavioral embeddings. To bridge the gap, we propose a novel **User Sequence IMagination (USIM)** fine-tuning framework, which first imagines the user sequences and then refines the generated OOV embeddings with the user behavioral embeddings. Specifically, we frame the user sequence imagination as a reinforcement learning problem and develop a recommendation-focused reward function to evaluate to what extent a user can help recommend the OOV items. Besides, we propose an embedding-driven transition function to model the embedding transition after imaging a user. USIM has been deployed on a prominent e-commerce platform for months, offering recommendations for millions of OOV items and billions of users. Extensive experiments demonstrate that USIM outperforms traditional generative models in OOV item recommendation performance across traditional collaborative filtering and GNN-based collaborative filtering models.

Causal Temporal Representation Learning (Ctrl) methods aim to identify the temporal causal dynamics of complex nonstationary temporal sequences. Despite the success of existing Ctrl methods, they require either directly observing the domain variables or assuming a Markov prior on them. Such requirements limit the application of these methods in real-world scenarios when we do not have such prior knowledge of the domain variables. To address this problem, this work adopts a sparse transition assumption, aligned with intuitive human understanding, and presents identifiability results from a theoretical perspective. In particular, we explore under what conditions on the significance of the variability of the transitions we can build a model to identify the distribution shifts. Based on the theoretical result, we introduce a novel framework, *Causal Temporal Representation Learning with Nonstationary Sparse Transition* (CtrlNS), designed to leverage the constraints on transition sparsity and conditional independence to reliably identify both distribution shifts and latent factors. Our experimental evaluations on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate significant improvements over existing baselines, highlighting the effectiveness of our approach.

Machine Learning and AI have the potential to transform data-driven scientific discovery, enabling accurate predictions for several scientific phenomena. As many scientific questions are inherently causal, this paper looks at the causal inference task of treatment effect estimation, where the outcome of interest is recorded in high-dimensional observations in a Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT). Despite being the simplest possible causal setting and a perfect fit for deep learning, we theoretically find that many common choices in the literature may lead to biased estimates. To test the practical impact of these considerations, we recorded ISTAnt, the first real-world benchmark for causal inference downstream tasks on high-dimensional observations as an RCT studying how garden ants (Lasius neglectus) respond to microparticles applied onto their colony members by hygienic grooming. Comparing 6 480 models fine-tuned from state-of-the-art visual backbones, we find that the sampling and modeling choices significantly affect the accuracy of the causal estimate, and that classification accuracy is not a proxy thereof. We further validated the analysis, repeating it on a synthetically generated visual data set controlling the causal model. Our results suggest that future benchmarks should carefully consider real downstream scientific questions, especially causal ones. Further, we highlight guidelines for representation learning methods to help answer causal questions in the sciences.

On User-Generated Content (UGC) platforms, recommendation algorithms significantly impact creators' motivation to produce content as they compete for algorithmically allocated user traffic. This phenomenon subtly shapes the volume and diversity of the content pool, which is crucial for the platform's sustainability. In this work, we demonstrate, both theoretically and empirically, that a purely relevance-driven policy with low exploration strength boosts short-term user satisfaction but undermines the long-term richness of the content pool. In contrast, a more aggressive exploration policy may slightly compromise user satisfaction but promote higher content creation volume. Our findings reveal a fundamental trade-off between immediate user satisfaction and overall content production on UGC platforms. Building on this finding, we propose an efficient optimization method to identify the optimal exploration strength, balancing user and creator engagement. Our model can serve as a pre-deployment audit tool for recommendation algorithms on UGC platforms, helping to align their immediate objectives with sustainable, long-term goals.

Evaluating observational estimators of causal effects demands information that is rarely available: unconfounded interventions and outcomes from the population of interest, created either by randomization or adjustment. As a result, it is customary to fall back on simulators when creating benchmark tasks. Simulators offer great control but are often too simplistic to make challenging tasks, either because they are hand-designed and lack the nuances of real-world data, or because they are fit to observational data without structural constraints. In this work, we propose a general, repeatable strategy for turning observational data into sequential structural causal models and challenging estimation tasks by following two simple principles: 1) fitting real-world data where possible, and 2) creating complexity by composing simple, hand-designed mechanisms. We implement these ideas in a highly configurable software package and apply it to the well-known Adult income data set to construct the IncomeSCM simulator. From this, we devise multiple estimation tasks and sample data sets to compare established estimators of causal effects. The tasks present a suitable challenge, with effect estimates varying greatly in quality between methods, despite similar performance in the modeling of factual outcomes, highlighting the need for dedicated causal estimators and model selection criteria.