NeurIPS 2023 论文列表

This work is dedicated to the algorithm design in a competitive framework, with the primary goal of learning a stable equilibrium. We consider the dynamic price competition between two firms operating within an opaque marketplace, where each firm lacks information about its competitor. The demand follows the multinomial logit (MNL) choice model, which depends on the consumers' observed price and their reference price, and consecutive periods in the repeated games are connected by reference price updates. We use the notion of stationary Nash equilibrium (SNE), defined as the fixed point of the equilibrium pricing policy for the single-period game, to simultaneously capture the long-run market equilibrium and stability. We propose the online projected gradient ascent algorithm (OPGA), where the firms adjust prices using the first-order derivatives of their log-revenues that can be obtained from the market feedback mechanism. Despite the absence of typical properties required for the convergence of online games, such as strong monotonicity and variational stability, we demonstrate that under diminishing step-sizes, the price and reference price paths generated by OPGA converge to the unique SNE, thereby achieving the no-regret learning and a stable market. Moreover, with appropriate step-sizes, we prove that this convergence exhibits a rate of $\mathcal{O}(1/t)$.

We study the problem of agnostic PAC reinforcement learning (RL): given a policy class $\Pi$, how many rounds of interaction with an unknown MDP (with a potentially large state and action space) are required to learn an $\epsilon$-suboptimal policy with respect to \(\Pi\)? Towards that end, we introduce a new complexity measure, called the \emph{spanning capacity}, that depends solely on the set \(\Pi\) and is independent of the MDP dynamics. With a generative model, we show that the spanning capacity characterizes PAC learnability for every policy class $\Pi$. However, for online RL, the situation is more subtle. We show there exists a policy class $\Pi$ with a bounded spanning capacity that requires a superpolynomial number of samples to learn. This reveals a surprising separation for agnostic learnability between generative access and online access models (as well as between deterministic/stochastic MDPs under online access). On the positive side, we identify an additional \emph{sunflower} structure which in conjunction with bounded spanning capacity enables statistically efficient online RL via a new algorithm called POPLER, which takes inspiration from classical importance sampling methods as well as recent developments for reachable-state identification and policy evaluation in reward-free exploration.

We study the fundamental mistake bound and sample complexity in the strategic classification, where agents can strategically manipulate their feature vector up to an extent in order to be predicted as positive. For example, given a classifier determining college admission, student candidates may try to take easier classes to improve their GPA, retake SAT and change schools in an effort to fool the classifier. *Ball manipulations* are a widely studied class of manipulations in the literature, where agents can modify their feature vector within a bounded radius ball. Unlike most prior work, our work consider manipulations to be *personalized*, meaning that agents can have different levels of manipulation abilities (e.g., varying radii for ball manipulations), and *unknown* to the learner. We formalize the learning problem in an interaction model where the learner first deploys a classifier and the agent manipulates the feature vector within their manipulation set to game the deployed classifier. We investigate various scenarios in terms of the information available to the learner during the interaction, such as observing the original feature vector before or after deployment, observing the manipulated feature vector, or not seeing either the original or the manipulated feature vector. We begin by providing online mistake bounds and PAC sample complexity in these scenarios for ball manipulations. We also explore non-ball manipulations and show that, even in the simplest scenario where both the original and the manipulated feature vectors are revealed, the mistake bounds and sample complexity are lower bounded by $\Omega(|\mathcal H|)$ when the target function belongs to a known class $\mathcal H$.

We propose the first online quantum algorithm for zero-sum games with $\widetilde O(1)$ regret under the game setting. Moreover, our quantum algorithm computes an $\varepsilon$-approximate Nash equilibrium of an $m \times n$ matrix zero-sum game in quantum time $\widetilde O(\sqrt{m+n}/\varepsilon^{2.5})$. Our algorithm uses standard quantum inputs and generates classical outputs with succinct descriptions, facilitating end-to-end applications. Technically, our online quantum algorithm "quantizes" classical algorithms based on the optimistic multiplicative weight update method. At the heart of our algorithm is a fast quantum multi-sampling procedure for the Gibbs sampling problem, which may be of independent interest.

For each of $T$ time steps, $m$ experts report probability distributions over $n$ outcomes; we wish to learn to aggregate these forecasts in a way that attains a no-regret guarantee. We focus on the fundamental and practical aggregation method known as *logarithmic pooling* -- a weighted average of log odds -- which is in a certain sense the optimal choice of pooling method if one is interested in minimizing log loss (as we take to be our loss function). We consider the problem of learning the best set of parameters (i.e. expert weights) in an online adversarial setting. We assume (by necessity) that the adversarial choices of outcomes and forecasts are consistent, in the sense that experts report calibrated forecasts. Imposing this constraint creates a (to our knowledge) novel semi-adversarial setting in which the adversary retains a large amount of flexibility. In this setting, we present an algorithm based on online mirror descent that learns expert weights in a way that attains $O(\sqrt{T} \log T)$ expected regret as compared with the best weights in hindsight.

We design replicable algorithms in the context of statistical clustering under the recently introduced notion of replicability from Impagliazzo et al. [2022]. According to this definition, a clustering algorithm is replicable if, with high probability, its output induces the exact same partition of the sample space after two executions on different inputs drawn from the same distribution, when its internal randomness is shared across the executions. We propose such algorithms for the statistical $k$-medians, statistical $k$-means, and statistical $k$-centers problems by utilizing approximation routines for their combinatorial counterparts in a black-box manner. In particular, we demonstrate a replicable $O(1)$-approximation algorithm for statistical Euclidean $k$-medians ($k$-means) with $\operatorname{poly}(d)$ sample complexity. We also describe an $O(1)$-approximation algorithm with an additional $O(1)$-additive error for statistical Euclidean $k$-centers, albeit with $\exp(d)$ sample complexity. In addition, we provide experiments on synthetic distributions in 2D using the $k$-means++ implementation from sklearn as a black-box that validate our theoretical results.

We initiate the study of smoothed analysis for the sequential probability assignment problem with contexts. We study information-theoretically optimal minmax rates as well as a framework for algorithmic reduction involving the maximum likelihood estimator oracle. Our approach establishes a general-purpose reduction from minimax rates for sequential probability assignment for smoothed adversaries to minimax rates for transductive learning. This leads to optimal (logarithmic) fast rates for parametric classes and classes with finite VC dimension. On the algorithmic front, we develop an algorithm that efficiently taps into the MLE oracle, for general classes of functions. We show that under general conditions this algorithmic approach yields sublinear regret.

General physical scene understanding requires more than simply localizing and recognizing objects -- it requires knowledge that objects can have different latent properties (e.g., mass or elasticity), and that those properties affect the outcome of physical events. While there has been great progress in physical and video prediction models in recent years, benchmarks to test their performance typically do not require an understanding that objects have individual physical properties, or at best test only those properties that are directly observable (e.g., size or color). This work proposes a novel dataset and benchmark, termed Physion++, that rigorously evaluates visual physical prediction in artificial systems under circumstances where those predictions rely on accurate estimates of the latent physical properties of objects in the scene. Specifically, we test scenarios where accurate prediction relies on estimates of properties such as mass, friction, elasticity, and deformability, and where the values of those properties can only be inferred by observing how objects move and interact with other objects or fluids. We evaluate the performance of a number of state-of-the-art prediction models that span a variety of levels of learning vs. built-in knowledge, and compare that performance to a set of human predictions. We find that models that have been trained using standard regimes and datasets do not spontaneously learn to make inferences about latent properties, but also that models that encode objectness and physical states tend to make better predictions. However, there is still a huge gap between all models and human performance, and all models' predictions correlate poorly with those made by humans, suggesting that no state-of-the-art model is learning to make physical predictions in a human-like way. These results show that current deep learning models that succeed in some settings nevertheless fail to achieve human-level physical prediction in other cases, especially those where latent property inference is required. Project page: https://dingmyu.github.io/physion_v2/

Cooperative communication plays a fundamental role in theories of human-human interaction--cognition, culture, development, language, etc.--as well as human-robot interaction. The core challenge in cooperative communication is the problem of common ground: having enough shared knowledge and understanding to successfully communicate. Prior models of cooperative communication, however, uniformly assume the strongest form of common ground, perfect and complete knowledge sharing, and, therefore, fail to capture the core challenge of cooperative communication. We propose a general theory of cooperative communication that is mathematically principled and explicitly defines a spectrum of common ground possibilities, going well beyond that of perfect and complete knowledge sharing, on spaces that permit arbitrary representations of data and hypotheses. Our framework is a strict generalization of prior models of cooperative communication. After considering a parametric form of common ground and viewing the data selection and hypothesis inference processes of communication as encoding and decoding, we establish a connection to variational autoencoding, a powerful model in modern machine learning. Finally, we carry out a series of empirical simulations to support and elaborate on our theoretical results.

Online pricing has been the focus of extensive research in recent years, particularly in the context of selling an item to sequentially arriving users. However, what if a provider wants to maximize revenue by selling multiple items to multiple users in each round? This presents a complex problem, as the provider must intelligently offer the items to those users who value them the most without exceeding their highest acceptable prices. In this study, we tackle this challenge by designing online algorithms that can efficiently offer and price items while learning user valuations from accept/reject feedback. We focus on three user valuation models (fixed valuations, random experiences, and random valuations) and provide algorithms with nearly-optimal revenue regret guarantees. In particular, for any market setting with $N$ users, $M$ items, and load $L$ (which roughly corresponds to the maximum number of simultaneous allocations possible), our algorithms achieve regret of order $O(NM\log\log(LT))$ under fixed valuations model, $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{NMLT})$ under random experiences model and $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{NMLT})$ under random valuations model in $T$ rounds.

We consider online prediction of a binary sequence with expert advice. For this setting, we devise label-efficient forecasting algorithms, which use a selective sampling scheme that enables collecting much fewer labels than standard procedures. For the general case without a perfect expert, we prove best-of-both-worlds guarantees, demonstrating that the proposed forecasting algorithm always queries sufficiently many labels in the worst case to obtain optimal regret guarantees, while simultaneously querying much fewer labels in more benign settings. Specifically, for a scenario where one expert is strictly better than the others in expectation, we show that the label complexity of the label-efficient forecaster is roughly upper-bounded by the square root of the number of rounds. Finally, we present numerical experiments empirically showing that the normalized regret of the label-efficient forecaster can asymptotically match known minimax rates for pool-based active learning, suggesting it can optimally adapt to benign settings.

Minimising upper bounds on the population risk or the generalisation gap has been widely used in structural risk minimisation (SRM) -- this is in particular at the core of PAC-Bayesian learning. Despite its successes and unfailing surge of interest in recent years, a limitation of the PAC-Bayesian framework is that most bounds involve a Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence term (or its variations), which might exhibit erratic behavior and fail to capture the underlying geometric structure of the learning problem -- hence restricting its use in practical applications. As a remedy, recent studies have attempted to replace the KL divergence in the PAC-Bayesian bounds with the Wasserstein distance. Even though these bounds alleviated the aforementioned issues to a certain extent, they either hold in expectation, are for bounded losses, or are nontrivial to minimize in an SRM framework. In this work, we contribute to this line of research and prove novel Wasserstein distance-based PAC-Bayesian generalisation bounds for both batch learning with independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) data, and online learning with potentially non-i.i.d. data. Contrary to previous art, our bounds are stronger in the sense that (i) they hold with high probability, (ii) they apply to unbounded (potentially heavy-tailed) losses, and (iii) they lead to optimizable training objectives that can be used in SRM. As a result we derive novel Wasserstein-based PAC-Bayesian learning algorithms and we illustrate their empirical advantage on a variety of experiments.

In this work we consider an online learning problem, called Online $k$-Clustering with Moving Costs, at which a learner maintains a set of $k$ facilities over $T$ rounds so as to minimize the connection cost of an adversarially selected sequence of clients. The learner is informed on the positions of the clients at each round $t$ only after its facility-selection and can use this information to update its decision in the next round. However, updating the facility positions comes with an additional moving cost based on the moving distance of the facilities. We present the first $\mathcal{O}(\log n)$-regret polynomial-time online learning algorithm guaranteeing that the overall cost (connection $+$ moving) is at most $\mathcal{O}(\log n)$ times the time-averaged connection cost of the best fixed solution. Our work improves on the recent result of (Fotakis et al., 2021) establishing $\mathcal{O}(k)$-regret guarantees only on the connection cost.

Online convex optimization (OCO) is a widely used framework in online learning. In each round, the learner chooses a decision in a convex set and an adversary chooses a convex loss function, and then the learner suffers the loss associated with their current decision. However, in many applications the learner's loss depends not only on the current decision but on the entire history of decisions until that point. The OCO framework and its existing generalizations do not capture this, and they can only be applied to many settings of interest after a long series of approximation arguments. They also leave open the question of whether the dependence on memory is tight because there are no non-trivial lower bounds. In this work we introduce a generalization of the OCO framework, ``Online Convex Optimization with Unbounded Memory'', that captures long-term dependence on past decisions. We introduce the notion of $p$-effective memory capacity, $H_p$, that quantifies the maximum influence of past decisions on present losses. We prove an $O(\sqrt{H_p T})$ upper bound on the policy regret and a matching (worst-case) lower bound. As a special case, we prove the first non-trivial lower bound for OCO with finite memory~\citep{anavaHM2015online}, which could be of independent interest, and also improve existing upper bounds. We demonstrate the broad applicability of our framework by using it to derive regret bounds, and to improve and simplify existing regret bound derivations, for a variety of online learning problems including online linear control and an online variant of performative prediction.

Designing effective policies for the online 3D bin packing problem (3D-BPP) has been a long-standing challenge, primarily due to the unpredictable nature of incoming box sequences and stringent physical constraints. While current deep reinforcement learning (DRL) methods for online 3D-BPP have shown promising results in optimizing average performance over an underlying box sequence distribution, they often fail in real-world settings where some worst-case scenarios can materialize. Standard robust DRL algorithms tend to overly prioritize optimizing the worst-case performance at the expense of performance under normal problem instance distribution. To address these issues, we first introduce a permutation-based attacker to investigate the practical robustness of both DRL-based and heuristic methods proposed for solving online 3D-BPP. Then, we propose an adjustable robust reinforcement learning (AR2L) framework that allows efficient adjustment of robustness weights to achieve the desired balance of the policy's performance in average and worst-case environments. Specifically, we formulate the objective function as a weighted sum of expected and worst-case returns, and derive the lower performance bound by relating to the return under a mixture dynamics. To realize this lower bound, we adopt an iterative procedure that searches for the associated mixture dynamics and improves the corresponding policy. We integrate this procedure into two popular robust adversarial algorithms to develop the exact and approximate AR2L algorithms. Experiments demonstrate that AR2L is versatile in the sense that it improves policy robustness while maintaining an acceptable level of performance for the nominal case.

The problem of designing learners that provide guarantees that their predictions are provably correct is of increasing importance in machine learning. However, learning theoretic guarantees have only been considered in very specific settings. In this work, we consider the design and analysis of reliable learners in challenging test-time environments as encountered in modern machine learning problems: namely adversarial test-time attacks (in several variations) and natural distribution shifts. In this work, we provide a reliable learner with provably optimal guarantees in such settings. We discuss computationally feasible implementations of the learner and further show that our algorithm achieves strong positive performance guarantees on several natural examples: for example, linear separators under log-concave distributions or smooth boundary classifiers under smooth probability distributions.

In this paper, we study the Tiered Reinforcement Learning setting, a parallel transfer learning framework, where the goal is to transfer knowledge from the low-tier (source) task to the high-tier (target) task to reduce the exploration risk of the latter while solving the two tasks in parallel. Unlike previous work, we do not assume the low-tier and high-tier tasks share the same dynamics or reward functions, and focus on robust knowledge transfer without prior knowledge on the task similarity. We identify a natural and necessary condition called the ``Optimal Value Dominance'' for our objective. Under this condition, we propose novel online learning algorithms such that, for the high-tier task, it can achieve constant regret on partial states depending on the task similarity and retain near-optimal regret when the two tasks are dissimilar, while for the low-tier task, it can keep near-optimal without making sacrifice. Moreover, we further study the setting with multiple low-tier tasks, and propose a novel transfer source selection mechanism, which can ensemble the information from all low-tier tasks and allow provable benefits on a much larger state-action space.

Existing online learning algorithms for adversarial Markov Decision Processes achieve $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{T})$ regret after $T$ rounds of interactions even if the loss functions are chosen arbitrarily by an adversary, with the caveat that the transition function has to be fixed. This is because it has been shown that adversarial transition functions make no-regret learning impossible. Despite such impossibility results, in this work, we develop algorithms that can handle both adversarial losses and adversarial transitions, with regret increasing smoothly in the degree of maliciousness of the adversary. More concretely, we first propose an algorithm that enjoys $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{T} + C^{P})$ regret where $C^{P}$ measures how adversarial the transition functions are and can be at most $\mathcal{O}(T)$. While this algorithm itself requires knowledge of $C^{P}$, we further develop a black-box reduction approach that removes this requirement. Moreover, we also show that further refinements of the algorithm not only maintains the same regret bound, but also simultaneously adapts to easier environments (where losses are generated in a certain stochastically constrained manner as in [Jin et al. 2021]) and achieves $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(U + \sqrt{UC^{L}} + C^{P})$ regret, where $U$ is some standard gap-dependent coefficient and $C^{L}$ is the amount of corruption on losses.